Dayton -9.5 (-110) – Friday January 2nd 2009 7:00p
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Now we are not normally in the habit of laying nearly double-digits on the road, but this in-state matchup between the Dayton Flyers and the Toledo Rockets seems like a total mismatch.

The Flyers are off to a 12-1 start with their only loss coming vs. Creighton on the road, which is certainly no disgrace. Dayton did cover the number in their only other true road game, which happened to be vs. another MAC opponent in Akron.

The Flyers are winning with defense, as they are only allowing 55.8 points per game on a scant 34.3 percent shooting from the floor. They have been even better than that during their current four-game straight up winning streak, allowing 53.0 points per contest on a miniscule 66-for-199 shooting. They should have no problem shutting down a weak Toledo offense that averages just 55.6 points overall this season.

While Dayton is winning their games by an average margin of +12.5 points, Toledo is losing their contests by an average of -10.9 points. This is because besides their offensive troubles, the Rockets are also allowing 66.5 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting. Thus, it is no small wonder that Toledo is 2-10 SU despite playing a less than imposing schedule.

If both of these teams simply play to their averages, Dayton would win this game by approximately 12 points. However, given that all the matchups favor the Flyers here, we actually expect an even bigger victory.

College Basketball Free Pick: Dayton -9.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

Villanova -9.0 (-110) – Monday December 29th 2008 7:00p
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The Villanova Wildcats are already 3-0 vs. the Big Five this season with wins over St. Josesphs, Penn and La Salle, and they look to make it a clean sweep vs. the Temple Owls tonight before commencing Big East play later this week.

This game is being played on campus at the Pavillion, where the Wildcats are always tough. In fact, they have now won 22 straight games in this gym, which is obviously much more quaint than the Wachovia Center, where they play the rest of their home games.

Villanova is off to a nice 11-1 start with the lone start coming vs. a nationally ranked Texas team, and they are now 23-4 vs. non-conference opponents since the start of last season while winning those games by an average of +11.6 points. It naturally helps to be playing in what is probably the best conference in the country in the Big East, which has toughened the Wildcats up when they play out of conference.

Temple is just 5-5 so far, and they have been very inconsistent, upsetting the likes of Tennessee and losing to the likes of Long Beach State and Buffalo. It should be noted that the Tennessee game was at home though, and the Owls are just 1-3 in their lined true road games. Things do not figure to improve for them in this environment.

Villanova has won this matchup each of the last three years by an average margin of +16.0 points, and we look for a repeat performance this evening.

College Basketball Free Pick: Villanova -9 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
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St John’s +5.0 (-110) – Sat Dec 27 ’08 12:00p
The Miami Hurricanes are off to a 7-3 start while facing a touch schedule, but it is never easy to go into Madison Square Garden and laying this many points vs. the St. Johns Red Storm.

This is especially true this season, as the Red Storm are 9-2 in their own right, albeit vs. a much softer schedule than Miami. The Johnnies also have revenge on their minds after getting blown out 66-47 by the Hurricanes in Miami last season. They are also 8-1 straight up at home this year, with those games split between the Garden and Carneseca Arena, making them dangerous as home underdogs.

Now while the Canes have faced a tougher slate, they did lose to probably the three best teams they have faced (Connecticut, Ohio State, Clemson), while their most notable win was probably over Kentucky, which is not really substantially better than St. Johns this season. They have also had some defensive breakdowns this year, such as in their 91-72 home loss to Clemson on Sunday, so the Red Storm could exploit them while feeding off the energy of the Garden crowd.

All things considered, we give St. Johns a nice chance to win the game straight up.

College Basketball Free Pick: St. Johns +5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
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Missouri -3.0 (-110) – Tue December 23rd 2008 7:30p
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The Illinois Fighting Illini have dominated this annual series with the Missouri Tigers winning each of the last eight meetings, but the Tigers are in a nice position for some sweet revenge here.

