Cleveland Indians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Pick: Cleveland -115 odds (May 14th 2013)
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Doc’s Sports Tuesday MLB Pick for May 14th 2013. Action from the NBA, MLB, & NHL coming on Tuesday!

Free MLB Play from Doc’s Sports Take #975 Cleveland Indians (-115) over Philadelphia Phillies (Tuesday 7:05pm ET) Not too many people believed in him, but Scott Kazmir has officially made his comeback to the major leagues. After missing the better part of the last two seasons with major injuries and rehab, the hard throwing left-hander dazzled the Oakland A’s in his last start to the tune of 10 strikeouts and no walks while giving up only one run in six innings of work. Not all of his starts have been that good, but you can see the strength and confidence coming back in each outing. No one thought he’d get his velocity up this quickly, but he’s now throwing in the mid-90’s after struggling to hit 90 on the gun in spring at times. This is great news for the Tribe as they need another good arm in the rotation that can give them quality innings. Kazmir will face a Phillies team today that doesn’t hit lefties very well, so he’ll have another chance to dominate today. The Phillies counter with right-handed rookie Jonathan Pettibone. The 22-year old has looked pretty good in his four starts in 2013, but he struggled in last outing yielding four walks with only one strikeout. He also hasn’t faced anyone with a lineup nearly as potent as the Indians, so he’ll need to raise his game up a level. I don’t like the travel spot here for Cleveland as they had to play two last night and then fly into Philadelphia for this series. But I think we have enough of an edge in the matchup to still warrant a play. I made the line on this game Indians -130, so there is value on the Tribe today.

MLB Predictions: May 13th 2013
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Prediction: Washington Nationals -123
The struggling Dodgers took the last two games in the Miami (11-27) series to right their poor May start of eight straight losses. Only there is a major issue on the horizon the Washington Nationals (20-17) come to visit this evening. Washington has won 7-of-10, off back-to-back road losses to the Cubbies. The Nationals are just one game behind first place Atlanta in the east. The Dodgers start Monday 6 ½ games behind San Francisco in the west. Usually, I look for reasons to play against traveling units on an extended road trip when hitting LA and SF to start a Monday set. However, can’t recommend the Dodgers because of the down cycle found in hurler Josh Beckett’s (5+ ERA) control up in the zone. He has given up 8 home runs this season. That’s 2.10 home runs per nine innings of work. With hurler Zimmerman on the hill the Nationals have won 6-of-7 this year. We realize Beckett is 7-2 LT vs. Washington, but I like some of the other techs in the game, including the Dodgers going 0-7 against the last seven winning units…WASHINGTON! -Brad Diamond

Prediction: Chicago White Sox -116
The White Sox are a strong value play when they face an overrated Minnesota Twins team. Hector Santiago has been unbelievable for Chicago posting a 1.69 ERA in 9 games this season. For Minnesota Pedro Hernandez will take the mound and he brings with him an 8.03 ERA in his last 3 starts to go along with a 2.109 WHIP. To say Chicago has a favorable advantage would be a gross understatement.

The Twins may have a winning record overall this season, but they have not performed well against division opponents. They average 3.4 runs per game with a .224 batting average in their 14 division games. While their .272 batting average against left handed starters may seem impressive, teams are batting .306 against them and scoring 7.7 runs per game in those games. The White Sox are the smart play in this game because Minnesota is going to struggle to get on base against Santiago. -Jimmy Boyd

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Prediction: Colorado Rockies +111
The Cubs took 2 of 3 from Washington over the weekend, but I don’t feel they are worthy of the respect they’re getting from oddsmakers here. They are 9-23 in their last 32 games following a win, 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Woods has pitched well this season, but the Cubs 3-10 in his last 13 home starts and 1-7 in his last 8 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Plus, he’s 0-2 on the money line in a pair of starts versus Colorado. The Rockies have won 3 of Nicasio’s 4 road starts this season. Also, they have won 4 of 5 and 7 of 10 versus the Cubs. Take the Rockies. -Dave Price

Prediction: Atlanta Braves -101
A pair of nice southpaws take the hill for the Braves and D-backs tonight, but the Braves have the edge because they have fared better against lefties. The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a left-handed starter and are scoring 4.6 runs per game off them this season while hitting them at a .253 clip. Miley has made one start against the Braves, and he was lit up for 5 runs in 4 innings of an 8-1 defeat. Arizona is scoring just 3.8 runs per game this season against southpaw starters while hitting them at a .238 clip. Minor has made one start against the D-backs, and he limited them to 1 earned run in 8 innings of a 10-2 victory. The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 versus Arizona. -Jeff Alexander

Baseball Pick: Washington Nationals -120 odds (May 13th 2013)
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The Washington Nationals get the nod Monday as a small road favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Washington comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won seven of its last 10 games overall. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has lost eight of its last 10.

