Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Betting Pick: Cincinnati -117 betting line (June 11th 2014)
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After dropping the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I look for the Cincinnati Reds to come out highly motivated tonight to get a victory in Game 3. I really like their chances of getting back in the win column with their ace on the mound.
Johnny Cueto has been one of the most underrated starters in the game over the last few seasons. The right-hander went 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 2011, 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA in 2012, and 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA in an injury-shortened 2013 season.
Cueto has carried over his success into 2014, going 5-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in 13 starts. He is also 3-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.717 WHIP in seven home starts this season, and he has posted a 3.19 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven career starts against Los Angeles.
The Reds are 68-26 in their last 94 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Cincinnati is 9-2 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Reds are 11-0 in Cueto’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 22-6 in Cueto’s last 28 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Reds Wednesday.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Detroit -149 betting line (June 11th 2014)
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Verlander has struggled lately, but the majority of the struggles have come outside division play. The Tigers are 45-21 in his last 66 starts versus American League Central foes, and they have been dominant against the White Sox with him on the mound. The Tigers are 14-3 in Verlander’s last 17 starts versus the White Sox, including 6-1 in Chicago during this span. It is also worth noting that the Tigers have won five of Verlander’s six road starts this season. Danks has been pretty good lately, but we can’t ignore the fact the White Sox are 8-22 in his last 30 starts, 3-10 in his last 13 starts versus the American League Central and 1-11 in his last 12 starts in the second game of a series. We also can’t ignore the struggles he’s had with Detroit. He has a 5.18 ERA in 20 starts against the Tigers, and the Sox are 3-8 in his last 11 starts against them. Take the Tigers.
Dave is picking up steam on the bases, cashing again yesterday with the Royals +103. He has MLB streaks of 3-0, 4-1 (80%), 10-5 (67%) & 11-6 (65%) in progress! Of course his long-term numbers are far more impressive. Consider that he’s a RIDICULOUS 232-149 (61%) his L381 MLB 7* Top Plays ($1,000/game investors up $41,180 with this run). Dave’s also a DOMINANT 24-7 (77%) his L31 Game/Total of the Week/Month/Year releases, and his 7* 22-0 NL GAME OF THE MONTH leads the charge in his Humpday *DOUBLE PLAY*! His ONE & ONLY 7* NBA PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR is up too!
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Arizona +111 odds (June 11th 2014)
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Arizona (McCarthy) @ Houston (Keuchel)—–I like the DBacks in this game as an underdog.
They are leading the NL with a .309 BA/ .514 SLG% the last 7 days. Goldschmidt and Montero are on fire with 6 homeruns and 19 RBI over the last week and I feel the DBacks are a live dog with an offense that his scoring 6.7 runs a game the last 7 days. They are hitting .278 on the season vs. left-handed starters, scoring 4.8 runs per game. I will remind you that Arizona torched lefty Clayton Kershaw for 7 runs in a game last month and Keuchel is a southpaw as well and there is potential for him to get rocked as well.
The Dbacks will have McCarthy on the mound who has a 1-8 record on the season and not many bettors will even give him a shot of winning tonight. But looking closer, McCarthy has a 29/4 K/BB mark in his last 7 starts and is a groundball pitcher with a 141 GB/ 109 FB mark on the season. The only Astro player that has ever seen McCarthy before is Dexter Fowler. I will give McCarthy the advantage as he has the edge since the Astros really don’t know what to expect from him. I will also note that McCarthy has had 4 starts this season where he has allowed 2 ER or fewer.
The Astros will have their ace Keuchel on the rubber, but I want to fade him the same way I did when he was installed as a favorite on 5/31 vs. Baltimore as the Orioles won the game 4-1. Keuchel is a strong pitcher, but I feel he nor the Astros are ready to be inserted as a favorite quite yet. Houston is 2-3 on the season as a home favorite, while the D’Backs are 10-6 as a road dog of +100 to +150. Looking closer, the Astros are 0-4 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts as a favorite, and are 0-4 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts vs. the NL west.
Arizona is now 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog and are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Historically, Arizona has owned the Astros in the past as they are 10-1 the last 11 meetings in Houston and are 21-5 the last 26 meetings overall.
Play on Arizona Diamondbacks on the Money Line
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay +125 betting line (June 10th 2014)
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The Rays are showing solid value as a home underdog in Tuesday’s interleague showdown against the Cardinals. There’s no denying the Rays have been in a major funk of late, but there’s too much talent for this team to keep playing this poorly.
While the Cardinals will send out their ace in Adam Wainwright, they have not performed well in this spot. St Louis has lost 5 straight series openers, are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Tampa Bay is 8-2 in their last 10 interleague home games against a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last 5 against the NL Central. Road teams after allowing 1 run or less 2 straight games against opponent after getting shut out 2 straight games are just 11-27 since 1997. That’s a 71% system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!
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Italy vs. England
Soccer Pick: Draw +200 betting odds (June 14th 2014)
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The Lions have a great deal of heart, hunger, desire, and a team spirit unmatched in all of football. The English also have tactical and technical abilities as well, but have a tendency to play direct football. As most know , key words in world cup soccer for England always seems to center around- bad luck. Meanwhile, Cesare Prandelli has helped revolutionize the way the Italians on a international level approach a game and the style of play that is being implemented. The Azzurri put a great deal of emphasis on ball control and possession , and quite often field four playmakers in a diamond formation. Alot of young players with speed are used in attacking positions – but that inexperience in the final stages of a game means Italy will instead be prone to depend to heavily on the Juventus-inspired backline. With that said, Im expecting and betting on this being a hard fought affair, with the English (as per usual) missing key opportunities at the most importune time, and the Italians to continue to do all the right things except when it comes to finishing.
