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Jaguars vs. Titans Week 16 Prediction for Thursday Night: December 18th 2014

JAGUARS VS. TITANS THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION DECEMBER 18TH 2014The NFL returns for Week 16 with an intriguing matchup. That might be only for bettors and fans of the AFC South. Marcus Mariota may also wonder if the loser has a great chance of drafting him as the top pick of the draft. Tennessee (2-12 SU, 3-10-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U) is having a very disappointing season, after losing eight straight games. Jacksonville (2-12 SU, 4-9-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U) is performing up to expectations. Tennessee travels to EverBank Field in Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Thursday at 8:25pmET.

Betting odds: Jacksonville opened a 3-point betting odds favorite and moved to 3.5. The total opened at 41 and moved to 40.5.

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Prediction:
Tennessee has lost eight straight and they have a pretty good chance of gaining the number one draft choice. Last week, the Titans lost to the lowly New York Jets, 16-11 at home. In that game, Jake Locker injured his shoulder and third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst took over.

The Titans were already playing without rookie Zach Mettenberger (shoulder). Now Locker will miss the rest of the season after being placed on injured reserve. There’s no way they can rely on Locker, a former No. 8 pick in the 2011 draft, as their future quarterback, Mattenberger might be the guy and Whitehurst is a career backup for a reason. He completed just 10-of-24 for 203 yards against the Jets. Just in case he gets injured, the Titans brought in another journeyman in Jordan Palmer.

Whitehurst is 1-2 as a starter with a solid 89.1 passer rating. His lone win came against the Jaguars in October when he completed 17-of-28 for 233 yards. Tight end Delanie Walker leads the Titans with 793 receiving yards to rank fourth in the league at his position.

The Titans rank last in third-down percentage (29%), 31st in time of possession (27:03) and have gone two straight games without an offensive touchdown. They’ve averaged a lousy 307.9 yards per game and less than 14 points per game during their eight-game winning streak.

The running game has exactly helped out the passing game as they’ve amassed less than 65 yards per game in their losing streak. Defensively, they’ve allowed a league-worst 139.6 yards per game on the ground.

Rookie Blake Bortles has taken all sorts of punishment this season. Last week, he was sacked eight times against Baltimore, in a 20-12 loss. Bortles threw for 210 yards with an interception as the Jaguars were held to 248 total yards.

After the game, Bortles was forced to wear a walking boot due to a mild-foot sprain. In the first meeting against the Titans, Bortles threw for a career-high 336 yards and a touchdown in their 16-14 loss on the road. He was sacked six times in that game.

The offense has been just as dismal as the Titans, if not worse. The Jaguars rank 31st in the NFL while averaging 293.8 yards per game. Bortles has the league’s second-worst passer rating at 70.6, throwing 10 touchdown passes with 17 interceptions. Bortles has been sacked 41 times sine he’s taken over for Chad Henne.

The defense is ranked 28th in the league, as they allow 372.6 yards per game. That can be somewhat deceiving as the offense has put the Jaguars in bad field position most of the time.

Analysis:
This won’t be pretty. The Titans have lost six straight on the road and eight straight overall. On the road, they’ve been outscored by an average of 34 to 16 in those games. Yet, they are taking on a team that can’t move the ball. Should be fun.

Titans vs. Jaguars Week 16 NFL Pick & Point Spread: December 18th 2014

TITANS VS. JAGUARS POINT SPREAD DECEMBER 18TH 2014Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 16 Point Spread: Jacksonville -3 Over/Under 38 (December 18th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Jaguars are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games following a S.U. loss. Jaguars are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 home games. Jaguars are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Titans are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss. Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Titans are 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC. Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 Thursday games. Under is 16-5-1 in Jaguars last 22 vs. AFC South. Over is 6-2 in Jaguars last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 5-2 in Jaguars last 7 games on grass. Under is 7-3 in Jaguars last 10 games overall. Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games in December. Over is 9-2 in Titans last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 Thursday games. Over is 4-1-1 in Titans last 6 games in Week 16. Under is 6-2 in Titans last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Jacksonville. Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville. Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

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Chargers vs. 49ers Week 16 Betting Prediction: December 20th 2014

San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Betting Prediction: Chargers +1 (December 20th 2014)
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Where do I begin with the once mighty Niners, and their “Who’s got it better than us” rally chant?

This is an organization that strangely reminds us of those Mcnabb led Eagles teams a decade ago; good but couldn’t get over the hump. When the Eagles reign finally fell apart, it fell apart fast.

Harbaugh and company have given up, and are ready to end their relationship as soon as possible. The team’s demise started when they lost to Navarro Bowman to a season long injury; then everything came apart and is still falling apart. I don’t have the time to write about how bad their offense is, but their mentally fragile.

The Chargers are a team that feasts on teams they should beat. This Chargers team is better than most think, and they have a solid QB with weapons at his disposal. The Chargers are fighting to stay alive for a playoffs birth, and are a organize team without inner and outer distractions. San Diego is 7-3 ATS on the road while the Niners are 2-6 ATS at home. Take the Chargers.

