Baseball Picks: May 22nd 2012
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Detroit Tigers +107
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The Tigers are showing value at this price considering they have won 10 in a row versus the Indians, including 4 straight in Cleveland. Plus, scheduled starter Rick Porcello has had his fair share of success against the Tribe.

Porcello is 5-1 (9-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.86 in 12 career starts versus the Indians. The Tigers have won his last 3 starts versus Cleveland.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been unable to regain the form he showed in Colorado a couple seasons ago. He’s never had much luck versus Detroit as evidenced by his 2-5 record and 6.86 ERA in 7 career starts versus the Tigers.

The Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite while the Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. It’s also worth mentioning the Tigers are 11-4 in Porcello’s last 15 road starts. Take Detroit.

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MLB Picks: May 22nd 2012
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Giants -105
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I’m backing the San Francisco Giants and the highest-paid right-handed pitcher in baseball history tonight. Matt Cain is showing great value at nearly even money against Shaun Marcum and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cain is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has stuck out 54 batters in 57 1/3 innings to pick up right where he left off last year. Marcum is 2-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in eight starts this season, but he’s clearly no Cain.

The Brewers are just 17-25 this season as they’re clearly missing Prince Fielder. Milwaukee has lost five of their last six overall, and they continue to get treated with too much respect from oddsmakers. If you bet $100/game on the Brewers this season you would be down $1,370.

Milwaukee is 0-7 in Marcum’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 18-38 in their last 56 games as an underdog. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in this series, and 9-3 in their last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet San Francisco Tuesday.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Chicago Cubs -102 odds (May 21st 2012)

5* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they take to the road and play the Houston Astros set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The Cubs have fallen apart and are mired in the basement of the NL Central standings and have lost six straight games. Sunday, they were shutout by Jake Peavy and the CWS 6-0. However, this is more times than not, the optimal time to get on a ‘ugly’ team that is facing a team that has largely outperformed over the past several weeks. Houston is five games under. 500, but that is far better than even the most optimistic preseason projections. The Cubs are also sending a strong starter to the bump in Matt Garza, who has posted a 2.58 ERA with a 1.037 WHIP in seven starts this season. He has recorded 41 strikeouts in these seven starts spanning 45 ? innings of work. Bus Norris pitching his best baseball of his career, but why then is the line a near pick-em one. he has posted a 0.45 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP over his last three starts and posted a perfect 3-0 record, BUT the line this skinny and the public is betting Houston. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-17 for 72% winners since 2006. Play against NL home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a struggling offensive team scoring

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: Yankees -149 odds (May 21st 2012)
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The Royals have been at their best on the road this season, but the Yankees still have the advantage tonight.

The Royals are just 27-67 in their last 94 meetings with the Yanks, including 10-37 in their last 47 road meetings in the series.

Kuroda has taken a few lumps on the road but has been rock solid at home, going 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA.

Kansas City’s Paulino cannot be trusted in my book. The Royals have lost 10 of his last 16 starts, and they are 2-8 in his last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Yankees have welcomed good road teams to Yankee Stadium as they are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The Yanks are also 8-2 in their last 10 series openers. Take the Yanks.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -125 odds (May 20th 2012)
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I am backing the Chicago White Sox Sunday with a big edge on the mound. The White Sox are ready to cap off the 3-0 sweep and hand the Cubs their 5th consecutive loss. They don’t have any mercy for the North Siders.

With the better starter on the mound in Jake Peavy, I’ll back the South Siders. Peavy is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in eight starts this season. Paul Maholm is 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA in seven starts this season for the Cubs.

Peavy is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Cubs. He owns this team, and that will continue Sunday. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.

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New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds +138 odds (May 19th 2012)
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5* graded play on the Reds as they take on the NY Yankees set to start at 1:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-12 for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play on any team that is a very bad NL offensive team scoring fewer than 3.8 runs per game and is now facing a team with a very good bullpen posting an ERA <=3.33 and after two straight losses by four runs or more. Reds are a solid 33-19 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Yankees have never faced Homer Bailey and he is coming off a strong start allowing just one earned run in 6 ? innings of work in a 3-1 win at Atlanta. Nova struggled big time in his last start and his command has been quite poor – not something corrected in five days of bullpen sessions. Take the Reds.

Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Prediction: Diamondbacks -105 odds (May 19th 2012)

The Royals are just 4-16 at home this season, and I expect their struggles to continue with ace Ian Kennedy stepping to the hill for Arizona.

Kennedy shut down the Royals in Kansas City last year, limiting them to 1 earned run in 6 innings of work. The Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Kennedy’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Royals are just 2-7 in Chen’s last 9 starts, 8-20 in their last 28 interleague games and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague home games.

The D-backs have won 6 in a row against the Royals. We’ll take the Snakes.

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MLB Predictions: May 18th 2012
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -131 odds
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #972 Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) It’s been a frustrating year for both the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins, but it’s only May and these teams are both still fighting hard for some respect. The Brewers sit at 16-22 and it’s clear that they are feeling the effects of losing slugger Prince Fielder a little bit. However, the effect hasn’t been as severe as some thought, as the Brewers are still 6th in the National League in runs scored and have some quality major league hitters. Several of their regulars, including Rickie Weeks, have gotten off to slow starts, so this offense is capable of climbing even higher once they get clicking. Starting pitching has been of the main problems in 2012, but today’s pitcher Marco Estrada can’t be blamed for that. Estrada stepped into the rotation to fill in for the injured Chris Narveson and he has performed pretty well. He doesn’t have any wins to show for it, but he has a 20-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his four starts and seems to be gaining confidence in every start. This is an audition of Estrada to possibly gain a full-time spot in the rotation for years to come, and I think he’ll take advantage of it this season.

While the Brewers have been disappointing this season, the Twins have been downright awful as they’re easily the worst team in the major leagues by a wide margin at 12-26. They are currently on pace to go finish the season at 51-111. They have the worst lineup in the league as there are probably three or four hitters that should be playing in the minor leagues right now. Their team ERA is 5.33, which is dead last. The fans are growing restless as the future doesn’t look that bright either. One player that has the fans a little bit excited is rookie starter Scott Diamond. The 25-year old southpaw has looked impressive in his first two starts of the season as he’s 2-0 without allowing an earned run yet. However, both of those starts were at home and against the Blue Jays and Angels. Today he’ll be making his first road start which is always difficult for a rookie pitcher. He’ll also have to get into the batter’s box for this one since it is interleague play in a National League park. That could throw him off of his game. I like the chances for the Brewers to finally crack the rookie today. And with as bad as the Twins offense is, it’s not going to take much to get a victory for Milwaukee.

Baseball Picks: May 17th 2012
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -134 odds
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I’m siding with the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday over the Houston Astros in Game 2 of this NL Central series. After losing 3-8 last night, which was their third loss in four games, the Brewers have plenty of reason to be motivated heading into this one.

Milwaukee has a huge edge on the mound with Shaun Marcum over J.A. Happ. Marcum is 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in seven starts this season. Happ is 2-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in seven starts this year for the Astros.

Marcum is 2-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in four career starts against Houston. Happ is 2-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 59-27 in their last 86 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 47-17 in their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 7-2 in Marcum’s last 9 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Astros are 10-30 in Happ’s last 40 starts overall. Bet the Brewers Thursday.

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MLB Predictions: May 16th 2012
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Over 10.5 -110 odds
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Two starting pitchers who are really struggling this season square off tonight inside hitter-friendly Coors Field. I look for the runs to be plentiful as both Pat Corbin and Jamie Moyer get rocked in this one. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season, including 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two road starts. This will be his first-ever start inside Coors, so I highly doubt he’s looking forward to it. Moyer is 1-3 with a 4.65 ERA in seven starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.40 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran left-hander should have retired instead of coming back another season for this kind of embarrassment. Colorado is hitting .282 and scoring 6.5 runs/game at home this season, while opponents are hitting .314 and scoring 6.4 runs/game inside Coors. Take the OVER 10.5 runs here.

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