Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), A Professional Sports Handicapper featured at Touthouse.com
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Only six NBA coaches have won a title in the last 21 years.  Phil Jackson has nine rings from his tenure in Chicago and LA.  Pat Riley has three rings from his time with the Lakers and Heat (more rings than that if we go back further).  Greg Popovich has four rings with San Antonio.  Chuck Daly earned two rings with the ‘Bad Boys’ Pistons teams of the early 90’s, and Larry Brown earned a single ring with Detroit in 2004.  Last, but not least, let’s not forget about Rudy Tomjanovich who notched a pair of titles with the Houston Rockets. 
 
Clearly, coaching matters at this time of the year.  When only six coaches have proven capable of winning the title in 21 years, it means something.  In a best-of-seven series, the better coaches will make quality adjustments from game to game, giving their team an enormous advantage.  And these elite level coaches also utilize the type of motivational techniques that get their team to bounce back from adversity and/or step up their level of play when their opponent is showing any kind of weakness.
 
If the NBA Finals comes down to coaching, Phil Jackson has a decided advantage over Doc Rivers in terms of championship level big game coaching experience.  Based on both team’s fortunes here in the postseason, Jackson’s experience has paid off in spades for LA, while Rivers relative lack of playoff coaching experience has resulted in choppy play from the Celtics.  And when we listen to the ‘miked’ coaches talking during timeouts, the disparity between Jackson and Rivers is even more apparent – Jackson is instructing his team in X’s and O’s; Rivers seems more like a cheerleader, trying to bolster his team’s often sagging confidence.
 
But, as we all know, coaching is only one piece of the equation – talent and desire certainly come in to play significantly.  Look no further than the Giants monumental upset of the Patriots in the Super Bowl this past year for a prime recent example – the G-men came to play, and they had enough talent and more than enough execution to steal the win.  And make no mistake about it – each of those six coaches listed above with at least one ring on their finger had championship caliber talent to work with.
 
Jordan and Pippen.  Isiah, Dumars, Rodman and Laimbeer.  Magic, Kareem and Worthy.  Shaq and Kobe.  Olajuwon  Cassell, Horry and Drexler.  What duo, trio or quartet will be the names that we remember from 2008?
 
The Lakers are the favorite in this series, despite the fact that Boston had the best regular season record, earning homecourt advantage for the Finals.  LA also has a decided advantage offensively against the Celtics.  Phil Jackson’s triangle offense has certainly proved it’s merit with nine championships.  LA was the fourth highest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging more than 108 points per game.  They ranked third in the league in shooting percentage and sixth in the league in both three point shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.  Here in the playoffs, LA’s offense is ranked even higher, leading the league in both points scored and shooting percentage.
 
Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau has been known as one of the best defensive assistants in the NBA for the last two decades, most notably with Houston and New York.  In 17 years prior to his arrival in Boston, his teams finished in the Top 10 in team defense 14 times.  Make no mistake about it – Thibodeau’s coaching has been a real difference maker for the Celtics in 2008.  Boston was the single best team in the NBA in terms of defensive field goal percentage allowed; second in the league in terms of points allowed.  Here in the postseason, Boston still ranks #1 defensively, holding foes to 87 points per game on 42% shooting.
 
We’ve got a true marquee matchup between two elite franchises.  One team has coaching, offensive execution and three time champion Kobe Bryant on their side.  The other team has the homecourt edge, a trio of veteran superstars, and a defensive mentality that is second to none.  The Lakers are -160 to win the series at the opener, with Boston favored by three points in Game 1 at TD Banknorth Garden.  Check back for Part 2 of this NBA Finals preview for a personnel matchup breakdown between these two teams.

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It’s the battle of the Big Men for the NBA Finals! The No. 1 seeded Lakers took care of business, knocking off the defending champion Spurs in 5 games. Their frontcourt of 6-10 Lamar Odom and 7-foot Paul Gasol offers matchup problems on both ends of the floor. In the Game 5 clincher, a 100-92 LA victory, Gasol didn’t shoot well, just five for 15 with 12 points. But he had 19 rebounds, one shy of his career best, and took a whopping nine offensive rebounds, tying his career high. Throw in five assists and four blocked shots and Gasol was a force even on a bad shooting night. He also played defense, holding San Antonio star forward Tim Duncan to a subpar shooting night: 19 points on seven-for-19 shooting.

This season must seem like a dream for Gasol, playing with the miserable Memphis Grizzlies before a Feb. 1 trade to the Lakers. For the record, the trade was for Kwame Brown and Jarvis Crittendon, easily one of the most lopsided in NBA history. What was Memphis GM Chris Wallace thinking? He’s the same guy who ran the Celtics into the ground before Danny Ainge turned things around.

