Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Prediction: San Diego +131 odds (May 2nd 2013)
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The Padres ran into a hot pitcher (at least for one game) in Scott Feldman last night, as he held them to three hits and struck out 12 over the course of a complete game victory. I don’t expect a repeat performance on Thursday, as the Cubs turn to Travis Wood.

Wood has been solid in the early going this season, but as far as I’m concerned he’s been pitching over his head, and we should see some regression moving forward. Don’t miss out on all of Sean Murphy’s expert MLB predictions for May 2nd 2013 at Touthouse.com. Purchase a premium package today!

Note that Wood has posted ERAs north of four in each of the last two seasons. He checks into Thursday’s start sporting an excellent 2.25 ERA. Note that he faced the Padres right here at Wrigley Field last season and gave up seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings of work.

San Diego will counter with Eric Stults. The journeyman left-hander has struggled over his last two starts, both coming against the Giants. He has proven he can win on the road, however, guiding the Padres to victories in New York (against the Mets) and Los Angeles (against the Dodgers) this season. He’s struck out 13 while walking only three in 18 innings of work away from home.

Bouncing back from an ugly loss often isn’t as difficult to do in baseball as it is in some of the other sports. The season is a long grind, and there will be games where the offense simply can’t get going – just as we saw from the Pads’ last night. That poor performance doesn’t change the fact that San Diego has been playing well lately, and I look for it to foil Chicago’s chances of picking up a series win on Thursday afternoon. Take San Diego (1*).

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Baseball Prediction: Boston -131 odds (May 1st 2013)
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The Boston Red Sox have a massive edge on the mound tonight and I’ll lay the juice because of it. Also, Boston has been one of the best teams in the league at 18-8, while Toronto has been one of the worst at 10-17.

Clay Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 1.009 WHIP through five starts this season for the Red Sox. Mark Buehrle is washed up, going 1-1 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.518 WHIP through five starts for Toronto this year.

Buchholz is 8-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Buehrle is 7-8 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox are 24-5 in Buchholz’s last 29 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Boston is 44-17 in Buchholz’s last 61 starts as a favorite overall. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Prediction: Los Angeles -135 odds (April 30th 2013)
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies tonight. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 by a final of 12-2, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own tonight.

Much of the public is not familiar with Hyun-Jin Ryu, which is why he has been underrated in the early going this season. Ryu is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in two road outings.

Colorado’s Jorge De La Rosa will be highly intimidated going up against a team he has never beaten tonight. The left-hander is 0-7 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles. In fact, the Rockies are 0-9 in those contests. Enough said. Bet the Dodgers Tuesday.

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Baseball Picks: April 29th 2013
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Dodgers -136 odds
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This is a 1* free baseball pick on the LA Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies on Monday night (10:10 EST).

Tyler Chatwood (0-0, 6.00 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. Chatwood made his first start of the year on Wednesday vs. the Braves and gave up five runs off nine hits over six frames of work, lucky to come away with a no-decision (Chatwood was called up from Triple-A Colorado to make the spot start). He’ll be opposed by Ted Lilly (0-0, 1.80 ERA) who also made his first start of the season last time out, but Lilly’s experience was much better than Chatwood’s as he’d strike out seven over five frames of one-run ball vs. the Mets. Lilly now has a big opportunity to build off that performance (note Lilly has posted a very respectable 3.71 ERA for his career at Dodgers Stadium). And while past success does not necessarily mean one will do so again in the future, it’s still significant to note that Lilly was 2-0 with a respectable 4.38 ERA vs. Colorado last season. While the Rockies have jumped out to a quick start to the year, their achilles heel remains their play on the road, going just .500 entering Sunday away from friendly confines thus far. I believe the clear talent and experience level on the mound justifies in laying this mid-sized price. How about you?

Baseball Gambling Picks: April 27th 2013
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Tampa Bay -115 odds
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The Tampa Bay Rays have a big edge on the mound tonight with Matt Moore over Gavin Floyd. After losing the first two games of this series to the White Sox, I look for them to bounce back with a Game 3 victory behind their dominant left-hander.

Moore is 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.923 WHIP through four starts this season. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 hits while striking out 29 batters over 26 innings this year.

Gavin Floyd had really struggled for Chicago, going 0-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.616 WHIP through four starts this season. Moore is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox.

The Rays are 6-0 in Moore’s last 6 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 2-8 in Floyd’s last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet the Rays Saturday.

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MLB Predictions: April 27th 2013
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Over 7.5 -110 odds
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On the surface this total seems right based on how well A.J. Burnett and Jake Westbrook are pitching. But Burnett never has been consistent and Westbrook is pitching way above his head. He’s been very lucky so far.

The last time Burnett pitched at Busch Stadium he surrendered a career-high 12 runs on 12 hits in just 2 2/3 innings during a 12-3 loss last May 2.

The Cardinals have a very efficient offense ranking fourth in runs scored with 45 percent of their baserunners scoring. Unlike other teams, the Cardinals know how to plate baserunners.

