MLB Predictions: May 16th 2012
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Over 10.5 -110 odds
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Two starting pitchers who are really struggling this season square off tonight inside hitter-friendly Coors Field. I look for the runs to be plentiful as both Pat Corbin and Jamie Moyer get rocked in this one. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season, including 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two road starts. This will be his first-ever start inside Coors, so I highly doubt he’s looking forward to it. Moyer is 1-3 with a 4.65 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.40 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran left-hander should have retired instead of coming back another season for this kind of embarrassment. Colorado is hitting .282 and scoring 6.5 runs/game at home this season, while opponents are hitting .314 and scoring 6.4 runs/game inside Coors. Take the OVER 10.5 runs here.

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Baseball Picks: May 16th 2012
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -110
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The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a small home favorite Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox. The Angels are off to a slow start this season, but as a result they are undervalued right now. It’s only a matter of time before they get rolling with the talent they have on this roster.

Los Angeles is coming off a solid 4-0 victory last night, and now they send underrated starter Jerome Williams to the bump. As a starter, Williams is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in five outings. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in three home starts.

Gavin Floyd is having a solid season for Chicago as well, but he’s 0-2 with a 3.15 ERA through three road starts in 2012. Also, Floyd gave up 6 earned runs over 6 innings in his last start against the Angels. He is now 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three games against Los Angeles.

This play falls into a system that is 54-19 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CHI WHITE SOX) – terrible offensive team. Get more baseball picks today at Touthouse.com

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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Yankees -148 odds (May 15th 2012)

The Yankees get the call as our free play with CC Sabathia on the bump. The big southpaw is heating up. He’s gone 3-0 with an ERA of 1.50 over his last 3 starts. Plus, he’s had Baltimore’s number. He’s 16-2 (19-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.86 in 23 career starts versus the Orioles. The Yankees are 12-1 in his last 13 starts vs. the Orioles, 8-0 in his last 8 road starts vs. the Orioles, 50-18 in his last 68 starts overall and 35-16 in his last 51 road starts.

The Yankees are 51-17 in their last 68 meetings with the O’s and 20-6 in their last 26 meetings in Baltimore. Take the Yanks.

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Baseball Picks: May 15th 2012
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets +134 odds
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #908 New York over Milwaukee (7:10pm est): The Milwaukee Brewers and their star pitcher Zack Greinke look totally different when they are away from home than they do when both of them are at home. The betting market looks to be rating these two together like this game tonight is being played in Milwaukee but instead it’s in New York, where both aren’t nearly as good.

Been a rough start to the 2012 season so far for a Brewers team coming off a memorable 2011. Most of Milwaukee’s problems stem from how poorly they have played away from home, going just 6-11 on the road this season. This was the exact same problem they had last season as they looked like world beaters at home but dropped off considerably when playing away from there. They have won just two of their last eleven road games versus teams with winning records and only one of their last five against those type of teams with Greinke on the hill. Greinke sports a rocky 7.20 road ERA in his three away starts this season, this coming a year after pitching much worse away from home also. Get more baseball picks for May 15th 2012 from Doc’s Sports at Touthouse.com

The Mets have been a surprise team so far in 2012 and a lot of that surprise has come from an offense that continues to hit the ball. They have been a very consistent group with the bats having scored 5.4 runs per game in their last ten contests while putting up three or more runs in each of those ten games. The Mets were able to do this against some top line pitchers like Halladay, Lee and Buehrle along with some other solid ones like Gallardo, Nolasco, Zambrano, Blanton, Miley and Cahill going up against them.

The market obviously hasn’t adjusted enough for how much better the Mets are this season and how much worse the Brewers were than last year. This has helped create some nice value here in this one tonight. Take New York here in this one.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: New York Yankees -109 odds (May 14th 2012)
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The Yankees are showing value at this price considering they are 4-2 against the Orioles this season and have won all 3 meetings in Baltimore. Looking back, the Yankees are 50-17 in the last 67 meetings, including 21-7 in their last 28 in Baltimore.

Baltimore’s Jason Hammel is off to a sensational start, but he hasn’t fared well against the Yankees. The right-hander is just 1-3 (2-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.87 in 6 career starts versus New York. The Yankees’ Ivan Nova, meanwhile, is 3-1 (4-2 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.96 in 6 career starts versus the O’s.

The Yankees are 20-7 in Nova’s last 27 starts, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. We’ll take the Yanks.

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Baseball Picks: May 12th 2012
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Toronto -130
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #973 Toronto Blue Jays over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm ET) Today’s matchup features an underrated ball club versus the worst team in the major leagues. The Toronto Blue Jays don’t get a whole lot of respect and most of that has to do with them being a part of the American League East and the fact that they play north of the border. However, if you put this Blue Jays team in another division they’d find a way to win 90 games and would be making a run in the playoffs. With the additional wild card added this season, they now have a realistic chance to show everyone that they belong. Their lineup doesn’t have a single easy out in it and is currently ranked 4th in the American League in runs scored. They’d be even higher if it weren’t for the horrible start to the season by their star Jose Bautista, but I’m confident that he’ll get back on track as he’s one of the best power hitters in the game. The Jays will send rookie right-hander Drew Hutchison out to take the ball today. Hutchison was one of Toronto’s highly touted prospects and he’s pitched well enough to be making his fifth start this season. His numbers aren’t great but you can see the potential as his command is very good and he has good enough stuff to fool guys at the plate. Three of his four starts have been on the road so he should be comfortable there by now, and tonight he gets to face the worst offense in the American League in the Twins.

