March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksApril 5th, 2008
Memphis @ UCLA u133.5 (-110)
Sat Apr 5 ‘08 6:05p
The Memphis Tigers have been running up some scores lately, but we expect the stingy defense of the UCLA Bruins to slow the Tigers down here, resulting in a much lower scoring game than many people expect.
UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, and they will no doubt make a concerted effort not to let Memphis get their running game going, as the Bruins know that the Tigers are capable of running away with this game if they are not at least slowed down. The Bruins are allowing just 58.9 points per game this season while holding their opponents to 42.0 percent shooting, and they have been downright suffocating lately, surrendering 55.4 points per on a miniscule 35.3 percent shooting to their last five opponents.
While the Tigers are known for their exciting offense, many people overlook their excellent defense which is holding opponents to 38.8 percent shooting over the entire year. Considering that the Bruins will slow the pace of this game when they are on offense also, we think that the Memphis defense should have no trouble keeping UCLA around 60 points or so at the most here.
The bottom line is that if UCLA is successful in containing the Memphis transition game, we do not see this contest getting out of the 120s.
CBB Free Pick: Memphis, UCLA Under 133.5
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 30th, 2008
Davidson @ Kansas u147.0 (-110)
Sun Mar 30 ‘08 5:05p - Click Here for Final Four Betting Odds

Kansas is limiting opponents to just 38.0 percent shooting this season, and their defense has been absolutely suffocating during this tournament, allowing 57, 56 and 61 points respectively on a miniscule 34.0 percent shooting! In fact, Kansas has held six of their last eight opponents to 61 points or less.
Now for all of Curry’s success this season, Davidson games are still averaging just a combined 141.8 points, about five points vs. this posted total, and all of those games were vs. lesser defenses. Also, the Under is still 18-15 in all Wildcats games, despite their first three tournament games all going Over posted totals that were much lower than this one.
We look for this game to top out at around 140 points or so.
CBB Free Pick: Davidson, Kansas Under 147
March Madness Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 30th, 2008
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Prez is on a 17-1 CBB Run
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CBB Total of the Tournament
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Apollo is up +$100,000 for his CBB Dime Bettors
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 28th, 2008
Michigan State @ Memphis u136.0 (-110) - Click Here for Odds
Fri Mar 28 ‘08 9:55p
Yes, the Memphis Tigers and Michigan State Spartans are both capable of scoring in bunches, but defense wins championships and we look for both defensive units to rise up here.
Memphis may be one of the flashiest teams in the country, so it is easy to forget the fact that they do have a tenacious defense that has gotten them through some games this season when they were less than spectacular offensively. The Tigers are allowing just 61.1 points per game on 38.6 percent shooting for the entire year, and prior to allowing 74 points to Mississippi State on Sunday, they had allowed 63 points or less in six straight games.
Now Michigan State is more known for their defense, and with good reason. They too are limiting opponents below 40 percent shooting this year, at 39.8 percent, while permitting 61.7 points per contest. They have not allowed more than 65 points in any of their last six contests.
While some fans may be disappointed, look for defense to prevail in this matchup tonight.
Free Pick: Michigan State, Tigers Under 136
CBB Free Pick: Michigan State, Tigers Under 136
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 28th, 2008
Villanova @ Kansas o143.5 (-110) - Click Here for Odds
Fri Mar 28 ‘08 9:40p
This posted total between the Villanova Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks may seem right on based on year-to-date averages, but we actually expect Kansas to get challenged here, leading to a lot of late free throws to pad this final score.
In fact, both of these teams have virtually identical averages this season in regards to total game scores, although the average winning margins are very different. Kansas games are averaging 142.8 points, with the Jayhawks outscoring their opponents by an average score of 81.4-61.4. By comparison, Villanova games are averaging 142.6 points, but the Wildcats are only winning an average score of 73.2-69.4.
That said, Villanova may be playing their best basketball of the year right now, and their 45.3 field goal percentage over the last five games is significantly better than their 43.3 percent average for the season. Also, bumping and grinding with Big East competition every night is a nice way to prepare for this still Kansas defense.
Still, we do feel that Kansas is the much better team here, and we do see the Jayhawks ultimately withstanding a Wildcats challenge. However, we do see these teams combining for around 150 points in the process.
CBB Free Pick: Villanova, Kansas Over 143.5
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 27th, 2008
Xavier +1.0 (-110)
Thu March 27 ‘08 7:10p
As much as we feel that the Big East is the best conference in the country, we think that the West Virginia Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect here vs. a Xavier Musketeers team that we still feel is underrated.
Xavier is now 29-6 on the year, and while they have taken some heat for playing in the Atlantic 10 Conference, we feel that the tough non-conference schedule they played should be enough to prove their validity. Remember that according to the Pomeroy Ratings, Xavier is third in the country in offensive efficiency behind North Carolina and Kansas, who we just happen to feel are the two best teams in the nation, and the Xavier defense is also underrated, as they have limited their opponents to 40.6 percent shooting over the entire year.
West Virginia is a nice mid-level Big East team, but while many people were surprised by their upset of Duke, we actually picked them to win that game outright, as we feel that Xavier actually offers a bigger challenge to them. The Mountaineers are not a terribly good rebounding team while Xavier has outrebounded their opponents by about six boards per game, so if West Virginia is slightly off from the outside, we feel that rebounding edge will determine the winner of this one.
The Musketeers should move on as small underdogs.
CBB Free Pick: Xavier +1
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Washington State +8.5
Thu Mar 27 ‘08 7:25p
In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start off this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15 point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play. Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering ten of their first fifteen lined games.
