Baseball Picks: May 9th 2013
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Pick: Braves vs. Giants Over 7.5
The total on this game was set at 7.5 points which would be about right if the Giant’s had any other pitcher in their rotation on the mounts and if the Braves were not averaging 4.9 runs per game in their past seven games. Julio Teheran has 5 starts and a 5.08 ERA on the season. He has allowed 39 hits in just 28.3 innings pitched. Things get even uglier for the Giant’s Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong has posted a 7.20 ERA in 6 starts and has given up 8 home runs and 46 hits in just 35 innings pitched.

The Giant’s have had no problem scoring runs this season. They average 4.4 runs per game and have a .270 batting average when playing at home. They face an Atlanta team that is scoring 4.4 runs per game. Both of these teams have favored the over this season as they have each posted an 18 games going over the total to just 14 games going under. Both of these teams have very capable and dangerous hitters and they are slumming it at the bottom end of their respective pitching rotations. With Teheran and Vogelsong on the mound this game should have no problem going over the total. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Kansas City Royals +104
Jeremy Guthrie has been on fire since coming over from Colorado last season. He’s 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in 6 starts this year, and the Royals are 15-2 in his last 17 starts. Guthrie hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts while pitching 15 2-3 innings. Freddy Garcia hasn’t had much luck against Kansas City. He has a 5.73 ERA against the Royals, and his clubs are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against them. -Jeff Alexander

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -144
Tampa Bay ace David Price has struggled to start the season. He’s pitched well in 4 starts but has been rocked in the other 3. However, I expect a gem from him this evening. He will be lacking no confidence against a club he’s owned. Price is 12-2 (13-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.29 in 15 career starts versus the Blue Jays. Toronto’s R.A. Dickey has really struggled of late. He’s 0-3 with an ERA of 6.63 over his last 3 starts. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 Game 4s of a series and 8-0 in Price’s last 8 starts when he gets the ball in the during 4th game of a series. The Rays have won 15 of their last 21 at home versus the Jays. Take Tampa. -Dave Price

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Baseball Picks: May 8th 2013
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under 8.5 -110 odds
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This is a 1* baseball pick on the “under” between the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night (7:05 EST).

AJ Griffin (3-2, 3.79 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Griffin got back on track in his last outing vs. the Yanks on Friday, holding New York to just six hits over seven frames of work to go along with four K’s and one walk (note that Griffin was 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA on the road last season). Griffin will be opposed by Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.64 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over 6 2/3′s innings of work vs. Minnesota on Friday, striking out five (note that Masterson finished with a very respectable 3.62 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year). After losing eight straight in this series, the Indians have taken the first two games of this four-game set including yesterday’s contest 1-0: “When you pitch you have a chance to win the game,” Indians’ manager Terry Francona said last night. “We didn’t do a whole lot offensively.” Cleveland has won eight of its last nine by allowing an average of 2.3 runs and recording three shutouts in that span; Masterson has a big opportunity to get untracked tonight vs. this struggling Oakland team. After a quick start the A’s have stumbled offensively of late; while they did take two of three from the Yanks over the weekend, they’ve plated 16 total runs while losing four of six since scoring 29 runs during a three-game win streak. I believe the table is set for a classic pitchers duel tonight and look for these two competent starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this one to fall below the posted number in the end.

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Baseball Betting Prediction: Miami +145 odds (May 8th 2013)
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The Marlins have dropped the first two games of this series – not a big surprise when you consider the Padres were priced at -190 and -175 in those two contests.

I think we’ll see a far more evenly-matched affair this afternoon, as Miami looks to avoid the sweep, and turns to its ‘staff ace by default’, Ricky Nolasco.

Nolasco hasn’t been anything special this season, but he certainly hasn’t been awful either. He’s worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and has given up more than three earned runs only twice. While he has been tagged for six home runs, he’s managed to limit the damage by limiting the number of free passes handed out (only 10 walks in 41 1/3 innings). Note that Nolasco faced the Padres once last season, right here in San Diego, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a 6-3 Marlins victory.

Jason Marquis will counter for the Padres. After pitching well in his first three starts this season, we’ve seen some considerable regression from Marquis over his last three outings. That’s not to say he’s given up a ton of runs, in fact, he’s allowed only five earned runs in his last two starts, however his walk totals have been creeping up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio now stands at a miserable 23:19 in 36 innings pitched this season. He hasn’t been a great fit here at Petco Park, posting a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.

After getting outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series, it’s easy to forget that the Marlins had won back-to-back games heading in, outscoring the Phillies by a combined 16-2 score last Saturday and Sunday. They’ve actually played .500 ball over their last 10 games (5-5).

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The Padres are rolling along nicely right now, but they’re far from invincible here at home, having gone just 9-8 on the season. Look for the Marlins to find a way to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Take Miami (1*).

Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 -110 odds (May 7th 2013)
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10* graded MLB pick on the ‘OVER’ Oakland-Cleveland in AL MLB action set to start at The simulator shows a high probability that more than 8 runs will be scored in this game. There is also a projection calling for both teams to score four or more runs each. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play Over the posted total with any AL team where the total is 8 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season, where team’s hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season. Indians bullpen has been used a ton this season. Oakland is a solid 14-2 OVER (+12.5 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Moreover, Oakland has posted an impressive 17-2 OVER (+15.4 Units) when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Cleveland ranks 25th in MLB averaging 8.28 strikeouts per game. They have struckout 9.00 times per game over the last three games and had a horrid 11 strikeouts in their last game. Many times, when the three-game average exceeds the season average, it points to a contrarian projection calling for the next game to see less than the team’s season average. A’s starter Milone has pitched well, but has struggled in road tilts. I feel confident that Cleveland will get to him and have more hits than strikeouts in this game. Take the ‘OVER’

New York Yankees vs. Colorado Rockies
Betting Prediction: Yankees +109 odds (May 7th 2013)
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The New York Yankees are showing excellent value Tuesday as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this interleague series. That’s especially the case considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Hiroki Kuroda remains one of the most underrated starters in the league year in and year out. The Yankees certainly got a steal when they signed this guy. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.056 WHIP through six starts this season.

Jorge De La Rosa has never been a consistent starter in this league. He’s been off his game once again in 2013, going 2-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.423 WHIP through six starts. He gave up 6 earned runs and 13 base runners over 4 innings of a 2-6 loss to the Dodgers last time out.

The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 26-9 in its last 35 interleague road games. The Yankees are 5-0 in Kuroda’s last 5 starts as an underdog.

The Rockies are 6-20 in their last 26 interleague games. Colorado is 0-8 in its last 8 interleague games as a favorite. The Rockies are 21-51 in their last 72 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

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Chicago White Sox vs. New York Mets
MLB Pick: White Sox +1.5 -161 odds (May 7th 2013)
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This is a Free MLB pick on the Chicago White Sox +1.5 Runs for May 7th 2013.

Chicago will visit the Mets for the first time in history on Tuesday, playing the first of two inter-league games in New York. The Mets lost to the Braves on Sunday, and they have just two wins in their last nine games overall.

They will have high expectations today, with 24 year old Matt Harvey on the mound. Harvey (4-0, 1.56 ERA) has been brilliant all year, winning his first four starts, and yet to suffer a defeat. He really hasn’t been that sharp his last two times out though, despite putting up what appear to be good numbers.

He allowed just one run on seven hits, while walking a pair over 5 1/3, in a 4-3 extra-innings loss to the Fish. Miami didn’t do themselves a lot of favors, as they had plenty of chances to score a few runs, but left runners stranded on base all night. In the end, the bullpen failed to close the door twice, once in the bottom of the ninth, and again in the 15th.

The White Sox send Hector Santiago to the mound, and he’s worked primarily out of the bullpen. Santiago (1-1, 2.29 ERA) won his only previous start, allowing one run on two hits over five innings in a 3-1 game against Texas. He’s had five career starts, going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA.

Both young pitchers have put up impressive numbers, both with a relatively small sample size. I have noticed some troubling signs that could be of concern for Harvey though, and the Mets bullpen leaves a lot to be desired.

Take CWS +1.5

Baseball Betting Picks: May 6th 2013
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: Miami Marlins +155 odds
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The Marlins destroy Roy Halladay and the Phillies on Sunday, 14-2, and still don’t get any respect judging by their huge ‘dog price in this matchup.

OK, the Marlins aren’t worthy of much respect. Scoring 14 runs doesn’t erase the stigma of being the worst team in the National League.

But still this price is way out of whack. The Marlins have beaten the Padres five of the last six times and the pitching matchup is Wade LeBlanc versus Andrew Cashner.

LeBlanc is a stiff – when he’s pitching at any other stadium except Petco Park. LeBlanc pitched for the Padres from 2008 to 2011 and was tough at home compiling a 2.97 ERA in 25 career appearances, including 24 starts, at Petco. This will be his first start at Petco against his former team and he’s going to be pumped. He also knows his former teammates well.

Cashner isn’t nearly good enough to be in this kind of chalk range. I’ve always thought he’s a better reliever than starter. Cashner lacks stamina and control. He’s only lasted four innings in two of his three starts since joining the rotation. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He’s faced the Marlins four times – all in relief – and has an 11.57 ERA against them.

By bombing the Phillies, the Marlins showed they are capable of putting up runs despite not having their best offensive player, Giancarlo Stanton. He’s been replaced by rookie Marcell Ozuna, who is swinging a hot bat. Ozuna is 11-for-23 in six games since replacing Stanton. That’s the most hits ever by a Marlin rookie during his first six games.