Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons o35.5 (-110) NFL Odds - Friday August 22nd ‘08 7:30p
The Atlanta Falcons and the Tennessee Titans have not put up many points this preseason, but we expect that to change on Friday night. Rookie Matt Ryan has been the most effective quarterback for the Falcons this preseason, and he is expected to play into the third quarter this week along with the Atlanta regulars. This will give him ample opportunity to showcase his skills, and he is already considered the favorite to win the starting job right out of Boston College. It certainly helps to have the support of running back Michael Turner for at least a half, as he has escaped from the shadow of LT in San Diego to already rush for 135 yards this preseason. The Titans did not look crisp offensively in a 17-16 win over the Raiders last week, and the 34 points they scored in their preseason opener is deceptive as the starting offense only scored one touchdown. Still, Tennessee is better than they have shown, and a shaky Atlanta defense should be just what the Titans need to break out of their offensive doldrums. Yes, it is preseason, but with the starters for both teams expected to see more action than in any other exhibition game this year, look for some more scoring than usual. NFL Preseason Free Pick: Titans, Atlanta Falcons Over 35.5 (-110)

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2008 Houston Texans NFL Football Predictions
Overview: Its official: the Texans have arrived!  The league has finally put Houston on the map, giving them a home game for Monday Night Football for the first time in team history.  Houston made huge strides last year under head coach Gary Kubiak’s second season, finishing 8-8, their best record in the six year history of the franchise.  They also enjoyed their first semblance of a home field advantage, finishing 6-2, the first time they’ve had a winning record at home.
 
It’s very hard to move up the pecking order in the AFC South.  The other three teams in this division all won at least ten games and earned a playoff berth last year.  Houston went 1-5 in their division and still finished .500 in ’08, a true testament to the talent that resides in the AFC South.  Even if the Texans stay healthier than they did last year, when they suffered numerous injury problems on both sides of the football, forcing Kubiak to use eleven different starting lineups on offense in 16 games, it’s still hard to project this team as a legitimate playoff contender.
 
Offense: Yards per play is a fairly good statistical measure of an offense’s capability, far better than ‘points scored’.  Last year, the Texans offense ranked fifth in the NFL in this category, behind only the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers and Colts, each of whom won at least twelve games.  Gary Kubiak designs good offenses, plain and simple, with a tremendous track record from his tenure as the offensive coordinator in Denver.  But the Texans -13 turnover margin (largely due to their defense’s inability to create takeaways) must improve for Houston to approach the 12+ win seasons from those other elite level clubs listed above.
 
Matt Schaub signed a fat six year contract to be the Texans starting quarterback prior to last season.  But Schaub couldn’t stay healthy, and backup Sage Rosenfels went 4-1 as a starter when he was injured, playing as well or better than the high priced Schaub.  Schaub comes into 2008 as the starter with a lot to prove.  That being said, between them, Schaub and Rosenfels completed more than 65% of their pass attempts last season, throwing for 3900 yards and 24 touchdowns.
 
The Texans suffered from depth problems at running back last year when Ahman Green couldn’t stay healthy.  This year, Houston brought in another running back with a history of injury problems, Chris Brown from Tennessee.  They drafted the explosive but undersized Steve Slaton out of West Virginia, a back who appears to be a perfect fit for this offense, even if he’s only expected to be a third down, ‘change-of-pace’ back as a rookie.
 
Andre Johnson is a legitimate difference maker for this offense, but he, too, has suffered from injury woes throughout his career.  Houston went 6-3 with Johnson in the lineup last year; just 2-5 without him.  There’s solid depth here.  Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter and Andre Davis all had breakout seasons in 2007.  Tight ends are crucial in this offense.  Starter Owen Daniels is an emerging talent, catching 63 passes last season.
 
This offensive line has gradually been getting better in recent years.  They allowed an NFL worst 68 sacks in 2005; improved to 43 sacks allowed in 2006 and knocked it all the way down to 22 sacks allowed last year.  However, the running game was subpar in ’07, gaining less than 100 yards per game.
 
