Lakers vs. Nuggets (-4½, 208½) – 9:05 pm ET (ESPN)
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Updated betting odds
When a 7-game series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has historically won that series 76% of the time. The updated series odds now reflect this fact as Los Angeles is a -360 favorite, while Denver is a +300 underdog, even though the Nuggets are favored in Game 4 tonight. Phil Jackson coached teams are also a perfect 42-0 in their series if they won Game 1, compared to just 6-8 if they lost the first game.

The early money has come in on the Nuggets as Denver opened as a 4-point favorite on Sunday and the line was quickly bet up to -4½ in most locations. It appears to be sharp money as the public is actually backing the Lakers with 53% supporting them at Wagerline.com.

There has been early money on the Under as the opening line of 210½ has already dropped a full two points down to 208½. This once again appears to be sharp money as 58% of the Wagerline.com contestants are currently backing the Over.

Mile High Advantage
The Nuggets suffered a rare home loss on Saturday in Game 3, but they are still a strong 39-9 SU and 29-18-1 ATS at home this season, including 27-17 ATS as a home favorite. The Nuggets are winning by an average margin of +8.1 points per game at home and outshooting their opponents 47.9% to 43.6% from the field.

Two of Denver’s nine home losses have actually come against the Lakers this season as Los Angeles won 104-97 back on November 1st and then again on Saturday night in Game 3. Los Angeles has been a strong road team all season with a 32-15 SU record and they have been particularly strong when facing a quality opponent with an 8-1 ATS record as an underdog this season and overall the Lakers are now 23-11 ATS as a road underdog the past two years.

Largest Lead = Loss
This has been an extremely competitive series and the team that has held the largest lead has lost all three games so far. The Nuggets blew a 13-point advantage in Game 1 and ended up losing 105-103 even though the Lakers never led by more than four points in the entire game. Similar situation in Game 2 as Los Angeles blew a 14-point lead and allowed the Nuggets to pull the 106-103 upset. Denver then blew an 8-point lead entering the fourth quarter on Saturday in Game 3 and the Lakers 103-97 win represented their largest lead of the entire game.

Fourth quarter breakdown
There has been a free throw discrepancy in the fourth quarter as the Lakers are 31-for-41 from the line, while the Nuggets are just 26-for-31, with ten less free throw attempts in the final quarter. Denver is also making mental mistakes with costly turnovers late in the game and for the second time in three games, Trevor Ariza stole a Nuggets’ inbound pass in the final seconds. This time Kenyon Martin tried to inbound the ball as opposed to Anthony Carter’s failed inbound attempt in Game 1.

“I think Ariza does an excellent job at not letting guys get a body on him (in picks). He’s long and athletic”, commented Kenyon Martin.

The steal caused Carmelo Anthony to foul out of the game as he was forced to foul Ariza. “It was kind of deja vu,” Anthony said.

Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Magic +8.5 (-110) – Wed May 20 ’09 8:30p
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The Magic are major underdogs in this series and there aren’t many numbers to back that up by the oddsmakers. Orlando dropped 101 points in Game 7 against the Celtics becoming the first team in history to defeat Boston after trailing 3-2 in a series. The biggest reason the Magic were successful on Sunday night was the play of F Hedo Turkoglu who registered 25 points, five rebounds, and 12 assists. Turkoglu was quiet the entire series, but still managed to average 16.2 PPG against the defending champs. The Magic will need “Turk” to complement the inside presence of C Dwight Howard to have any shot tonight. Orlando is 8-5 ATS overall in the playoffs with a 4-3 ATS mark in their road postseason contests.

The Cavs are hoping to prove that they’re heavy ‘favorites for a reason after disposing of the aging Detroit Pistons and the hapless Atlanta Hawks. Cleveland’s averaged just 82.5 PPG in the playoffs and will need to step up on the offensive end of the court if they want to beat Orlando. Cavs F LeBron James is the entire show in Cleveland averaging 32.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 6.8 APG in the playoffs. It may sound ludicrous for a guy averaging that many points, but LeBron will be asked to score more points in this series to contend with the high-scoring Magic. The Cavs are 43-2 SU and 32-13-0 ATS on their home floor this season. In their eight playoff games, Cleveland is an impressive 7-0-1 ATS.