The Minnesota Twins have an abysmal lineup that is averaging only 3.3 runs per game, and that was with Justin Morneau for most of the season. Morneau is now on the disabled list and the Twins have three or four hitters in their lineup that probably belong in the minor leagues at this point. The worst part is that they really don’t have many prized prospects to bring up to improve the offense any time soon. Their bullpen really isn’t much better, as they are counting on a lot of young guys in big situations. There’s no doubt that we’ll see some late inning implosions by the Twins from time to time. Rookie P.J. Waters will be making his big league debut today for the Twins. There’s obviously not much of a book out there on Waters yet, but his minor league numbers weren’t that great and he’s only pitching today due to injuries and the struggles of Francisco Liriano in the rotation. The Blue Jays aren’t the kind of lineup you want to face in your first major league start, so I’d be surprised if Waters can last more than five innings. That means will get to see a few of those weak arms in the bullpen, which is even better for Toronto. The line on this game is extremely low considering the Twins are probably the worst team in baseball, so take Toronto with confidence in this matchup.

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MLB Baseball Picks: May 11th 2012
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Giants -119 odds
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The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small road favorite in Game 1 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco has the superior starter on the mound tonight in Madison Bumgarner, and I’ll ride him to victory in this one.

Bumgarner was one of the most underrated starters in the league last season. The lefty went 13-13 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.212 WHIP with 191 strikeouts in 204 2/3 innings. Bumgarner has picked up right where he left off, going 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.077 WHIP through six starts in 2012.

He’ll be opposed by Pat Corbin, who is no more than a fill-in starter for Arizona. Corbin is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two starts this season. Bumgarner has had solid success against the Diamondbacks in the past, going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in six career starts against Arizona.

Bumgarner is 16-3 against the money line after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 1-8 against the money line in home games after a loss this season. The Giants are 17-4 in Bumgarner’s last 21 starts as a favorite. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Bet San Francisco Friday.

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Baseball Picks: May 10th 2012
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Over 7
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Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in the Detroit vs. Oakland Game 1 Thursday. These starting pitchers are getting way too much respect in this one. I expect to see at least 8 combined runs by the time both Max Scherzer and Bartolo Colon depart.

Scherzer just hasn’t lived up to the hype since coming over to Detroit. The righty is coming off a poor 2011 campaign in which he posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.349 WHIP through 33 starts. Scherzer hasn’t been any better in 2012, going 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP through six starts.

Bartolo Colon has actually pitched very well on the road this season. The veteran has proven he still has something left in the tank, but he has not fared well at home this year. Colon is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two home starts in 2012, yielding 9 earned runs and 20 base runners over 11 1/3 innings.

Neither of these starters has had that much success against the opposition. Colon is 8-9 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.581 WHIP in 23 career starts against Detroit. Scherzer is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in two career starts against the A’s. Scherzer gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start at Oakland.

Detroit is 20-8 to the OVER after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The A’s are 27-8 to the OVER in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 8-1 in Tigers last 9 games following a loss. The OVER is 7-0-1 in Scherzer’s last 8 starts vs. American League West foes. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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MLB Betting Lines: May 9th 2012
Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Angels -127 odds
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I’m backing the Los Angeles Angels as a small road favorite in Game 3 of this series with the Minnesota Twins. After getting shut out 5-0 last night by Minnesota, the Angels will be hungry to get their bats going tonight against the washed up Carl Pavano.

While Ervin Santana is winless on the season, he is still one of the most underrated starters in the game. The righty posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 33 starts in 2011. He’s off to a slow start this year, but he’s clearly coming around. Santana has allowed 5 earned runs and 15 base runners over 15 innings while striking out 13 batters in his last two starts.

Carl Pavano faced the Angels once this season, giving up 5 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings back on April 11th. In his last start against Minnesota, Santana pitched a complete game while allowing just 1 earned run over 9 innings in a 5-1 victory on August 2nd of 2011. I believe the Angels have the better starter and the better line-up in this one.

The Angels are 41-21 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 14-37 in their last 51 home games. Minnesota is 13-41 in their last 54 games overall dating back to last season. The Twins are 4-22 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Angels Wednesday.

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Baseball Picks: May 9th 2012
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto -140
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FREE PLAY FROM DOC’S SPORTS. Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays (-140) over Oakland A’s (3:35pm ET) We have another advantageous matchup between a red hot pitcher and one that is really struggling in this afternoon’s game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland A’s. Brandon Morrow is a freakish talent that has always been able to strike hitters out with his stuff but couldn’t put it all together to be a complete pitcher. In fact, last year he led the American League with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but his ERA was a whopping 4.72. This year he came in with a different mentality, focusing less on striking out hitters and more on being efficient. It’s worked beautifully as Morrow is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his six starts on the young season. Most importantly he looks even more confident on the mound and is adjusting well to his new approach.

On the other end of the spectrum, Tyson Ross of the A’s is one bad start away from going back to the minor leagues. The rookie right-hander has given up 16 earned runs in his last two starts and brings an 8.55 ERA into today’s contest. Ross has been forced into the rotation a little sooner than expected due to injuries in the A’s rotation, so his struggles are no surprise. The Blue Jays offense has had its ups and downs this year, but they have enough good hitters to take advantage of a weak arm. Toronto is 5-0 in Morrow’s last five starts on the road and should make it six today in Oakland. After losing in a walk-off game last night in Oakland, I think the Blue Jays bounce back big here and get the victory. Get more baseball picks each day from Doc’s Sports at Touthouse.com