The first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors; even those not custom to tackling the daily grind of investing in sports like to get in on all the action. With this year’s field wide open, a number of lesser known teams have shots at becoming the next George Mason and coming from out of nowhere to blow up the betting public’s brackets. Here’s a look at three teams that Touthouse.com believes is capable of stringing together a couple of upsets. 2010 March Madness 1st Round Upset Picks

1) Murray State Racers – When sifting through the brackets and taking a gander at teams from lesser known conferences, it’s imperative to see just how well that team fared against its conference foes. In the case of the Racers, they dominated going 20-1 SU and, and they avenged the lone loss in the OVC Tournament Championship Game by taking out Morehead State 62-51 as four-point favorites. This team covered easily against its only NCAA Tourney qualifier when it went into Berkeley and easily covered the 13.5-point spread falling 75-70 at Cal. This club is highly efficient offensively (#3 at 50.3%) and plays lock down defense evidenced by it allowing an average of 60.5 PPG (#21) and opponents to shoot just 38.6 percent (#11) this season. Unfortunately, the betting public is well aware of this clubs abilities as they currently stand as three-point underdogs after opening up as 4.5-point pups.

2) New Mexico State Aggies – The Aggies punched their ticket to the dance with a solid run in the WAC Tournament that saw them upend Utah State 69-63 as 10-point underdogs in the championship game. While this club lacks much of anything at the defensive end of the court, it can flat out score and shoot form a high percentage from the field. Five players average double-digits in scoring with guards Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson setting the pace with 20.5 and 17.5 PPG respectively. Michigan State has proven to be a much lesser from than from years past. Though it closed out the year with wins in 5 of its L/7 games, all those victories came against B10 teams that aren’t going to any tournaments this season. If their shots and the Aggies compete on the glass, the Spartans could be the victims of yet another 12/5 upset.

3) Utah State Aggies – Many players from last year’s team that suffered a heartbreaking 58-57 Round 1 loss at the hands of the Marquette Golden Eagles are back looking to advance the Aggies into the second round for the first time since the 2000-2001 season. Though they’ll be taking on a gritty Texas A&M club on Friday, Head Coach Stew Morrill’s kids have as good a shot as any of the other 12 seeds to ruin many a bracket this tournament. Saturday night’s loss to the Aggies in the QAC Championship game was the first defeat incurred by this club since January 4th. That’s right! USU won 17 games in a row before ultimately losing, and they went a $$$-making 13-4 ATS during that stretch. This club is highly efficient (#7 at 49.1%) and can flat out stroke it from beyond the arc (#3 at 41.9%). Oh yeah, they also play stellar defense evidenced by its 59.6 PPG allowed on the year (#11). A&M is prone to going into scoring droughts, and if they do so in this spot, the Aggies can turn this one into a laugher!

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The 2010 NCAA Tournament is so wide open making it just as hard predicting who might win these Round 1 match-ups let alone predicting who will cut the nets down in April. The folks on ESPN’s Bracketology program all seem to be enamored with either Kansas or Kentucky, but we at Touthouse.com believe a handful of other squads are fully capable of pulling off the feat. Here’s a look at some of the less popular selections to shock the March Madness betting public. Who will win the 2010 NCAA Tournament?

1) Ohio State Buckeyes (+1200 Click here to Bet) – The Big 10 Tournament champs head into the NCAA Tournament off a sensational 90-61 beat down of the Minnesota Golden Gophers as short 3.5-point favorites. The victory was the teams seventh in a row, and they went 4-3 ATS during that stretch. Head Coach Thad Matta’s club isn’t the deepest in the country, but what it does boast is the nation’s best player in the form of Evan Turner. His 20.3 points per game paced the Buckeyes offensively who rank 5th in FG percentage (49.6%) and 62nd in points scored (74.2 PPG). They’re also very solid defensively allowing an average of just 61.2 points per game, while limiting foes to just 41.1 percent from the field (#68). This club lost most of its games this season when Turner was out with an injury. Since he returned to action, the Buckeyes won 17 of their L/20 games. Look for this #2 seed to make some noise in the Midwest bracket.

2) Kansas State Wildcats (+2000 Click here to Bet) – Yes, the Wildcats came up short once again against in-state rival Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game, but don’t let that loss fool you. Head Coach Frank Martin has a very solid squad at his disposal that clearly has the weapons at hand to make a deep run into this tournament. If you subtract the three losses incurred against the Jayhawks, Kansas State went 26-4 SU on the year. This club was placed in a wide open bracket where we expect a number of crazy things to occur over the next couple weeks. They’re led by a pair of gamers in guard’s Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, and they have the “Bigs” that can match up with some of the best in the country. The gritty Mean Green will fight them to the end, and BYU could present a major task in Round 2, but if they get passed those two we really like their chances against anyone they’ll meet in the Sweet 16 and beyond.

