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It’s amazing what some quality pitching atop the rotation can do. I’m not talking about 4-5 terrific starters, just one or two guys to anchor the rotation. Two good starters can have a domino effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. A pair of starters going 7 quality innings every 5 days means less work for the pen, basically giving almost 2 days off every 5-6 days. It also takes the pressure off the No. 3, 4 and 5 starters.

Underdogs in baseball offer the best wagering value. One way to assess a team’s chances as a dog or to identify a team that is undervalued by oddsmakers is to see if they have at least two reliable starters. The surprising Baltimore Orioles started this season 14-17 as a dog, including 20-10 under the total in those games. A key to their success has been the young one-two punch atop the rotation of Daniel Cabrera (5-1, 3.48) and Brian Burres.

The Orioles just won at the Yankees 12-2 as a dog behind Cabrera, then nearly took the series, losing 2-1 in the finale. It was 1-1 late in the game. Burress allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings, but the Orioles managed just five hits in falling 2-1 to the Yankees. Those two have kept them in every game. Baltimore’s pitching is 6th in the AL.

A team just ahead of them in pitching is another surprise, Tampa Bay. Scott Kazmir and James Shields provide a terrific one-two punch atop the rotation, while Edwin Jackson is improving. All 3 regularly go six-plus innings. This week marks the beginning of a season-long, 10-game homestand at Tropicana Field, where the Rays have won 12 of their past 13 games.

Before starter Andy Sonnanstine was roughed up by the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay starters had a 2.10 ERA in their previous 14 games. Rays pitchers have given up just one home run in the past 10 home games. Edwin Jackson has allowed just one earned run in his past three starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay started 16-8 at home, 10-9 as an underdog, and 18-6 under the total at home! Good starting pitching is the biggest reason for all three of those records.

And how about those first-place Marlins? They started 17-16 as a dog! Scott Olsen (4-1) and veteran Mark Hendrickson (6-2) have been the big guns that anchor the staff. Hendrickson averages 6 innings per start while Olsen averages around 7. But the guy to watch is 22-year old Andrew Miller, who is starting to put it together. Miller was 0-2 with a 9.68 ERA after his first four starts with the Marlins. Since then, Miller has gone 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA. And he has relinquished only two runs over his past 22 innings.

He had a career-high nine strikeouts in a 4-0 win over first-place Arizona, completing a 3-game sweep. And they were an underdog in all three games at home against the D-Backs. “Personally, I hope they keep counting us out,” Miller said of those waiting for the Marlins to collapse. “I really don’t mind if they count us out until they can’t anymore.” With an MLB-low $22 million payroll and a roster full of young faces, the Marlins are the surprise team thus far. Just as amazing, the Diamondbacks sent out two aces and three strong starters in the series, Micah Owings, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and the Marlins whipped them all.

The Angels are another team slowly getting it together. John Lackey has returned to the rotation while 25-year old Ervin Santana has been great, finally harnessing his electric stuff. The pitching has been the key, going 6-7 as a dog and 29-19 under the total. ‘We pitch and play defense,’ Mike Scioscia said last week. ‘It’s really the foundation of our club.’

Even Vladimir Guerrero has been relatively cold. He entered last week with only four home runs, the lowest total of his career for the first 45 games of a season. Power is down all around major league baseball, in fact, probably a result of the recent crackdown on steroids.

Another team that has been great as an underdog is Houston, starting 15-11 as a dog! The pitching has been average as they are still trying to get ace Roy Oswalt back on track. Still, the relief staff has been strong and note that Houston is 18-8 under the total as a dog. They are just .500 as a favorite, but bite best a dog.

Free MLB Baseball Picks: Chicago White Sox (135)
Tue May 27 ’08 7:05p – Courtesy of LT Profits
The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians continue to go in totally opposite direction after the White Sox took the series opener here last night, and Chicago merits a play as a nice-sized dog. Last night’s victory brings the Sox to 10-2 in their last 12 games. The sometimes erratic Mark Buehrle has been very sharp while winning two games during this hot streak, allowing a total of two runs and nine hits in 13.2 innings. The last outing was against these Indiana, whom Buehrle limited to one and on only two hits in seven frames. The White Sox have also had a steady bullpen that now ranks sixth in the Major Leagues with a 3.14 pen ERA, so if Buehrle reverts to the bad form he is sometimes prone to, at least Chicago is a still a Bullpen System play. Now Cleveland’s Aaron Laffey lost that last start to Buehrle, and yes we usually like to go with the pitcher that lost the first meeting when there is a pitching rematch in consecutive starts. However, it is very hard to like the Indians right now considering that they are hitting a woeful .232 as a team overall and a disgusting .210 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games. As talented as Laffey seems to be with his 1.60 ERA in five starts, he still can’t win 0-0. We will go with the hotter ad better hitting team at this nice price. MLB Free Picks: White Sox +135
 