The Magic have dominated the Cavs going 10-1 ATS in the L/11 meetings. Another stat that will make Magic bettors excited is that the ‘underdog’ is 8-3 ATS in the L/11 contests. Look for the Magic to jump on Cleveland early and once again try to hang on for a road victory in the 4th. Even if they fail in their quest for a SU win, look for the Magic to hand the host Cavs their first pointspread loss of the post-season.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Free Pick: Denver Nuggets +6.5 (-110)
Tue May 19 ’09 9:05p – Click here for NBA betting odds
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The Nuggets have been the most dominant team in the Western Conference Playoffs thus far, as it has taken them just 10 games to reach this point. Not surprisingly, Denver has done it with its offense averaging 111.5 PPG reaching the 100-point mark in all but one of their playoff contests. The big difference maker for these Nuggets has been the play of G Chauncey Billups who averaged 21.6 PPG in their series with the Mavs. Billups’ 28 points in Game 5 proved to be the dagger for Dallas as the Nuggets once again defended their home court. Perhaps his biggest contribution to the team has been distributing the basketball where he’s averaged 7.3 APG in these playoffs. Denver is 20-6 ATS in its L/26 games overall.

The Lakers must be tired after underachieving against a much smaller Houston Rockets team in the second round. It will be hard to tell which team will show up when the Lakers are just 2-3 ATS in these playoffs after a double-digit victory. “The Lake Show” still consists of one star and that is of course G Kobe Bryant who scored a quiet 14 points in the Lakers Game 7 home win and cover on Sunday. Bryant averaged 27.4 PPG in the Houston series including a series high 40-point performance in Game 2. LA is 7-3 ATS in their L/10 home games.

The Lakers covered both of their home match-ups with the Nuggets this season, but those were different times and that was against a much different Denver squad. Look for the Nuggets, who are the much fresher team, to cover the spread against the Lakers in Game 1 if not win outright! The Nuggets are an undefeated 10-0 ATS in the 2009 NBA playoffs so far and I look for that streak to stay intact against this tired bunch from LA tonight.

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -13.0 (-110)
Sun May 17 ’09 3:30p – NBA Odds
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The Rockets kept their championship aspirations alive by playing very tough defense at home in Game 6; it isn’t every day you see the Lakers score a feeble 80 points. Houston held LA to an atrocious 35% shooting from the field, but gave up 15 offensive rebounds allowing the Lakers to stay close late in the game. Rockets G Aaron Brooks is having the series of his life averaging 18.3 PPG. He had another big game on Thursday going off for 26 points while grabbing three rebounds and dishing out four assists. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS their L/6 trips to the Staples Center, and they’re a woeful 2-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog this season.

The Lakers didn’t expect to be on the ropes at the beginning of this series, but thanks to a lack of offense, that’s exactly where they find themselves in Game 7. Los Angeles averaged 106 PPG during the regular season, but has averaged just 99 points per game in this series. Lakers G Kobe Bryant has carried his team offensively averaging 29.6 PPG, which puts him at just under 30% of the Lakers entire scoring production. LA is 3-0 SU in this series when they puscore 100 points or more with two of those three contests being played at home. Los Angeles served up a 40-point woodshed beating in their Game 5 home match-up with the Rockets, and will look to protect its own house in this spot again tonight. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 meetings with the Rockets, and 14-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

History tells us that most teams respond when they’re on the road in an elimination game. However, this season has shown new trends with teams like the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers getting blown out of the water. Look for the Rockets lack of depth inside to cost them here today much like it did in Game 5, and for the Lakers to blow them out of the playoffs by covering another big ‘spread’ on their home floor.