3) Georgetown Hoyas (>+2000 Click here to bet) – All we see is green when looking at the return on Head Coach John Thompson III’s Hoyas! I’ll take what I see to be one of the best teams in the entire field at 20/1 any day of the week! This club was just a couple seconds away from knocking off South Florida, Syracuse, Marquette, and West Virginia in one of the toughest conference’s tournaments this past weekend. The club is highly efficient at the offensive end of the court coming in ranked 4th in FG percentage (49.8%), and it surrenders an average of just 65.1 PPG defensively (#88). With G Austin Freeman leading the scoring charge (16.7 PPG), G Chris Wright chiming in with 14+ and four assists per game, and C Greg Monroe hauling down 9.5 rebounds per game and dominating the paint (1.5 blocks per game), the Hoyas certainly have the recipe to succeed in this Dance.

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When March Madness rolls around, no one is immune to the itch to get in on the action, whether it’s laying down a bet or simply competing in an office pool. Teddy shares his Top 10 NCAA tournament betting strategies in this article.

1) Fade the public teams
While teams in the Top 25 often pique the interest of Joe Public, the smart bettor looks for good spots to bet against favorites. Fading overvalued clubs can make a big difference to your bottom line. You should especially look to go against teams that went all out to win their conference tournament, like Syracuse and Mississippi State this year.

2) Ride the hot, fade the cold
Pay attention to streaks, particularly early in the tournament. When betting on a hot team to continue winning you can profit many times before the streak ends. Betting against streaks, you can only win once.

3) Winning your office pool requires luck
When filling out brackets, the single most important thing is to pick the eventual champion correctly, since the final game is weighted the most. Many office pool players work too much on picking the early round upsets and not enough on their Final Four teams. The vast majority of Final Four teams are top seeded teams; #1, #2 or #3 seeds.

4) Defense, defense, defense
While a flashy offense looks great, defense wins championships. Shooting percentage allowed is a key stat, a far better indicator of defensive intensity than points per game. Look for underdogs that play championship level defense.

5) Free throws cover pointspreads
Free throws given up and attempted is another key statistic. When one team gets to the free throw line far more often than their opponents, it means that they play fundamentally sound defense and are aggressive on offense. Remember, an eight point favorite that is winning by two can cover the spread in the final thirty seconds of the game if they are capable of hitting their free throws.

6) Don’t forget rebounding
Rebounding differential is crucial to examine. The better rebounding teams tend to dominate the paint, getting easy looks while their opponents are relegated to shooting jumpers from the outside. The extra possessions that good rebounding teams are able to get can have a huge impact on their results.

7) Look at the guard play
Veteran leadership in the backcourt is one common denominator among championship caliber teams. Strong guard play results in fewer turnovers and extra assists – more easy buckets and less wasted possessions.

8.) Throw out the records that don’t matter
When teams play in the NCAA tournament, they are facing top notch competition away from home. Looking at their records and stats against weaklings, particularly at home, is utterly irrelevant from a handicapping perspective. Look at how teams performed against upper echelon foes away from home for a clearer indicator of their potential.

9) Be aware of home court advantages
While the NCAA tournament is purportedly played on neutral floors, the selection committee gives relatively friendly trips to a handful of teams. Ohio State, North Dakota State, Washington, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Villanova Oklahoma, Louisville and Utah State will all enjoy some sort of a home court advantage in the first round of the tourney this year.

10) Follow the lead of the pros
In the NCAA tournament, many amateurs enter the betting world for the first time all season. These square bettors tend to back favorites and overlook schools from smaller conferences. Professional bettors are far more knowledgeable about smaller conferences and that gives them an edge when analyzing on-court match-ups.

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Who will win the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament?
Article courtesy of Ted Sevransky, a professional college basketball handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are looking for winning 2009 march madness picks, be sure to buy Teddy Covers march madness picks at Touthouse.com

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In Part 1 and Part 2 of this article, I used a variety of statistical and historical considerations to narrow down the field of potential NCAA tournament champions to seven legitimate contenders: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt, Villanova and Michigan State. Today, I’ll narrow that list even further, settling on the team that I’m picking to cut down the nets in Detroit on the first Monday of April.