MLB Baseball Free Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-105)
Tue May 27 ’08 10:05p – Courtesy of LT Profits
A.J. Burnett is in one of his hot streaks right now, and he gives the Toronto Blue Jay the edge over the Oakland Athletics tonight. Burnett has been puzzling scouts for years, as he seems to have Cy Young stuff at times yet always seems to underachieve. Well, he has now recorded three consecutive Quality Starts, and he is blowing people away lately, with 31 strikeouts in 26 innings over his last four outings. He also pitched very well in his only career outing here in Oakland last season, allowing one run and just four hits with nine strikeouts in seven innings. If he is in need of assistance, he has he support of a Toronto bullpen that leads the American League with a 2.88 pen ERA. Now we are high on Oakland’s Greg Smith, but he has tailed off lately after an excellent start. In fact, he is 0-3 in his last three appearances with a 4.48 ERA and a very high 1.53 WHIP. Smith is also catching a Toronto lineup that is starting to heat up after being dormant for most of the season, as the Jays are batting .284 as a team the last 10 games. Both teams are carrying winning streaks into this series, with the Blue Jays having won five in a row and Oakland winning four straight, but we look for Toronto to keep their streak going behind Burnett and that fine bullpen. MLB Free Picks: Blue Jays -105

Free Baseball Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks (-147)
Tue May 27 ’08 9:40p – Courtesy of Alex Smart
The Arizona DBacks have played their best baseball at home this season, winning 6 of their L/7 and 19 of 27 overall. Tonight they look to continue that success against a San Francisco Giants team that they have owned here at Chase Field , recording 4 straight wins and 11 of 13. The Diamondbacks are also 4-1 against the Giants this season and have won 14 of the last 20 overall confrontations. Considering the DBacks current domination in this series, and the DBacks positive home field advantage in 2008 , I like their chances of bringing us home some dough. Final notes & Key Trends: Arizona starter Dan Haren, is a perfect 5-0 at home this season along with a stingy 2.27 ERA in 6 starts. Play on Arizona

Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals u8.0 (100)
Mon May 26 ’08 1:35p
The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals combined for 13 runs in the Nats’ 7-6 extra-inning win yesterday, but don’t expect similar fireworks in today’s holiday matinee.

Ben Sheets is off to a 5-1 start for Milwaukee, and that does not tell the whole story, as he has actually been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Sheets has a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 61.2 innings, and he is holding the opposition to a tiny .263 On Base Percentage. He should be dominant here vs. a Washington lineup that is hitting a pathetic .232 vs. right-handed pitchers this season including an even more dismal .222 over the last 10 games.

Sheets’ biggest obstacle to another victory here though may be run support. The Brewers are batting a modest .241 vs. right-handed pitching on the road this year, and Nationals starter Jason Bergmann is in raging current form. Bergmann has tossed 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts while allowing a grand total of eight hits with 14 strikeouts. He also tossed a gem in his only start vs. Milwaukee last season, permitting only one run and two hits in six innings.

Thus, the Under is the way to go here as we expect both offenses to scramble for runs.

MLB Free Pick: Brewers, Nationals Under 8 (+100)
 
Chicago White Sox (-110)
Mon May 26 ’08 7:05p
Javier Vazquez is quietly having a very fine season for the Chicago White Sox, and they get the call over Paul Byrd and the Cleveland Indians in Cleveland tonight.

Vazquez has a 3.53 ERA and an excellent 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts covering 65.2 innings. He has seven Quality Starts and he allowed only four runs in two of the non-quality efforts, and he is averaging just about one strikeout per inning with 65 punch-outs against just 13 walks, a nice 5/1 ratio.

