Free MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135) vs. New York Yankeees
Wed Apr 23 ’08 8:10p – Click Here for Betting Odds
Mike Mussina will be making his fifth start of the season tonight, and he’ll toe the rubber sporting a 1-3 record with a 5.75 ERA. The Yankees lost each of his last two starts against the Red Sox, but his last effort was horrific only seeing him last three innings allowing five earned runs and seven hits to their hated rivals. He won two of his three starts against Chicago last season and sports an overall mark of 11-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in his career against the White Sox.

Chicago’s ace, Javier Vazquez, will look to pick up his fourth win of the season when he squares off against the Yanks for the fifth time in his career. He’s coming off another dominating start against Tampa Bay that saw him go six strong allowing six hits and two earned runs in the White Sox 9-2 victory. The two runs he allowed in the sixth inning stopped a streak of 15 shutout innings, and the lone walk he surrendered was the first against the last 75 batters he faced. However, he’s struggled against his former employer going 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in four career starts.

The Yankees are 0-2 this season as an underdog between +125 and +150 this season, and they’re 1-4 in Mike Mussina’s L/5 starts as an underdog. Making the Yanks even less attractive in this spot is the fact that they’re 6-14 their L/20 when installed a road underdog. On the flipside, the White Sox are 8-1 in Vazquez’ L/9 overall starts, and 5-0 his L/5 starts when installed a favorite between –110 and –150.

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Free Baseball Pick: St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates u8.5
Wed Apr 23 ’08 7:05p – Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
Todd Wellemeyer the Cardinals starting pitcher here tonight against the Pirates , has been a great addition to his teams pitching rotation this season, garnering a solid 2-0 record along with a stable 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The righty has struck out an average of one hitter per inning this season. He will face a Pirates offense that owns a lowly .232 overall BA. His pitching opponent from the Pirates , Ian Snell, is 2-1 on the season, along with a 4.07 ERA , and in his last start looked to have corrected some early season control problems. He will pitch to a Cards lineup that is hitting just .252 in road games this season. We have two capable hurlers on the hill tonight, and two inconsistent offenses facing them , which bodes well for a low scoring game in the PNC Park tonight. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 4-0 in Snells last 4 starts vs. National League Central . Under is 4-0 in Wellemeyers last 4 starts vs. National League Central. Snells team is 13-3 UNDER when h e starts against division opponents, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 7.3 RPG ! Play on the Under

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Free MLB Baseball Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (122)
Tue April 22 ’08 7:05p – Click Here for MLB Baseball Odds
Reason: Josh Beckett the ace of the Red Sox staff, started his season a little slowly , after being on the disabled list, but is now shaping into to form, delivering 16 strikeouts over his L/ 19 1/3 innings work , while holding opposition batters to a .200 average. I expect Beckett will continue his upward momentum and be hard on a inconsistent LA Angels offense that he has performed well against in the past, as is evident by a 3-0 record and 1.59 ERA in five appearances in this series, striking out 30 batters in the process. Final notes & Key Trends: Becket when he starts has seen his team win 16 of 20 , against a above .500 opponents like the Angels . Play on the Red Sox -1.5

San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros o8.0 (-120)
Tue Apr 22 ’08 8:05p
Now Jake Peavy is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we feel that the San Diego Padres are capable of scoring at least six runs in this game vs. the Houston Astros, which would make the Over rather easily attainable at this low number.

First of all, the Over is 26-8-2 in the Padres’ last 36 road games stretching back to last season, and San Diego road contests are averaging 9.10 runs this season, more than a full run higher than this total. Secondly, they are facing Brandon Backe, who was touched up for six runs and 10 hits in only three innings in his last start. Finally, the Houston bullpen is currently ranked 22nd out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.55 ERA.

Now granted, Peavy doesn’t figure to allow much, but if the Padres grab as big a lead as we expect here, we doubt Peavy will be allowed to go more than seven innings. That means the San Diego bullpen will see some action, and that unit has actually been worse than Houston’s so far, ranking 23rd with a 4.73 group ERA.

It may be tight for a while, but we do see at least nine runs being scored by the end of this game.

