Free NBA Playoff Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 (-110)
Tue May 6 ‘08 8:05p - Click Here for NBA Odds
Let us preface our analysis of this game by saying that we expect the Boston Celtics to win this series vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers fairly easily. That said, we do expect the Cavaliers to stay inside this big number in Game 1.

Cleveland actually covered three of the four meetings with the Celtics this season with the home team winning outright on every occasion, including nice cover here in Boston in a narrow 92-87 loss the last time these teams met. As usual, LeBron James led the way with 26 points in that game, and he scored over 30 points in each of the first three games. Thus, the stiff Boston defense has had as much trouble covering him as the rest of the NBA, and he is certainly capable of single-handedly keeping the Cavs in this game.

Now granted, the Celtics blew away the upstart Atlanta Hawks in all four home games in the first round, winning those contests by an average of +25.3 points. However the Cavaliers represent a step up in class and Cleveland definitely has a huge post-season experience edge over Atlanta, so they should not be intimidated by playing in this building. Remember also that Cleveland won two games on the road in the Washington series, including the decisive Game 6.

Look for the Cavaliers to hang within single-digits to the very end here.

NBA Free Pick: Cavaliers +9.5 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits NBA Playoff Picks

NBA Playoffs Free Pick: Orlando Magic +6.0 (-110)
Mon May 5 ‘08 7:05p - Click Here for NBA Odds
While we have little doubt that the Detroit Pistons are better than the Orlando Magic, the Pistons have the annoying habit of taking some nights off while the Magic will be in desperation mode tonight.

Several Pistons players have said publicly that they get “bored” very often and they like to play down to the ability of the opposition. They have been getting away with this for several years because they have so much talent that they have indeed been able to flip the switch when they have wanted too, and we saw more evidence of this in the Philadelphia series before their wake-up call at halftime of Game 4.

They were down 0-1 in that series, and now that they are actually up 1-0 in this one, we strongly suspect that they will be less than motivated tonight. Besides, this has been a visitors’ series anyway, with the road team going 15-6-3 against the spread in the last 14 meetings, even with Detroit’s home cover in Game 1.

The Magic have been one of the better road teams in the NBA this season, going 28-16 both straight up and ATS away from home. They did win quite handily in their last regular season appearance here in Detroit 103-85 in February, so they have already proven they could compete in this building when Detroit does not bring their “A” game.

We look for another such occurrence tonight, and we would not be shocked if Orlando evens this series with an outright upset.

NBA Free Pick: Magic +6 - Courtesy of LT Profits - Click Here to Buy Expert Playoff Picks

NBA Playoff Pick: Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz u180.0 (-110)
Fri May 2 ‘08 10:35p - Click Here for NBA Odds
The Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets have gone Under in four of the first five games of this series, and we expect a carbon copy tonight.

In fact, besides Houston’s 94-92 win in the only Over in Game 3, none of the four Unders have exceeded 175 total points scored, with those contests averaging just a combined 170.3 points. Then again, low scoring games are nothing new for the Rockets, as the Under is now 50-36-1, 58.1 percent in all Houston games this season combining regular season and playoffs.

Now the Jazz obviously prefer a faster pace as they are averaging 105.1 points per game for the year. However, they have not been able to solve this Houston defense this series, as the 93 points they scored in Game 1 is still their highest output so far. In fact, going back even further, the Under is 11-5 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these teams here in Utah.

Now the Jazz are not nearly as bad as they looked in their 94-69 loss at Houston in Game 5, but they may still be hard-pressed to score much more than 90 points here. Since we still feel that Utah will win this game, this means that we do not expect more than 175 total points at the most.

NBA Free Pick: Rockets, Jazz Under 180 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Expert Picks

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Free NBA Playoff Pick: Detroit Pistons -5.0 (-110)
Thu May 1 ‘08 8:00p - Click Here for NBA Playoff Betting Odds
The Detroit Pistons have brought their “A” game vs. the Philadelphia 76ers since the second half of Game 4, and we look for them to wrap things up vs. the pesky Sixers with a handy win tonight. The Pistons overcame a 10-point halftime deficit here in Philadelphia by outscoring the 76ers 57-38 in the second half of Game 4, and they followed that up with a 17-point home win in Game 5. Detroit has a huge advantage in playoff experience here and they have won many road playoff games in the past, so look for their smothering defense to propel them to the next round here. The Sixers took Detroit by surprise in Game 1 and again in the first game in Philadelphia, but even with those two victories, they are still only averaging 87.6 points per game in this series. Furthermore, their scoring output has decreased as the Pistons have turned up the Heat, as they scored a series-low 81 points on Tuesday. Philadelphia may be hard-pressed to reach just 80 points tonight, paving the way for a Pistons matchup with the Orlando Magic in the Conference Semifinals.NBA Free Pick: Pistons -5 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Expert NBA Basketball Picks