This year, the offensive line has three major upgrades from a season ago.  First and foremost, Kubiak hired offensive line guru Alex Gibbs as the ‘assistant head coach.  Gibbs is the zone blocking maestro, who worked with Kubiak in Denver.  Then Houston drafted their left tackle of the future, Duane Brown from Virginia Tech in the first round.  Lastly, they traded for former Broncos center Chris Myers, who started all 16 games in Denver last season.  Former first rounder Eric Winston has started 23 straight games at right tackle, and Chester Pitts has started 96 consecutive games at guard.  We can project that this offensive line will continue to improve.
 
Defense: The Texans were roundly criticized for passing on Reggie Bush with the #1 overall selection in 2005, drafting defensive end Mario Williams instead.  After a rough rookie season, Williams was much better than Bush last year, offering management some redemption.  In fact, over the last seven games of the season, Super Mario was awesome, blowing up the line of scrimmage regularly while notching ten sacks during that span.  Last year’s #1 Amobi Okoye showed signs of his potential and enjoyed a tremendous offseason.  Perhaps he’ll have the same type of breakout season in ’08 as Williams had in ’07.  The remainder of the defensive line has decent depth, but no impact players.
 
Linebacker DeMeco Ryans earned a pro bowl berth last year, the leader of the defense.  In his first two years in the NFL, no player in the league has more tackles than Ryans.  Free agent acquisition Roosevelt Colvin (New England) should help them on passing downs.  Marlon Greenwood has developed into a solid player on the outside.  This is a solid unit.
 
The Texans allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes against them last year.  They intercepted only eleven passes while allowing 25 touchdowns.  Opposing quarterbacks put up a 93.7 QB rating against them, and the unit doesn’t appear to be much better heading into 2008.  Their best cover cornerback, Dunta Robinson is still recovering from a torn ACL.  There is no timetable yet for his return, and he’s expected to start the season on the PUP list.  Free agent acquisition Jacques Reaves started 13 games for the Cowboys last year.  Second year pro Fred Bennett has taken the other starting slot in camp.  Third round draft choice Antwaun Moldin (Eastern Kentucky) is not expected to have a significant impact in his rookie year.  Veterans DeMarcus Faggins, Jamar Fletcher and Dexter Wynn are all fighting for roster spots.
 
Schedule: Houston faced one of the toughest slates in the NFL last year, but their strength of schedule in 2008 is middle of the pack, a real drop-off.  The Texans aren’t likely to start strong, facing three playoff teams from last year (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Tennessee) on the road in the first four weeks.  After that rough stretch, however, the Texans might offer great value without a single road game in the month of October.  Remember, this team is 10-5 ATS at home in Kubiak’s first two seasons at the helm.

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2008 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Football Predictions
Overview: While the Colts, Patriots and Chargers remain the 900 pound gorillas in the AFC, Jacksonville lurks right behind them in the pecking order.  Make no mistake about it – this team is thinking ‘Super Bowl’.  Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter designed high octane attacks at the collegiate level at Boise State and Arizona State.  Last year, under his tutelage, the Jags ranked fourth in the AFC in points scored, behind only the three behemoths listed above.  Jacksonville lost defensive coordinator Mike Smith in the offseason when he accepted the Atlanta Falcons head coaching job.  New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was stellar in this role in previous stints with the Redskins and Titans, at one point the highest paid assistant in the NFL.
 
Offense: After years of quarterback controversy, the Jaguars finally settled on David Garrard as the full time starter last year.  That move paid enormous dividends, as the Jags scored more points than they had in any previous year this decade.  Garrard’s leadership and his cool, confident demeanor on the field during crunch time were every bit as important as his stats.  The Jags went 9-3 with him as the starter, and Garrard threw for 2500 yards, completing 64 percent of his passes with an impressive 18-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  There’s no arguing with a 102.2 quarterback rating.  Garrard signed a big fat $60 million dollar contract extension in the offseason, cementing his role in the Jaguars long term plans.  Cleo Lemon is a solid career backup behind him.
 
One preseason guide calls Fred Taylor the ‘power’ back and Maurice Jones-Drew the ‘speed’ back.  Another guide reverses those two designations.  The reality is that both backs have power AND speed; each capable of gaining tough yards up the middle or bursting through the hole and going the distance for a touchdown.  The Jaguars use them virtually interchangeably.  Between them, Jacksonville had the #2 rushing offense in the NFL last year.  Jones-Drew’s presence deserves at least some of the credit for the words ‘Fred Taylor’ and ‘injury prone’ no longer linked together by every pundit in the world.
 