The next step is to analyze the point guard play from those seven squads, using assist-to-turnover ratio as the primary method of determining greatness. My formula here is simple – I’m looking for a minimum of a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio from the primary point guard or point guards. If a player/team doesn’t have that ratio at the point, they get bounced right here.

Ty Lawson at North Carolina dishes 6.5 assists and commits only 2.0 turnovers per game. Michigan State does well in the ‘dual point guard’ department, with Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton combining for a 7.9- 3.3 ratio. Oklahoma’s Austin Johnson has solid numbers, with a 3.9-1.5 ratio. Pitt’s Levance Fields might not have much of an NBA future, but he’s got the best assist-to-turnover ratio of the entire ‘short list’ group, dishing out 7.6 dimes per game, while committing only 1.9 turnovers.

UConn hasn’t been the same team since Jerome Dyson got hurt, a team that lacks a perimeter shooting touch (not to mention lacking depth). AJ Price’s numbers at the point reflect those shooting woes: 4.6 assists to 2.5 turnovers. Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker also get time at the point, but their numbers don’t pass the test either: 4.7 assists, 2.6 turnovers between them.

Wake Forest has Jeff Teague, a great scorer but not a great assist man or ballhandler, as evidenced by his 3.6 assist to 3.3 turnovers ratio. Ish Smith coming off the bench is more of a true point guard for the Demon Deacons, but his 3.5 assist to 2.0 turnover ratio doesn’t wow me either.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher both get time at the point for Villanova. Reynolds has a 3.7 assist to 2.6 turnover ratio. Fisher’s ratio is 2.8-1.9. A third distributor for the Wildcats, Reggie Redding, averages 3.0 assists to 1.8 turnovers. Not one of the three passes the 2:1 test. Villanova, Wake Forest and UConn all get bounced from my ‘short list’ here. We’re down to our Final Four already

Teams with at least two NBA first round picks in their lineup tend to do well come tournament time. Last year, we saw Kansas get three players drafted, including Brandon Rush in the lottery, Darrel Arthur later in the first round and Mario Chalmers at the beginning of the second round. The year before Florida had three lottery picks – Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah.

Oklahoma’s got a pair of likely lottery picks in Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. North Carolina can’t match those two expected lottery picks, but they’ve got their entire starting five in action. Ty Lawson is a surefire mid first rounder. Tyler Hansbrough is a late first rounder/early second rounder and Danny Green could potentially join him that high. Both Wayne Ellington and Deon Thompson are on the NBA’s radar screen for the second round, and frosh Ed Davis will be an NBA-er whenever he decides to go pro. Pitt has late lottery pick DeJuan Blair and late first round/early second rounder Sam Young. Michigan State, however, comes up short in this department. Kalin Lucas, Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers aren’t projected first rounders from any of the mock drafts that I have seen. We’ll send the Spartans packing here.

I know that Michigan’s Fab Five made it all the way to the national title game back in 1992, with five true freshmen in their starting lineup. But let’s not forget that the Wolverines lost to Duke by 20 in that championship game; their youth and inexperience showing up in a big way as they got blown out in the second half. And when the all-sophomore Wolverines made it back to the title game against North Carolina the next year, they didn’t come away with the title either.

A couple of key freshmen contributors is a good thing. A team that relies almost exclusively on underclassmen is a problem. Oklahoma’s best two players – Griffin and Warren – are both underclassmen. That’s 36.7 points, 16.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists from a frosh and sophomore star, with nobody else on the team averaging more than nine points or six boards per game. I’ll send Oklahoma home here.

We’re down to the last two teams standing –North Carolina and Pitt; the two best teams from the two best conferences. They are currently ranked #1 and #2 in the polls and in the RPI, and deserve to be ranked where they are – how boring. I didn’t plan it this way – I have no preconceived notions when I start this article; I just run through the criteria one by one, eliminating one team after the next, until I reach my final two. And even here, the hard numbers make all the difference in terms of which team I’m going to pick to win it all.

I’m calling for the North Carolina Tar Heels to beat the Pitt Panthers in my championship game, although these two teams could hook up in the national semifinals should both reach the Final Four (as I expect they will). There are two reasons why I’m picking Roy Williams over Jamie Dixon this time around.

First is free throw shooting. Anyone who doubts the importance of closing out games at the charity stripe needs to review some video of last year’s national title game, when Memphis was unable to close out Kansas at the line, allowing the Jayhawks to, quite literally, steal the Tigers title away from them. Free throw shooting was the difference in that ballgame – nothing more, nothing less. Memphis couldn’t hit the shots when they counted the most and it cost them dearly.

