College Basketball Picks: January 2nd 2013
Davidson vs. Duke
Prediction: Davidson +13.5
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Ryan is on a solid 18-10 ATS run with his 25* College Hardwood releases good for 64.3% ATS winners. His upset alerts are special situations in that he includes a method he calls a combination bet using the line and money lines together for maximum profit. Featured is a remarkable 10-1 ATS game situation.
10* graded play on the Davidson as they take on Duke set to start at 7:00 PM ET on the College Hardwood. The simulator shows a high probability that Davidson will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Duke may be No. 1 in the nation, but Davidson has returned all five starters and is a significant favorite to win the Southern Conference. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-29 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2006. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins and is undefeated on the season. This system simply is a reflection of what I call ‘public irrational exuberance’. The line for this game is inflated because Duke is No.1 and undefeated and facing a team that with a 7-5 record appears to have no chance to even stay within 20 points of Duke. When a storied program like Duke gets on a run, there is a steady stream of public backers making the bandwagon all the bigger. This forces the linesmaker to adjust the line to accommodate the anticipation of more bets being placed on Duke with each pass win. This is exactly what helps create the opportunity we have before us tonight in taking Davidson.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
NBA Betting Prediction: Dallas Mavericks +10.5
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The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They are undervalued due to losing six of their last seven games overall, but all six of those losses came to the top playoff contenders in the Heat, Grizzlies, Thunder, Nuggets and Spurs (twice).
Dallas certainly wants revenge from its 95-110 home loss to the Heat on December 20th. It catches the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season coming in. They have lost two out of their last three to Detroit (99-109) as a 6-point favorite, and to Milwaukee (85-104) as a 4-point favorite. Their only win during this stretch came in overtime against Orlando (112-110) as a 9.5-point favorite.
The Mavericks are 30-13 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams – scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 42-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series. Dallas is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 trips to Miami. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
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Check out Steve Janus’ analysis of the Heat vs. Mavericks game at Handicapperspicks.com by clicking here.
NFL Playoffs Predictions: January 5th 2013
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5
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Looking at this weekend’s first round NFL playoff action I like taking the Bengals + 4 ½ points taking on the Houston Texans.The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will lose this game by fewer than three points. Given these projections I like splitting the 10* amount to be played into a 7* play on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. After 8 weeks of play, the Bengals were just 3-5 and many had written them off as having any chance for playoff contention. They have won 7-of-8 games and covered all of them, except the lone 20-19 loss to Dallas in game that should have won too. Houston is not playing well and have limped into the playoffs losers of three-of-four games. Their ground attack has steadily declined and it has forced Shaub to make far too many plays to move the chains and score points. Bengals defense ranks fifth allowing 4.9 YPP and I strongly believe they will shut down the Texans ground game. When Shaub does not have play action in his arsenal, he, like every NFL QB, is going to be pressured a ton. I like the Bengals for a 10* unit play. Get more NFL Playoffs predictions at our partner sites, Handicapperspicks.com and Accuwager.com.
Ryan has posted a 70-42-1 ATS mark in All Sports for 63% ATS winners. After going 2-4 ATS the past two days with his 25* Bowl Titans, he is just 9-7 ATS for the Bowl Season. If ever there was a time to tail his Bowl releases it is now – right before the winning streak starts.
Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl Pick: Stanford -5 (January 1st 2013)
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10* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by seven or more points. Sim also shows that Stanford will gain between 200 and 250 net passing yards. In past games, they are 4-0 ATS this season, 11-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained this range of net passing yards. Stanford is projected to gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. In past games, Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 350 to 400 yards. Stanford is off a close win over UCLA in the PAC-12 Championship game. Stanford is a solid 16-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Cardinal is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when facing strong offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Take Stanford.
This is just a sample of the comprehensive research Ryan provides you for every play. The research explains why he is making this play and provides you with intelligent betting methods. He has THREE 25* Bowl Titans set to start your 2013 in a very profitable way.
NCAA Basketball Picks: December 31st 2012
NC Greensboro vs. NC State
Prediction: NC Greensboro +23
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This is Ryan’s third 25* Bowl game release for New Year’s Eve + he is hitting 70% ATS winners w/his 25* Titans in this current Bowl Season. As you have come to expect, Ryan always shows you the extensive facts why he is releasing this play to you. This game features a ton of game situations + Bonus 10* play on the Total.
