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Jets vs. Chiefs Week 9 NFL Pick from Jimmy Adams: November 2nd 2014

JETS VS. CHIEFS WEEK 9 NFL PICK NOVEMBER 9TH 2014New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9 NFL Pick: Kansas City -9.5 (November 2nd 2014)

What a disaster the Jets have become. Losers of 7 straight, they now must go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. It’s pretty clear by now that Rex Ryan just isn’t cut out to be a head coach in the NFL. He and his brother are decent assistants, but it’s time for some major changes in New York. Geno Smith threw for a total of 5 yards and was picked off 3 times before being benched in favor of Michael Vick last week. I don’t know that we’ve ever seen a performance that horrific, and the bad news is that Vick didn’t play much better. Vick ran for 153 yards with an interception and lost 2 fumbles after replacing Smith. Giving away the ball like that won’t win you any games, especially against a solid Chiefs stop unit, known for forcing turnovers.

So Vick’s now the starter and his first start comes against the coach that knows him best, Andy Reid. Vick played for Reid in Philadelphia, so Reid will know exactly what to do in terms of defending him. It won’t be very difficult, because Vick is pretty much washed up at this point in his career. He’s lost most of his athleticism and remains injury prone.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. This defense is #1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing only 195.7 passing ypg. They also rank 3rd overall in points allowed at just 18.3. This anemic Jets offense against a Chiefs D that is one of the best in league spells out an easy win for us. Take the Chiefs.

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San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins Week 9 NFL Pick: November 2nd 2014

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 9 NFL Pick: San Diego +1.5 (November 2nd 2014)

Loved Miami as our 10* Member play last Sunday and they didn’t disappoint us, easily handling instate rival, Jacksonville, 27-13. This Sunday is much different as they host a solid Chargers team that is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Their defense is stringy, holding their first 5 foes this season to 21 points or less and offensively QB Rivers is having one of his best seasons in his career while averaging 25.6 points per game! San Diego is 5-3 SU this year, with ALL 3 losses came against winning teams- Denver (6-1), Arizona (6-1) ans Kansas City (4-3), who own a combined 16-5 record this year. The Chargers come off back-to-back losses, but both were against AFC West division rivals and those division teams know each other well. Don’t expect San Diego is too talented to lose 3 straight games, especially knowing that they’re 4-0 ATS on the road after losing 2 straight Division games with QB Rivers starting under center.

Saints vs. Panthers Week 9 Point Spread & Prediction: October 30th 2014

SAINTS VS. PANTHERS SPREAD PICK WEEK 9 OCTOBER 30TH 2014New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 9 Point Spread: New Orleans -3 Over/Under 49 (October 30th 2014)

ATS Trends:
Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC South. Panthers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South. Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 vs. NFC South. Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 9. Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games in October. Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games in Week 9. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Saints last 8 games following a S.U. win. Over is 25-10 in Saints last 35 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Over is 44-21-1 in Saints last 66 games following a ATS win.


Head-to-Head Trends:
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Carolina. Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings. Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Carolina.

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New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 NFL Pick: November 2nd 2014

KANSAS CITY VS. NEW YORK WEEK 9 NFL PICKNew York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9 NFL Pick: Jets +10.5 (November 2nd 2014)

The oddsmakers aren’t giving the 1-7 New York Jets much of a chance this weekend, they’ve opened as a double-digit underdog. After making significant strides against two playoff bound teams (including a tough 27-25 setback in New England), New York would lay an egg in front of the home town crowd in last week’s embarrassing 43-23 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The pathetic effort means that we’ve seen the last of Geno Smith as starting QB for the foreseeable future, and backup Mike Vick will finally get his shot in the Big Apple. I think change is a good thing, I had the Redskins on Monday night and Colt McCoy definitely proved that statement correct. From a trend based angle, this is a strong play as well, note already 1-0 ATS this year as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Jets are 3-0 ATS in the same position over the last two. I also think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Kansas City after its big divisional victory over the Chargers last week; note that the Chiefs are just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 vs. teams with losing records and only 7-12 ATS their last 19 at home. “Desperation” is often a factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line and that’s the case here in my opinion. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up; consider a second look at the JETS in this one.

Redskins vs. Cowboys Monday Night Over-Under Pick: October 27th 2014

REDSKINS VS. COWBOYS OVER-UNDER PICK OCTOBER 27TH 2014Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Over-Under Betting Pick: Under 49.5 points (October 27th 2014)

After the weekend I had, I am in no way putting out a premium play today laying near 10 in the NFL, so that usually means a win. I got crushed all weekend and the NFL was no different, and Sunday was rough on more than a few people. However if I would have had a good weekend I would put this out. Sometimes it is what you DON’T do that counts. Premium Plays will wait, but here is my take on MNF.

With numerous teams capping 50 points this weekend, you look at this dominant Dallas offense and wonder why they cannot tonight. If they stick to what has got them to this point, that means they will run first and pass second, and that eats clock. Washington’s defense is injury riddled and ranked 25th in the NFL in points allowed and they have allowed more points than anyone in the division to date.