The Jags spent big in free agency to upgrade at wide receiver.  The two big additions – Jerry Porter from Oakland and Troy Williamson from Minnesota – both have checkered pasts.  Porter has the potential to be a legitimate #1 receiver, while Williamson has the blazing speed to give the passing game a big play threat, although his hands aren’t very good and he’s never lived up to expectations.  Reggie Williams is a solid threat in the red zone, catching ten touchdowns last year.  Dennis Northcutt is an excellent fit as a slot receiver.  The Jags have a trio of quality tight ends.  On paper, this is the best receiving corps that the Jags have had in years.
 
The Jaguars offensive line isn’t loaded with big name pro bowlers, but it’s clearly an underrated unit.  Tackles Khalif Barnes and Tony Pashos are rock solid, while center Brad Meester is well above average at his position.  Vincent Manuwai is the anchor of the line at right guard.
 
Defense: Gregg Williams likes to put all kinds of pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  That explains why the Jags traded up on draft day to bring in defensive end Derrick Harvey (Florida).  However, the Jags have been unable to agree to a contract with their top pick, and he’s still holding out as of this writing. 
 
Second round pass rush specialist Quentin Groves (Auburn) got his first NFL start this past weekend, but failed to show up in the box score.  Run stuffer extraordinaire John Henderson returns, paired with Rob Meier in the middle.  The Jags have good depth on the defensive line.  Stellar middle linebacker Mike Peterson is 32 and in a contract year, hoping for one more big payday.  Clint Ingram and Daryl Smith also start on this solid unit.
 
Jacksonville finished fourth in the NFL in interceptions last year, but they did some significant shuffling in their secondary in the offseason.  Free agent cornerback Drayton Florence started ten games with the Chargers last year, and should start alongside playmaker Rashean Mathis.  Strong safety Reggie Nelson is a star in the making, the team’s interception leader last year.  Following the offseason departure of Sammy Knight, converted cornerback Brian Williams will start at strong safety this fall.  Like the rest of the defense, this unit looks very good on paper.
 
Schedule: The Jags have been a fairly anonymous ballclub, playing in a small market as one of six NFL franchises never to reach a Super Bowl.  They’ll get a bit more national publicity this year with three TV games, including a pair in December as the playoff races reach their zenith.  The Jags won eleven games in the toughest division in the AFC last year, while facing the toughest out-of-division slate of any AFC South squad.  This year, the schedule maker has been a bit kinder, with the Jags slate of opponents the easiest in their division, not the toughest.

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2008 Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Predictions
Overview: In the salary cap era, the Colts run of regular season success is virtually unprecedented.  Indianapolis has won at least 12 regular season games in each of the last five years.  They’ve made the playoffs six straight times; eight times in the last nine seasons.  While signs point towards this being the final year of Tony Dungy’s tremendous run in Indianapolis, continuity here is virtually assured with assistant head coach Jim Caldwell ready and able to step into Dungy’s shoes when he steps down.
 
The Colts have 20 of 22 starters back from last year’s squad returning, giving them great continuity from last year’s 12 win squad heading into 2008 as the Colts prepare to open their brand new Lucas Oil Stadium.  But Indy is not a deep team by any stretch of the imagination.  This team is in trouble if they suffer injuries at almost any position – quarterback, receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers.  The effect of their top heavy salary cap structure, with the numerous established stars making the lion’s share of the money could come back to haunt them.
 
Offense: Peyton Manning has only known one offense since he arrived in the NFL in 1998.  There’s no other quarterback in the league that has enjoyed the luxury of a decade long run with only one offensive coordinator, the venerable Tom Moore.  Manning has been to eight pro bowls, and enjoyed eight 4000 yard passing seasons.  At 32 years old, only Brett Favre has more starting experience as an NFL starting quarterback than Manning. 
 
