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Archive for the ‘NBA Basketball Picks’ Category

Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Point Spread & Prediction: June 8th 2014

Point Spread: San Antonio -4 Over/Under 198 (June 8th 2014)

ATS Trends:
Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Heat are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games. Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 NBA Championship games. Over is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games following a S.U. win. Over is 6-2 in Spurs last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 Sunday games. Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 NBA Championship games. Over is 8-2 in Heat last 10 overall. Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio. Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.

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Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Point Spread & Prediction from Brandon Shively: May 28th 2014

Prediction: Indiana Pacers +2.5 point spread (May 28th 2014)

Miami @ Indiana—–I like the Pacers tonight to extend this series to at least 6 games. The Miami Heat are going for a back-door sweep to advance to the NBA Finals after losing Game 1. While they are in the driver’s seat currently, I feel Indiana will be the hungrier team along with the more focused team tonight.

Looking back at the last 18 matchups between these two teams, the home team is 15-3 SU. In game 2, the Pacers had a good shot of winning before George suffered a concussion late in the 4th quarter and the Heat rallied for the win.

If we look at the NBA Conference Finals this season, the home team is now 7-1 SU after the Thunder won last night vs. the Spurs. It appears home court is a big advantage and I feel the Pacers will bring their #1 defense back home and not go out without a fight.

There has been publicized criticism of the officiating in this series as Paul George stated. I wouldn’t be surprised for the officials to make amends tonight and give the Pacers a bit of home-cookin.

I am not going to get in-depth about statistics in this game. I will say that the Pacers won the rebounding battle in both Games 1 and 2 at home, and I look for them to do so again. I also look for Hibbert to bounce back with a strong game where he will score 16+ points. David West has been the team vocal leader and I expect for him to have his team ready for tonight’s game.

Ray Allen who has came up big in this series, is listed as questionable for tonight’s game and I have to assume HC Spoelstra to give Allen some rest as he would much rather have Allen back at home for Game 6.

With the home team being so dominant is the past and the Pacer’s back against the wall, I like them as a home dog tonight to keep this series alive at least one more game.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Point Spread & Prediction: May 25th 2014

THUNDER VS. SPURS PREDICTION POINT SPREADOklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs +2.5 point spread (May 25th 2014)

The Spurs won game 1 by 17 points and game 2 by 35 points. To think that the Thunder can turn this series around based solely on home court advantage is optimistic to even the most hardcore of OKC fans. Serge Ibaka may or may not play in this game, but even if he does play, he wont be at 100% and it’s difficult to see him being the difference when not fully fit, at least in this game anyway.

Adding to the Thunder’s worries is the fact that as well as they have played at home in the first two games, the Spurs are one of the better road teams in the league as well and seem to revel in playing in opposition buildings.

If the Thunder are to win this game, there will have to be a huge turnaround and while that may indeed happen here in game 3, we’d rather be on the proven performer, amazingly with a points start.

Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home. San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards Odds & Pick from Joe Gavazzi: May 15th 2014

PACERS VS. WIZARDS PLAYOFFS ODDS MAY 15TH 2014Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Betting Pick: Indiana +4.5 -110 odds (May 15th 2014)

Now that Indiana knows that Washington is not an empty golf bag, it is time for the Pacers to return to playoff intensity. In Game 5, Indiana, playing on the league’s strongest home court in the regular season (where they defeated Washington 93-66 and 93-73), were a total “no-show.” Maybe it was the complacency of 3 consecutive victories against the Wiz. That apathy was translated into a -39 net rebound margin (you read that right, Washington won the battle of the boards 62-23), while outshooting Indiana 50-39%. Gortot (31/16) vastly outplayed Hibbert (4/2) while Ariza had a double, double, Wall went for 24/5/5 and Beal went for 18/8/4. All, while George, who had a line of 39/12 in the previous game, joined Hibbert on the “did not show list” with only 15 points and one rebound. The result was a 102-79 Washington victory in a game that wasn’t’ even as close as the final score. Now, the venue is switched, making Indiana the odds-on choice against the inverted home/road dichotomy of the Wiz. This Wiz team, that is 31-12 ATS to +9 away, is just 10-21 ATS as home chalk, including losing both games on this floor in this series by scores of 85-63 and 95-92. In a “topsy-turvy” series, that has seen the road team go 5-0 ATS, consider that greater than .668 road teams following a loss vs. sub .600 home teams following a win, are a mind blowing 70+% winning selection. Now that Miami has closed out Brooklyn, look for Indiana to play with far more intensity in closing out this series to prevent a Game 7.

Spurs vs. Trailblazers Point Spread & Prediction from Tony George: May 14th 2014

San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trailblazers
Betting Pick: San Antonio Spurs -8 point spread (May 14th 2014)

Huge number till you consider what the veteran Spurs lineup and bench did point-wise against the Blazers in games 1 and 2, which were both no contest blowouts. The Spurs managed 17 and 24 point wins and then another 15 point win in game 3 before falling to Portland in their last game.

No doubt the aging wonders with Duncan and Parker need rest headed into the finals and the reason the Spurs are -340 on the moneyline to win this is that it is a no brainer. With a young Blazers team, and a motivated veteran Spurs team looking to close out strong on their home floor, once the Spurs get a dominant lead, I think the moment gets to big for the Blazers and the game gets away from them. San Antonio a beast at home, they are vastly the better team and off a loss on their home floor with the Western Conference Finals looming, they put away the Blazers tonight by Double Digits.