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Free Pick: Boston Celtics +7.0 (-110)
Thu May 14th 2009 7:05p – NBA Odds
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The Celtics were down 14 points with just six minutes remaining in Game 5, but came back to claim a huge victory over the Magic. Boston can close out Orlando with a second consecutive road victory after taking a win in Game 4. Celtics F Paul Pierce has been a big part of helping his team rip victory from the jaws of defeat in the L/2 games. Pierce flirted with a triple-double on Tuesday going for 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. The Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS in their L/11 road games overall. Despite what the spread says, Boston has to be a slight ‘favorite’ in the minds of NBA bettors Thursday night with their 14-5 ATS mark in their L/19 Thursday contests.

The Magic have got to be demoralized as they have come so close to ending this series already only to have the Celtics make clutch plays to beat them in the L/2 contests. Orlando choked away another double-digit lead late in the playoff game Tuesday night and now finds them on the brink of elimination. Magic F Rashard Lewis has had a solid series averaging 20.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Lewis has been the foundation of Orlando’s offense and will need help from C Dwight Howard who hasn’t been himself in this series for the Magic to extend the series to a seventh game. Orlando is just 4-13 in its L/17 games played against teams from the Atlantic division.

The Magic have already choked away any chance they have at winning this series and their confidence has to be shattered after a tough loss in Game 5. Head Coach Stan Van Gundy has really showed his ineptitude during crunch time of this series, and looks to be one of the main reasons Orlando’s failed to close games they seemingly already had in the bag. Look for the Celtics to beat and batter the Magic down low in this contest to open up their outside shots. Boston will take Game 6 in comfortable fashion and send the Magic out to Orlando’s fine array of golf courses.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Free Pick: Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-110)
Wed May 13 2009 9:05p – NBA Odds
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Well, we predicted that the Denver Nuggets would beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games before this series started, and we look for that forecast to come to its fruition tonight in emphatic fashion.

The Nuggets are playing the best basketball in the NBA since early March, and they have been downright invincible here at home. In fact, the Nuggets are 21-5 straight up since March 10, including 15-0 SU at home where they won those games by an incredible average of +15.3 points.

This amazing home run has continued in the playoffs, where they won their three home games vs. the New Orleans Hornets by 29, 15 and 21 points respectively, and they won the first two games of this Dallas series here by 14 and 12 points. Furthermore, Game 2 was not a 12-point game in reality as the Mavericks cut into a huge deficit in garbage time.

Dallas took advantage of an aging San Antonio Spurs team without probably the best sixth man in the NBA in Manu Ginobili in the first round, but they seem outclassed in this series, especially in the games in Denver. Yes, they overcame a 14-point deficit in Game 4 to avoid getting swept, but that was at home and they will not be able to come back if they face a similar deficit tonight, which seems inevitable given the recent Denver home play.

Look for the Nuggets to wrap up this series with a big double-digit victory.

NBA Free Pick: Nuggets -8.5 (-110)

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Free Pick: Boston Celtics -2.0 (-110)
Tue May 12th 2009 8:05p – NBA Betting Odds
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The Magic should have considered themselves lucky to have held a late game lead in Game 4 in the first place. They shot miserably from the field (40% on 34-of-85 shooting), and shot an even more horrific 18.5% from beyond the arc. This coming after they seemingly couldn’t miss in Game 3 (almost 60% from the field & 50% from 3-point land). Now they have to go back to Boston where they’ve managed just two SU wins in their L/5 trips. On top of that, they’re a pathetic 4-13 ATS for NBA bettors the L/17 times they bumped uglies with the Celtics in Beantown. Game 4′s heartbreaking defeat has to have this club out of sorts. It’s hard to bounce back from gut wrenching defeats like that in the regular season let alone in the playoffs.

Boston has to be feeling good about themselves right now. They stole a game in Chicago in Round 1, and did the same on Sunday night. Big Baby’s shot will be talked about forever by Celtics fanatics, but more importantly, it might have been the shot that propels this club back to the Eastern Conference finals for the second year in a row. Now having all the series momentum, the Celtics get to play another contest in front of their home fans. They’ve had one heck of an exciting run thus far, and it doesn’t look to be over anytime soon.