But this year, Manning has missed all of training camp while recovering from knee surgery.  Originally, the word out of Indianapolis was that Manning would definitely be ready for the start of the regular season, but rumors began surfacing this past week that Jim Sorgi could be the opening day starter, a big a drop-off as you can find between starter and backup in this league.
 
Running back Joseph Addai has struggled to stay healthy in his first two years in the league, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been dynamite.  Still, Indy was worried enough about his health to re-sign former Colt Dominic Rhodes after he was cut by the Raiders, while drafting former Michigan workhorse Mike Hart this past spring.  Kenton Keith was a solid backup last year as well, giving the Colts better depth at running back than they have at virtually any other position.
 
Hall-of-Fame receiver Marvin Harrison is 37 years old.  He missed eleven games last year, and is no longer the big play threat that he once was.  Reggie Wayne stepped into that big play role in ’07, earning a pro bowl berth, while last year’s #1 draft choice Anthony Gonzalez appears ready to step up his production in ’08. Tight end Dallas Clark is a premier level pass catcher. There is very little quality depth here behind the starters.
 
The Colts offensive line allowed only 23 sacks on 599 pass attempts last year.  Center Jeff Saturday earned a Pro Bowl berth for the third consecutive season.  Young tackle Tony Ugoh stepped right in to a starting role as a rookie and excelled, as did the perennially underrated Ryan Diem on the other side.  2008 second rounder Mike Pollack could earn a starting job at right guard this fall.  Again, there’s virtually no quality depth behind the starters here.
 
Defense: Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks covets speed, not size, for his version of the Tampa-2 defense.  This is not a defense that gives up many big plays, forcing their opponents to dink and dunk their way down the field without making mistakes.  It all starts with the Colts pass rush, as ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 89 sacks and 47 forced fumbles since 2003.  Freeney has suffered from injury problems, and hasn’t yet stepped foot on a football field this August, still recovering from last year’s season ending foot injury.  The Colts can get pushed around at the line of scrimmage with their undersized tackles.  Guess what?  Depth is a problem here.
 
All three starters are back at linebacker, a unit that has no stars and no depth.  The secondary, however, is truly a tremendous unit when safety Bob Sanders is healthy.  Sanders, however, has missed all of training camp thusfar coming off shoulder surgery.  The Colts have four excellent young cornerbacks, all in their third NFL season or less, led by Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson.  Last year, it was the secondary that was primarily responsible for the Colts registering the NFL’s best scoring defense – well, the secondary AND Peyton Manning rarely putting the defense in bad position due to turnovers.
 
Schedule: I can describe this schedule in one word: Brutal.  The Colts faced a middle-of-the-pack slate last year.  In 2008, it’s a very different story, as the Colts face the second toughest schedule in all of football.  All eight road games come against teams that are expected to be in the playoff chase.  To make matters even worse for a team with depth problems, their bye comes very early, in Week 4, giving Indy a 13 week stretch against top notch opponents without any sort of a break.

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2008 San Diego Chargers NFL Football Predictions
Overview: The San Diego Chargers have absolutely dominated the AFC West over the last two seasons, winning the division by five games in 2006 and four games last year.  They’ve gone 10-2 against their divisional rivals (both losses coming against the Chiefs) during that span.  With 20 of last years 22 starters returning, and both new projected starters being promoted from within, there’s little reason to think that the Chargers won’t roll to their third straight AFC West title in 2007. 
 
This team has great depth and continuity at every position as well as on Norv Turner’s coaching staff.  On paper, the Chargers are as good or better than any team in the NFL, even with a dozen players coming off surgery in the offseason.  One area of concern, however, lies in the stats.  The Chargers led the league with a whopping +24 turnover margin last year, and those types of numbers don’t tend to repeat themselves two years in a row.
 
Offense: Quarterback Philip Rivers is a leader and a winner, dating back to his collegiate days at NC State.  Rivers struggled at times over the first half of last season adapting to Norv Turner’s offense, throwing ten interceptions and only ten touchdown passes in his first nine games.   But he closed out the season with a nice flourish: 11 TD’s with only five picks over the Chargers final seven games.  Rivers is coming off ACL surgery, but he’s shown no lingering effects thusfar in preseason.  Clipboard holding Billy Volek is an above average backup.
 