10* graded play on the UNC-Greensboro as they take on NC State in College Hardwood action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Greensboro will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and now facing an opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Of course this is a mismatch on paper, but NC State has not done well ATS when facing inferior teams. They sport an imperfect 0-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons. The line is inflated simply because of the ‘flash stats’ showing how poorly Greensboro has done and that NC State is ranked No. 23 in the nation. It is just far too many points given the situation and that State has no reason to make a fool of their state rival. State has used their bench far more in games like this one as a way to make the overall team stronger as they enter the January conference games that matter for more than this ‘scrimmage’. Take Greensboro to compete well enough to keep this game between 10 and 20 points.
Michigan vs. South Carolina
Bowl Game Pick: South Carolina -5.5 (January 1st 2013)
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This Big Ten vs. the SEC match up is an interesting one and checks in at #5 on my Top Bowls To Watch countdown. It happens on New Years day and will be going on at the same time as the other Big Ten vs. SEC match up between Georgia and Nebraska where we also have a premium college pick on. For Michigan it is their chance at redemption after getting dominated and embarrassed to open the season against an SEC team that is now playing in the National Championship. South Carolina meanwhile had a relatively easy non-conference schedule, but did beat ACC Clemson to close out the year in impressive fashion. Let’s take a closer look at each team’s strategy.
South Carolina’s Scheme
The Gamecocks were 36th in rushing play percentage even though Steve Spurrier would prefer to throw the ball. They lost Marcus Lattimore to a dramatic injury half way through the year, but continued to run the ball anyway. They got a unique QB in Connor Shaw that can throw and run the ball, but this team is built on their defense. You can’t really knock the Gamecocks this year their only losses were on the road against LSU and Florida.
Their defense is balanced and can stop any team in the red zone, on third down and dominates against the pass and the rush. Though they don’t face many teams that pass in the SEC this team showed how dominant they can be against a team that has weapons like Clemson to close out the year. Jadeveon Clowney, only a sophomore leads the way with 13 sacks and it will be interesting to see how Michigan schemes their offense.
Well it is no secret that this team prefers to keep the ball on the ground ranked 19th in rushing play %. That’s is because they too do not have a QB that can throw the ball. They’ll go up against South Carolina team that is 6th allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season and only two teams averaged more than 3.42 yards per carry on them and that was Clemson and LSU. Michigan will have a hard time doing the same in this game with inexperienced Devin Gardner behind center.
Gardner took over for an injured Denard Robinson and remained the starter to close the year. He’ll get the start but do not sleep on the Wolverines to pull out some trickery to get points against a stout defense that also can stop any sort of passing game with their #2 sack % rank. Be sure to purchase Freddy Will’s premium bowl picks on January 1st 2013.
Take South Carolina -5.5 1.65* FREE PLAY
I’m on the Gamecocks. I’m confident the SEC style of defense will allow South Carolina to get the win. The biggest difference will be turnover margin and that is the reason I see South Carolina winning big. They won 3 games to close out the season already knowing they were going bowling and to me that says a lot about the mental make up of this team that defeated a very similar Nebraska team in their bowl game last year 30-13. I think Connor Shaw will have a big day running and throwing leading to an easy victory.
Nebraska vs. Georgia
Bowl Game Pick: Georgia -8 (January 1st 2013)
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The Bulldogs were just one loss to Alabama away from playing for a National Championship. This team is the real deal, and they played their best football down the stretch. They won their final six games during the regular season to capture the SEC East title with their final four victories all coming by 27 or more points.
Nebraska has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. Time and time again it escaped with close victories in the final seconds of games. Five of its 10 wins came by 9 points or less, and the other five were against Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Idaho State, Michigan (without Denard Robinson) and Minnesota.
The Cornhuskers were finally exposed in the Big Ten Championship, falling 31-70 to Wisconsin. They gave up a ridiculous 640 total yards to the Badgers, including 539 on the ground. There’s no question that Georgia is the more talented team with the better athletes, and the Huskers will have trouble keeping up because of it. Jack Jones has some of his TOP bowl game picks going on January 1st 2013. Don’t miss out!!