Free NBA Pick: Detroit Pistons -5.5
Thu May 1 ‘08 8:00p
The Pistons faced two closeout situations on the road in the playoffs last year. In the first round, they swept the Magic out of the playoffs, winning Game 4 on the road. In the second round, after failing to sweep Chicago after taking a 3-0 series lead, letting the Bulls get back into it with a Game 4 win and a Game 5 upset in Detroit, the Pistons went back to Chi-town and beat up the Bulls in Game 6, again winning their closeout game on the highway.

In ’06, Detroit closed out on the road in their first round series against Milwaukee, notching a ten point win at the Bradley Center. They also won a crucial Game 6 at Cleveland after trailing that series 3-2. In ’05, after losing a home game and one at Indiana, the Pistons finished the series with three straight wins, including a Game 6 closeout at Indy. After trailing the Heat in the second round by a 3-2 margin, they won the last two in the series, including a closeout Game 7 win on the road at Miami. In the Finals, trailing 3-2, they won Game 6 at San Antonio and nearly pulled off the Game 7 road upset in Larry Brown’s last game with the team. I think you get my point. The veteran Pistons, with essentially the same cast of characters as they’ve had in each of those previous playoff series, have repeatedly and consistently closed out series in Game 6 on the highway. When Detroit is clicking, their defense is championship caliber. They don’t give up open looks on the perimeter. They don’t give up anything in the paint, and don’t allow opposing point guards to drive and dish to open shooters. They dominate the defensive glass and don’t allow second chance opportunities. They don’t give up easy buckets in transition.

Offensively, when the Pistons are clicking, their ball movement is phenomenal, as is their balance, with everybody chipping in. Flip Saunders has painstakingly developed a tremendous bench throughout the season, and you don’t see any significant drop-off on either end of the court with the reserves in action. Put it all together and we can expect Detroit to close out this series in pointspread covering fashion tonight. Take the Pistons. - Courtesy of Ted Sevransky - Visit Touthouse.com to Buy Teddy Cover’s Expert Picks

Free NBA Pick: Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons u178.0 (-110)
Tue April 29 ‘08 7:00p - Click Here for Updated NBA Basketball Odds
The Detroit Pistons and the Philadelphia 76ers have gone Under in three of the first four games of this series, and we expect more of the same tonight. The Pistons seem to play best defensively when their backs are against the wall, and after losing the first and third game of this series, they responded by holding Philadelphia to 84 and 88 respectively in the following games. In fact, the Under is 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight games overall, and all six of those Under saw less than 178 points scored. Then again, this is nothing new for this team with loads of post-season experience. The Pistons have now played 112 playoff games since 2003, with the Under going 63-46-3, 57.8 percent and those contests averaging just 175.0 points. The Sixers blew a chance to take control of this series when they blew a 10-point halftime lead in Game 4 and were in fact dominated in the second half. Philadelphia’s youth and playoff inexperience may have benefitted them earlier in the series, but those things are now a detriment in crunch time. The 76ers are averaging 89.3 points per game over the first four games, and we don’t think they will reach even that modest number now that the Detroit defense has gotten its wake-up call. Look for this game to top out in the low 170’s, with a final in the 160s more likely.

NBA Free Pick: 76ers, Pistons Under 178 - Click Here for More NBA Picks from LT Profits

Free NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
Mon Apr 28 ‘08 10:30p - Click Here for NBA Betting Odds
Superstar Carmelo Anthony accused his Denver Nuggets teammates of quitting during their 102-84 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday, and we would not be surprised at all if the Nuggets put forth an extraordinary effort tonight to salvage a win in this series.

At the very least, that abysmal effort has given Denver some nice line value here, as they went from somewhat surprising small favorites in Game 3 to decided underdogs tonight. This is a team that won 50 games this season, and besides Anthony, we simply do not feel that their other veterans like Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby will allow this club to go down with no fight whatsoever. This reminds us a lot of the situation in Phoenix yesterday, where a team looked totally dead in Game 3 of a series to go down 3-0 and then rallied for their best effort of the series in a dominant Game 4 win.

