Oklahoma @ Louisville u126.0 (-110)
Sun Mar 23 ‘08 5:00p
The Louisville Cardinals have held opponents to just 38.6 percent shooting this season, while the Under is also 7-1 in the last eight Oklahoma Sooners games, so look for a low-scoring contest today.

In fact, given that the Sooners are averaging 61.1 points on 40.8 percent shooting on the road, they may have trouble scoring much more than 50 points here. Their average has plummeted further to an anemic 51.8 points over their last four road games, thanks to back-to-back games where they scored 45 points at Texas and Nebraska.

The Cardinals have gone Under in three of the last four games, holding their opponents to 61 points or less in each of the three Unders. Their defense has been just as stifling on the road as it has at home, as Louisville is holing opponents to 39.0 percent shooting away from home. Now granted, they are averaging 72.2 points offensively overall, but given that we don’t expect Oklahoma to top 50, we still feel this game stays Under.

Do not expect to see more than 120 total points scored here.

CBB Free Pick: Oklahoma, Louisville Under 126

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UNLV +13.5
Sat Mar 22 ‘08 6:50p
UNLV has three advantages in their effort to hang tough against Kansas as double digit underdogs on Saturday. First, the Rebels handle the basketball extremely well. UNLV won’t succumb to the Jayhawks pressure, committing only nine turnovers per game in their last five contests; less than eleven per game (with an impressive 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio) for the entire season. Don’t expect many easy fast break opportunities for Kansas off bad turnovers.
Secondly, UNLV head coach Lon Kruger prepares his team as well as any coach in the country, an outstanding ATS performer as an underdog. Even when the Rebels are outclassed in the size department, like they are here, their defensive intensity keeps them in games against superior opposition. Quite simply, this team doesn’t give up many easy looks.
Lastly, UNLV does all the little things right. They are the better free throw shooting team in this matchup. They drain their open looks from three point land, swinging the ball extremely well from side to side of the court. The Rebels don’t beat themselves. In a game where all the pressure is on Kansas, a consistent underachiever during tournament time in the Bill Self era, expect the Rebels to play as if they have nothing to lose. We don’t need an outright upset or anything close to cash our ticket – a relatively competitive loss does the trick just fine. Take UNLV.

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Texas A&M @ UCLA u125.0 (-110)
Sat Mar 22 ‘08 9:15p
The UCLA Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the country while the Texas A&M Aggies prefer a half-court style of play, so this should be a low-scoring affair.

Also, Texas A&M figures to slow this game down more than usual as double-digit underdogs, in an attempt to give themselves the best chance of winning. Their road games have averaged a combined 125.8 points this season under normal circumstances, so if they employ the strategy we expect here, you can certainly shave some points off of that total.

As for the Bruins, they are allowing just 58.2 points per game on the year, and they are coming off of a scrimmage in the first round where they incredibly limited Mississippi Valley State to 29 points. No, we do not expect a replay of that here, but UCLA has not allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to get out of the 60s, and that figures to be the case here vs. an A&M team that has averaged just 59.7 points on the road for the year.

Finally, the Bruins played one other game vs. a Big 12 opponent this season, and that was their 63-61 loss to Texas, which is more potent offensively than the Aggies. Expect a slightly lower scoring game than that here.

CBB Free Pick: Texas A&M, UCLA Under 125

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Marquette +3.0 (-110)
Sat Mar 22 ‘08 6:45p
We think that this matchup between the Marquette Golden Eagles and the Stanford Cardinal pits the best conference in the country with the most overrated, and we will gladly back Marquette as underdogs here.

The Golden Eagles won 13 games inside the Big East, and they then pulled away late to get the win and cover vs. the Kentucky Wildcats on Thursday. Much has been made about Stanford’s height advantage with the Lopez twins here, but Marquette has become accustomed to guarding large centers in the Big East and lived to tell about it, and they may even have an advantage offensively with their quickness.

Now granted, Stanford is the second best team in the Pac-10, but this post-season has confirmed our belief that the conference is overrated, and we feel that the Cardinal’s easy 77-53 win over Cornell on Thursday in no way prepared them to face what is probably the toughest opponent they have faced all year.

We look for Marquette to continue to prove the Big East’s superiority with a statement outright win here.

CBB Free Pick: Marquette +3

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Drake -4.0 (-110)
Fri Mar 21 ‘08 12:30p
We do not take favorites very often, but people still do not realize just how good the Dralke Bulldogs are, and we have no qualms laying this rather modest price vs. the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers this afternoon.