MLB Free Pick: Padres, Astros Over 8 (-120)

New York Yankees (-135)
Tue Apr 22 ’08 8:10p
Getting the starting nod for Joe Girardi’s club will be Chien-Ming Wang. The righty’s 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA, but he was roughed up badly in his last start at home against Boston. He was unable to make it past the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium for the first time in his big league career, and overall, it was just the fifth time in 84 career starts that he wasn’t able to go at least five. He allowed nine hits and eight earned runs in just four innings of work earning the no decision. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts at U.S. Cellular Field.

Contreras picked up his first victory in 2008 with a dominating performance that had Chicago management grinning from ear-to-ear his last time out. His offense put three on the board in the first inning after Jim Thome blasted his 510th career HR, and he made the lead stand over seven strong innings. He only threw 91 pitches allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out six, but most importantly, he didn’t issue a single walk. Contreras, who pitched for the Yankees during the 2003 and 2004 seasons, has a 2-4 record against his original big-league employer with a 3.96 ERA and 1.241 WHIP.

The Yankees are yet to cash as a –125 to –150 road favorites this season going 0-2, and their 1-5 their L/6 as a road favorite of –110 to –150. However, they’re 16-5 in Wang’s L/21 road starts and 5-1 the L/6 meetings with the White Sox. Chicago is surprisingly 0-3 with a days rest this season, 0-4 in Contreras’ L/4 starts against the Yankees, and a woeful 1-7 the L/8 times Contreras was installed a home underdog. This has also been a lower scoring series as the under has cashed in 15 of the L/22 meetings, and it’s 5-1-2 the L/8 times they’ve squared off at “The Cell”.

Free MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (-105)
Mon Apr 21 ’08 8:05p – Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
Adam Wainwright has been one of the most undervalued pitchers in the majors, dating back to last season. He was absolutely dominant down the stretch for the Cardinals in ’07, posting a 2.57 ERA in his final 19 starts, while allowing two runs or less 14 times during that span. This year, Wainwright has picked up right where he left off, lasting at least seven full innings in all three of his previous starts, with a 16-3 strikeout to walk ratio and a 2.78 ERA. Wainwright shut down this Brewers lineup last week, throwing 7.2 innings of five hit baseball. He threw seven innings of two hit, shutout baseball here at Miller Park against Milwaukee last August. Facing a Brewers lineup that is hitting just .223 against righties this year while averaging just four runs per game, look for Wainwright to continue his mastery of Milwaukee tonight.
On the other end of the equation, we’ve got Carlos Villanueva taking the mound for Milwaukee this evening, off to a very rough start: a 6.19 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and .338 batting average against in his first three outings. The Cardinals bashed Villanueva when these teams met in St Louis last week, knocking him out of the game in the fifth inning. Villanueva has yet to throw a quality start this season, while the Cardinals have been hammering righties to the tune of a .286 average and more than 5.1 runs per game. Throw in some bullpen woes for the Brew-Crew, with closer Eric Gagne unavailable after blowing the save yesterday working in his fourth straight ballgame, and the case for the Cardinals looks perfectly clear. Take St Louis.

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Free MLB Picks: Florida Marlins (-129)
Sun Apr 20 ’08 1:10p – Click Here for Baseball Odds
Reason: The Washington Nationals enter into this contest in a big time funk, having lost 13 of their last 15 games, , which gives this team, the worst record in the National league. Things do not look to get much better, as they will face one of the Florida Marlins top pitchers Scott Olsen , who is 2-0 on the season along with a very stable 3.05 ERA in 3 starts. Final notes & Key Trends: Nationals pitcher Odalis Perez is 0-3 along with a 4.35 ERA along with a 6.30 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in two road starts. Play on Florida

Free MLB Picks: Colorado Rockies (105)
Sun Apr 20 ’08 2:05p – Click Here for Baseball Odds
The Colorado Rockies had problems when visiting the Houston Astros in the past, but they have taken the first two games of this series and could further exorcise some demons by completing the sweep here.

The Astros had taken 20 of the last 24 head-to-head meetings here in Houston before this series began, but the Rockies won the first game 11-5 despite playing deep into the night in San Diego the day before, and they then won a 3-2 pitchers’ duel yesterday. Their starter Ubaldo Jimenez has more ability than he has shown so far, and he could have a break-out start here vs. an Astros team that is batting just .221 vs. right-handed pitching this season and have never faced him before.