Missouri is off to 9-1 start with their only loss being by four points to Xavier on a neutral floor, which is certainly no disgrace. They are clicking on both sides of the floor, averaging 86.3 points per game on an excellent 48.2 percent shooting offensively while their defense is limiting opponents to 64.4 points on 39.0 points shooting.

Now Illinois has also been stingy defensively, so the key to this contest will be which offense can go off on what may be the best defense each team has seen all year. Well, the Illini have been respectable offensively, but they are still averaging about 15 points less per game than the Tigers are, at 71.9 points per contest.

When you add in the eight years of defeat, we simply feel that Missouri will be playing with a greater sense of urgency tonight, and the fact that they have had some nice non-conference wins already over USC and California should certainly benefit them.

College Basketball Free Pick: Missouri -3 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
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Free Pick: Utah State -4.5 (-110) – Mon December 22nd 2008 9:00p
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The Utah State Aggies are off to an excellent start this season while the Utah Utes have stumbled a bit of late, so look for the Aggies to prevail at home in this in-state rivalry.

Utah State is now 8-1 after a 10-point road win at Idaho State on Saturday, with the only lo being by five points vs. BYU on a neutral court. The Aggies are always tough at home, and this year is no exception as they are 4-0 straight up in this building with a whopping average winning margin of +26.0 points per game.

They have also been very friendly to their supporters thus far, going 4-1 against the spread with the only non-cover coming as huge favorites in a game vs. UC Irvine that they still won by 12 points, a margin that would be more than good enough to cash this tickets.

Utah got off to a 5-1 start, but they have lost three of their last four games to fall to 6-4 SU. Yes, on3 of the losses was at Oklahoma, which is certainly forgivable, but the other two losses during this slump came as favorites vs. Idaho State and California, and we feel that this is a much tougher assignment than those two schools.

Utah is also shooting just 42.2 percent from the floor on the road this season while the Aggies are averaging an impressive 82.0 points here at home, so look for a rather comfortable Utah State victory.

NCAA Basketball Picks: Utah State -4.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
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Free Pick: Seton Hall -3.0 – Mon December 22nd 2008 7:00p
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The Seton Hall Pirates (8-2) of the Big East (6-4) visit CAA opponents James Madison tonight in a non conference battle . The Pirates are off a ugly heart breaking loss to IUPUI on Saturday night, and will be in a big time bounce back mode in this spot. HC Bobby Gonzalez will not tolerate another lackluster effort , which makes me confident in my assessments.
James Madison has won their last 2- road games against lower tier teams (Radford, Morehead State), but in no way will that prepare them for the assault they will face this evening, especially considering the type of lowly defense, they have been playing.

JMU has allowed their opposition to convert at a .44% rate this season (247/560), including .49% from the field and a hefty .39% from beyond the arc. The Dukes only saving grace has been an up beat offense, that is not scared of taking 3 point shots. It must be noted that Seton Hall has covered 13 of their L/16 against a team that attempts 8 or more treys per game.

I know John Garcia one of the Pirates top rebounders is probably going to miss this game , but I am betting Eugene Harvey, Paul Gause and Jeremy Hazzel will do more than enough offensive damage to offset any player losses.

College Basketball Picks Projected score: Seton Hall 83 JMU 75 – Courtesy of Alex Smart
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Northern Colorado +5.5 (-110) – Thursday December 18th ’08 11:00p
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The Northern Colorado Bears have been a well kept secret since joining the Big Sky Conference last season, but they have gone 20-13-1, 60.6 percent against the spread since then, and they get the call when the visit the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears have been especially lucrative in this road underdog role, going 11-5-1, 68.8 percent, and they are 3-1 as road dogs this year, covering at Oregon, Denver and Creighton. Fresno State is no better than any of those teams, so we see no reason why Northern Colorado cannot take another contest right down to wire.

