2012 NCAA Final Four Betting Picks
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Okay Touthouse NCAA college basketball bettors, if you’re looking to cash in on this weekend’s NCAA Tournament Final Four matchups, then you’ve come to the right place! Thanks to the always, bettor-friendly management at Touthouse.com, avid hardwood college hoops gamblers are going to get a great idea of just who to put their betting bucks on when Saturday’s duo of Final Four pairings get underway, beginning at 6:05 PM ET with the all-Kentucky in-state rivalry between the top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats and fourth-seeded Louisville Cardinals.
No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 1 Kentucky
When: Saturday, March 31st 2012, 6:05 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
There’s no way to get around the flat-out truth that the Kentucky Wildcats (36-2 SU, 15-21-1 ATS, 16-19-2 O/U) have looked increasingly better with each passing NCAA Tournament performance. The Wildcats have pretty much run roughshod in winning their four tourney games to date by a whopping average of 13.7 points per game. Kentucky routed two very good teams in beating both, Indiana and Baylor by a dozen points in each of their last two games – with freshman forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist increasing his NBA draft stock by averaging 21.5 points per game over the last two. The Wildcats have covered the spread in three straight games, after failing to cash in against Western Kentucky as a 26.5-point favorite in its tourney opener.
Believe it or not college basketball bettors, the deep, Wildcats have a whopping six players that average double digits in scoring, helping them rank 57th in the nation in scoring, (72.7 ppg) and a stellar eighth in field goal percentage (48.8). The Wildcats however, are facing a red-hot Louisville team that has won a season-high eight straight games, including their hard-fought 72-68 win over Florida in their Elite Eight matchup this past Saturday. The Louisville Cardinals (30-9 SU, 22-13-1 ATS, 15-21 O/U) average just 68.8 points per game this season, but get the job done by shutting down their opponents. Louisville gave up just 60.8 points per game defensively this season and led the nation in field goal defense (38.0) The Cardinals have not allowed more than 68 points in their four NCAAA Tournament games in reaching the Final Four. The Cardinals have seen sophomore point guard Russ Smith come off the bench to score at least 17 points in two of the last three games, including 19 points on the Florida Gators the last time out.
Here is a look at the key trends for both teams coming into this contest.
Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 NCAA Tournament games.
Kentucky is 11-4 ATS in their L/15 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Kentucky is 3-11-1 ATS in their L/15 non-conference games.
The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their L/8 games overall.
Louisville is 7-2 ATS in their L/9 games as an underdog.
The Over is 4-0 in the Wildcats last four games overall.
The Under is 9-1 in Louisville’s L/10 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
The Louisville Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Final Four Betting Pick: Despite the fact that Louisville has been playing very well coming into this matchup – and have an extremely active defense – I just don’t think it’s very wise to bet against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is almost literally steamrolling its opponents these days. Kentucky’s last two spanking of Indiana and Baylor tell me all I need to know about this one … the Louisville Cardinals are in trouble. Back the Kentucky Wildcats to win this one by double digits to cover the ATS spread with a bit of room to spare while the Over plays out as well (just barely). Kentucky has played Over the O/U Total like it’s no problem lately and I expect them to narrowly play over the total again in this one.
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Kansas
When: Saturday, March 31st 2012, 8:45 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
After surviving two straight scares that each produced three-point victories, the Kansas Jayhawks (31-6 SU, 18-17-1 ATS, 13-21-2 O/U) looked better than ever in handing top-seeded North Carolina an emphatic 80-67 beat-down in their Elite Eight matchup this past Saturday. However, the same could very well be said about an Ohio State Buckeyes (31-7 SU, 20-13 ATS, 20-11-2 O/U) team that man-handled N. 1 Syracuse in its 77-70 Elite Eight win. Kansas has sandwiched two ATS wins around their narrow three-point SU wins but have had trouble scoring the ball – until beating Carolina that is. Kansas had not scored more than 65 points in their three previous NCAA Tournament games and that could be a bit of a problem against an Ohio State team that has scored at least 73 points in all four of its tourney games. Despite their recent scoring struggles, the Jayhawks were one of the best offensive teams in the nation this season as they averaged an impressive 74.2 points per game (39th) while draining 47.6 percent of their field goal attempts (22nd).
Ohio State however, narrowly out-did their counterparts in this one in the scoring department as they finished an impressive 34th in the nation in scoring, (75.0 ppg) while ranking a stellar 18th in field goal percentage (48.0). Ohio State is led by sweet-shooting sophomore power forward Jared Sullinger, with the future NBA lottery pick averaging a stellar 18.0 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas is led by its equally impressive big man, Thomas Robinson as the junior averaged 17.7 points per game during the season. While the Jayhawks have struggled to score the ball consistently during the NCAA Tournament, they’ve also been a monster defensively in not allowing more that 67 points in each of their four games – and less than 60 in their first three tourney games. Ohio State hasn’t been too shabby on defense either in holding their first three NCAA tournament opponents to 66 points or less before giving up 70 to Syracuse the last time out.
Here is a look at the key trends for both teams coming into this contest.
Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their L/5 non-conference games.
The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 games overall.
Ohio State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Kansas is 2-5 ATS in their L/7 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
The Jayhawks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Kansas is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games versus teams from the Big Ten.
The Over is 4-0 in the Buckeyes L/4 NCAA Tournament games.
The Over is 10-1 in Ohio State’s last 11 games overall.
The Under is 17-4 in the Jayhawks’ last 21 NCAA Tournament games.
The Under is 11-3 in Kansas’ last 14 neutral site games.
Final Four Betting Pick: While the Kansas Jayhawks have had a very nice season and surprised North Carolina the last time out, I think the party comes to a screeching halt for the Buckeyes in this contest tonight. The Ohio State Buckeyes aren’t just about Jared Sullinger either as they’ve placed four players in double digit scoring in each of the last four games. The Buckeyes have had an answer for everything that their opponents have thrown at them throughout their NCAA Tournament run while Kansas has been a bit lucky to still be playing if you ask me. I think the Jayhawks’ inability to score the ball consistently (until their win over North Carolina), will be the thing that separates these two teams in the end. I like the Buckeyes to win and narrowly cover the spread while moving to a near-perfect 7-1 in neutral site games this season. As far as the Over/Under outcome is concerned, I think the Over is a virtual lock with both of these team more than capable of reaching the combined 140-point plateau.
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Kentucky vs. Kansas
Kansas vs. North Carolina
Ohio State vs. Syracuse
