Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Baseball Pick: New York Mets -113 odds (August 1st 2011)
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The New York Mets get the call Monday as a small home favorite over the Florida Marlins. New York deserves to be a bigger favorite in this one, which is no surprise considering they’ve been under the radar for most of the year. The Mets are now 55-53 on the season and have profited $100/game bettors $800 in 2011. Mike Pelfrey is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in eight home starts this year, while Javier Vazquez is 7-9 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Making his Marlins debut on April 3, Vazquez was lit up for seven runs – four earned – with six hits and five walks in 2 1-3 innings of a 9-2 loss. David Wright hit safely in all 10 games on the Mets’ recent road trip, batting .455 (20 for 44) with two homers and 12 RBIs while the Mets went 6-4. The Mets are 67-28 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season since 1997. The Marlins are 3-11 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Mets are 19-7 in Pelfrey’s last 26 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 4-0 in Pelfrey’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 7-1 in Pelfrey’s last 8 starts as a favorite. Take the Mets on the Money Line.

Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -142 odds (July 30th 2011)
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The Braves defeated the Marlins a fourth-straight time with Friday’s 5-0 win, and I expect them to have Florida’s number again Saturday.
 
The Marlins, who are just 8-23 in their last 31 games following a loss, haven’t been a good bounce back team. Plus, they have fallen well short against the league’s elite. Consider that Florida is only 5-22 in its last 27 games against clubs with a winning record. It is also worth noting that the Fish are 2-7 in scheduled starter Sanchez’s last 9 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus Braves.
 
The Braves, who are 15-4 in their last 19 home games, are in good hands with scheduled starter Hudson on the hill. The Braves are 5-0 in his last 5 Saturday starts and 13-6 in his last 19 starts versus the Marlins. We’ll bet the Braves.
 
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Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 -135 odds (July 28th 2011)
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Red Sox RL -128 (2.5* FREE PLAY) Beckett has been red hot this year and so have the Red Sox with the bats. Beckett particularly is 3-0 with a 0.90 WHIP and 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts and he’ll go in the day start on Thursday where the Red Sox are 24-8 this year and Beckett has a 2.14 ERA with 0.81 WHIP in day starts in 2011. Royals on the other hand are 14-19 and although they have hit well their pitching and the wins just have not come and that’s definitely the case with their scheduled starter Luke Hochevar who can show a glimpse of his potential at home but on the road he’s not the same as he has an ERA over 5 on the road this year and has not been any better during day starts. He’s having a rough time this month and has an ERA over 6 in his last 3 starts and over 6 in his career during day starts and in July. Red Sox are the #1 day team in offense sporting a .883 OPS while scoring 6.66 runs per game.
 
More on Beckett as he’s 6-2 lifetime vs. the Royals with a 2.26 ERA and in his 3 home starts he’s got a 1.44 ERA vs. them. Hochevar on the other hand has 4 starts vs. the Red Sox none since 2009 but a 7.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP does not bode well for him. Red Sox have 74 active at bats vs. him with a .378 average and 1.154 OPS. KC is 20-45 in their last 65 games as an under dog while Boston is 46-18 in their last 64 overall and 39-15 as a favorite over their last 54. Why are we telling you this? Well the Red Sox have won 78% (25 of 32) of their home games by more than 1 run. They have also won 10 of their last 12 vs. the Royals by more than 1 run as well so we think these are great odds for a team that is 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. KC.

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds -140 odds (July 28th 2011)
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New York posted an 8-2 victory Wednesday and are looking more like a playoff caliber club than their counterparts and in fact do have the better record. Instead the Mets find themselves victims of being in the National League East where Philadelphia and Atlanta are leaving the rest of the division in their rear view mirrors. The NYM have now three straight and need to keep it going long term to make a run at the playoffs but realistically the team must realize the team is playing for pride and little else. New York has been playing the role of spoiler to perfection the last several days against playoff minded Cincinnati with a solid combination of pitching and hitting which hasn’t always been the case in 2011 and a big part of the reason they are in third place in the East looking up. The Mets send Chris Capuano to the bump for the sweep but he has been on a personal three game slide. Capuano has been on the mediocre side of things in his past two outings allowing eight runs in 13.1 innings.
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Cincinnati has certainly looked flat in the first three games of a four game set against the Mets to fall four games below .500. Losing is bad enough but the bats and pitching has been less than inspiring but the good news is that the three teams ahead of the Reds in the National League Central aren’t distinguishing themselves as of yet which is keeping the Reds alive by default. It was another poor effort from Bronson Arroyo who allowed four earned runs in six innings and his 5.58 ERA is simply a liability especially the way Cincinnati is struggling at the plate. Their two run, seven hit performance won’t win many games either but there is ample time to fix what is broken and whether that happens is just a wait and see scenario. Right hander Homer Bailey gets the ball Thursday to break the team’s slide and give him his third consecutive victory in the process. Bailey generally wins when he pitches well and loses if he doesn’t and the Reds are desperate to get and stay hot.

Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals -128 MLB odds (July 26th 2011)
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On Tuesday the MLB Free system play is on the Washington Nationals. Game 902 at 7:05 eastern. The Nationals apply to a solid system that has cashed 14 of 17 times and plays on certain home favorites off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs vs an opponent off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs. Very simple and very effective. The Nationals are 10-3 with a day off and are scoring 5 runs per game the past week. They have J. Zimmernan going and they have won 7 of his last 9 starts. Florida counters with R. Nolasco and they have lost 12 of his last 15 starts. These two hooked up down in Florida on May 6th with Washington winning that one. Look for them to take game one of the series tonight. On Tuesday the lead play is from a 96% totals system that wins by over 5 runs per game + a 22-4 totals system. Monday card sweeps with both totals cashing over Texas and over St. Louis. Jump on now and cash out on Tuesday as bases stays hot. For the free play take Washington. RV

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -110 MLB Line (July 25th 2011)
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Dodgers -115 (2* FREE PLAY) The Dodgers have been on a little roll winning 3 of 4 and are at home against the struggling Rockies whose starters have a 5.48 ERA in 11 games since the All Star break. It looks like we have two young starters going in this one and I’m backing the home starter in Rubby De La Rosa who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rubby has looked good and has some nice movement on his pitches in a couple starts I saw from him he’s looked good. He’s got a 8.70 K/9 ratio and a 3.35 xFIP while in AAA this year he had 11.70 K/9 so we know he can dominate a line up. His main issues have been control and with an anxious team in Colorado coming to town because they have struggled to hit I think he can take advantage. Rockies are 7-15 in their last 22 in LA and are 18-44 in their last 62 road games as an under dog.

Juan Nicasio has been one bright spot since the All Star break for the Rockies, but oddly enough he’s not getting it done on the road. In 4 road starts he has a 9.00 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP and although he’s facing a Dodgers line up that has not hit a bunch he has to still pitch to Matt Kemp who went 2-3 with a homer off him in his lone start vs. the Dodgers. Also the Dodgers seem to hit in this series for whatever reason as they are hitting .297 scoring 5.9 runs in the last 9 match ups. Also Dodgers bullpen is pitching well 1.82 over last 13 games while the Rockies have struggled 4.80 over last 10 which could be a major factor with two young pitchers who will not go deep into games.

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Prediction: Colorado Rockies +108 odds (July 25th 2011)
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Off back-to-back blowout defeats, expect Colorado to get back in the win column against an L.A. club playing below .500 ball at home. The Rockies have the edge on the mound with scheduled starter Juan Nicasio. He has had some issues on the road, but I don’t him to have much trouble against a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.0 runs/game at home this season. The Rockies are 6-2 in Nicasio’s last 8 starts and he enters in top form. He’s allowed only 1 runs in his last 2 starts while going 7 innings in each. L.A. scheduled starter Rubby De La Rosa is 0-3 with an ERA of 4.94 in 4 home starts this season, and the Dodgers are 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. The Dodgers squeaked out a pair of close wins against Washington in their last 2 games but are only 3-10 in home games after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. They are losing by an average score of 5.4 to 1.7 in this spot.  Also, the Rockies have won 8 of their last 11 series openers. Take Colorado.
 
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Over 10.5 -110 MLB Odds (July 22nd 2011)
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I’m siding with the OVER in what should be a slugfest in the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers Game 1 Friday night. These are two of the most potent offenses in the game. Toronto puts up 4.8 RPG on the season, while Texas scores 4.9 RPG overall and 5.9 RPG at home. The Blue Jays have really been hitting the cover off the ball of late, batting .287 and scoring 7.1 RPG in their last seven contests. Both starters are in line to get rocked tonight.

Jo-Jo Reyes is 5-7 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Toronto. Reyes’ shortest outing this year came April 27 in Arlington. He allowed six runs in 2 2-3 innings of a 6-7 loss to the Rangers. Colby Lewis is 3-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Lewis is 2-4 with a 9.35 ERA and 1.808 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto. He gave up 6 earned runs, 11 base runners and 3 home runs in 5 innings in his lone start versus the Blue Jays this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -113 odds (July 22nd 2011)
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Jair Jurrjens is coming off easily his worst start of the season as he allowed six runs in five innings against Washington which makes this a perfect time to back him. He came into that game with a 1.87 ERA which shows how dominant he has been all season so one game cannot dictate what will take place going forward. On the road he has a 1.96 ERA in eight starts, all of which have been quality outings. He has not fared well in his career against the Reds but allowed one run in eight innings in his start this season.

Bronson Arroyo heads to the bump for Cincinnati and he is in the midst of a rough stretch. He has tossed four straight non-quality starts, posting an 8.25 ERA in the process. Only nine of his 19 starts on the season have been quality games and while he has been a little better at home, he is 3-7 with 5.35 ERA. He has been awesome during the day but at night, it is a different story as he has posted a 7.15 ERA in 13 starts under the lights. In his career against the Braves, Arroyo has a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 13 starts. 3* (909) Atlanta Braves

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Baseball Prediction: Minnesota TWins -126 MLB Line (July 17th 2011)
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On Sunday the free MLB Play is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 974 at 2:10 eastern. The Twins fit a nice 39-10 system that plays on home favorites off a 1 run home favored win and scored 4 or less runs with 5+ hits, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss, and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more hits. KC is just 4-24 away vs Leftys and 1-5 as a road dog in this range. The Twins have been playing much better ball right now and have under rated B. Duensing going. He has been solid vs KC with a 5-1 record and 2.03 Era. The Royals have Paulino and he is making his first start vs the Twins and has an overall Era of 4.91. Look for the Twins to get this one today. On Sunday the lead play is the 100% American League total of the Month backed with a PerfectTotals System and Several Key Power Angles. Contact at to jump on and cash. Top Play cashed big on Saturday with San Diego. More damage on Sunday. For the free Play take Minnesota. RV