Vazquez should also be familiar with the Cleveland lineup having faced the Tribe five times since the start of last season, and he allowed three earned runs in four of those outings. As if that is not enough, the White Sox also rank ninth in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA at 3.29, making them a Bullpen System play here.

You just never know what you will get from the inconsistent Byrd, who has just two Quality Starts in his last five outings but did not allow a single run in 15 innings in the two quality outings. We are looking for the “bad” Byrd to show up again today after he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings vs. this same White Sox lineup last Wednesday.

Finally, these two teams are simply heading in opposite directions, as Chicago has won nine of their last 11 games while Cleveland is only 1-8 in their last nine contests. Look for both of those streaks to continue.

MLB Free Pick: White Sox -110

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Lt Profits Free Pick: Chicago White Sox (100)
Sun May 25 ’08 8:05p – Click Here for Baseball Odds
The Los Angeles Angels have taken the first two games of this series, but we are looking for the Chicago White Sox to avoid the home sweep in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game.

Chicago’s Jose Contreras is having a fine year with a 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 59.2 innings, and he is in peak form right now. Contreras has allowed exactly one run in each of his last three starts while allowing a grand total of just 14 hits in 20 innings. Furthermore, he is working on an amazing streak of 10 consecutive Quality Starts against the Angels, and he has allowed exactly one earned run in four of his last six starts against them.

One of those outings came this year in Anaheim, where he allowed only four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 White Sox victory. Also, should Contreras be in need of relief, Chicago ranks eighth in the Major Leagues with a 3.31 bullpen ERA. Comparatively, the Angels rank 28th with a 4.55 pen ERA.

Now John Lackey has certainly been sharp in his first two starts off of the Disabled List, allowing two runs in 14 innings. However, he is simply running into a hot pitcher here, and if both starters keep their respective opponents in check and this becomes a battle of the bullpens, the advantage would surely be with the White Sox. Besides, Lackey has been just average in his last four starts vs. the White Sox, allowing a total of 13 earned runs in 28 innings.

We look for the White Sox to scrape together a couple of more run off of Lackey than we expect the red-hot Contreras to give up, and for the Chicago bullpen to seal the deal.

MLB Free Pick: White Sox +100

Cincinnati Reds (120)
Sun May 25 ’08 4:05p – Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
The Cincinnati Reds have taken two of the first three games of this four-game set vs. the hitless San Diego Padres, and we look for the Reds to win the series today.

Greg Maddux of the Padres is obviously not what he used to be, and he has become more hittable than ever lately, allowing 30 hits in 21 innings over his last four starts. Had did not go beyond six innings in any of those outings, and what was supposed to be a San Diego strength, the bullpen, has struggled with a collective 4.47 ERA, ranking 26th in baseball. Do not expect Maddux’s stamina to suddenly improve today vs. this left-handed laden Cincinnati lineup.

Now Reds starter Matt Belisle may not be much, but he has allowed three runs or less in two of his last three starts, and truth be told, the San Diego offense can make any half-decent pitcher look like the second coming of Cy Young. The Padres are hitting a miserable .237 as a team overall, and they have actually been worse at home, batting a pathetic .223 here.

As a result, San Diego has lost 27 of their last 37 games overall, and we look for their struggled to continue here.

MLB Free Pick: Reds +120

Milwaukee Brewers (100)
Sat May 24 ’08 7:10p – MLB Baseball Betting Picks
Even though the Milwaukee Brewers have struggled on the road, the Washington Nationals are a sub-.500 team at home at 12-13, and we simply refuse to believe that John Lannan is as good as he has looked.

Lannan was never that highly regarded, which makes his 3.40 ERA in nine starts this year that much more surprising. However, he has alternated Quality Starts with bad starts in each of his last four outings, and if that pattern continues, he would be in line for a bad outing today. We are looking for exactly that, as it is inevitable that Lannan’s ERA will rise to its proper level, given his rather limited talent.

Seth McClung is making his first start of the year for Milwaukee, but he has pitched well out of the bullpen, with a 3.54 ERA in 20.1 relief innings. He did show some nice flashes when starting for the Tampa Bay Rays two years ago, and this is a nice spot for his first National League start, given that the Nationals are batting a woeful .218 as a team in their last 10 games.

