Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Super Bowl XLVIII Betting Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3 (February 2nd 2014)
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The Super Bowl has now pervaded almost every aspect of our culture. Super Bowl ads have taken on a life of their own. There was just a CBS one hour special devoted to the best Super Bowl ads of all time. It was hilarious! But if you’re as tired of the overexposed media aspect of this game as I am, then we need to get down to the winning selection. By the way, there will be no propositions from this bureau. Picking the side and total is tough enough. Most of these propositions have a wide edge for the house. Save your money and invest it in a subscription to my late telephone hoops service. It will give you a much greater reward over the next 60 days. You can sample selections on buttons 3 and 5 Saturday and Sunday at 10 AM EST.
Regarding the Super Bowl betting pick…it can be generalized into a simplistic choice of offense vs defense. QB Manning and the Broncos possess arguably the best offense in the history of the NFL. The Seattle defense was the best in the league this year. Anyone who has followed my history of NFL selections (see record above) will not be surprised that I am favoring Seattle with the superior defense and running game.
Behind QB Manning and an offensive line that kept him virtually untouched the entire season, Manning threw for nearly 5,500 yards and 55 TDs to rack up over 600 points, the highest scoring offense ever in the NFL. A diverse receiving corps includes wideouts, Welker, Thomas, and Decker, along with TE Thomas. They were quickly on the same page with their QB from the beginning of the season. The running of RBs Ball and Moreno that led to a nearly 120 RYPG ground game that kept things honest and provided a semblance of balance. The defense allowed 25 PPG, though much of that came in garbage time. Most important in this game will be a rush defense that allowed just 100/3.9 per game. A clear advantage for the Broncos is the vast Super Bowl experience edge of HC Fox and QB Manning.
Our preference in this game, however, will be the better running game and the league’s number one defense. What the Seahawks lack in Super Bowl experience, they make up for in attitude. That is something that has directly filtered down from HC Carroll, who has created a highly competitive atmosphere and brings great energy to the entire team. Leading the offense is second year QB Wilson. He is not going to win the game for the Seahawks, but he has proven in two years that he is mature beyond his years and will most probably avoid critical mistakes. It’s the Seattle ground game at 140/3.3 that is their bread and butter. Though the OL endured numerous injuries throughout the season, they are now as healthy as they have been since August. It is that unit that will open holes for beastly RB Lynch, who is the emotional leader of the offense with inspirational runs in which he refuses to be tackled. The Seahawks’ receiving corps is less dynamic than that of the Broncos. WRs Tate, Kearse, and Baldwin are hardly household names or even appear on many fantasy league rosters. The real X Factor for this offense is the return of the explosive Percy Harvin, a potential game breaker with both his kick returns and his ability to gain yards after the catch. This is an underrated offense whose job it will be to move the ball on the ground and with precision, playing keep away from the Broncos’ offense. But the real star of this team is the number one defense, who leads the league with only 15 PPG, while allowing just 283 YPG. Most impressive is the 59% completion rate allowed for just 5.4 yards per catch. If you’re looking for the X Factor of this defense, consider that they lead the league in takeaways and turnover margin with +23. And I’ve made it very clear about the importance of being on the plus side of the turnover margin, as any team in the NFL regular season who authored a positive turnover margin had a record of 154-32 ATS.
It’s far easier to bet the Broncos in this game and root for the offense. If you bet the Seahawks, you’ll be holding your breath the entire game that QB Manning and the Broncos’ offense does not explode. Yet this bureau will hold fast to the tried and true formula that running game, a superior defense, and a positive turnover margin is what wins in the NFL. Those factors clearly point to the Seahawks, who are my selection for this Super Bowl victory.
Regarding the over/under selection: there’s never been a higher scoring season in the NFL. Rule changes favor the offense, as does the more offensive minded philosophy. If you’ve followed our over/under selections this season, you know we took advantage of the built in 2-3 points of value when the line maker failed to adjust for the greater scoring. In this game, however, we must shift gears as fundamentals clearly point to a lower scoring game. As the season wore on, the Bronco offense became more conservative. That has been especially true in a pair of playoff victories. Yet the strong history of overs for Denver is what in part keeps this total propped up. It would be quite a surprise if the Seattle game plan did not incorporate a keep away philosophy to it. It has been their MO for much of the season. The result is that each of these teams have recently authored 5 consecutive unders. And despite the fact that fireworks often evolve in the fourth quarter of Championship games, I still believe that the percentage side is for a lower scoring game.
NFL Football is the most popular sport on which to wager. No game is larger than the Super Bowl in the eyes of the betting public. Literally billions of dollars will be wagered on this game and the hundreds of proposition bets (all widely favoring the house) that accompany it. It seems that it is almost un-American to not wager on the Super Bowl. The media hype that accompanies this game further fuels the fire. The social events that surround it only reinforce the emotional attachment to the outcome. Everyone has an opinion, only approximately 50% of them will win. That outcome will most probably be attached to the net turnover margin in the game rather than a positive play made by many of the fine offensive performers in the contest. In short, it is the essence of the word sports gambling. For there will be little handicapping analysis done by 99% of the people who make their wagers. To the professional handicapper and sports bettor, it is clear that there are far more outstanding wagers to be made this week on the nearly 300 basketball games that will be played. If your sports betting goal is to make money, I suggest you join the thought process of those professionals. Otherwise, you are just GAMBLING and you work too hard for your money to do that