Now obviously, it is extremely difficult to find anything negative about the Lakers here as far as the numbers are concerned. However, this is a game of emotion, and we just think that the Nuggets will give a peak performance here not wanting to get swept, while the Lakers are at a comfort level knowing they could still wrap up this series on their home court in Game 5 should they lose tonight.

Speaking of home court, the home team is still 14-6 against the spread in the last 20 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, Game 3 obviously notwithstanding, and we look for the Nuggets to spring a surprise here and win one for the home folks.

NBA Free Pick: Nuggets +4.5

Cleveland Cavaliers +4.0 (-110)
Sun Apr 27 ‘08 1:00p - Click Here for Odds

The Cleveland Cavaliers took their game off in Game 3 after dominating the Washington Wizards the first two games, but it should be back to business as usual today as the Cavaliers take control of this series.

In fact, that 108-72 loss in Game 3 was the worst loss in Cleveland playoff history, so the Cavs will no doubt be anxious to erase that effort (or lack of) from their memories as soon as possible. The Cavaliers were awful on the road the first half of this season, but improved greatly while going 11-11 straight up and a winning 12-10 against the spread in all their road games since January 15, so we see no reason they can’t go back to their “A” game here with the threat of letting the Wizards back in this series hanging over their heads.

LeBron James was held to “only” 22 points in Game 3 after taking over the first two games, mainly because the Wizards were able to double team him all game, as Cleveland simply could not hit an outside shot. The Cavs hit just two three-point shots on 16 attempts, and one has to believe that they will improve on that pathetic showing today. That would force the Washington defense to play more honest and come play the perimeter, which would open things up for James to drive to the basket as he did so effectively the first two contests.

Besides, allowing 72 points was certainly an aberration for a Wizards defense that is allowing 99.0 points per game this season while allowing opponents to convert on 46.1 percent of their shots. To put things in perspective, Washington had allowed 101.7 points per game in their previous seven contests, never allowing fewer than 93 points in any of those games.

We look for a return to normalcy here, which should result in a commanding 3-1 series lead for Cleveland when all is said and done.

NBA Free Pick: Cavaliers +4 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Sports Picks

Free Pick: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks o187.0 (-110)
Sat April 26 ‘08 8:00p - Click Here for Current Betting Odds
The first two games of this series between the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks went easily Under, but we see a somewhat higher scoring affair in Atlanta tonight.

Now the Celtics defense has been great this season regardless of the venue, but they are allowing a few points more on the road than they are at home, permitting 92.7 points per game when travelling. Add in the 100.7 points the Celts are averaging offensively in those games, and Boston road contests average a combined 193.4 points, more than six points over this posted total.

Now this is the first Hawks home playoff game in nine years, so emotions will be high here. This could lead them to play a tad over their heads in the early going. Also, the Hawks were much better at home offensively this season in any event, averaging an impressive 101.8 points per game in their own building.

Now granted, most of those games were not vs. defenses of this caliber, but the Over has still gone 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. Throw in the fact that the Celtics could afford to let up a bit here and conserve some energy for the tougher rounds ahead, and this game could easily get into the 190s.

NBA Free Pick: Celtics, Hawks Over 187 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Expert Sports Picks

NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks -5.0 (-110)
Fri Apr 25 ‘08 8:00p - Click Here for Current NBA Odds
Well, all three teams that were down 0-2 in their respective series have all won and covered easily in Game 3 so far this season, and we look for the Dallas Mavericks to continue that pattern tonight vs. the New Orleans Hornets.

Desperation is usually a great motivator in the NBA Playoffs, and teams returning home down 0-2 have traditionally done very well. The Mavericks have been a great home team all year going 34-7 straight up in this building, and while they are just 17-20-4 against the spread here, that is usually because they are asked to cover much bigger spreads than this one. The fact is that their average home winning margin of +8.9 points would be more than good enough to cover this number.

Now the Hornets may be the best road team in the NBA, as they were an amazing 26-15 SU 24-15-2 ATS away from home. However, they had no success in two visits to Dallas this season, losing by 13 and nine points respectively while failing to cover on either occasion. In fact, the home team is now 6-0 both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Thus, we look for a rather comfortable Dallas victory tonight as the Mavericks get themselves back in this series.

NBA Free Pick: Mavericks -5