Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers
NBA Betting Pick: Portland +3.5 -110 odds (May 7th 2016)
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The Trail Blazers dropped both games in Oakland as they return to Portland trailing 2-0 in the series. They dominated play in the first half of Game 2, and we could expect the Warriors to suffer a let down after coming back to win the last game by double-digits at home. My money is on the Blazers + the points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Home Cookin’ – The over is 11-3 in the Trail Blazers’ last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. They’re averaging 107.5 points per game in their own building which can be compared to a 104.6 mark overall, so shooting against a familiar rim is definitely something the Portland players know how to take full advantage of.
2. Previous Meetings – Portland handed the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season when they defeated Golden State 137-105 here at Moda Center on Feb. 19. The Blazers have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 when coming off a double-digit loss.
3. X-Factor – Portland’s point guard Damian Lillard was far from dominant in the first round series against the Clippers, but he has averaged 27.5 points per game in the first two of this series.
Selection: This is a play on the Blazers (Free)
Portland Trailblazers vs. Golden State Warriors
NBA Playoffs Point Spread Pick: Blazers +10.5 (May 3rd 2016)
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The Golden State Warriors continue their quest for a second straight NBA title when they host the Portland Trailblazers in Game 2 of their Western Conference series. Golden State took the opener 118-106 behind Klay Thompson buried seven 3-pointers en route to a game-high 37 points. Draymond Green turned in one of the best individual efforts in the playoffs contributed 23 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists, three blocks and a steal in 37 minutes
The Trail Blazers (48-41, 47-42 ATS) got a break in the first round when the Clippers lost Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to injuries for the final two games of that series. They were hoping to get a jump on the Warriors before a possible return from Curry who could return to action later in the series, perhaps as soon as Saturday.
With Stephen Curry still out with a knee injury, the Warriors (78-10, 50-36 ATS) have seen Thompson step up his game. The former Washington State star is 21 of 36 from beyond the arc in his last three games, becoming the first player in NBA history with at least seven 3-pointers in three straight playoff games.
The OVER IS 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oakland and 13-3 in the last 16 overall.
The Trail Blazers are 7-22 ATS in the past 29 meetings on the Warriors home court.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
NBA Point Spread Pick: Heat -6 (May 1st 2016)
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Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NBA *1* Free Pick Miami Heat -6 vs Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 PM ET Sunday – The Heat have all the momentum back in this series. It’s been a series of shifting momentum as Miami won the first two games and then Charlotte won three straight. The Hornets had their chance to close out the series on their home floor and failed. That is going to make it awfully tough to bounce back here and I just don’t see it happening. Making matters worse for Charlotte is the Nicolas Batum injury situation. Look for the Heat to roll as they already had two home wins by an average margin of 22 points per game earlier in the series. The fact that Miami then lost on their home floor in Game 5 (by just a bucket) strengthens their resolve here. Off of the upset win in Game 6 that saved their season, Miami is 8-3 ATS on the season when off of an upset win as an underdog. Charlotte is 3-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points this season. At the time of this posting, 6.5 is the dominant number in the markets but there is some 6 available. My advice is to grab it! Consider a small play on the Miami Heat -6 as it is my Free Pick for Sunday. Best of luck, Scott
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
NBA Betting Pick: San Antonio -7 points (April 30th 2016)
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With just one NBA game slated for Saturday Zack has offers up a free play between the Thunder and Spurs.
One thing the NBA continuously teaches us is to trust the Spurs and LeBron in the months of May and June.
Although the Thunder have made changes from last year to a new Coach they still lack the same intangibles that caused their prior declines.
One they melt away leads too quickly and another is the inconsistent defensive and bench production.
With San Antonio’s ease of defeating the Memphis Grizzlies, one may expect rust to be evident in game one of the next round.
I’m on the opposite side of the spectrum as I believe they should come out stronger to start this series and wane ATS value as it extends.
This game failed to make my premium play board but is worthy of free play consideration.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
NBA Playoffs Over-Under Pick: Under 212 points (April 27th 2016)
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The Golden State Warriors can close out this Western Conference Quarterfinals series against the Houston Rockets with another win Wednesday night. The Rockets have however already upset the Warriors once to earn a win in the series, and they held Golden State to just 96 points in Game 3. I expect to see a low scoring battle in this elimination game.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Steph Curry’s Absence – The reigning MVP has struggled with an ankle for quite some time and will now sit for at least two weeks with a sprained MCL in his right knee sustained in Game 4. The Rockets must surely be extremely encouraged by his absence as the Warriors have averaged 10.2 fewer points in their five games without Curry this season.
2. Situational – The Warriors defeated the Rockets 121-94 in Game 4 of the series but are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The under is 4-1 in the Warriors last five games when playing on two days rest.
3. X-Factor – The Rockets have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight road games.
Selection: This is a play on the Rockets@Warriors to go UNDER the total (Free)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trailblazers – 10:30pm ET April 25th 2016
Point Spread: The Los Angeles Clippers are a 3.5 point favorite over the Portland Trailblazers in tonight’s conference quarterfinals matchup. The over/under for this game is 204.5 points.