Boston returned home for Game 5 in its last series against the Chicago Bulls and gutted out a 106-104 overtime victory. Though they failed to win for its betting backers, they still got the job done. The defending champs have played in a number of closely contested battles throughout the post-season, and tonight’s match-up looks to be no different. That being said, they’re only being asked to cover a bucket in this spot opposed to the 7.5-point spread they were tagged with in Game 5 against the Bulls. If Orlando does indeed go into the Garden and win this game, my hat goes off to them. I just don’t see it happening though. I’m expecting a huge game from Ray Allen tonight after he’s been held in check throughout the first four games. This will probably be a back and forth affair throughout the first three quarters, but home court advantage will rear its ugly head for Orlando supporters in the 4th and the Celtics will eek out the home win and cover to take a 3-2 series lead.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110)
Mon May 11th 2009 9:35p – NBA Betting Odds
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A lot of controversy swirled around some questionable non calls by the referees in game 3 of this Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks western conference series , that allowed Carmelo Anthony to eventually hit a late 3 pointer , for a 106-105 win by the Nuggets. Antoine Wright deliberately bumped Anthony twice, but no call. That seemed odd considering how easily the officials had blown the whistle the whole game, only to turn their heads in this spot. That did not set well with the Mavericks, and I’m sure the league was not happy either , especially after the scandals that rocked the NBA over the last few years. NBA spokesman Tim Frank said Sunday that the league was still reviewing the post-game scene on the court, when Mavericks’ Josh Howard and team owner Mark Cuban were among those that were shown to be extremely upset. Now with desperation on their plates, and the motivation of feeling like they were ripped off I expect the Mavs to come out here and play one of their best games of the playoffs, behind what will be a pumped up crowd. Here is a quote from Denvers Chauncey Billups that sums up tonights situation: ‘They’re facing elimination. That’s always the toughest game to win, especially in a sweep situation. They’re going to fight really hard and do everything they can possibly do to keep their season alive.’ It must be noted that the Dallas Mavericks have never been swept in a 4 game series, and I am betting nothing changes tonight. …..Projected score: Dallas 107 Denver 103- Play on Mavs to cover

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks u209.5 (-110)
Sat May 9th 2009 5:05p – NBA Odds
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The Nuggets are in complete control of this series after successfully defending their home floor in the opening two contests of this series. Denver comfortably covered both games in this series and is 9-1 ATS in its L/10 meetings against the Mavericks. Nuggets G Chauncey Billups has proven to be a big difference maker for this squad since coming over mid-season from the Detroit Pistons. Billups has averaged 19.6 PPG and 7.2 APG in the post-season leading an offense that has scored over 100 points in six of their L/7 games. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in Denver’s L/8 road games and 21-8 in its L/29 contests as an ‘underdog’.

The Mavericks desperately need a victory in Game 3 to get back into this series. Outside the 35-point performance of F Dirk Nowitzki in Game 2, the other starters contributed just 18 points. Nowitzki has been the lone bright spot for the Mavs scoring 31.5 PPG and ripping down 9.5 RPG. If Dallas is to get back into this series, the role players will have to step up and help their superstar out. The ‘under’ is an astounding 62-30 in the Mavs L/92 games against teams from the Northwest division.

The number for this game has risen to an almost ridiculous mark based on two high scoring games between these two teams. Look for the ‘under’ to make a comeback on Saturday when the Mavericks will have a home crowd to cheer their defense on. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the L/10 meetings played at Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Free Pick: Houston Rockets +1.5 (-110)
Fri May 8th 2009 9:35p – NBA Basketball Odds
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Series is tied 1-1 heading into tonight’s game. Houston is 10-2 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more. Houston is a very good 36-8 at home this year allowing only 90.5 points per game on their home court. LA Lakers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall ATS. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. We’ll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky