NBA Basketball Picks: April 16th 2012
Miami Heat vs. New Jersey Nets
Pick: New Jersey Nets +8.5
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The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value Monday as an 8.5 point home underdog to the Miami Heat. While New Jersey has already been eliminated from playoff contention, the Nets will have no problem getting up emotionally to face a team like the Heat.

The Nets have shown that they aren’t going to just pack it in. New Jersey has gone 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They’re clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now. The picked up a big 95-89 road win at Philadelphia just three nights ago.

Miami is 3.5 games back of Chicago in the Eastern Conference playoff race for the No. 1 seed with seven games to go. The Heat realize that realistically they don’t have a shot at catching the Bulls. That could set them up for a letdown spot here.

This is a tired Heat team right now. Miami will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Bet New Jersey Monday.

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NBA Predictions: April 15th 2012
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Orlando Magic -8
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Following one of their worst losses of the season, the Orlando Magic are highly motivated for a win tonight in Cleveland. The Magic lost 81-109 at home to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, and there’s no question they are steaming about it. I look for them to take out their frustration on the Cavaliers in this one.

Orlando has been excellent at bouncing back from bad losses all year. After an 83-97 home loss to Chicago on 1/6, Orlando came out their next game and won at Sacramento 104-97. After a 56-87 loss at Boston on 1/23, they came back with a 102-83 win at Indiana. After an 84-100 loss at Charlotte on 3/6, they came back with a 99-94 win at Chicago. After a 59-85 loss to Chicago on 3/19, they came back with a 103-93 home win over Phoenix.

The Cavaliers are running on fumes right now. This will be their 3rd game in 3 days, and their 5th game in 6 days. I’ll go against teams that are in this situation almost every single time. Cleveland is not a very deep team because of injuries to three of their best players in Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gibson and Anderson Varejao. I believe Cleveland simply runs out of gas tonight.

The Magic are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cavaliers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games, including 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Orlando is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 meetings with Cleveland. Bet the Magic Sunday.

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Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Betting Line: Texas Rangers -160 Over/Under 8.5 (April 14th 2012)
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Betting Trends:
Twins are 19-39 in their last 58 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Twins are 20-47 in their last 67 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Twins are 17-41 in their last 58 during game 2 of a series.
Twins are 8-21 in their last 29 Saturday games.
Rangers are 9-1 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Rangers are 22-4 in their last 26 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Rangers are 21-5 in their last 26 games as a road favorite.
Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
Rangers are 59-19 in their last 78 games as a favorite.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 9-2-1 in Twins last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 13-3-1 in Twins last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. American League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Blackburns last 6 starts vs. Rangers.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
Rangers are 18-39 in the last 57 meetings in Minnesota.
Rangers are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings.

Rangers Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

Twins Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

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MLB Predictions: April 14th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles -136
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The Dodgers are off to a fantastic start, and I like them to keep rolling behind Ted Lilly. The southpaw has absolutely owned the Padres. He’s 10-4 (11-5 on the ML) in 16 career starts against San Diego with an ERA of 2.37. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Lilly’s last 6 starts vs. the Padres.

The Padres are just 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-14 in their last 18 road games. They are 6-18 in the last 24 meetings with the Dodgers and 0-7 in the last 7 road meetings in the series.

The Dodgers are 18-5 in their last 23 home games, 25-7 in their last 32 games as a home favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. We’ll take the Dodgers.

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Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Betting Line: New York Yankees -123 Over/Under 9.5 (April 14th 2012)
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Betting Trends:
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Angels are 14-4 in their last 18 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Angels are 38-15 in their last 53 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Angels are 5-2 in their last 7 Saturday games.
Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 2-0-2 in Yankees last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 3-0-2 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 9-3 in Angels last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
Angels are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

Angels Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

Yankees Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Betting Line: St. Louis Cardinals -200 Over/Under 8 (April 14th 2012)
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Betting Trends:
Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Cardinals are 12-3 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.
Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cubs are 18-37 in their last 55 games as a road underdog.
Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 overall.
Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 games on grass.
Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games following a loss.
Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 on grass.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Cubs are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis.

Cubs Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

Cardinals Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Betting Prediction: Under 6 goals -110 odds (April 13th 2012)
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Nice start to the NHL playoffs. I’ve gone 2-0 with my premium (guarnateed) plays while also going 2-0 with free plays. After a win with LA over Vancouver Wednesday, I came back with an underdog winner on San Jose over St. Louis yesterday. Today’s complimentary total also offers the chance to get more back than we wagered.

In other words, we’re able to get “plus money” on the “under 6″ for this game. While the first game was indeed high-scoring (4-3 Flyers in OT) I feel that’s providing us with excellent value. With all due respect to these offenses, in my humble opinion, I feel that’s simply too high for a playoff game.

While the Pens have certainly been a high-scoring team, keep in mind that the “under” is stil 4-1-1 when the Flyers have played a road game with an O/U line of six, 13-7-2 their last 22 in that situation.

Four of six regular season meetings produced six or fewer goals. I feel this one has a better chance of finishing with less than six than I do with more than six goals. That being the case, this price provides value. Consider the Under.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Over 196.5 (April 12th 2012)
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Bottom Line: These two haven’t combined for more than 177 points in any of this season’s 3 meetings. In other words, odds makers are begging for action on the under here, but we won’t bite. Both teams played last night and it is usually the defense that suffers in the second game of a back-to-back. Memphis has been an unders machine lately. However, playing the Over on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) that have gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, provided they have won between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, has produced a 32-11 mark the last 5 seasons. We’ve seen an average posted total of 194.0 in these games but have seen an average total score of 204.3 points. The Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two in San Antonio. The Over is also 10-1 in the Spurs’ last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the Over.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers -7 (April 12th 2012)
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This may seem like a big number to lay on the Clippers at Minnesota tonight, especially after their huge win in Oklahoma City last night, where they rallied late to win 100-98. However, the Clippers are fighting to keep hold of the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference playoff race. They are just a .5-game ahead of the Grizzlies and are just 1.5-games behind the Lakers for the No. 3 spot. Making sure you get home court in the playoffs is a big deal, and this is a game the Clippers simply can’t afford to lose.

The Timberwolves showed some great improvement this season, and weren’t that far from the No. 8 spot before losing seven straight, which included a 107-113 loss at Denver last night. Minnesota has no reason to get excited to play and makings matters even worse, Kevin Love is expected to miss this game with a head injury.

I’ll take my chances on a team that is fighting for playoff seeding over a team that just wants the season to be over pretty much every time, especially when the other team is missing one of the best players in the entire NBA.

The Clippers 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Minnesota is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. BET THE CLIPPERS!

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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Betting Odds: New York Yankees -180 Over/Under 8.5 (April 11th 2012)
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Betting Trends:
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games.
Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss.
Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +151 to +200.
Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Yankees are 111-50 in their last 161 Wednesday games.
Yankees are 41-20 in their last 61 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 3-0-1 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 3-0-1 in Orioles last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 home games.
Under is 6-0-1 in Yankees last 7 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Baltimore.
Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Yankees are 7-0 in Sabathias last 7 road starts vs. Orioles.
Yankees are 11-1 in Sabathias last 12 starts vs. Orioles.
Over is 5-1 in Sabathias last 6 road starts vs. Orioles.
Under is 4-1 in Arrietas last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
Yankees are 39-12 in the last 51 meetings.
Yankees are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Baltimore.
Over is 7-3-1 in Sabathias last 11 starts vs. Orioles.

Orioles Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

Yankees Last 5 Games
Date – Opponent – Result/Time – Record – Win/Loss – Save

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