Kansas Jayhawks vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Pick: Kansas -5 points (January 28th 2015)
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The Jayhawks are showing some excellent value here laying just 5-points on the road against the Horned Frogs. TCU has opened up just 1-5 in the Big 12 after going a perfect 13-0 in non-conference play. The Horned Frogs only win has come against Texas Tech, who is also sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 standings with just 1 conference win.
Some might view this as a bit of a trap game for Kansas, as they come in off a road win against rival Texas and have a showdown against in-state rival Kansas State on deck Saturday. I’m not too worried about that, as I think the Jayhawks could win here by more than 5-points even without their best effort.
Kansas has won each of the last 3 meetings by at least 21 points, including a 91-69 win in their last visit to TCU. The Jayhawks were a 14.5-point favorite in that matchup and have been a double-digit favorite in each of the last 6 meetings. I just think the Horned Frogs are getting way too much respect from their 14-5 record and the fact that they are fresh off a cover as a 10.5-point underdog at West Virginia.
Kansas is 11-3 ATS over the last two seasons in the month of January and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a conference road win. TCU is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games when listed as an underdog, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference home games and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after losing at least 5 of their last 7 games.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Horned Frogs. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close loss by 3-points, 15+ games into the season, are just 16-44 ATS since 1997 in a game involving two strong offensive teams (67-74 ppg). That’s a 73% system in favor of the Jayhawks. Take Kansas!
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