Trailblazers vs. Spurs Over-Under Prediction & Point Spread: May 8th 2014

TRAILBLAZERS VS. SPURS POINT SPREAD MAY 8TH 2014Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Over 207 points -110 odds (May 8th 2014)

Normally I lean heavily towards the under in the NBA Playoffs once we get to the semifinals, but I strongly believe the smart play tonight is on the OVER in tonight’s matchup between the Spurs and Trail Blazers. These two teams combined for 208 points in Game 1 without much help from Portland, who managed just 92 points on 37.8% shooting.

While the Spurs are a sound defensive team, I don’t see them being able to keep the Trail Blazers offense under 100 points in back-to-back games. Portland ranked 4th during the regular season with 106.7 ppg and are averaging 108.9 ppg in the playoffs. In Game 1 Portland shot just 37.8% from the field and 25% from behind the 3-point line. They also came out extremely flat, scoring just 16 points in the 1st quarter.

The key here is that I also expect the Spurs to continue to have their way offensively with a average Portland defense. San Antonio got pretty much whatever they wanted in Game 1 and as a result shot 50.6% from the field.

The OVER is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 playoff home games, 12-3 in San Antonio’s last 15 home games after two straight wins by 10+ points and 9-1 in the Trail Blazers last 10 when playing with triple revenge. BET THE OVER 207!

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Pacers vs. Wizards Playoffs Betting Odds & Pick from Tony George: May 5th 2014

PACERS VS. WIZARDS NBA PICKIndiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Betting Pick: Washington +4 -110 odds (May 5th 2014)

Dead giveaway here in my opinion with a live underdog in the opening 2nd round game, as Washington is long forget after putting away the talented Bulls in Round 1 and they are well rested. Well oddsmakers may have forgotten how well Washington played and their scoring ability against the vaunted Bulls defense, but I haven’t.

The Bulls strength was defense, and the Wizards shredded it and racked up plenty of points in that series, and John Wall was unstoppable. Indiana just drained themselves with a Atlanta team who was less than stellar and to lay points here is something I am not willing to do. Washington won in a low scoring games and high scoring games against the Bulls and I see no reason Indiana will change anything they did in round 1, including being inconsistent from game to game. They had a great game on Saturday but a rested Washington who has better defensive numbers the last 5 games and who are well rested and ready to play have me on them tonight as a very live Dog! Line opened at +4.5 and dropped a half point, get on them now!

Mavericks vs. Spurs Playoffs Betting Odds & Pick from Jack Jones: May 4th 2014

NBA Playoffs Pick: Dallas +6.5 -110 odds (May 4th 2014)

The Dallas Mavericks have no quit in them. While many thought they would be swept in this series, the players in that locker room knew they could give San Antonio a run for its money. That’s precisely what they have done in forcing a Game 7.

Now that they have come this far, I look for the Mavericks to put up one final fight in this Game 7. This has been one hell of a series with almost every game going right down to the wire. Indeed, five of the six games have been decided by six points or less. The only exception was a 113-92 road victory for Dallas in Game 2.

In fact, the Mavericks are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this series. The Spurs have been overvalued time and time again as the favorite in every game, and by as much as nine points even in Game 1. Dallas has played San Antonio tough in each road game in this series, not once losing by more than five points.

Dallas is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 conference quarterfinals games. The Mavericks are 42-14 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Dallas is 50-19 ATS in its last 69 road games overall. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Point Spread & Prediction: May 3rd 2014

GRIZZLIES VS. THUNDER POINT SPREADMemphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -9 point spread (May 3rd 2014)

I realize this line has been adjusted due to the fact that the Grizzlies will be without two of their top players. However, the oddsmakers have not adjusted enough, and there’s still value with the Thunder in Game 7 as I fully expect them to roll by double-digits.

Sure, Mike Conley is expected to play tonight, but only because it’s the final game of the season for the Grizzlies. He has a hamstring injury that has him playing at about 40% right now. Meanwhile, Zach Randolph is out due to a suspension that stemmed from punching Steven Adams in Game 6.

The Thunder are 35-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game. Memphis is 4-17 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. The Grizzlies are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Thunder Saturday.

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NBA Playoffs: Raptors vs. Nets Betting Odds & Pick from Tony George: May 2nd 2014

RAPTORS VS. NETS 2014 PLAYOFFS ODDS PICKToronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets
Playoffs Betting Pick: Raptors +5 -110 odds (May 2nd 2014)

Value in the line. A bold statement but the KEY ELEMENT to wagering sports. You are betting into numbers and not games gents. Prime example here. Now no game is a guarantee but tried and true methods of handicapping are something I stick to like super glue.

Bottom line is that this is a tight series. Only 2 of the last 10 games played between these 2 teams resulted in a final score greater than 5 points, and the raptors have won 3 out of the last 4 games in this series, and while they blew a 22 point lead Wednesday, they managed a win.

Experience is KEY in the post season and no doubt that is an advantage for Brooklyn, but this is too many points and I am betting into this 5 points with the underdog. Look at the last 5 games, the stats are dead even, and while Brooklyn will be on their A game to stave off elimination, that is a huge pressure issue and Toronto young enough to play with reckless abandon knowing they have a 1 game lead regardless they will play on, either in round 2 or in game 7. I am taking the points.