Running back LaDainian Tomlinson has led the NFL in rushing for each of the last two years, the premier player in the NFL at his position.  This unit did suffer the free agency loss of quality backup Michael Turner and they cut aging blocking fullback extraordinaire Lorenzo Neal.  Yet the Chargers appear set, depth wise with Andrew Pinnock as the new starting fullback, Darren Sproles as a change of pace tailback, and rookies Jacob Hester (LSU, third round) and Marcus Thomas (UTEP, fifth round).
 
Tight end Antonio Gates is an elite level pass catcher; one of the best in the league at his position.  Chris Chambers made an enormous impact on the passing game after arriving midseason from the Dolphins last year, deserving at least some of the credit for Rivers second half turnaround.  Including three playoff games, Chambers had 51 catches, averaging just shy of 16 yards per reception.  Vincent Jackson emerged during the postseason, with 300 receiving yards in the playoffs.  Buster Davis was a first rounder last year, but had a limited impact in his rookie season.
 
All five starters are back on the offensive line, including pro bowlers left guard Kris Dielman and left tackle Marcus McNeill.  You could make an argument that center Nick Hardwick deserved a trip to Honolulu as well.  LJ Shelton, who started all 16 games with the Dolphins last year, was brought in during free agency to compete with second year pro Jeromey Clary at right tackle, giving San Diego a solid backup at tackle regardless of who wins the starting job.
 
Defense: San Diego defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell continues to find employment at this level despite the enormous amount of criticism that he has taken over the years.  In my opinion, Cottrell was far too conservative last year, sitting back in coverage instead of attacking the line of scrimmage on every down.  That being said, you won’t find many defenses in the NFL with as much talent as this one – even Ted Cottrell can’t turn this defense into anything but an elite level stop unit.
 
Defensive tackle Jamal Williams is one of the dozen Chargers that had surgery in the offseason, and he’s 32 years old, an eleven year veteran.  That being said, Williams remains the premier run stuffer at his position in the AFC; a one man wrecking crew who requires constant double teams.  Defensive ends Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo are both strong pass rushers, and the depth behind them is excellent.
 
The Chargers rank first in the NFL with 149 sacks over the past three seasons.  Much of the credit must go to their linebacking corps. Outside linebacker Shawne Merriman leads the NFL with 39.5 sacks over the last three years.  On the other side, Shawn Phillips has 27 sacks during that three year span, giving the Chargers a pair of absolute monsters at LB.  12 year veteran Derek Smith started 14 games for San Francisco last year, landing here in free agency.  He’ll immediately improve their depth in the middle.
 
As a team, the Chargers led the NFL with 30 interceptions last year.  Cornerback Antonio Cromartie led the NFL with ten interceptions last year, and had three return touchdowns, including a never-to-be-beaten 109 yard missed field goal return touchdown.  On the other side, Quentin Jammer doesn’t have Cromartie’s great hands to pick passes off, but he’s a top notch cover corner.  Safety Clinton Hart is coming off a career year, while Eric Weddle enjoyed a tremendous rookie season.
 
Even the Chargers kicking game is top notch, not always the case on teams with numerous salary cap challenging star players.  Punter Mike Scifres has a 38.6 net punting average over the past four seasons, best in the league during that span.  Scifres also leads the league with 125 punts downed inside the 20 yard line during that span.  Kicker Nate Kaeding is the most accurate kicker in the NFL over the past three seasons, and his 4-4 field goal performance at New England in the playoffs last January squelched any doubts about his ability to kick under pressure.
 
