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Week 5 NFL Picks from AAA Sports: Texans vs. Cowboys: October 5th 2014

WEEK 5 NFL PICKS OCTOBER 5TH 2014Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 5 NFL Pick: Houston +4 point spread (October 5th 2014)
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Dallas has been a spread covering machine the past three weeks but I think the value will be with Houston in this rivalry game. The visiting Texans (3-1) showed their defensive might again in Week 4 with a 23-17 win at home over Buffalo. J.J. Watt had five tackles and six hits on the opposing QB to go with an interception that he ran in for a touchdown. The Texans won without getting a lot of production from star running back Arian Foster who suited up but rushed for just six yards. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been solid but not spectacular in the 3-1 start for a Houston team that was the worst in the NFL last season. The Dallas Cowboys (3-1) impressed everyone with a 38-17 win at home over New Orleans on prime time Sunday last week, RB DeMarco Murray continued his massive rushing season with 146 yards and two TD’s to help pace the well balanced offense. Tony Romo was 22-of-29 for 262 yards without an interception. With all due respect to the Cowboy’s three game winning streak though, a matchup with this defensively solid Texans team is going to be a stern wake up call in my opinion. Dallas struggled in Week 1 against a very good defense in San Francisco and it will be facing something similar here. Remember that the Cowboys are a much better team as the underdog in recent years, they are just 6-12 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Houston has been impressive under the guidance of defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the unit has become a master at disguising blitzing and rushing opposing QB’s with small fronts. With a far healthier Foster this week, the Texans offense will be much more dynamic. Expect this big contest in the heart of Texas to be a very competitive game where taking the points would seem to be the sound wager.

Patriots vs. Chiefs MNF Betting Pick, Odds & Spread: September 29th 2014

PATRIOTS VS. CHIEFS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK SPREAD ODDSNew England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
MNF Betting Pick: Chiefs +3 point spread -110 odds (September 29th 2014)
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This Monday Night Football game will be played in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in front of nearly 80,000. The stadium will be juiced as they try to break the Guinness record for loudest stadium. They are giving out earplugs to anyone that wants them on the way in. At the time of this writing the Patriots are still favored by three in Vegas while a few online books have dropped it to 2.5.

KC is certainly a city with a buzz today as the Royals, who made the playoffs for the first time in 29 years, play tomorrow night against the A’s, and the Pats are in town for MNF.

Well you know it will be loud then and Brady hasn’t looked particularly comfortable with losing long time OL coach Dante Scarnecchia and guard Logan Mankins. The offense just hasn’t gelled yet. I’m not sure tonight is the night either. I look for HC Belichick to try to run the ball and take the crowd and KC pass rush out of the game a little. The Pats have won two games in a row with their defense. They held their last two opponents to a total of 16 points. In all fairness, those two teams were the Vikings and Raiders. There are many teams in the NFL that could probably accomplish that. Does Brady get comfortable against the Chiefs secondary? It is certainly possible, however, he has been sacked seven times this year.

The Chiefs look to have RB Jamaal Charles back and will keep the ball on the ground, I also look for KC to give backup RB Knile Davis plenty of work, this in an attempt to keep Brady and his passing game off the field. Even with the NE 31st ranked passing game Brady can light it up at any time. The KC defense has nine sacks and will look to keep Brady and his passing attack quiet for one more week.

Slight lean on the Chiefs +3

Patriots vs. Chiefs Football Pick & Point Spread: September 29th 2014

PATRIOTS VS. CHIEFS POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 29TH 2014New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: New England -2.5 Over/Under 47.5 (September 29th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4. Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Chiefs are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Patriots are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in September. Under is 10-3 in Chiefs last 13 games following a S.U. win. Under is 12-4 in Chiefs last 16 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 4. Over is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games in September.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

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Saints vs. Cowboys Football Pick & Point Spread: September 28th 2014

SAINTS VS. COWBOYS POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
Point Spread: New Orleans -3 Over/Under 53 (September 28th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Saints are 23-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a S.U. win. Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games overall. Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in Week 4. Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games following a ATS win. Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 13-3 in Saints last 16 vs. NFC. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games overall.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

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Falcons vs. Vikings Football Pick & Point Spread: September 28th 2014

FALCONS VS. VIKINGS POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Point Spread: Atlanta -4 Over/Under 47 (September 28th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. NFC. Over is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 15-6-1 in Vikings last 22 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games in September. Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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Eagles vs. 49ers Football Pick & Point Spread: September 28th 2014