The Nationals deserve to be a much heavier favorite considering the massive edge they have on the mound. Jordan Zimmermann is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-0 with a miniscule 0.37 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in his last three starts.

Josh Beckett is clearly past his prime and no longer can dominate like he used to. That’s been evident all season as the right-hander is 0-4 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in seven starts, still looking for his first win of 2013.

The Nationals are 10-1 in Zimmermann’s last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 20-6 in Zimmermann’s last 26 starts overall. The Dodgers are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Nationals Monday.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Point Spread: San Antonio -2 Over/Under 197 (May 12th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference. Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific. Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 overall. Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference. Under is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 vs. NBA Southwest. Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 Sunday games. Under is 10-2 in Spurs last 12 road games. Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Spurs are 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. Favorite is 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Over is 15-6-1 in the last 22 meetings in Golden State. Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings. Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

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Baseball Predictions: May 12th 2013
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland A’s -125 odds
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Although we got beat hard on our free MLB picks yesterday as well as our 3* early bird special with the NY Mets, we hit on both of our POD’s with the Yankees +130 and the Memphis Grizzlies and Thunder under giving us a profitable day. Sunday we look for another profitable day starting with our free play which will also be backed by a third party sports monitor. Sunday’s card has just 3 cold starters with a total of 11 pitchers with ERA’s under 3.00 over their last three starts combined. However, I’m able to weed out the guys who are posers and give you guys some value on Mothers Day.

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Hot Pitcher – Take Milone -125 1.25* FREE PLAY
Tommy Milone has posted a 0.92 WHIP and 1.74 ERA over his last three starts without a win to show for it, but I think that changes on Sunday when he faces the Mariners who he has posted a 2.63 ERA against in 6 career starts. Milone has impressive numbers with 8.02 K/9 and 1.17 BB/9 he throws 4 different pitches and mixes them well. He throws his first pitch for a strike 70% of the time and that will do him good against the Mariners who are 28th in swing %. He’s really everything that the opposing pitcher is not and we are getting tremendous value because the stat line shows Joe Saunders is an excellent pitcher at home, but I feel that’s more of a coincidence. The A’s have hit lefties well in fact they are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring more than 2 runs more per 9 innings overall and on the road than the Mariners are overall or at home. They also are backed by a bullpen that’s about a run better in ERA no matter how you split it, but the real advantage for the A’s today is because of Tommy Milone.

Joe Saunders has not pitched well he’s one of a few pitchers who are walking more guys than they are striking out. That’s due to the fact that he’s 77th among starting pitchers in 1st strike % and he’s 110th in swinging strike %. That does not bode well against the A’s who are very patient in fact they are the 2nd most patient team and they don’t swing at much outside the zone. I can see a lot of counts starting 1-0 today and that’s a huge advantage for the Athletics hitters whose active line up has really good numbers against Saunders. Saunders also will be facing the A’s for the second time this year. That has happened twice already this year for Saunders and his second start has not gone well as he’s posted a 13.96 ERA in the second time facing a team this year.

Notable Hot Starters:
Chris Sale (3-0, 21.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.11 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (3-0, 23 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 1.57 ERA)
Matt Harvey (2-1, 20.1, 0.74 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Ryan Dempster (2-1, 19 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Ervin Santana (2-1, 20 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Scott Diamond (2-1, 19.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Scott Feldman (3-0, 22.2 IP, 0.71 WHIP, 1.99 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.25 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
With just three pitchers with ERA’s over 6 over their last three starts there really is not much selection here, but I would go with Wily Peralta at +145 over the Reds. The Reds have only faced him once and he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings while the Brewers will face Bronson Arroyo who they have seen many times before.

Notable Cold Starters:
Rick Procello (2-1, 14 IP, 1.57 WHIP, 9.64 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 19 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 8.05 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Betting Prediction: Philly +106 odds (May 12th 2013)
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This is a comp betting prediction on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies got a win in Arizona last night with Cliff Lee on the mound, and they wrap up the series in Game 4 tonight. It looks like another favorable matchup on the mound for Philadelphia, with Kendrick going up against McCarthy.

Kendrick (4-1, 2.45 ERA) was roughed up in his first start of the season, but since then he’s been nothing short of dominant in six straight starts. He allowed just a pair of runs on six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Giants his last time out. He’s kept the opposition at two runs or fewer in each of his last six starts, and the Phillies have won five of those.