Schedule: The Chargers are being treated like a bonafide Super Bowl contender by the networks this fall, with five nighttime national TV games.  They only face two East Coast trips with 1 PM start time games.  And, one of their ‘road’ games is actually a neutral site affair in London against New Orleans.  And, to top it all off, the Chargers face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL on paper, with both the Colts and Patriots visiting San Diego and only one road game against a team with a winning record from last year (Pittsburgh). 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.0 (-110) NFL Odds - Sunday, August 17 ‘08 8:00p
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots have opposite philosophies when it comes to preseason, and because of this look for the Bucs to come out on top in this contest broadcast nationally on NFL Network Sunday night. The Patriots are now 7-8 against the spread in preseason since 2004, including their opening 16-15 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. Coach Belichick oftentimes holds out his stars in these games for precautionary reason, such as with Tom Brady last week. Brady is expected to play the entire first quarter this time around, but the rest of the contest could be an adventure as none of the three backup quarterbacks distinguished themselves last week. That trio of Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and Kevin OConnell collectively completed just 17 of 33 passes with two interceptions. Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia and starting running back Earnest Graham are both expected to see their first action of the preseason this week, and this game actually means something to the Bucs. After all, it would be a major morale booster if they can beat the Super Bowl favorites in front of their home fans and a national TV spotlight. Finally, somewhat surprisingly, Tampa Bay has flourished as preseason favorites, going 9-3 against the spread in this role the last five years. NFL Preseason Free Pick: Buccaneers -2 (-110)

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2008 Oakland Raiders NFL Football Predictions
Overview: The Raiders have had the worst organization and the worst record in the AFC since their Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay following the 2002 season.  Oakland is 19-61 SU over the last five years, losing at least 11 of their 16 games in every single season.  Al Davis’ front office is dysfunctional, to say the least.  His well publicized differences with head coach Lane Kiffin in the offseason puts Kiffin squarely on the hot seat heading into the 2008 campaign.  Kiffin also has issues with his defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, but Davis refused to let Kiffin name his own coordinator, one main source of their troubles. 
 
Despite Davis opening his checkbook in the offseason, Oakland still has holes all over their roster.  And with big name draft choices at the offensive skill positions, the general public and mass media seem to be viewing the Raiders as an ‘upside’ team, giving bettors excellent potential value going against them as they stumble towards another bottom tier finish.
 
Offense: JaMarcus Russell was the #1 overall draft choice last year.  Then, in typical Al Davis fashion, he didn’t pony up the dough, allowing Russell to hold out for most of the preseason.  That’s the kiss of death for any rookie QB – the learning curve for rookie quarterbacks is especially steep.  As a result, Russell sat on the bench for most of the season, getting only two starts with a 55.9 QB rating.  Russell’s weight was an issue in the offseason, and he showed no signs of improvement in his preseason opener.  Andrew Walter is a solid backup, but the Raiders will sink or swim with their franchise QB this fall, unless Russell gets hurt.
 
Darren McFadden was the best running back in college football over the last two seasons, and the Raiders were thrilled when he dropped down to them with the #4 overall pick.  In my opinion, this pick was about selling tickets, not about improving the team.  Oakland’s running back corps was the best and deepest unit on the offense prior to picking McFadden.  They finished sixth in the NFL in rushing last year.  McFadden was a luxury they simply couldn’t afford, with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush capable of carrying the load themselves.  That being said, running back is still the deepest and most talented unit on the offense, a real area of strength.
 
The Raiders spent big bucks in free agency bringing in Javon Walker from Denver to be their #1 receiver.  Then Walker got beaten and mugged after a night of partying in Vegas, and contemplated retirement in the just days before the start of training camp.  With his history of injuries, Walker is clearly a big question mark coming into the season. 
 
So is the rest of the Raiders receiving corps.  Ronald Curry is an adequate second option, but he’ll never be a star in this league.  Another free agent acquisition, Drew Carter (Carolina) has done little in his NFL career.  Speedster Johnny Lee Higgins had an electrifying punt return touchdown in the Raiders preseason opener, but he’s still got a ways to go to be an impact pass catcher, and he was the goat last night after fumbling a punt return in his own end zone, giving the Titans an easy touchdown.  Tight end Zack Miller, however, is a nice option for Russell in the passing game.
 
Oakland’s offensive line is another area of major concern.  Oakland did show some improvement last year after allowing 72 sacks in 2006 while finishing #29 in the NFL in rushing.  Their new left tackle, Kwame Harris, couldn’t break the starting lineup for lowly San Francisco last year.  Former #2 overall pick Robert Gallery has been mediocre at best during his tenure in Oakland.  Center John Wade started all 16 games for Tampa Bay last year, but the Bucs were quite willing to let him go in free agency.  With new faces in new places, the Raiders OL is still very much a work in progress.
 