Meanwhile the Brewers have crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .342 average in their last 10 contests, show they should get to the soft-tossing southpaw Lannan tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Brewers +100

Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
Sat May 24 ’08 3:55p – MLB Baseball Odds
Randy Johnson of the Arizona Diamondbacks turned back the clock in his last start vs. the normally potent Detroit Tigers lineup, and if that start wasn’t a mirage, look for him to continue his past success vs. the Atlanta Braves here.

Johnson tossed seven scoreless innings vs. Detroit, allowing six hits and striking out five. That outing marked only Johnson’s second Quality Start of the season, but Arizona as a team has won his last five starts, so at the very least he has pitched well enough to keep them in games.

He certainly has a proven track record vs. Atlanta, holding the Braves scoreless in three of his last four career starts against them including a perfect game in this stadium. If Johnson reverts to his more modest form prior to his last outing, at least the D-Backs rank fourth in the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.25, making them a Bullpen System play today.

Now Atlanta’s Jorge Campillo was brilliant in first start in three years vs. the Mets last week, allowing only three hits in six scoreless innings. However, we feel that Johnson is more likely to duplicate his last performance than the less proven Campillo, especially considering that the Arizona offense finally showed some signs of life while putting up 11 runs last night.

The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings here in Atlanta, and we look for them to extend that success today.

MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks -110

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Alex Smart Free MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers (-150)
Fri May 23 ’08 7:05p
The Detroit Tigers just finished sweeping the Seattle Mariners behind a red hot offense that pounded out 30 runs in 3 games on 44 hits.HC Jim Leylands Tigers team have finally awoken from and early season slumber, which makes them good bets , against ,just about anybody, right now, especially when playing at home in Motown, where they have averaged 5.6 RPG on the season. I also expect Tigers thrower Armondo Galarraga(3-1, 3.06 ERA) , to continue his consistent efforts, as is evident by his team winning 5 of his 6 starts. Final notes & Key Trends: The Tigers have won 4 straight at home in this series, and 11 of the L/15 overall meetings. The Twins are 4-11 in their L/15 road games, and have lost their starting pitchers (Sloweys) L/5 starts as an underdog. Play on Detroit

LT Profits Free MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies (-105)
Fri May 23 ’08 8:05p
The two starting pitchers for the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros tonight will never be confused with Cy Young, but the Phils have the much better bullpen and they must be the more confident team as well after beating Houston ace Roy Oswalt Thursday.

Besides, as bas as Philadelphia’s Adam Eaton has been, he did have one of his better starts this year vs. these Astros when he recorded a Quality Start, allowing three runs in six innings of a 4-3 Phillies win on April 15. Eaton has allowed exactly two runs in two of his last four starts, so it is not as if he is incapable of turning in a solid performance. Still, the key for the Phillies tonight will probably be the bullpen, which currently leads the Major Leagues with a collective 2.86 ERA.

Now Brandon Backe of the Astros has actually been decent lately, but he was terrible in his first start vs. Philadelphia, allowing six runs on 10 hits and two walks while lasting only three innings. Backe has a high 1.58 WHIP overall, and he is catching the Phillies at a bad time as they are just starting to break out of their offensive slump, scoring 19 runs the last two games.

Finally, fragile Phils closer Brad Lidge got a save in his first appearance in Houston as a visiting player last night, so he should be more relaxed if he is called on again tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Phillies -105
 
LT Profits Free MLB Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Fri May 23 ’08 10:40p
This may look like a starting pitching mismatch between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, but Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has been way off lately and the Dodgers’ Derek Lowe is simply not as bad as he has looked.

Wainwright allowed 12 hits in just 5.2 innings of a 9-8 Cardinal victory over the Tampa Bay Rays last week, and that came on the heels of another poor outing in Milwaukee where he was lit up for eight runs in six innings. As if that was not bad enough, one of the worst stars or Wainwright’s career came here in Los Angeles, when he was torched for eight earned runs in only 2.2 innings last season.

Now granted, Lowe has been a gas can in his last four starts, but it is hard to believe he can lose his form as quickly as he did after allowing three earned runs or less in each of his first six starts. The good news is that he still has a nice 3.70 ERA and 1.11 ERA when pitching at home this season, so maybe he can finally regain his form tonight. At the very least, if he struggles again, at least he has the support of a Dodger bullpen that ranks second in the National League with a 3.10 ERA.

That makes the Dodgers a Bullpen System play here, and that angle is +4.55 units this year after averaging +97 units the last three years.