Dallas shit hammered them last year in Dallas 31-16 and Dallas was not near as sharp as they are this year. Washington themselves cannot run the ball, ranked 22nd in the NFL at 99 ypg and tonight Colt McCoy gets the start for the first time as a Redskin as the Kirk Cousins experiment failed miserably, no thanks to his offensive line. Bear in mind McCoy is a 3rd team backup for a reason folks.

The Dallas defense is better solely because the offense is re-vamped and running the ball and controlling the clock, and taking the pressure off QB Romo and giving the defense long lapses before returning to the field and they are fresh. Since Washington will struggle against the run, I see more domination from the Dallas OL tonight, and ample opportunity for Dallas to score, especially at home here tonight.

I do not see Washington scoring a ton here, and I see a clock eating, in your face, down your throat run attack with a few big play action plays to Dez Bryant and company and Witten thrown in on seam routes when the run is working. Washington is a work in progress for first year coach Jay Gruden, and Dallas trying to really step up and win this division with NY and Philly falling from grace.

Redskins vs. Cowboys MNF Betting Odds & Prediction: October 27th 2014

REDSKINS VS. COWBOYS MNF ODDS PREDICTION OCTOBER 27TH 2014The Washington Redskins (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U) are hoping to get starting quarterback Robert Griffin III shortly, but may have to wait one more week. Dallas (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U) continues to roll winning six straight, you never know what might happen when they face their rivals. On Monday night, Dallas hosts Washington from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tx, at 8:30pmET (ESPN).

Betting odds: Dallas opened as a 7-point betting odds favorite and moved to 9.5 in most books. The total opened at 51 and moved to 49.5.

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Prediction: Washington is expected to send out their third-string quarterback Colt McCoy, from his old stomping grounds in

Texas against the Cowboys. McCoy replaced Kirk Cousins last week in their win over Tennessee, 19-17. Washington needed a lift in the second half and rookie head coach Jay Gruden made the change to start the second half.

Starting quarterback Robert Griffin III has been out since Week 2 due to a disclocated anle suffered against Jacksonville. He’s been getting closer to returning, but is considered doubtful. McCoy, the former Cleveland Browns signal-caller, hasn’t started since December 2011.

McCoy was 6-15 in his career at Cleveland, but played extremely well in the second half against the Titans. He finished 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon to halt Washington’s four-game losing streak.

Cousins had thrown 10 touchdown passes and nine interceptions in five starts.

Washington’s best chance to win this game is to run the ball. Alfred Morris is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry with 124 yards over the past three games. That may have something to do with RGIII not being there because his ability to run has defenses focusing on him.

Defensively, Washington allows just 322 yards per game, to rank sixth in the NFL, but they surreneder 26.1 points per game. They also lost outside linebacker Brian Orakpo for hte season with a torn pectoral muscle.

They do play the run pretty well, allowing 103.3 yards per game and 219 yards per game in the air.

Dallas struggled early on last week, but came back with another impressive win over the New York Giants, 31-21. The star for the Cowboys this season has been running back DeMarco Murray, who set an NFL record by going over 100 yards for seven straight games to start the season. The ability of Dallas to run the football and not just rely on quarterback Tony Romo, allows the defense to get sufficient rest and that’s played a part in their resurgence this year.

Romo did throw three touchdown passes last week, while Murry gained 128 yards on 28 carries. Romo has tossed 13 touchdowns with three interceptions since their only loss in Game 1 against San Francisco. Two of his three touchdown passes went to unheralded tight end Gavin Escobar. Dez Bryant led all receivers with nine catches for 151 yards.

The success of the running game is really about Dallas spending three first-round picks on left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and rookie right guard Zack Martin.

Defensively, Dallas allows just 343.9 yards per game and 113.4 yards on the ground. That’s not great, but considering they were supposed to be one of the worst defenses of all time, coordinator Rod Marinelli has done a fantastic job. Last season, they ranked last in the NFL, allowing 415.3 yards per game.

The Redskins need a big game from Morris, who averages 120.5 yards and has six TDs in his last four games against Dallas. Washington has a young secondary with DeAngelo Hall out for the season with an Achilles injury. Romo should test them early and often.

St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Royals Betting Pick: October 26th 2014

St. Louis Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Betting Pick: St. Louis Rams +7 (October 26th 2014)

The Key: The Rams are off a big win over Seattle but expect no letdown. They have been extremely competitive this season, taking Dallas to overtime and losing to Philadelphia on the road by only six. Those teams are 11-2 combined. Jeff Fisher’s teams are 10-0 ATS all-time off an upset win at home over a division rival. They have won by an average score of 23.6 to 16.5 in this spot. The Chiefs have been overvalued at home a lot lately and are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven at Arrowhead as a result. Kansas City runs the ball well, and the Rams have struggled to stop the run. However, I look for them to have success against the Kansas City running game today. The Chiefs don’t pose much of a threat with their 30th-ranked passing offense so look for the Rams to stack the box and keep Jamaal Charles in check. Take the points.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Week 8 NFL Pick: October 26th 2014

COLTS VS. STEELERS WEEK 8 NFL PICK OCTOBER 26TH 2014Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8 NFL Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5 (October 26th 2014)

Pittsburgh is in a good spot, so we’ll take the points with the Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis comes into this game in Pittsburgh off five straight wins and covers after opening the season with back-to-back losses. The Colts cannot sustain the way they’ve been playing, and the spread looks super inflated based on their recent play.