Pittsburgh is going to get its share of runs against Westbrook, whose 1.25 ERA is highly misleading considering he’s allowed 32 baserunners in 21 2/3 innings. Westbrook is walking close to six batters per nine innings while striking out less than four per nine innings. Westbrook has a career ERA of 4.26 and a career WHIP of 1.40. He’s due to get lit up.

The Pirates have a strong history versus Westbrook, who is 1-7 against Pittsburgh with a 5.91 ERA in nine starts. The over is 18-7-2 during Westbrook’s last 27 home starts. Westbrook can’t rely on his inconsistent bullpen either.

Note, too, that the over is 9-1-1 the past 11 times these teams have met in St. Louis. Scheduled home plate umpire Mike Winters has a tight strike zone, but the over has cashed in three of his four home plate appearances this season.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Pick: Toronto +126 odds (April 26th 2013)
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Ryan is 3-1 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has TWO 25* Titans going tonight. He is an amazing 18-7 making 12.20 units/unit wagered in MLB. He is 182-116-4 for 61% winners with 25* Titans spanning all sports.

10* graded MLB baseball pick on the Toronto Blue Jays as they take on the NY Yankees in AL action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. NY is in a poor spot, noting they are just 6-14 (-13.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. 5-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Both starters have not had their best to start the season, but Josh Johnson is getting it together and had far better command in his last start. Moreover, he is far more likely to pitch through the 6th than Yankee starter Nova. In addition, Toronto has a significantly better bullpen than the Yankees. Blue Jays sport a 2.21 ERA with a 1.336 WHIP in 10 road games spanning 36 ? innings of work. Note, that Yankee skipper Girardi is just 11-17 (-10.9 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games as the manager of the Yankees.

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Betting Pick: Over 8.5 -110 odds (April 26th 2013)
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These two teams have played 13 Overs in their last 17 games in Kansas City and that trend will continue on Friday night.

Kansas City returns home after a 4-3 road trip thru Atlanta, Boston, and Detroit. Now they host the Cleveland Indians who have won three of their last four games after losing their previous five games. Ervin Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in four starts for Kansas City. He has had his problems with the Indians going 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 14 career starts against them. Cleveland is 6-5 on the road hitting .270 while putting up 5.4 runs per game. Their offense has scored 29 runs in the last four games with 19 of those runs coming in one game.

Scott Kazmir’s debut in Houston after two years off was a rough one; he allowed 6 runs and seven hits in just over three innings. Kazmir gave up 5 runs to the Royals in 2011 in just over one inning of work. Miguel Tejada has seen the lefty the most and has 11 hits in 28 total at-bats against him. The Royals have scored 4 runs or more in four straight games and they are hitting .274 at home where they’ve only played six games so far this season. These two teams have played 13 Overs in their last 17 games in Kansas City and that trend will continue on Friday night.

MLB Picks: April 26th 2013
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Baltimore +113 odds
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After a great start to the season, the A’s have stumbled. They started 12-4, which included a nine-game winning streak, but they are just 1-6 over their last seven games including a 10-2 blowout loss last night to open this series.

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Four of the losses have come by three or more runs and despite the one victory being 13-0, Oakland has been outscored by 12 runs overall during this stretch. The A’s are hoping Tom Milone can turn things around but I’m not counting on it. He has a 4.26 ERA through four starts including a poor effort at Tampa Bay last time out, allowing six runs, four earned, on eight hits in 6.2 innings. He has tossed two quality starts are home, posting a 2.63 ERA in the process but those games were against Seattle and Houston and he takes a big step up in class here. Baltimore is off to a 13-9 start including wins in three of its last four and six of its last eight games. The Orioles are 6-4 on the road and the offense has been leading the way. Baltimore is averaging 6.0 rpg during this eight-game stretch and it is hitting .309 against left-handed pitching on the road. It may not even need a great effort tonight behind Wei-Yin Chen who is off to a great start this year following a solid 2012 campaign. He has a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through four starts with three of those being quality outings. The one non-quality effort missed by just a third of an inning at Tampa Bay and his last three gems have come against the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. He faced Oakland twice last season and won both games while posting a 0.71 ERA over 12.2 innings. Play (975) Baltimore Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Betting Prediction: Brewers -116 line (April 24th 2013)
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The Milwaukee Brewers have a huge edge on the mound Wednesday, and I’ll side with them because of it. I’ll gladly take the underrated Marco Estrada at this price against San Diego’s Edinson Volquez.

Estrada is coming off a solid 2012 campaign in which he went 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 23 starts and six relief appearances. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA through four starts in 2013, including 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two road starts.

Edinson Volquez continues to get rocked year after year. That has certainly been the case in the early going in 2013. Volquez is 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs and 39 base runners in 18 1/3 innings of work.

Volquez is 3-3 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee. San Diego is 2-13 (-10.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Bet the Brewers Wednesday.

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