The Rockies are also very familiar with Houston starter Shawn Chacon, who came up through the Colorado system. Now, Chacon has actually pieced together three straight Quality Starts, but he has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past, only to eventually implode and disappoint his backers. This seems like a nice spot for that to happen, vs. his former teammates that are averaging 6.00 runs per game in the last 10 games.

Finally, the Rockies have had a huge edge in the bullpen so far, with a collective pen ERA of 2.44 and WHIP of 1.07 in 55.1 innings, compared to a lofty 4.77 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 60.1 innings for the Houston bullpen.

MLB Free Pick: Rockies +105

Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros u9.0
Sat April 19 ’08 7:05p – Click Here for MLB Odds
Prediction: under
Reason: Wandy Rodriguez (1-0, 2.33), the Houston Astros starter , has been solid in his teams rotation, and remains among the NL ERA leaders. The southpaw breaking ball specialist, has been his best, at home in Minute Maid Park, allowing just 1 ER , in 14 1/3 innings of solid work, while garnering an extremely stingy 0.63 ERA. Rodriguez is 3-1 when starting against the Rockies with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.323 His pitching opponent , Aaron Cook(1-1, 3.79) the Rockies , righty starter, has also been solid this year, and remains one of the top options in his team pitching rotation. Cooke is backed, by a bullpen that owns a 2.45 road ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Cooke is 3-0 when starting against the Astros along with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.39. Considering the pitching matchup, I expect these two capable hurlers will help keep this contest to stay on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 10-4 in Rodriguezs L/14 home starts. Play under

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals u8.0 (-120)
Sat April 19 ’08 1:10p – Click Here for MLB Odds
Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants has some of the nastiest stuff in all of baseball, but the Giants don’t figure to give him much run support, so runs should be at a premium when they face the St. Louis Cardinals today.

Now Lincecum has managed to go 2-0 while pitching for a team that cannot score, and he already has 22 strikeouts while allowing 17 hits in 16 innings. He is a perfect two for two in Quality starts vs. the Cardinals also with the Giants winnings each of those games, and the last time he faced St. Louis last Sunday, he recorded 11 strikeouts while allowing two runs on six innings.

Now granted, Joel Pineiro was the Cardinals starter vs. Lincecum in that game also, and he was bombed for six runs and 10 hits while lasting only 3.2 innings against the normally light-hitting Giants. However, facing a team for a second straight start is usually to the advantage of the pitcher, so look for Pineiro to make the necessary adjustments for an improved performance.

Besides, we are not sure the Giants are capable of repeating that offensive display over anyone, so look for an Under in this spot.

MLB Free Pick: Giants, Cardinals Under 8 (-120)

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MLB Free Pick: Seattle Mariners (150)
Fri April 18 ’08 10:05p – Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
Joe Saunders of the Los Angeles Angles was a popular fantasy baseball sleeper selection before this season, but it appears that the value on him is gone at this price vs. the Seattle Mariners.

Yes, Saunders had an outstanding spring, and that has carried over to his first three starts as he has a 1.27 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 21 innings with the Angels winning all three of his starts. However, has he really done enough over his brief career to merit this much favoritism over a capable opponent? Besides, he has just one Quality Start in four outings vs. the Mariners, falling two-thirds of an inning short of a QS last week when he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings against Seattle despite allowing nine men to reach base.

Now R.A. Dickey is making his first start as a Mariner, and he was mediocre at best when he started for the Texas Rangers in recent seasons. However, Dickey has had some success here in Anaheim, going a perfect two for two in Quality Starts here while allowing a total of four runs and 14 baserunners in 14 innings. If we add in his home starts vs. the Halos while he was with Texas, Dickey is actually four for five in Quality Starts against them in his short career.

All things considered, this price seems inflated to us, so we will go with the value play on Seattle at the generous number.

MLB Free Pick: Mariners +150 – Courtesy of LT Profits

Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (125)
Fri April 18 ’08 2:20p – Click Here for MLB Betting Odds

Ian Snell will put his 2-0 mark on the line when he takes to the bump this afternoon to pitch against the Cubs for the first time this season. To date, he owns a solid 3.93 ERA allowing 20 hits and nine runs (8 earned) with a K/BB ratio of 15/4 in a little over 18 innings on the year. The Pirates are 3-0 in the games he’s started this season. He went 6 1/3rd innings in his last start against Cincinnati allowing nine hits and three earned runs in the Buccos 4-3 victory. In three starts against the Cubs last season, the Pirates went 1-2 but won his lone start at Wrigley.