North Carolina hit their free throws at a 76% clip this year, the eleventh best free throw shooting team in the country. Pitt shot 67% from the charity stripe, ranking 235th out of 343 teams. Advantage: Tar Heels.

The second factor here is depth, particularly in the frontcourt. Every time Pitt’s Dejuan Blair or Tyrell Biggs gets in foul trouble, the Panthers have no suitable replacement coming off the bench. Gary McGhee only gets seven minutes of playing time per game, and he’s no Blair or Biggs just yet. This is where the injury to prize recruit Austin Wallace finally hurts the Panthers.

All three of Pitt’s losses this year - Louisville, Villanova and Providence — came in games when Blair got into foul trouble. They almost lost to Rutgers when Blair was limited to eight minutes with foul trouble. This past weekend, when Blair left the game after picking up his third foul against UConn, the Huskies immediately went on a 10-0 run before Blair came back into the game. The irreplaceable frontcourt player is a big problem for a team that is looking to win it all, and Blair is that player.

So, that leaves us, by process of elimination, with North Carolina as our national champ this year. The Tar Heels have all the factors that we look for. They are from a major conference. They are going to be seeded at #3 or higher. They’ve been winning away from home all year. They have a great point guard. They have great depth. They rebound. They play defense. They hit free throws. They have balance. They can win slow down games using their half court offense and uptempo games where they’ll run and gun. There’s no surprise here – North Carolina has ranked among the top two or three teams in the country all year, and I’ll call for them to finish as the #1 team when the final buzzer sounds four weeks from today.

Who will win the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament?
Article courtesy of Ted Sevransky, a professional college basketball handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are looking for winning 2009 march madness picks, be sure to buy Teddy Covers march madness picks at Touthouse.com

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In Part 1 of this article, I took a hard look at the statistical profile of the past dozen NCAA champions. From the very basics of that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2009, consisting of the following 14 teams: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Michigan State and LSU.

I’ll wager dollars to donuts that the 2009 champion is one of these teams. The next step, of course, is to eliminate teams one by one, slowly but surely working our way towards the eventual national champ.

Our first step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home. In most years, we’ll find a sub .500 road record or two, an instant elimination. This year, we have so sub .500 road records in this group, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be bouncing three teams based on their road results right here, right now.

Kansas has a grand total of one quality road win all year – last week, on national TV, at Oklahoma, when the Sooners were playing without National Player of the Year candidate Blake Griffin. The other five road wins all came against squads that aren’t going to the Big Dance this year. The Jayhawks are 6-4 SU on the highway, but the four losses tell a big story: at Syracuse, Arizona, Michigan State and Missouri. It’s a similar story with Missouri, a team with only one quality road win all year, at Texas. The Tigers lost at Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska and Xavier. Road wins against the likes of Fairfield, Georgia and Iowa State don’t count for much in March.

I’m going to bounce Marquette here as well. The season ending injury to star senior guard Dominic James is nothing short of devastating for a team that relied almost exclusively on their backcourt trio. The loss of James leaves the Golden Eagles without the necessary depth to compete for a title. Impressive early season road wins at Northern Iowa, Providence and Notre Dame (impressive at the time, at least) are now overshadowed by recent road losses at South Florida, Villanova and Louisville. Marquette is a ten point underdog at Pitt tonight. If they pull the upset, I’m willing to reconsider, but the moneyline says otherwise – Marquette is nearly a 5:1 underdog to win this game outright.

Next, we move to defensive acumen, based on the most under-rated stat in all of college basketball – defensive field goal percentage allowed. UConn, Wake Forest, Louisville and Oklahoma all rank in the Top 25 nationally in this key stat. LSU, Villanova, North Carolina, Pitt and Michigan State aren’t far behind. Clemson ranks #107 in the country. Duke ranks #149. Thos are not national championship type numbers – a champion’s defense has to be able to carry the team on a night when their shots are not falling. The Tigers and Blue Devils get eliminated from contention right here.

LSU gets bounced next, for their likely seeding. The Tigers played a very weak non-conference schedule. Their only game against a likely NCAA foe in non-conference play was a 30 point loss at Utah. They also lost their second toughest game, at Texas A&M. The SEC is way down this year, leaving them looking at a schedule ranked in the high 90’s, even their stellar run through the conference. The Tigers are going to be a #4 seed or higher, even if they win every game from now until the SEC Tournament is through. The eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3 in every year dating back to 1997. 16 of the last 19 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds. I like this LSU team a lot, but I play no favorites in this column – the stats and hard numbers do my work for me.