McCarthy (0-3, 6.75 ERA) has allowed a minimum of three runs and eight hits in all seven of his starts this season, a big reason why he’s still looking for his first win. His four starts at home have been worse than his three on the road, and the D’Backs have lost three of those games.

Jimmy Rollins is starting to swing a hot bat, he was 2-for-3 with a couple RBIs yesterday, and he’s 6-for-16 with a home run and three RBIs in his last four games.

“Obviously, you adjust your swing because you’ve got to get a good swing first,” said Rollins “Now that I’m starting to get there, the confidence comes that I can put on the same swing in any situation.”

Take the Phillies.

MLB Predictions: May 11th 2013
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Over 7.5 -110 odds
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The books have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners. I look for a slugfest due to the lack of talent that will be on the mound in this one.

Jarrod Parker has been simply atrocious for Oakland. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.981 WHIP through seven starts this season. Parker has allowed 28 earned runs and 68 base runners over 34 1/3 innings.

Seattle starter Brandon Maurer has only been slightly better, going 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.449 WHIP through six starts in 2013. He has allowed 20 earned runs and 43 base runners over 29 2/3 innings.

Parker is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA in three career starts against Seattle. He has allowed 10 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners. Maurer is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against Oakland.

The OVER is 39-17-2 in Oakland’s last 58 games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Parker’s last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 22-4 in A’s last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 35-15-1 in A’s last 51 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Game 3 Betting Pick: Golden State -2.5 point spread (May 10th 2013)
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How could you not be impressed with the way the Warriors responded in Game 2 after that horrific collapse in Game 1. They now head home for two games with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 advantage. There’s clearly going to be a lot of public money on the Warriors as a small home favorite. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the playoffs and have covered in 11 straight dating back to the regular season. They are an impressive 31-13 at home this year and have clearly looked like the better team.

While I’m not big on backing the public, I think there’s a bit of an overreaction here to the fact that Golden State is favored by a lot of the sharps. There’s really not much of a difference between being a 2.5-point favorite or a 2.5-point underdog.

There was a lot of the same sharp action against the Warriors in their first round series against the Nuggets, when they returned home after a split in Denver as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 3. You can say what you want about the Big 3 of San Antonio, the best player on the floor is Steph Curry and until he shows any signs of slowing down I’m certainly not going to bet against him.

Golden State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. They are also 5-0 ATS when playing on 1 days rest, while the Spurs are a miserable 3-12 ATS over their last 15 games when playing on 1 days rest. BET THE WARRIORS!

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Betting Prediction: Texas Rangers -1.5 -123 odds (May 10th 2013)
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I’m siding with the Texas Rangers on the Run Line Friday as they beat the Houston Astros by two-plus runs. They have a massive edge on the mound in this one, which will lead to a blowout victory.

Alexi Ogando has been brilliant in his move from the bullpen to the rotation this year. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.263 WHIP through seven starts. One of those starts came against Houston on April 3rd as Ogando pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 4-0 Texas victory.

Dallas Keuchel is no more than a spot starter in this league. He’s getting his first start of the season tonight after struggling in the bullpen up to this point. Kuechel has posted a 4.96 ERA and 1.840 WHIP while allowing 13 runs, 9 earned, and 30 base runners over 16 1/3 innings out of the ‘pen in 2013.

Houston is 1-15 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. It is losing in this spot 3.2 to 7.2, or by an average of 4.0 runs/game. Enough said. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line.

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Baseball Picks: May 10th 2013
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami +130 odds
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Jose Fernandez has superstar potential. He displayed it again this past Saturday throwing seven shutout innings on the road against the Phillies with nine strikeouts.

Contrast this with Dodgers starter Matt Magill, who is a desperate fill-in starter. Magill was shelled in his second big league start this past Saturday giving up five runs on six hits in 1 1/3 innings against the Giants.

Not only do the Marlins have a huge edge in starting pitching, but I also like the backend of their bullpen better. Dodgers closer Brandon League is struggling and could be in danger of being removed as the closer.

The key question here is are the Dodgers good enough at the rest of the spots to overcome their pitching disadvantage? I’d say yes – if the Dodgers were playing much better and were healthy. But they are not on either count.

The Dodgers have lost seven in a row. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of those seven defeats. While Miami is last in runs scored, the Dodgers are second from the bottom in that important category.

The Dodgers’ starting middle infield is out, star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn’t likely to play due to a sore neck and Carl Crawford is questionable with a hamstring injury.

(Editor’s note: Vegas pro Stephen Nover has his NBA Game of the Month going and his National League Game of the Week. Stephen is 8-4 on his last 12 NBA plays and has won his last four baseball plays. Stephen’s plays can be purchased individually or as a package.)