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Prediction: Nationals +128 odds (June 10th 2014)
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Washington (Fister) @ San Fran (Bumgarner-L)—–I like the Nationals in this game tonight as they go up against the southpaw Madison Bumgarner. The Nationals are now 8-2 SU their last 10 games and will have Doug Fister on the mound where the Nats are a PERFECT 5-0 in his last 5 team starts. Fister comes into this game with a 28K/ 2B mark on the season which tells me he is in great from with a 0.98 WHIP. What I also like about Fister he that he is a dominant ground-ball pitcher which is supported by his 65/51 Ground-ball/Fly-Ball ratio. The only Giant that has seen Fister is Michael Morse and I tend to give the advantage to the pitcher when facing hitters for the first time.
The Giants will call on Bumgarner who has a 2.68 ERA on the season, but looking closer his ERA is 4.94 at home with a 1.54 WHIP. San Fran is actually only 1-4 in Bumgarner’s last 5 team starts vs. the Nationals also, including 0-2 last year. He has a 2.65 career ERA vs. the Nats but just has bad luck in trying to find a way to get the win. I will also note that the Giants are 2-7 in Bumgarner’s last 9 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. That goes well with the fact that Washington is 8-3 in their last 11 games when the total is set at 6.5 or lower.
Washington is hitting .273 as a team the last 7 games with a .469 SLG%. They are 9-6 on the season vs. left handed starters, hitting .290 and scoring 4.8 runs a game. Desmond and Rendon are on fire and Desmond is 4-for-12 career vs. Bumgarner while Rendon is 1-for-2 career with a 2B vs. Bumgarner.
We want to play against all Home teams with a ML of -100 to -150 after allowing 9 runs or more against any opponent after two straight wins by 6 runs or more as this situation is 50-28 (64%) .
Play on Washington Nationals on the Money Line
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Reds -105 betting line (June 9th 2014)
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The Cincinnati Reds get the call as a small home favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday. The Dodgers are only hitting .214 and scoring 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and they’ll have to deal with southpaw Tony Cingrani tonight.
Cingrani hasn’t gotten off to the best start this season, going 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA, but he is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in five home starts. Also, the left-hander went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP as a rookie last year, so he’s still one of the best young starters in the game. Cingrani pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 11 in his lone career start against Los Angeles on July 28 last season.
Dan Haren comes in overvalued at 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA this season. The right-hander had gone 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA with the Angels in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA with the Nationals in 2013. He has overachieved thus far in 2014, while Cingrani has underachieved. Haren is 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career starts against Cincinnati.
Haren is 1-10 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Haren’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 67-31 in their last 98 when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Reds Monday.
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MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins +160
The Twins are showing great value as a huge road underdog against the Blue Jays on Monday. There’s no denying that Toronto has been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month, but they come in having not scored a single run in two straight losses. While Minnesota allowed 14 runs in yesterday’s 9-run defeat to the Astros, that actually sets the Twins up in a favorable spot to rebound. Any team after allowing 12 runs or more against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 straight games are 95-53 since 1996. That’s a 64% system telling in favor of the Twins! Another key factor here is that Toronto starter R.A. Dickey has not had a lot of success against the Twins. Dickey is just 1-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over 6 career starts. In his only start versus Minnesota this season, Dickey allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks over just 4 1/3 innings of a 0-7 defeat. Take the Twins! -Jimmy Boyd
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MLB Pick: Washington Nationals -117
I’m recommending a play on the Washington Nationals on Monday night. Two hot teams and two hot pitchers matchup in this one, but we believe the Nats own the advantage with Strasburg over Vogelsong. The Washington hurler has enjoyed his starts against the Giants, while the San Francisco right-hander has been smacked for a 5.59 ERA in seven starts against the Nationals. Normally, the Giants own an advantage over their opponents in the pen, but not against the Nats. The gang from D.C. actually ranks #1 in bullpen ERA, while the Giants are #2. The Nationals enter on a 48-18 run as road chalk and they’re on a 15-6 run when Strasburg takes the bump. And after tonight, I believe they’re be 9-4 in their last 13 against the Giants. I’m recommending a play on the Nationals on Monday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Los Angeles Kings vs. New York Rangers
Betting Pick: Rangers -127 line (June 9th 2014)
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The Free NHL Play is on The NY. Rangers. Game 56 at 8:05 eastern. The Rangers have led just about every minute in regulation in the series but return home after a pair of disappointing losses. In NHL History Three teams have lost Games 1-2 of a best-of-7 NHL Finals on the road but won the series: the 1971 Montreal Canadiens over the Chicago Blackhawks; the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins over the Detroit Red Wings; the 2011 Boston Bruins over the Vancouver Canucks. So the series can still be competitive and the Rangers should be energized by what will be a raucous crowd. The historical grid below shows that Game 3 teams off back to back road losses tend to bounce back. New York knows the importance of this game and will primed for a complete 60 minute effort and get one back here at home tonight. Look for the Rangers to win game 3. On Monday we have 3 Big MLB Plays up all are from Perfect league wide systems direct from the MLB Database. Two are totals that are averaging over 11 runs. MLB Cashing big again this season, our top 6* NBA play cashes with Miami. Jump on now and Start the week big. For the Free NHL Game 3 play take The NY. Rangers. RV