Records: Los Angeles is 55-30 SU and 42-40-3 ATS this season with an over/under record of 34-51. Portland is 45-40 SU and 45-40 ATS this season with an over/under record of 44-41.
Public Perception: As of 7pm ET, public wagering on this game is split 50/50.
Past Meetings: These two teams last met on April 23rd, 2016. The Clippers were set as a 1.5 point favorite and the total for the game was 208.5 points. Final Score: Portland 96 Los Angeles 88.
Recent Performance: The Clippers are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Blazers are 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
Betting Trends: The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. The home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. The under is 5-0 in Portland’s last 5 overall. The under is 5-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 overall. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Betting Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -3.5
Over-Under Pick: Under 204.5 points.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators
NHL Betting Pick: Predators +100 odds (April 25th 2016)
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5-2 Sunday result led by 50* MLB winner, 25* NBA Upset Alert Winner on Detroit, and 25* NHL winner Washington. For those new to my methodologies that have evolved over the past 21 years of handicapping sports, us of simulations producing 1000’s of iterations based on algorithms and neural networks spanning 20+ seasons of games and results. The 25* Titan is the foundation of the methodology and there will be graded plays in each sport on almost every day. The 50* plays are the strongest possible grading able to be produced by the SIM Algorithm. These plays are rare and are akin to Game of the Year status. You can choose to play only the 50* releases, BUT then you are missing out on more than 70% of the average annual profit produced by the 25* Titan releases. The point is to make a commitment to follow every release each day and you will have a tremendous opportunity to make money while also receiving very unique comprehensive reports.
10* graded play on Nashville as they take on Anaheim in Game 6 of their playoff series set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Nashville will win this match and force a deciding Game 7 back in Anaheim later this week.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At home Nashville is 19-16-2 straight up against Anaheim since 1996. Nashville is a solid 46-21 (+20.9 Units) when they score 3 goals over the last 3 seasons; 133-83 (+33.3 Units) revenging a road loss versus opponent since 1996; 217-176 (+399.1 Units) when they get 27 to 31 shots on goal since 1996.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons – 8:30pm ET April 24th 2016
Point Spread: The Cleveland Cavaliers are a 6 point favorite over the Detroit Pistons in tonight’s conference quarterfinals playoff game. The over/under for this game is 197.5 points.
Records: Cleveland is 60-25 SU and 39-43-3 ATS this season with an over/under betting record of 42-43. Detroit is 44-41 SU and 43-40-2 ATS this season with an over/under betting record of 43-42.
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Public Perception: As of 7:30pm ET, 57% of the wagering public is betting that the Pistons will cover the point spread over the Cavaliers.
Past Meetings: These two teams met 2 days ago. The Cavaliers were a 5 point chalk and the game had an over/under of 200.5. Final Score: CLE 101 DET 91
Recent Performance: The Cavaliers are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Detroit Pistons are 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
Betting Trends: The road team in this series is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Detroit. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 games that the Cavs have played in Detroit.
Betting Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -6
Over-Under Pick: Under 197.5 points
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
NBA Point Spread Pick: Warriors -9 (April 24th 2016)
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I know this is a big number to be laying on the road, but if there’s one team you can feel confident backing at this line, it’s the Warriors. Steph Curry will be making his return to the lineup and that is the key here, as the Warriors are a completely different team with him on the floor. In the only game he played (Game 1), Golden State won by 26 points. What you can’t overlook here is how important this game is for the Warriors. They don’t want this series to drag on and the last think they want is to give Houston hope by letting them even things up at 2-2. I expect a very focused and determined Golden State team to take the floor and I have a hard time not seeing them win by double-digits. Cash the Warriors -9!
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Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors
Point Spread Pick: Raptors -1.5 -110 odds (April 23rd 2016)
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The Toronto Raptors look to take a commanding series leads when they visit the Indiana Pacers. The Raptors backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each scored 21 points on Thursday as the Raptors posted a 101-85 victory for a 2-1 lead. Another victory this afternoon would leave the Pacers in a huge hole.
The Raptors (58-27, 47-38 ATS) are starting to resemble a team that won a franchise record 56 games during the regular season. In addition to the stellar play of Lowry and DeRozan, Center Jonas Valanciunas has been a rebounding force for Toronto. He had 14 boards in Game 3 and is now averaging a league-wide postseason best 16 rebounds.
The Pacers (46-39, 42-42 ATS) have been carried by All-Star Paul George who is averaging 28 points per game in the series. George had 25 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in Game 3 but he also hit just six of his 19 shot attempts.
The UNDER has been the money play when wagering on these two teams. Five of the last six meetings have stayed south of the total and the UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven overall.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 5-2 to the low side in the last seven games Toronto is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall and past four road outings.
The Raptors are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indianapolis.