Anyway, the Lakers are playing their best basketball at the right time, riding a 16-3 SU, 14-3-1 ATS run into the Finals. Not having home court for the Finals against Boston or Detroit might not be that big of a deal: They will focus only on a split for the first two games in the East, then come home for three straight in LA. Picture the pressure on the Celtics or Pistons: They HAVE to win the first two games at home, or risk a huge uphill climb on the road.

Taking a look at the regular season matchups between the Lakers and the top two teams in the East, we find that the contests really don’t mean that much, other than the outstanding defense played. On November 23rd, the Lakers lost at Boston 107-94, as Kevin Garnett scored 21 points with 11 rebounds, and Kendrick Perkins had 21 and nine for Boston. The Celtics shot 50%, the Lakers 42%. Kobe Bryant was 9-of-21 shooting (30 points). The Lakers played with center Andrew Bynum, who is now on the shelf, but without Gasol, who was still in Memphis.

On December 30th in LA, the Celtics whipped the Lakers again, 110-91. Paul Pierce scored 33, Garnett had 22 points, 12 rebounds and six assists, and Ray Allen scored 19. The Lakers shot just 34%, but played without Gasol or Bynum. Bryant scored 22 for Los Angeles, going just 6-of-25 from the floor. Boston won the rebounding battle both games, but let’s say the Lakers are much better now.

The Lakers won 103-91 at home over Detroit back in November, even though they shot 38% (the Pistons shot 43%). Bryant wound up with 19 points and seven assists despite starting 2-for-14 shooting (he finished 6-of-18). But the Pistons were missing Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess, both of whom were hurt. The Pistons won the rematch, 90-89, on January 31st in another defensive game: Detroit shot .439%, the Lakers .426%. LA dressed just 11 players because of injuries, which is why Kobe had 39 points on 12-of-25 shooting. Bryant had an unusual triple-double, adding a career-high 11 turnovers and 10 rebounds to his scoring total. Don’t read too much into these meetings, as there were a lot of injuries and shorthanded benches. The Lakers play better when Kobe is passing and getting others involved, rather than taking all the shots. All four of the games were played with ferocious defense intensity, which isn’t surprising as they are outstanding defensively. Note that all five of the Spurs/Lakers games just played went under the total. In fact, the Lakers are now 10-5 under the total in the postseason. Matched up against one of the top two defenses in the league, the Finals should prove an extremely interesting and hard-fought affair.

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GAME 7: SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS - 2008 NBA PLAYOFFS BETTING
Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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We’ve cashed a pair of ‘under’ the total winners the last two playoff contests between these two teams, and tonight we’ll take a small position and ‘shoot’ for the ‘trifecta’ on the ‘under’ 182’ in the deciding game 7 between the Hornets and Spurs in New Orleans. Situationally, this total needs to be at least 184 to meet a strong game 7 profile between Class ‘A’ teams in a competitively lined game. We’ve seen the total dip down between two and five points from the previous two playoff contests in game 5 and 6, and based on Class ‘A’ teams and ‘total’ results between the LA Lakers and Utah Jazz falling within two points of the total in the final two playoffs contests, you must not only bet the best line but also feel the number is fair and falls in line with proven past profitable profiles. This one is close, but not quite there. I would still lean to ‘under’ the total knowing that the Spurs have struggled with their shooting and scoring at New Orleans, posting scores of just 82, 84 and 79 points with a team best 42.5% shooting in game 2 at New Orleans.

On the court, this should be quite a battle between the defending champion San Antonio Spurs and the upstart New Orleans Hornets. It will be interesting to see if most of the Hornets players can keep their composure and play loose with so much at stake, especially late in the contest. That’s another factor in playing ‘under’ the total, as the shots may not fall as easily and the shooters ‘stroke’ may not be as smooth. However, if there are too many whistles and fouls called then the scoring result will be higher than expected. The experienced Spurs players have battled in this environment and situation before, and that would seem to be a favorable advantage for this deciding game 7 facing Hornets players in this position for the first time. However, despite some lineup changes throughout the series by San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich, the defending NBA champs and experienced Spurs have not been able to adjust to the Hornets ‘sting’ at New Orleans Arena while failing to even come close to a win at the ‘Hornets Nest’.

Back to our situational systems and sets, Class ‘A’ home teams playing a Class ‘A’ opponent in a game 7 have been a very solid bet to not only win the game, but also cover the point spread. This has been a home-dominated series, with the home team winning three games each and every result and victory by double-digits. The Hornets have been just a 3 to 4.5–point home favorite in the three previous playoff games over the Spurs, and won each contest by at least 18 points. I’ve liked most everything I’ve seen out of the ‘swarming’ Hornets, and while I anticipate a closer contest, I expect the Hornets to be ready for the Spurs best shot. New Orleans is the preferred play of the night, as I anticipate the ‘buzz’ to continue at New Orleans Arena and the Hornets to advance to the Western Conference Finals…look out LA Lakers!