Lefty Rich Hill is yet to garner a decision this season, and to say he’s gotten off to a rocky ’08 start would be putting it very mildly. In two starts this year, he’s only pitched a total of nine innings, which includes his last start against the Pirates back on April 10th where he was yanked after three innings. He’s only allowed a combined five earned runs and seven hits, but his control has been shaky at best and he’s been on a very short leash. He had a couple of bullpen sessions throughout his seven-day lay-off to try and work on his mechanics. The Cubs are 4-2 in Hill’s starts against Pittsburgh in his career.

The Cubs swept the Pirates last week at PNC, so Pittsburgh will most definitely look to be returning the favor starting this afternoon where they find themselves +125 underdogs.
The Cubs have won six straight against the Buccos dating back to last season, and have had their number at home winning four of the last five overall. However, Pittsburgh is a moneymaking 5-1 in Snell’s last six road starts and 5-0 in his last five starts in the opening game of a series.

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Free MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (100)
Thu April 17 ’08 7:05p – Click Here for MLB Odds
Gavin Floyd flirted with history his last time out going 7 1/3rd innings before allowing a hit to Tigers SS Edgar Renteria in the Sox 7-0 win over the Tigers. Floyd threw 107 pitches in the start allowing one hit and no earned runs with a K/BB ratio of 4/4. He’s currently 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA, and will be facing Baltimore this evening for the first time in his career. In his lone road start this season, he defeated the Detroit Tigers again but that was when their bats were still being held silent.

Opposing him will be righty Jeremy Guthrie who’s pitched brilliantly throughout his last two starts. Combined, he’s allowed 14 hits and four earned runs in 13.1 innings of work with a K/BB ratio of 6/3. He’s worked into the seventh inning in each of his last two starts, but had late rallies by the opposing team erase him as the pitcher of record in both. He got roughed up by the White Sox in his only start against them last year giving up nine hits and six runs (5 ER) in just 3.2 innings of work in the O’s 9-7 defeat.

With last night’s victory, the White Sox are 9-4 their L/13 visits to Camden Yards, and a perfect 5-0 their L/5 road games as an underdog. Making matters worse for the O’s is the fact that they’re 4-10 in Guthrie’s L/14 home starts and 1-6 the L/7 times Guthrie faced a winning team. – Courtesy of Mike Rose

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Free MLB Baseball Pick: San Diego Padres (-155)
Thu Apr 17 ’08 10:05p – Click Here for MLB Odds
Jake Peavy (3-0 , 1.64 ERA), the NL’s reigning Cy Young Award winner, looks to continue his top tier performances as he goes for his fourth straight win to start his 2008 campaign this Thursday when the Padres close out a three-game series with the visiting Rockies. After getting buried 10-2 yesterday ,the Padres will be very motivated to get some redemption, and have the edge with their ace on the hill. Note: The Rockies will send Jeff Francis (0-2, 9.53) to the mound in return . Francis is fast becoming notorious for early season struggles, and has continued down that path this season, as was the case in both of his starts. Final notes & Key Trends: Francis went (1-3, 6.61 ERA in five starts) vs the Padres last year. Play on San Diego

Free MLB Pick: Washington Nationals (150)
Thu Apr 17 ’08 7:10p – Click Here for MLB Odds
The New York Mets have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the underdog Washington Nationals to avoid the sweep here.

This could be considered more of a play against Mets starter Nelson Figueroa, who does not merit this much favoritism over anyone. Yes he pitched well in his Mets debut as a starter, allowing two runs and only two hits in six innings, but keep in mind that was his first start in four years. We simply do not trust him at this big price at this point in time.

Granted, Nationals starter John Lannan got bombed by the Atlanta Braves in his last start after pitching well in his seasonal debut. However, we still consider the starting pitching matchup here a wash, which immediately makes Washington worth a look as big dogs. We expect both bullpens to get called on fairly early here, and the Nats have the deeper pen in our opinion.

The Nationals gave the Mets fits last season, in fact sweeping a three-game series here at Shea Stadium during the New Yorkers’ incredible choke at the end of the year, and we look for the Nats to salvage a game in this series at a very nice price.

MLB Free Pick: Nationals +150