Drake is now 28-4 straight up and an amazing 21-7 against the spread, and besides a respectable six-point loss at St. Mary’s early in the season, their three losses inside the underrated Missouri Valley Conference were all by three points or less. In a conference dominated by teams that are great at home and bad on the road (see Southern Illinois, Creighton), the Bulldogs broke the mode by going 7-2 SU on the road in conference play, and they wrapped up the season with a 30-point thrashing of Illinois State in the MVC Championship Game. Drake’s average winning margin over the entire season was a nice +12.3 points per game.

Now Western Kentucky did go 26-6, they won their conference championship game by 10 points and they had an AMOV of +11.3 points. The major difference however was that there is no comparison between the Sun Belt Conference and the Missouri Valley. As a result, the Hilltoppers’ strength of schedule graded out to 142nd in the country based on RPI, while Drake had an SOS of 68.

Finally, Drake is ranked 20th in the Pomeroy Ratings while Western Kentucky is ranked 64, and we look for the Bulldogs to prove that disparity is not a fluke with another convincing win today.

CBB Free Pick: Drake -4

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Gonzaga +1.5 (-110)
Fri Mar 21 ‘08 12:25p
The Davidson Wildcats are popular NCAA Tournament sleepers this season, but we actually feel that they are overrated as slight favorites in this spot vs. a Gonzaga Bulldogs team that has played a tougher schedule.

Yes, Davidson has the longest winning streak in the country at 22 straight, but all but one of those win came inside the weak Southern Conference, and the other victory came vs. a Winthrop team that got blown out by 31 points yesterday. Sure, they had close losses vs. great competition early in the year (North Carolina, UCLA, Duke), but the fact remains that they did not actually win any of those games, which we feel works against them in the favorite role here.

Now Gonzaga does not play in the best of conference either in the West Coast Conference, but St, Mary’s and San Diego are both better than any team that Davidson has beaten this season, and Gonzaga beat those clubs a combined three times. More importantly, Gonzaga’s wins over Connecticut, St. Joseph’s and Utah gives them three more quality non-conference victories than Davidson possesses.

Davidson may be hot, but we feel the better quality of the Bulldogs’ competition has toughened them enough to triumph today.

CBB Free Pick: Gonzaga +1.5

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Texas -15.5 (-110)
Fri March 21 ‘08 3:00p
Texas vs. Austin Peay: There is a reason that the Longhorns are the sexy pick to reach the Final Four this April… They play in the strongest conference, the Big 12, and with two terrific early tournament matchups, figure to play the second weekend of games in Houston (home away from home, per se). After destroying Austin Peay on Friday, the talented squad will get the winner of the Miami-St. Mary’s game, after beating either, or both squads combined for that matter, they head to Houston for the regionals.

Texas is the strongest No. 2 seed without question, have the best balance from their backcourt to the paint, and once they reach the Sweet Sixteen and then the Elite Eight, they have a possible two games at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

First and foremost the team must get over their hard fought and physical defeat to Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game. Peay, who is balanced and offensive minded, can’t matchup with the quicker and bigger Longhorns. Peay has as much chance of winning on Friday as you do of hitting the lottery.

The Govs are seriously undersized in the post and must stay out of half court sets on the offensive end of the court; and the strength of their team, their guard play by Derek Wright (11.7 ppg) and Todd Babington (11.6 ppg), is neutralized by D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams.

The Longhorns are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

The Friday action play is on Texas minus the points over Peay.

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Siena +6.5
Fri Mar 21 ‘08 7:20p
Siena(22-10) prepares to face a strong Vanderbilt(26-7) team that some of the pundits have chosen , as possible dark horse contenders. Im in disagreement, as Im thinking their opponents today are very capable of upending their SEC opponents the Commodores in surprising fashion. This Siena Saints basketball program, has a history, of pulling off upsets, as was the case 19 years ago when they upset Stanford in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Look for the Saints , to figure out a way to keep , Vandy super star guard Shan Foster , under wraps, and for this well coached intelligent group , to give us the cover. Final notes & Key Trends: Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and are 8-2 ATS L/10 as a 6.5 or less. Play on Siena

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Cal State Fullerton @ Wisconsin o136.5 (-110)
Thu Mar 20 ‘08 9:40p
The Wisconsin Badgers are known for their defense, but their scoring did go up when they played outside of the Big Ten, and their opponents the Cal State Fullerton Titans play a run and gun style.