Defense: Oakland finished with a #31 ranking against the run last year and, on paper, their front four doesn’t look much better heading into 2008.  Defensive tackle Tommy Kelly signed the biggest contract for any defensive tackle in NFL history, despite his status coming off a torn ACL that cost him the second half of the ’07 campaign.  Kelly has been good, not great, in his four previous seasons.  The Raiders have no other impact players on the defensive front, lacking a dominant pass rusher, as Derrick Burgess’ production has declined over the past two seasons since his breakout campaign in ’06. 
 
Middle linebacker Kirk Morrison played every single defensive snap last year at a pro bowl level, while outside linebacker Thomas Howard wasn’t far behind.  The Raiders have decent depth here; good depth if Ed Hartwell can ever stay healthy for a full season.
 
The Raiders secondary is an area of strength after the big free agent signing of strong safety Gibril Wilson (New York Giants) and the trade for former Falcons cornerback DeAngelo Hall.  Hall forms a stellar duo with Nnamdi Asomugha, giving the Raiders a pair of top notch cover corners.  Wilson teams up with former first rounder Michael Huff, an emerging talent in his third year as a pro.  If the Raiders find some kind of a pass rush, this secondary has the potential to be excellent.
 
Schedule: Somehow, some way, the NFL always finds a way to stick it to their longtime nemesis, Al Davis.  This year, it’s the Raiders  road schedule, which sends them East for 1 PM EST start time games on six different occasions, by far the most 1 PM start time games for any West Coast team.  And, of course, West Coast teams travelling East create the biggest hidden factor in strength of schedule issues – those 10 AM Pacific Time starts are extremely difficult for West Coast teams to adjust to. 
 
That being said, Oakland faces a fairly manageable slate in terms of their overall strength of opposition, playing only four games against playoff teams from last year.  Once again, however, the league has stuck it to the Raiders – three of those four come in December, giving them ample opportunity to turn a decent start into a lousy finish.

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2008 Denver Broncos NFL Football Predictions
Overview: The Broncos streak of five consecutive winning seasons came to a screeching halt in 2007, as Denver suffered their first losing record since 1999.  They suffered six losses by two touchdowns or more, including a particularly ugly 41-3 home loss to San Diego and a 44-7 road loss at Detroit.  In the offseason, the Broncos shook up their staff in a big way, bringing in a new GM and new coordinators on both sides of the football.
 
Mike Shanahan is the dean of NFL head coaching, now in his 14th season with the Broncos.  Owner Pat Bowlen seems to consider Shanahan his ‘coach-for-life’, so there’s less pressure for an immediate turnaround in Denver as there probably is in other places around the league.  Still, with only one playoff win since John Elway retired, the pressure (and criticism) for Shanahan is beginning to mount.
 
Offense: New offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is also the offensive line coach, a rare double duty.  Then again, Shanahan still calls the offensive plays.  The Broncos new face of the franchise is quarterback Jay Cutler.  Cutler finished among the Top 10 quarterbacks in passing yards (more than 3400) and yards per attempt (7.5) last year, his first full season as the starter.  Cutler had a decent 20-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio despite losing 30 pounds over the course of the season due to undiagnosed (at the time) diabetes.  In the offseason, Cutler finally got medical treatment for his illness, which should leave him much stronger and fresher down the stretch in 2008.
 
Travis Henry seemed like a perfect fit for the Broncos offense when they signed him to a fat free agent deal prior to the 2007 season, but injuries and off-the-field issues limited his productivity.  He was cut following a no-show at mini-camp this spring, leaving Selmon Young, free agent acquisition Michael Pittman (Tampa Bay) and fifth round rookie Ryan Torain (Arizona State) to share carries this fall.  Fullbacks Cecil Sapp and Mike Bell will get their share of carries as well.  This is a franchise that has enjoyed tremendous success finding quality backs at the bottom of their depth chart, so despite their lack of a single #1 back, the Broncos should be able to run the football effectively.
 