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Free Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics u176.5 (-110)
Wed May 14 ‘08 8:05p - Click Here for Odds
The first two games between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers in this building produced just 148 and 162 points respectively, and we look for another snooze-fest as this series once again returns to Boston.

It is no secret that the Celtics have been like night and day home and away in the playoffs, and it all begin with their defense. Boston is allowing just 75.5 points per game in six home playoffs games, as opposed to a whopping 99.6 points per game in five road games! As a result, their home playoff contests are averaging a combined 171.2 points, and you could probably shave a few points off of that already low total here given Cleveland methodical style.

The Cavaliers are on a 12-4 Under run of their own stretching back to the regular season. LeBron James did actually get some support from Cleveland’s role players in Game 4 Monday, but even with that, the Cavs managed just 88 points at home vs. a determined Boston defense. We now all know that the Celtics are more intense defensively at home, and after watching the Cavaliers score 72 and 73 points in the first two games here, we have no reason to believe that they could top 75 here.

Thus, look for an identical pace as the first two games of this series.

NBA Free Pick: Cavaliers, Celtics Under 176.5

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NBA PLAYOFFS WEEKEND PREVIEW: Article Courtesy of Ted Sevranksy, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com - Click Here to Purchase Ted’s Expert NBA Betting Picks

Detroit @ Orlando (Magic -5, O/U 187)
The biggest storyline for Game 4 of the Pistons-Magic series concerns the injury to Detroit point guard Chauncey Billups. Billups went down with a strained right hamstring early in the first quarter of Game 3 and didn’t return. The Magic took immediate advantage of his absence, going on an 18-4 run to take an 18 point lead that they would never relinquish.

Reports on Friday indicate that Billups is expected to suit up and play for the Pistons on Saturday, but his effectiveness is another matter entirely. Head coach Flip Saunders: “I’m concerned because (Billups is) our quarterback; he runs our team. You saw our first two games. He’s been a huge part of why we’ve been successful—that matchup has been huge for us.”

Without Billups to defend, Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson enjoyed one of his best games of the postseason, spurring the Magic offense to 111 points on 53% shooting. Billups backup, rookie Rodney Stuckey, had a decent offensive game, but he was able to keep Nelson out of the paint, driving and dishing to open teammates.

The Magic had lost nine straight in the playoffs against the Pistons prior to Wednesday’s victory. Orlando center Dwight Howard: “It felt real good, finally getting a chance to beat those guys. The main thing is we played the way we know how to play—run and try to cut the turnovers down. We can beat anybody.”

Boston @ Cleveland (Cavs -1.5, O/U 176)
The Boston Celtics were the best team in the NBA during the regular season in large part due to their defense. The numbers don’t lie. The Celtics ranked #1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage allowed by a wide margin, holding foes to 42% shooting for the season – far better than the defensive minded Spurs, Pistons and Rockets.

Boston was equally adept at shutting down opposing teams from the perimeter, holding foes to a 31.6 shooting percentage from beyond the arc, also best in the NBA by a wide margin. Kevin Garnett won the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award in a landslide vote, and KG’s defensive intensity has certainly carried over to his teammates. When a team doesn’t give up fast break baskets, perimeter jumpers or points in the paint out of halfcourt sets, it makes them a very difficult team to beat.

Cleveland found that out the hard way in Games 1 and 2. The Cavs scored only 72 points in the first game of this series, held to 31% shooting. In Game 2, they improved: 73 total points scored on 36% shooting. The Cavs didn’t hit much from the perimeter, just 6-31 from three point range. And most important of all, Cleveland’s ‘Big One’ (in sharp contrast to the Celtics ‘Big Three’) was completely stymied by the Celtics defensive approach, hitting just 8 of his 42 shot attempts in the first two games of the series, while committing 17 turnovers.

We’ve seen one team after the next return home facing an 0-2 deficit and respond with their best game of the series: San Antonio, Utah and Orlando already here in Round 2; Toronto, Dallas and Atlanta in the first round. The Celtics are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three previous road games here in the playoffs, losing all three games at Atlanta by a combined 42.5 points against the spread.

New Orleans @ San Antonio (Spurs -6, O/U 186)
The Spurs completely changed their gameplan against the Hornets for Game 3 after losing the first two games of the series in blowout fashion at New Orleans. San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich changed his defensive gameplan, putting shutdown defender Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic instead of Chris Paul. The result: Paul had another huge game — 35 points, nine assists – but the contributions of the Hornets supporting cast were minimized.

At the offensive end, Popovich started Manu Ginobili, who normally comes off the bench. He also instructed Tony Parker to be more aggressive in transition, taking the ball to the basket with authority. The result? 62 points and 17 assists for the duo, by far their best games of the series.