As we continue with the statistical profile of a champion, interior play is next on the list. The statistic that we’ll use is rebounding margin. Pitt, UConn and Michigan State rank 1-2-3 in the nation in rebounding. North Carolina ranks #7. Wake ranks #23. Oklahoma ranks #24. Villanova ranks #35. Clearly this is a stat worth paying attention to. Inside/outside balance is key to making a run in March – teams that don’t control the paint don’t win national championships. This is where Louisville falls short, ranked #86 nationally in rebounding.

OK, we’re down to seven serious contenders: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, UConn, Pitt, Villanova and Michigan State. Check back later in the week for the conclusion of this article, as I narrow down this list even further, to settle on the eventual champion.

Who will win the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament?
Article courtesy of Ted Sevransky, a professional college basketball handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are looking for winning 2009 march madness picks, be sure to buy Teddy Covers march madness picks at Touthouse.com

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History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this essay every year, and every year, I have been able to identify the eventual champion among my elite level teams.

The last dozen NCAA champions – Arizona over Kentucky in 1997, Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05, Florida over UCLA in ’06, Florida over Ohio State in ’07 and Kansas over Memphis last year – all had very specific abilities and a very specific statistical profile as a team that allowed them to go all the way.

Two years ago, I correctly pegged the Florida Gators as repeat champs. Here’s what I wrote, after eliminating every one of the other legit national title contenders, one by one :

“So that leaves me with the one team remaining – the boring choice. Florida cut down the nets for the national title last year, and I’m going to call for the Gators to become the first team since Duke in 1991 and 1992 to repeat. With all five starters back from last year’s team, the best shooting team in the country can withstand an off night from any one or two of their key players and still advance. Billy Donovan’s kids were the best team in the country for most of the year. When all is said and done, I expect Florida to repeat as national champions on the first Monday in April.”

Last year, I pegged Kansas and UCLA to reach the title game. Here’s what I wrote about those two squads:

“Kansas and UCLA are my final two teams standing. I think you can make a legitimate argument for either one of these two squads to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Both teams pass every reasonable test – depth, defensive acumen and intensity, rebounding and low post presence, point guard play and ball handling, the ability to win away from home, free throw shooting, rosters littered with NBA bound prospects, experience, coaching. You name it, and these two teams have it. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Bruins and Jayhawks, both potential (but not certain) #1 seeds, meet on April 7th with the national championship at stake.” The Jayhawks, of course, won it all, and UCLA reached the Final Four.

Past predictions do not necessarily indicate future success – any stockbroker who has lost your life savings over the past two years will admit that — but I’ll stand by my track record in this essay. Remember, as always, this article gets written at the very beginning of March, before the regular season for the major conferences are even over, before the conference tournaments, before the seedings are announced and before a single tournament game has been played.

Cinderella’s have reached the championship game. Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002 stand out as two teams that were not among the top 16 seeds in the tournament. But those Cinderella’s have been unable to seal the deal – the eventual champion has been seeded no lower than #3 in every single year dating back to 1997, when Arizona won it all as a #4 seed. You’ll have to go all the way back to 1988 for a real longshot, when Larry Brown guided the Kansas Jayhawks to a title as a #6 seed. 16 of the last 19 national champions have been #1 or #2 seeds.

To earn that type of a seed, the eventual champion must have been an elite level team all year. None of the last eleven champions had more than seven regular season losses. The hidden factor behind those numbers, is, of course, road success – each eventual champ was .500 or better on the road heading into the tournament season.

I would be very surprised to see a team win the whole thing this year if they enter the tournament with more than seven losses. To win the Big Dance, teams have to be better than good, or even very good. Winning six straight games over three weekends requires greatness.

Each of the past eleven champions was from one of the six ‘major’ conferences. The mid-majors measure success with Sweet 16 berths, not Final Four trips, despite George Mason’s amazing run two years ago. We’ve seen Louisville and Marquette make it to the Final Four from Conference USA (both teams are now in the Big East), while Memphis made the championship game from Conference USA and Utah made it from the WAC (at the time; now they are in the Mountain West), but those are clearly the exceptions, not the rule.

Basically, if a team is not from the Big East, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC or PAC-10, they aren’t facing enough tough competition on a nightly basis to get them ready for an extended tournament run. Sorry Memphis, Butler, Xavier, Utah and Gonzaga – you’re not going to make my list. I did give serious consideration to making a ‘Memphis exception’, but I’ll let the Tigers prove me wrong before I include them as legit contenders for the second straight year.

Every champion had a top notch point guard – Mario Chalmers, Mateen Cleaves, Khalid El-Amin, Steve Blake, Taurean Green, Ray Felton, Jay Williams and Gerry McNamara just to name a few. Each had great inside/outside balance, with the ability to pound the ball down low as well as strong perimeter shooters from the outside.

One dimensional teams won’t go all the way, and rarely make it even as far as the Final Four – a champion cannot simply run and gun here in the 21st century. UNLV was the last team to win a championship that way, and that was 18 years ago (my, how time flies!).

In this era, contenders must be able to beat teams using their half court offense almost exclusively, as the level of defense that they’ll face rises with each passing game of the tournament. The past dozen champions were all rock solid defensive teams, probably the most overlooked category among bracketologists in the office pools. And their inside presence wasn’t marginal – each and every one of those champions that were positively dominant on the boards.

Depth was not a major concern for any of the champions – each was able to survive the game, or games, where key players suffered from foul trouble or cold shooting nights. Depth, rebounding, defense, balance, great play at the point and in the paint, the ability to run halfcourt sets – the criteria for a potential champion is very specific.

Using just the seven losses, and major conference criteria alone, we can narrow the list of potential NCAA tournament winners down to the following group of 21 teams: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, LSU, South Carolina, Washington, Arizona State and UCLA.

Technically, all these teams should make the list, but I’m going to eliminate the teams with seven losses already. There’s still two more games for each of these teams prior to their conference tournament, and frankly, all the seven loss teams are a notch or two behind the rest of the pack. In addition, I don’t see any of the seven loss teams earning a top three seed. So Florida State, Purdue, Illinois, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA and South Carolina get eliminated from the above group. In fact, the entire PAC-10 is gone already, before the real discussion even begins. Buh-bye!

From 21, we’re already down to 14 contenders, leading one eventual national champ. Check back later in the week, when I break down each one of those 14 teams to arrive at the one team from that group which my money will be on to cut down the nets in Detroit on April 6th.

2009 March Madness: A Defensive Approach
Article Courtesy of Alex Smart, A professional sports handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are looking for winning 2009 march madness predictions and betting picks, be sure to visit Touthouse.com

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It’s almost that time of year again as March Madness has once again almost arrived. With it’s arrival comes memories of some of the most breath taking basketball that can be found anywhere in the world today. With it’s arrival comes memories of some of the most breath taking basketball that can be found anywhere in the world today. Games that will have you biting your nails, screaming unmentionable insults at the TV screen and arm raising fanaticism, that often leaves many non-basketball fans wondering, what underlying physiological problems you may have.

Included in this Mardi Gras like festival are big school bands, beautiful cheerleaders, and crowds that make many believe the building is about to collapse. Included in this purgatory like atmosphere are all niter Parties that leave you dazed and exhausted.

These are just a few of the great tension filled days called March Madness, a tournament that started with 8 college basketball teams back in 1939. Now in the year 2009, 65 of Americas best college basketball teams collide in one giant hardwood explosion.

Unfortunately, during this incredible sporting spectacle the regular betting man will start to be taken in by emotional whirlwind that surrounds him. Throwing his money around like a Friday niter pub crawl dart player. Leaving him susceptible to uncontrolled, emotionally motivated betting regiments that would make any professional bettor twist and turn in torment.

It is during this time that most basketball betting pundits are most vulnerable, and believe me the oddsmakers are fully aware of this.

So when preparing to wager on a March Madness game, be well aware of what the true odds should be. Taking into consideration all statistical and motivational data needed to intelligently decipher a game situation, that is not always as straight forward as the lines makers and analysts would lead you to believe. Most TV sports commentators will put a spin on these NCAA hoops games that Meadowlark Lemon of the Harlem Globetrotters would be proud of. Leaving you so dizzied by the influx of unrelated statistical data, that you don’t even know if the #1 team in the nation even has a crack at winning a single game, let alone a spot in the final four.

It’s at this exact point in time when we should all remember to stand back and take a second to get out of the March Madness tornado and to shake the emotional cobwebs out of our heads.

Remember the chant DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. Take a defensive posture during this March Madness and keep your emotions in check . This should help keep you from losing a pocketful of dough and help you garner some profits that make that big party hangover easier to handle.