In fact, Fullerton is fourth in the nation among board teams in scoring, averaging 82.6 points per game, which trails only North Carolina, Duke and Tennessee. At the same time however, they allow 72.9 points per contest, and none of their games came against teams from the six so-called power conferences. They have five lined non-conference games this season, and those encounter averaged a combined 159.5 points, about 23 points more than this posted total.

Granted, Wisconsin is a step up in class, but the Badgers have become accustomed to facing the plodding teams in the Big Ten, so we do think that Fullerton’s style will bother them a bit. Also the Badger averaged a very respectable 72.2 points out of conference this year, and the only time they faced a team similar in style to the Titans, they allowed a season-high 82 points to Duke. No, obviously, Fullerton is not close to Duke in terms of quality, but we see no reason why they cannot put up 70 points here.

Since we do believe that Wisconsin will prevail in this one, it only stands to reason that this contest goes Over this total.

CBB Free Pick: CS Fullerton, Wisconsin Over 136.5

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Opening Round @ Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.

(3) Xavier vs. (11) Georgia: The Bulldogs continue its excellent play it exhibited in the SEC Tournament and comes out on fire. They hold a 9-point lead at the break, 41-32, forcing Musketeer fans to drown their sorrows in their beers during the intermission. However, the Musketeers come out like gangbusters in the second half and open it up with a 15-0 run to take a lead they never surrender. However, the spread is in doubt in the final seconds, but Georgia’s last ditch 3-point attempt clanks off the rim and Stanley Burrell hits the final two FT’s of the game to allow Xavier to cover the spread.

Final Score: Xavier 77 Georgia 67

(11) Baylor vs. (6) Purdue: The Bears and Boilermakers went back and forth throughout the first 17 minutes of the contest, but PU was able to pull away in the last couple minutes to grab a 9-point lead at the half, 33-24. Head Coach Scott Drew must have given one heck of a halftime speech because the Bears started to look like the team that earned a bid to the dance right out of the gates in the second half. Senior guard Curtis Jerrells nailed back-to-back-to-back threes and the Bears took their first lead of the game at the 12-minute mark. Matt Painter’s club didn’t back down though as frosh phenom Robbie Hummel caught fire and scored the Boilers next 10 points to allow them to retake the lead. The score was all knotted up at 76 apiece with 17 seconds left on the clock and the Bears held possession of the ball. Everyone in the building knew it was Jerrells time, and they were right. After letting close to 12 seconds elapse, Jerrells bolted to the rim but instead of taking the shot he dished it off to a wide open Tweety Carter who let one go from beyond the arc. The ball touched nothing but nylon as the buzzer sounded, and the Bears were the proud owners of the first last second win in the tourney.

Final Score: Baylor 79 Purdue 76

(15) Belmont vs. (2) Duke: The Dookies wasted no time in getting ahead of the spread in their evening contest with the Belmont Bruins. Not seven minutes had elapsed from the game clock, yet the Blue Devils had already notched 37 points while holding Belmont to a miniscule 16. DeMarcus Nelson and John Scheyer were unloading from beyond the arc, and Greg Paulus had already registered 10 dimes. Duke held a 63-27 lead at the break, so Coach “K” decided to bring in his bench players to play a bulk of the second half. They went on to win by a 91-64 final count and cover the 20-point spread with ease.

Final Score: Duke 91 Belmont 64

(10) Arizona vs. (7) West Virginia: The Mountaineers came out simply on fire from beyond the arc! Alex Ruoff and Darris Nichols hit 7 of their first 8 attempts to give the Mountaineers a double-digit lead at the 10-minute mark. This left AZ Head Coach Kevin O’Neill scrambling searching for answers, but then his “ptp’ers” stepped up to chew into the lead. WV led 52-44 at the break. Arizona’s porous defense really turned it up in the second half and held WV scoreless for a four-minute mark to allow Bayless and company to tie it up. This took the air out of HC Bob Huggins club, and the Wildcats rolled from there on out. The final score looks closer than it was only because WV nailed a couple of desperation 3’s and the Wildcats kept splitting at the line. Huge underdog win for the Wildcats who now get the pleasure of taking on Duke in Round 2.

Final Score: Arizona 84 West Virginia 78

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