Popovich: “We made shots, and we made better decisions. They only had [six] points off turnovers instead of the 22 they’ve been averaging. We had 28 assists, which is great, so if you can get 28 assists and not make turnovers, that makes your offense look a whole hell of a lot better…..I probably got [Parker] all screwed up [in Games 1 and 2] trying to get him to make perfect decisions. We know he’s better when he’s aggressive and trying to score. That’s the approach he took.”

For Game 4, we have to wonder if San Antonio is going to be capable of playing as well as they did in their last outing. Manu Ginobili, following Thursday’s win: “Tonight was like a Game 7 for us.” We’ve already seen the Hornets bounce back from a bad road loss in Game 3 of their series against Dallas with a resounding Game 4 victory. And let’s not forget that the Hornets were one of the strongest teams in the NBA on the road this season, 25-16 ATS, including a 24 point blowout over the Spurs in San Antonio back in January.

LA Lakers @ Utah (Jazz -5, O/U 210.5)
The Lakers are a tough team to bet against as underdogs in Game 4. LA is 6-1 SU and ATS here in the playoffs. They were one of the four teams to beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City during the regular season; the only team to do it after the All Star break. The Lakers were the single best road team in the NBA against the spread during the regular season, and they won and covered both first round games at Denver. To top it off, LA is on a 13-3 ATS run as underdogs of six points or less, consistently cashing in this role.

But Utah is not an easy team to fade here either. The Jazz were an NBA best 37-4 at Energy Solutions Arena during the regular season, and they beat the Rockets twice on this floor in their first round series. Utah has legitimate matchup edges over the Lake-show in the paint – they’ll continue to win the battle of the boards, and get easy second chance opportunities off the offensive glass, just as they have in the first three games of this series. Carlos Boozer was able to avoid foul trouble in the Jazz Game 3 victory, pacing the team with 27 points and 20 boards, while maintaining a physical presence in the paint that LA simply doesn’t have without the injured Andrew Bynum.

Here are some pertinent quotes following the Jazz Game 3 win. Jazz point guard Deron Williams: “It was just a solid game for us tonight. We pushed the ball in transition and got some easy things going. Guys were hitting shots and our confidence kept carrying over.” NBA MVP Kobe Bryant, following the loss: “We clawed back but you can’t turn the ball over so many times. We had a lot of open looks and you can sustain a game like that if you don’t turn the ball over.” Kobe’s teammate, Lamar Odom: “This team is good enough for us to lose to and we have to understand that and play our best game at all times. We could have lost to anyone playing like that.” Lakers coach Phil Jackson: “I told the guys they made a good comeback but they just couldn’t make the plays at the end.”

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Free NBA Pick: San Antonio Spurs -6.5 (-110)
Thu May 8 ‘08 9:35p - Click Here for NBA Odds
The New Orleans Hornets have dominated the San Antonio Spurs the first two games of this series, especially in the second half, but we think it will be a different story here in San Antonio.

NBA teams returning home for Game 3 down 0-2 have been a great bet this season, continuing a long-standing pattern in this league. Besides, the Spurs are 37-7 straight up at home this year while winning by an average of +9.1 points. Worse teams than San Antonio have risen from the deck to win Game 3 in this circumstance, so there is no reason to believe the Spurs can’t win by double-digits here.

Now this is in no way a slight toward the Hornets, who have already proven this post-season that they are for real. However, remember that their only playoff loss so far came in Game 3 at Dallas when up 2-0, the identical circumstances as these. The difference though is that the Spurs are a tougher opponent than the Mavericks.

Thus, look for a similar result here as the San Antonio handily closes the series gap to 2-1.

NBA Free Pick: Spurs -6.5 - Courtesy of LT Profits

Free NBA Betting Pick: Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic u186.5 (-110)
Wed May 7 ‘08 8:05p - Click Here for Current Betting Odds
The Detroit Pistons and the Orlando Magic went Over in Game 2 of this series, but we expect tonight’s contest to more closely resemble the pace of Game 1, which the Pistons won 91-72.

The thing is, the score may be reversed this time around, as this looks like a perfect spot for the Pistons to come up flat. Truth be told, Detroit did not play particularly well in Game 2 before rallying late, and if you recall their first round series vs. Philadelphia, they lost Game 3 on the road 95-75, and that was with the series tied 1-1. Now that they are up 2-0, this team that has the annoying habit of playing down to the competition until they need to flip the switch really has no incentive to give an all-out effort tonight.

Now the Magic are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but they have yet to score more than 103 points vs. the Detroit defense this year, and they have come nowhere close to that the first two games. Thus, if the Pistons fail to reach 85 points, which we honestly feel is a very strong possibility tonight, it would be difficult for this game to go Over the total.

Believe it or not, the Under is 25-19, 56.8 percent in all Magic home games this year despite all of their firepower, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight.

NBA Free Pick: Pistons, Orlando Magic Under 186.5 - Selection Courtesy of LT Profits