Indianapolis still has a mediocre defense that is allowing 5.8 yards per play to opponents that also average 5.8 yards per play. The Colts haven’t faced a strong offense since their first two games of the season when they played the Broncos and Eagles; Indianapolis gave up 61 points in those two games. Indianapolis is not as good as their recent results, and this game provides an opportunity to play against the Colts, especially since they are laying points on the road.

Pittsburgh is playing a second straight home game for the first time this season; the Steelers beat Houston 30-23 on Monday night. This will be Pittsburgh’s fourth home game after playing four of their first six games on the road. The Steelers’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 118 points over their last five games. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has completed 66.9% (121-181) of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception in those five games. Indianapolis’ defense has been poor on the road this season as they are allowing 6.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.8 yards per play. Pittsburgh is in a good spot, so we’ll take the points with the Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction: October 26th 2014

SEATTLE VS. CAROLINA WEEK 8 PREDICTION OCTOBER 26TH 2014Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers
Football Prediction: Seattle -5 (October 26th 2014)

Seattle looks to avoid it’s third straight loss on the road at Carolina this week, while the Panthers are trying to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Packers in Green Bay last week. Carolina has really struggled defensively, surrendering a total of 75 points the last two weeks.

Seattle out-gained the Rams 463-272, but they were hoodwinked by Jeff Fisher and his bag of tricks. Russell Wilson had a big game throwing for over 300 yards and two TDs running for 100+ yards and a score.

The Seahawks have won three straight versus the Panthers, and the last two were in Carolina. Wilson had a big game throwing for 320 yards and a TD in last year’s 12-7 win. Cam Newton on the other hand has not had much success against this Seattle defense. He threw for just 123 yards on 16-of-23 passing in last season’s Week 1 loss.

The Panthers are 2-1 at home this season, but their one loss was an ugly 37-19 blowout versus the Steelers. It looked like they would go on to lose to Chicago a few weeks later, going down 21-7 early, but they rallied to score 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, winning by a score of 31-24.

The Seahawks have been a good bet on the road in recent seasons, covering the points in 12 of their last 16 road games.

NFL Picks: Bet the Titans and the Bengals on Sunday, October 26th 2014

NFL PICKS SUNDAY OCTOBER 26TH 2014NFL Picks: Sunday, October 26th 2014

NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5
I understand playing against a team where their quarterbacks is making first start, especially a rookie quarterback that wasn’t drafted until the sixth round (See Tom Brady), but, money that is flooding in on the Texans will provide great valve with the Titans when the air clears. Tennessee will be starting their fifth quarterback in the last three seasons and the team knows it must rally on the defensive side of the ball. The advantage here going to the home team as the Houston offense in nothing to brag about. The Texans blocks for rushing game are too primitive and the Titans have a tough front seven. I don’t expect an easy day for Arian Foster. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clockbomb. He is able to made a big play in the game but never without turnovers.

The Texans’ defense depends on JJ Watt. The Titans’ O-Line has been look solid and Maybe Ken Wisenhunt will order double blocks on Watt. The secondary is a hole and the linebackers an empty unit. The D-Line in a 3-4 scheme is supporting the entire defense. I expect the Titans to dominate the sccrimmage line in both sides of the ball and take the game! -Oliver Alonso

NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +1
The Free NFL System Club Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. Game 268 at 1:00 eastern. The Bengals were shutout last week by the Colts and now return home to face a Hot Baltimore team that they beat on the road in week 1. Cincy will look to get back on track and home teams that scored 9 or less points and lost on the road by 21 or more are perfect to the spread since 1989 vs an opponent off a home win that scored 28 or more points. In Fact road teams that are off back to back wins by 15 or more points are 4-19 ats if the line is -3 to +2 and their opponent is off a loss. The Ravens are 1-14 ats on the road off a home win where they had 3 or more minutes in time of possession than their season average. The Bengals are 8-0 ats if they had a turnover margin of +2 or more. Look for the Bengals to get th win. On Sunday the NFC Game of the year is the lead play with 3 Never lost systems and Angles. In early action we have the 6* AFC Side with 5 Exclusive systems, a Dog with bite from a 24-3 system, th Sunday night Totals play with 16 Totals angles and more. NFL is ranked #1 on several prestigious leader boards. Get on now and put Power of this devastating data on your side as we end the week big. For the free play take the Cincinnati Bengals. -Rob Vinciletti