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Seattle vs. Arizona Week 16 NFL Betting Pick from Joe D’Amico: December 21st 2014

SEAHAWKS VS. CARDINALSSeattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 16 NFL Pick: Arizona +9.5 (December 21st 2014)
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At 11-3, Arizona owns the best record in the NFC with Seattle just one game behind them at 10-4. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 19-3 back on November 23. Since then, Seattle’s defense has continued to dominate. The problem is that the Seahawks offense has sputtered, big-time. The Cardinals have backup QB, Ryan Lindley calling the plays here. Not a rookie anymore, Linley has become a mature, intelligent team player. With the NFC West lead on the line, I expect head coach Bruce Arians to get his chemistry-rich team up once again here. The Cardinals are 7-0 straight up at home, going 6-1ATS. With running back, Kerwyn Williams finding his stride, this will allow Lindley time to find his talented corps of receivers, Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown. The Arizona offense can eat up enough clock to stay in this game. On defense, the Cardinals will bring the sixth best rushing “D” in the league here and slow down the Seahawks only offensive threat in running back, Marshawn Lynch. With quarterback, Russell Wilson still struggling and the offense really spluttering in the pass, I don’t expect Seattle to light up the scoreboard here. Arizona is 6-0 ATS their L6 games played at home, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in December, 12-3 ATS their L15 vs. the NFC, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the points here. Play Arizona. Thank you.

Packers vs. Bucs Week 16 NFL Pick from AAA Sports: December 21st 2014

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Week 16 NFL Pick: Green Bay -10 (December 21st 2014)
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Last week I gave you a free play on the Jacksonville Jaguars, an easy winner that almost took the game outright. This week I’m looking at a larger favorite, but one which I think has a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons working in its favor.

I definitely feel that the Green Bay Packers are worth a second look in this spot. The Packers five game win streak would get snapped in last week’s listless 21-13 setback at Buffalo, however take note that it was the second straight week that Green Bay failed to cover the spread. A date vs. the inconsistent Buccaneers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion, Tampa is coming off its fourth straight SU loss in last week’s 19-17 setback at Carolina. The Packers are in a dog fight with Detroit for the NFC North’s top seed, added incentive today to take full advantage of their weaker opponent. Note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Tampa Bay is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 20 points or less in three straight games. At this time of year, “situations” become very a important tool for handicappers, consider a play on GREEN BAY this weekend.

Chicago vs. New Orleans MNF Betting Odds & Prediction: December 15th 2014

BEARS VS. SAINTS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ODDS PREDICTIONThe New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 10-3 O/U) are still in the AFC South hunt and can grab first place in the NFC South with a win on Monday night. The Chicago Bears (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 8-5 O/U) wish they were in the NFC South and instead are just playing for pride. The Bears host the Saints on Monday night from Soldier Field at 8:30pmET (ESPN).

Betting odds: New Orleans opened as a 3-point betting odds favorite and remained there in most books. The total opened at 53.5 and moved to 54.

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Prediction:
Atlanta gave the Saints an opportunity to take control of the NFC South after losing to Pittsburgh, 27-20 at the Georgia Dome on Sunday. That gave the inconsistent Saints an opportunity to win their third straight road game. For whatever reason, the Saints can’t win a home game as they’ve lost four straight from the Superdome.

The biggest issue for the Saints is to score points, because they allow 398.7 yards per game to rank 31st in the NFL. Quarterback Drew Brees threw for a season-low 235 yards and a touchdown to Benjamin Watson last week, in their 41-10 home loss to Carolina, who is now 5-8-1.

Against Chicago, Bees has five TD passe and no picks in his last two meetings against the Bears. Running back Mark Ingram has taken some of the pressure off the passing game with 810 yards rushing and six scores. They also lack a dominant receiver aside from tight end Jimmy Graham, who leads with 68 catches for 695 yards and nine TDs.

Defensively, the Saints have been abysmal most of the season. In the last five games, they’ve allowed at least 27 points and they’ve given up at least 472.3 yards per game in the past four. They are expected to bench second-year safety Kenny Vaccaro and make several other defensive changes.

The Chicago Bears have lost two straight, but at least they had several days extra rest since they lost at home to Dallas on Dec. 4, 41-28. The Beras are similar to New Orleans in the fact that they don’t play much defense. The Bears in fact, have the league’s worst defense as they allow 29.1 points per game and an average of 377.8 yards per game.

Offensively, quarterback Jay Cutler is getting a lot of grief over the fact that he signed a seven-year, $126.7 million deal that includes $54 million guaranteed in the offseason. Cutler has done what he’s always done, which is put up great fantasy numbers (3,446 yards, 26 TDs, 15 INTs), but also has six fumbles (tied for league lead). His 15 picks are the second-most he’s had in his career.

The Bears not only lost to Dallas laset Thursday, but also lost wide receiver Brandon Marshall. The veteran receiver was placed on the injured reserve earlier this week, after he suffered broken ribs and a lung injury in the fist half. He ended his season with 61 receptions for 721 yards, his lowest totals since his rookie season.