The key to their success has been their three-point shooting. The Bears are hitting a very solid 40.5 percent from the land of threes this season, meaning that they are rarely out of a game and that they are always dangerous as underdogs, as the backdoor is always open to them.

Now the Bulldogs are just 4-5 straight up on the year, and two of their wins have come vs. non-lined opponents. They have yet to cover a home game this season, going 0-2-2 ATS in their own building, and they have lost three straight lined home games straight up despite being favored in two of those games (Montana, Oregon State).

Finally, Fresno State is a terrible free throw shooting team at just 71.6 percent, which is another reason for their struggles this year. Thus, do not expect them to put the Bears away here, even if they have a late lead.

College Basketball Free Pick: Northern Colorado +5.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

College Basketball Picks: Akron +8.5 (-110) – Wed December 17th 2008 7:30p
Not so much separates the Akron Zips and the Virginia Commonwealth Rams statistically that either of these teams deserved to be this big of a favorite over the other, so Akron offers nice value at this number.

Akron is 6-3 straight up overall, and they are a nice 2-1 on the road, upsetting Niagara outright and beating Fairleigh Dickinson by 44, and in their other road game, they actually covered the number at Pittsburgh.

The Zips have been solid defensively, allowing only 59.2 points per game on 40.3 percent shooting, and that will make any team desirable as a decided underdog like this. If you take out that Pittsburgh game, Akron allowed an average of just 50.0 points in their other two road contests.

Now VCU has an identical 6-3 SU record, but they are allowing 68.2 points per game defensively. Given that they do not figure to match their scoring average of 76.1 points vs. the Akron defense, that defense makes them vulnerable here, and even if the Rams do manage to get a decent lead, the backdoor will always be open.

We do not expect that to happen however, as we see the Zips keeping this contest close from start to finish, and with a little luck, and outright upset would not be impossible.

College Basketball Free Pick: Akron +8.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Old Dominion +4.0 – Wed December 17th 2008 7:00p
The Monarchs under top tier systems coach Blaine Taylor play a hard core defensive game that relies on tough play in the paint and under the boards. I know there are 6 freshman and 4 sophomores in the lineup, but these recruits fit very well in a interchangeable machine, that operates the same no matter who is on the floor. Last year ODU hauled down 470 rebounds, which which ranked them first in the that category in the CAA. After a slow start , these young men are forming into that type of team this year, which is not a good omen , for a Dukes side that looks soft on the inside.
It must also be noted that despite of some early season scoring success by the Dukes against weak defensive opponents, they are still working on their consistency as they replace their top 5 scorers from last season, as was evident when they shot just 38.9 % from the Field in their last game.

Even though Duquesne is at home this looks like a bad matchup for them. With that said, lets take the points.

Final notes & Key Trends: Dukes have failed to cover 15 of their L/21 against top tier rebounding sides , like Old Dominion who are outrebounding their opposiiton by 7 or more rebounds PG.

Play on Old Dominion to cover – Courtesy of Alex Smart

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Free College Basketball Picks: Fairfield vs. Fordham: December 11th 2008
We are not normally in the habit of laying this many points on the road, but the Fordham Rams have been horrible this season after losing their two leading scorers from a year ago, and we look for the upstart Fairfield Stags to take advantage of them here. The Stags have won five straight games to improve to 6-3 straight up for the season, and their three losses have come vs. Memphis, Virginia Tech and Missouri. Fairfield apparently gained a lot from playing that stiff competition, and even though this is a down year for Fordham, the Stags always get up for the New York City schools, so they will not take the Rams lightly. Now it took a non-lined opponent for Fordham to break into the win column, as they defeated Lafayette on Monday after beginning the season 0-6. Most disconcerting is that the Rams have not really been competitive in their lined games, as they are 0-6 against the spread so far while losing to their Division I opponents by an average of -12.5 points per game. Fordham is also 0-4 at home vs. Division I opponents, so we are looking for a double-digit Fairfield win tonight.

College Basketball Free Picks: Fairfield -8.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
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