MLB Free Pick: Dodgers -120

Mike Rose Free MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates (155)
Fri May 23 ’08 7:05p
Carlos Zambrano will make his 11th start of the season amidst rumors of him having problems with his throwing shoulder. He’s vehemently denied the rumors all week long, but his last outing leaves cause for concern after getting yanked after just four innings of work against these same Pirates who tagged him for seven hits and five runs (four earned). He enters this start with a solid 6-1 record and 2.45 ERA, but the Cubs have managed to win just six of his 10 overall starts. He had won his previous two starts against Pittsburgh before last weeks no decision, and is 9-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Pirates.

Opposing him will be left-hander Zach Duke who will be facing the Cubs for the second consecutive start and will take the same approach into this outing as he did into the last. Duke mixed up his pitches and limited the number of first-pitch fastballs he threw in order to keep the free-swinging Cubs off balance. He didn’t pick up a decision in the start even though he settled down after allowing three early runs to allow just one more tally in his final five innings of work. Overall, Duke’s 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA, but he’s 2-1 at home and his ERA drops almost a full point to 3.42. Duke’s 4-3 against Chicago with a 2.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 11 career starts.

Chicago’s 11-1 the L/12 overall meetings with their division rivals, and they’re a solid 10-5 against left-handed starters this season. However, Chicago’s only managed to beat the Pirates in two of Zambrano’s L/8 starts against them. Chicago’s dominated at home this year, but their fortune on the road has been a different story. The return on Pittsburgh at home is worthy of a $$$-Line wager in this spot when taking Chicago’s road woes into consideration.

Minnesota Twins (-110)
Thu May 22 ’08 1:10p – Click Here for MLB Odds
Livan Hernandez of the Minnesota Twins and Vicente Padilla of the Texas Rangers are each a surprising 6-2 while pitching for non-winning teams, but with home field and a superior bullpen behind him, we will side with Hernandez at this cheap price.

Hernandez has a very respectable 3.88 ERA overall this season, but he has done his best pitching here at home where he is 4-0 with a 3.55 ERA, and he is also in fine current form with a sizzling 2.82 ERA in is last three starts. Hernandez did get bombed for seven runs and nine hits while lasting just 2.2 innings in Arlington in April, but this looks like a nice shot at redemption at home. He has the support of a Minnesota bullpen that ranks fifth in the American League with a 3.43 ERA.

Now Padilla actually has slightly better numbers than Hernandez, with a 3.16 ERA overall, a 3.28 ERA on the road and a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. Assuming that the starters have a standoff however, the key to this contest will be the bullpens, and the Rangers rank did last in all of baseball with a 5.04 pen ERA. Since the Twins are actually ties for 10th in the Major Leagues, they qualify as one of our Bullpen System plays here.

Throw in the fact that Minnesota is 12-5 in the last 17 home games and the Twins become a rather easy choice here.

MLB Free Pick: Twins -110 – Click Here for More Free MLB Picks from LT Profits

Baltimore Orioles (145)
Thu May 22 ’08 7:05p
The New Yankees evened the series with the Baltimore Orioles with an 8-0 pummeling last night, but we look for the Orioles to take the rubber match at a very nice price.

The bottom line here is that Yankee starter Ian Kennedy does not deserve to be a prohibitive favorite like this over anybody at this time. Kennedy is winless at 0-3 with the Yankees going 1-5 as a team whenever he starts, and his key numbers are simply atrocious, as he owns an 8.48 ERA and 1.88 WHIP while lasting just a total of 28.2 innings, an average of less than five innings per start. He has already had one poor outing vs. the Orioles this year, allowing four earned runs on five hits and five walks in only 2.2 innings at Camden Yards in April.

Beside, Baltimore starter Brian Burress has performed quite admirably despite his 4-4 record, with a very good 3.47 ERA and a respectable 1.34 WHIP in 49.1 innings. He also tossed a gem vs. the Bronx Bombers in Camden earlier this year, hurling 5.2 scoreless innings. He is backed by an Orioles bullpen that ranks third in the American League with a 3.32 ERA, making Baltimore a Bullpen System play.

We do not feel that Kenney will be in the Yankees starting rotation much longer (Joba Chamberlain anyone?), and tonight may be his last straw.

MLB Free Pick: Orioles +145 – Click Here for More Free Picks from LT Profits & MLB Odds