Running back Matt Forte is their most consistent weapon with 854 yards rushing and 86 catches for 724 yards. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery leads with 73 catches for 949 yards and eight scores. Tight end Martellus Bennett is also having a big year with 77 catches for 821 yards and six scores.

The defense seems to play well against teams like Minnesota and Tampa Bay, but they gave up 50-plus points against Green Bay and New England. They’ve also allowed a combined 75 pionts in losses to Detroit and Dallas. Willie Young leads with 8.5 sacks, while Jared Allen adds a disappointing 5.0 sacks.

Brees has been a monster on Monday Night Football, throwing 32 touchdown passes with just six interceptions, winning nine of his last 11 starts. However, he did lose at home to Baltimore on Monday night, 34-27 on Nov. 24.

Saints vs. Bears Week 15 Point Spread & Pick: December 15th 2014

SAINTS VS. BEARS WEEK 15 SPREAD PICK DECEMBER 15TH 2014New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Week 15 Point Spread: New Orleans -3 Over/Under 54 (December 15th 2014)
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ATS Trends:
Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Saints are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 21-6 in Bears last 27 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 7-2 in Bears last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 9-3 in Bears last 12 vs. NFC. Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a ATS loss. Under is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games on grass. Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 9-4 in Saints last 13 Monday games.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Home team is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Saints are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

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Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction from Tony Karpinski: December 14th 2014

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Betting Prediction: San Diego +5 (December 14th 2014)
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Denver has their pass rush on with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller, who have been chasing QB’s all over the field this season, with 23 sacks between them. Peyton Manning has been playing a bit on the lower end of what we are used to from him. The middle of the field has been a tough spot for him to work, and with these LBs in San Diego, it will remain so. C.J. Anderson will have a problem facing the Chargers, who have not allowed a RB to score on the ground since Week 9. They will get the 3rd down conversions, but I think they see more FGs in the red zone this week, than TDs. San Diego is a tough team to play at home. They are coming off tough loss to NE, that they could have won. Philip Rivers has been a bit more conservative moving the ball, throwing for a little under 7 YD/completion in the last 5 games, and was very accurate vs the Broncos, in Denver. This game will be close throughout. The lack of ground game here, will make no difference. San Diego will get their red-zone defense in high gear and will stop the Broncos when it counts. Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games San Diego wins taking the points

Boyd sees value betting on the Bills at home over the Packers: December 14th 2014

BILLS VS. PACKERS DECEMBER 14TH PICKGreen Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills +5.5 (December 14th 2014)
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As difficult as it may be to go against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers right now, I think the Bills are showing some solid value here as a home underdog. All three of Green Bay’s losses this season have come on the road and their only win away from home by more than 5-points was at Chicago back in Week 4.

Not only have the Packers not been near as impressive on the road as they have at home, they find themselves in a tough spot. Green Bay will be working on short rest after facing Atlanta on Monday Night Football. The Falcons no huddle attack clearly wore down the Packers defense and I look for Green Bay to struggle defensively here against the Bills. Backing this theory up is the fact that the Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.

Adding to the concerns with the Packers defense is their secondary was torched for 375 and 4 touchdowns by Matt Ryan and a lot of those yards came after Green Bay had built up a 24-point lead and knew the Falcons were going to be airing it out. Kyle Orton just completed 38 attempts for 355 yards against the Broncos last week, so expect to see Buffalo looking to air it out early and often in this one.

You also have to factor in that Buffalo has the defense to keep Rodgers and the Packers high-powered attack in check. The Bills come in ranked 8th against the run (99.2 ypg) and 5th against the pass (212.8 ypg). They went into Denver and held the Broncos to just 306 yards of total offense last week. What really stands out is they held Peyton Manning to just 173 yards passing and no touchdowns, snapping Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with at least 1 touchdown pass.

It’s also worth noting that the 24-points the Bills allowed to the Broncos was the most they have given up in their last 7 games. With the way the Packers are struggling defensively against the pass, I think Buffalo not only has what it takes to keep this close enough to cover, but I could easily see them winning this game outright.

There’s a strong system in play backing a fade of Green Bay. Road teams who scored 30 or more points in their last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half of their last game are just 47-89 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s a 65% system in favor of the Bills. Take Buffalo!

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction: December 14th 2014

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Betting Prediction: Falcons +3 (December 14th 2014)
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Pittsburgh kept its hopes of winning a division title alive with last week’s upset win in Cincinnati. However, playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset win has resulted in a 266-186 ATS record since 1983. The Steelers have not performed well in the role of road favorite, going just 10-17 ATS in their last 27 as road chalk with Big Ben Roethlisberger under center. The offense was humming in Cincinnati last week, but the Steelers are 0-7 ATS in road games after averaging 7.0 yards per play or more in their previous game under coach Tomlin. They have lost these contests by an average score of 21.3 to 14.9. Pittsburgh is also 10-20 ATS following a win of 14 points or more under Tomlin. The Falcons, on the other hand, are 6-0 ATS after giving up 6.0 yards per play or more in three consecutive games under coach Smith. Under their current coach, they are also 6-0 ATS in home games after trailing their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime and 6-0 ATS after playing Monday Night Football. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

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