Tony Bennett’s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven’t seen it before, and their defense is as sticky as it gets. That’s why the Cougars SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign – the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around. North Carolina has no such advantage. And we saw how good this Cougars team can be with a unique level of motivation and focus, following a sluggish first half against Winthrop on Thursday – Wassou went on an incredible 36-5 run to open up the second half, then carried that momentum forward with an absolutely dominant showing against the Fighting Irish, holding Notre Dame to a season low 13 made field goals.
North Carolina was able to control pace and tempo in each of their first two opening weekend games, hanging 113 on Mt St Mary’s and 108 on Arkansas while shooting 61 percent and 68 percent from the floor in those two contests. Neither the Razorbacks nor the Mountaineers were capable of running with the Tar Heels, but neither squad had the defensive acumen to control the pace. Wassou has that acumen, and they are most assuredly a very talented team still searching for respect. Every team gets tested on their way to the Final Four. Expect this game to be the Tar Heels first true test of the tournament. Take Washington State.
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 26th, 2008
Free Pick: Washington State +8.5
Thu Mar 27 ‘08 7:25p - Click Here for Current NCAA Basketball Odds
In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start off this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15 point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play. Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering ten of their first fifteen lined games.
Tony Bennett’s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven’t seen it before, and their defense is as sticky as it gets. That’s why the Cougars SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign – the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around. North Carolina has no such advantage. And we saw how good this Cougars team can be with a unique level of motivation and focus, following a sluggish first half against Winthrop on Thursday – Wassou went on an incredible 36-5 run to open up the second half, then carried that momentum forward with an absolutely dominant showing against the Fighting Irish, holding Notre Dame to a season low 13 made field goals.
North Carolina was able to control pace and tempo in each of their first two opening weekend games, hanging 113 on Mt St Mary’s and 108 on Arkansas while shooting 61 percent and 68 percent from the floor in those two contests. Neither the Razorbacks nor the Mountaineers were capable of running with the Tar Heels, but neither squad had the defensive acumen to control the pace. Wassou has that acumen, and they are most assuredly a very talented team still searching for respect. Every team gets tested on their way to the Final Four. Expect this game to be the Tar Heels first true test of the tournament. Take Washington State.
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March Madness Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 24th, 2008
AJ Apollo is up $120,000 for his College Basketball Dime Bettors
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 24th, 2008
Nebraska +5.5 (-110)
Mon Mar 24 ‘08 9:00p - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Picks
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have looked good recently and the Big 12 has done well this post-season, so look for the Huskers to at the very least take the Mississippi Rebels down to the wire.
Nebraska has been a bettor’s dream as of late, going 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games including covering their last five in a row. The last time they played away from home, they gave Kansas all that they can handle before ultimately falling 64-54, still covering the 14-point spread. They then rebounded by trouncing NC Charlotte 67-48 in the first round of this NIT.
Mississippi started this season 13-0, but they have gone just 9-10 straight up since, missing their chance to be in the Big Dance. They did beat Cal Santa Barbara handily 83-68 in the first round, but Nebraska represents a big jump in class here, and besides, it is not as if the Rebels are blowing people away at home this year. In fact, they are just 6-7 ATS in their own building even including that firs round win, despite this being a rather down year for the SEC.
We will go with the hotter team from the better conference as underdogs here.
CBB Free Pick: Nebraska +5.5
Mississippi -5.5
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This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978. The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
NEBRASKA fails to covers when they play:
On the road: 3-7 ATS last 10 games
And more specifically, when they play on the road as dogs of +3.5 to +6 points:
1-5 ATS last 6 games
MISSISSIPPI covers when they play:
Vs Big-12 opponents: 5-1 ATS last 6 games
After scoring at least 80 points: 18-7 ATS last 25 games
GO WITH MISSISSIPPI -5.5 IN THIS 900PM EST MATCHUP
UAB +8.0
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The UAB Blazers enter into this contest off a 80-77 win on the road against a very good Virginia Commonwealth team in the first round of the NIT . The Blazers have been tough opponent for all their opponents this season, and have covered 5 of their L/7 non conference tilts . I once again, expect the Blazers (10-5 ATS L/15) to come up big again in this spot against a Virginia Tech team that has been inconsistent this season and just 1-4 ATS in their L/5 vs C-USA team. Final notes & Key Trends: UAB is 12-3 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Play on the Blazers
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March Madness Picks, Free Sports Picks, NCAA Basketball PicksMarch 23rd, 2008
Oklahoma @ Louisville u126.0 (-110)
Sun Mar 23 ‘08 5:00p
The Louisville Cardinals have held opponents to just 38.6 percent shooting this season, while the Under is also 7-1 in the last eight Oklahoma Sooners games, so look for a low-scoring contest today.
In fact, given that the Sooners are averaging 61.1 points on 40.8 percent shooting on the road, they may have trouble scoring much more than 50 points here. Their average has plummeted further to an anemic 51.8 points over their last four road games, thanks to back-to-back games where they scored 45 points at Texas and Nebraska.
The Cardinals have gone Under in three of the last four games, holding their opponents to 61 points or less in each of the three Unders. Their defense has been just as stifling on the road as it has at home, as Louisville is holing opponents to 39.0 percent shooting away from home. Now granted, they are averaging 72.2 points offensively overall, but given that we don’t expect Oklahoma to top 50, we still feel this game stays Under.
Do not expect to see more than 120 total points scored here.
CBB Free Pick: Oklahoma, Louisville Under 126
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