EAGLES VS. 49ERS POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Point Spread: San Fran -3 Over/Under 48 (September 28th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4. 49ers are 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss. 49ers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss. 49ers are 19-8-2 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games in September. Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Eagles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games overall. Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 vs. NFC. Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Over is 10-3-1 in 49ers last 14 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 10-3 in Eagles last 13 games following a ATS loss. Over is 22-7 in Eagles last 29 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 games overall. Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 games following a S.U. win. Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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Jaguars vs. Chargers Football Pick & Point Spread: September 28th 2014

JAGUARS VS. CHARGERS POINT SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers
Point Spread: San Diego -13 Over/Under 45 (September 28th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Chargers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in September. Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4. Jaguars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games following a S.U. win. Under is 12-2 in Chargers last 14 vs. AFC. Over is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games in Week 4. Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall. Under is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games following a ATS win. Over is 7-2 in Jaguars last 9 road games. Over is 7-2 in Jaguars last 9 games following a ATS loss. Over is 9-3 in Jaguars last 12 games overall. Under is 6-2 in Jaguars last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 9-3 in Jaguars last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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Dolphins vs. Raiders Week 4 NFL Pick & Point Spread from Scott Spreitzer: September 28th 2014

DOLPHINS VS. RAIDERS WEEK 4 PREDICTION SPREAD SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders
Week 4 NFL Pick: Oakland Raiders +4 point spread (September 28th 2014)
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Scott Spreitzer looks to rock the books with his NFC SMACKDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR! Scott’s side is backed by combined spots on a 33-7 winning run! And Scott’s on a 15-2, 88% winning NFL Smackdown run! Grab the GOY!

I’m recommending a play on the Oakland Raiders, plus the points on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ offense are struggling badly. Tannehill is averaging the lowest amount of yards per pass of any NFL starter so far this season. They can’t go deep and doing nothing but dinking-and-dunking is not the way to get the job done in the NFL. You have to be able to test deep waters and stretch defenses, but the Dolphins have been unable to do so. The Raider defense has played well against the pass, ranked 4th in the league, making Miami’s chances of turning things around this week unlikely. Oakland contained the Patriots’ offense, holding them to 4.2 yards per play in last week’s 16-9 loss after having been within 1 point of the Pats early in the fourth quarter. Miami allowed 34 points in a 19-point home loss to KC last week and they have not rebounded well, going 0-5 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. With the turmoil at QB and decent defensive play from Oakland, we expect the Raiders to give the Dolphins more than they can handle. I’m recommending a play on the Raiders, plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Titans vs. Colts Week 4 NFL Pick & Point Spread from Brad Diamond: September 28th 2014

TITANS VS. COLTS WEEK 4 NFL SPREAD PICK SEPTEMBER 28TH 2014Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 4 NFL Pick: Colts -7 point spread (September 28th 2014)
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Well I can speak to a relative experience considering my play on Indy (vs. Philly) on Monday night as they were clocked by the 3-0 Eagles. So I stayed away from the JAX game figuring the Colts could come in a little flat….not so! In fact, QB Luck (31-39, 370) and company mauled the hapless franchise 44-17 giving high alert to the traffic center on 1-95 that all living beings were leaving the area for shelter. Jacksonville had an unusual first-half, 55 yards of offense. In contrast, we thought Tennessee (1-2) would have a solid season, but have lost BB games (Cincinnati and Dallas) after securing a major win (26-10) over KC in week #1 at Kansas City. Tennessee has a negative 26 point differential, while scoring only 4 touches this season. Now they must face Indy who has had great success in the division taking 8 straight games. The Titans are away down the list in total offense with less than 15 points per game as a team (Indy is ranked #2 in total offense 31.7 ppg). Plus they usually start with poor field position logging #14 out of 16 in the AFC in kick-off returns. The key problem offensively for Tennessee is no real discernable deep threat and QB Locker has looked less than mediocre. Locker is ? for Sunday. Remember the Titans are 1-10 SU up in the series, despite playing here with a top-five defense. Series techs have the Colts 5-0 ATS L5. Overall Indianapolis takes out these

Panthers vs. Ravens Week 4 NFL Prediction from Dave Price: September 28th 2014

PANTHERS VS. RAVENS PREDICTIONCarolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (September 28th 2014)
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The Panthers were crushed at home by Pittsburgh last week, but I expect this resilient team to bounce back strong. Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss of more than 14 points. Carolina was one of the best defensive teams in the NFL last season, ranking only behind Seattle in yards allowed per game (301.3). It only gave up an average of 293.5 yards through its first two games before allowing 454 yards last week. You can bet that performance isn’t sitting well with this proud defense. The Panthers have been a phenomenal road team, going 6-1 SU in their last seven. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog and have won these games by an average score of 24.9 to 19.4. The Ravens sneaked past Cleveland last week, but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take the points.

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