Nebraska is 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where it forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Georgia is 7-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where it committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 19.8 points per game. Bet Georgia in the Capital One Bowl Tuesday.
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Week 17 NFL Picks: December 30th 2012
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Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens vs. Bengals Under 41
The Ravens enter the battle with a 10-5 SU record, while the Bengals fresh off their upset of Pittsburgh land at 9-6 SU. Against the spread Cincinnati brings a higher margin of financial success with an 8-6-1 ATS mark. They have covered 6 of 7 after their Steelers money earner. Winning (33-14 NYG) last week the Ravens brought home another AFC North title. They have ravaged opponents for 381 points this season and look to surpass their all time record performance. However, the Bengals are jelling late in the season and own a 5-2 SU mark at home in this series. In week #1 Baltimore crushed Cincy 44-13, so REVENGE is a viable antidote. The defense has been the keynote session for the Bengals restricting the opposition to just 12.1 points per game over the last 7 weeks. So, I believe the Ravens offensive keys won’t be there this week as in their route of the Giants. We look for a low scoring game in a classic Eastern battle on the last weekend of the season. FORECAST: Under 41.5 -Brad Diamond
Don’t miss out on all of our handicappers week 17 NFL picks this Sunday. Simply check out our expert sports picks page above to view our current hot streaks
Week 17 NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Cincinnati has really turned things around this season, going 6-1 over their last seven games, including a big win last week over the Pittsburgh Steelers that locked up the sixth seed in the AFC. The team’s only loss during that stretch was to the Dallas Cowboys and came on a last second field goal to lose by a single point. Baltimore on the other hand is headed the opposite direction. Sure they beat the NY Giants last week but in the three weeks prior were a home loss to Pittsburgh without Big Ben, at Washington, and a 17 point defeat at home to the Denver Broncos. The only thing I don’t love about this game is that it doesn’t mean anything to Cincinnati. Sure, if they win they can claim a share of the division title, and that might mean something to a team with such a poor history, but they can’t move up to the five seed. Without knowing their motivation and if they will rest their starters for the playoffs, I’m only going to play this one for action. -Jimmy Boyd
Purdue vs. Oklahoma State
Prediction: Oklahoma State -17 (January 1st 2012)
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It’s going to be tough for the Boilermakers to stop the Cowboys here today and it’s going to also be difficult for them to keep pace with that high amount of scoring.
Oklahoma State started the season with a 84-0 drubbing of Savannah State and kept pouring on points all season long, averaging 44 for the season. They went under 30 only one time and that was back on 10/13.
Purdue on the other hand has only eclipsed the 30 point barrier once since the start of October, and that was against Indiana in the regular season finale. Purchase Jimmy Boyd’s premium bowl game picks on January 1st 2013
The Boilermakers were second to last in the Big Ten with 407 yards per game allowed, while Oklahome State ranked 7th in passing with 333.4 ypg through the air.
The Cowboys lost as a favorite in Baylor to end their season, but that sets them up for a 9-1 ATS situation when they are coming off a loss. Lay the big number early as Oky State rolls.
***FIVE New Year’s Day Bowl picks are now posted, including our 5* Total NO BRAINER and our 4* Main Event Major!***
College Bowl Game Picks: December 29th 2012
Navy vs. Arizona State
Prediction: Navy +14
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The Navy Midshipmen are one of the hottest teams in the country entering their bowl game. They have won seven of their last eight games overall for a very strong finish to the regular season. This run can be attributed to a change at quarterback, which has made a world of difference for this team. Don’t miss out on Jack Jones premium bowl game picks for December 29th 2012
Freshman Keenan Reynolds took over in the Air Force game and led Navy to a 28-21 comeback victory in overtime. He has held on to the job ever since, and he gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback that teams really have to prepare even more for. Reynolds is completing 57.7 percent of his passes for 884 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 628 yards and 10 scores.
This play falls into a system that is 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) – off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record.
Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992. The Sun Devils are 1-9 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1992. Arizona State is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 bowl games. Bet Navy Saturday.
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