Wide receiver Brandon Marshall enjoyed a breakout season in 2007, but his offseason was marred by legal troubles and a mysterious arm injury.  He’ll miss three games due to an NFL mandated suspension, but once he’s back on the field, he’s the Broncos most dangerous weapon in the passing game.  Denver spent big in free agency at receiver, bringing in Darrell Jackson (San Francisco), Keary Colbert (Carolina) and Sammy Parker (Kansas City) to compete for playing time with the returning Brandon Stokely and second round draft choice Eddie Royal (Virginia Tech).  Tight ends Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are also a big part of the passing game.
 
For many years, the Broncos offensive line was an area of strength.  That no longer appears to be the case.  Center Tom Nalen and left guard Ben Hamilton are both trying to return to full strength after finishing last season on injured reserve.  Star left tackle Matt Lepsis retired, leaving big shoes to fill for their top draft choice Ryan Clady (Boise State).  Just about the only sure thing on the offensive line is steady, dependable right guard Montrae Holland.
 
Defense: New defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has plenty of experience in this role, having previously been a coordinator for the Bears, Browns and Packers.  He was the secondary coach here last year, so he’s quite familiar with the mediocre personnel that Denver has on this side of the football.  Slowik is the Broncos third defensive coordinator in the last three years.  The Broncos defense certainly wasn’t very good in 2007, ranked 28th in the NFL in points allowed and 30th against the run.
 
The Broncos defensive line has been the source of continual troubles over the last few years.  After spending numerous draft choices and big bucks in free agency on the DL over the past few seasons, Slowik is hoping that this year, the unit finally lives up to expectations.  Denver has some decent playmakers at defensive end, with Elvis Dumervil, John Engleberger.  They’ll be joined by Ebenezer Ekuban coming off a lost season following a torn ACL.  Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss were first and second round picks, but it’s fourth rounder Marcus Thomas with the inside track as the starter.  They also picked up another former first rounder DeWayne Robertson from the Jets in the offseason, who never lived up to expectations in New York.  At a minimum, the depth here is excellent.  In a best case scenario, this line could be a top notch unit.
 
While the line looks better, the linebacking corps still has some major concerns heading into preseason.  DJ Williams finished second in the NFL in tackles last year, but he’s switching back to the outside after a season manning the middle.  The Broncos hope that free agent Boss Bailey (Detroit) can stay healthier here than he did in his injury-plagued tenure with the Lions, but he’s already missed time in training camp with a bad ankle.  Another free agent, Niko Koutouvides (Seattle) is expected to start, despite spending five years in a reserve role with the Seahawks.  Veterans Nate Webster and Jamie Winborn provide depth.
 
Cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly remain a solid tandem, despite their advancing age.  Dominique Foxworth and Karl Paymah give them quality depth here as well.  But even with the free agent addition of Marlon McCree (San Diego), questions persist about the depth and talent level at both safety positions.
 
Four of the Broncos seven wins last year came on Jason Elam field goals.  He left in free agency, leaving Denver with training camp battles at both kicker and punter.  Clearly, the kicking game could be a real problem area.
 
Schedule: The Broncos have a very rough slate early in the season.  Their first four home games come against the Chargers, Saints, Bucs and Jaguars, all expected to be serious playoff contenders; and all of whom view their respective games at Invesco Field as road games they can win.  Denver also has a rough midseason scheduling stretch, playing only one home game between October 12th and November 23rd.   AFC West teams face the AFC East and NFC South out of division in 2008, and the Broncos extra two games come against the Jags and Browns.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An Expert NFL Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting football this season and need Winning NFL Picks, be sure to Buy Ted’s NFL Picks and make this season a winning one guaranteed!

2008 Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Predictions
Overview - Kansas City certainly isn’t a ‘sexy’ team for bettors heading into the 2008 season.  Unlike their division mates in Oakland, the Chiefs haven’t been drafting big name offensive players that fans are familiar with from their college exploits.  KC closed out their miserable 2007 campaign by dropping their last nine games.  Then, they spent the offseason jettisoning veteran after veteran, entering full-blown rebuilding mode for 2008.  The Chiefs had (have) ample salary cap space, but they’ve chosen not to use it – there will be no quick fixes here.
 
Part of many bettors distaste for Kansas City stems from their coaching staff.  Head coach Herm Edwards is known for being one of the most conservative coaches in the league.  He’s surrounded himself with a staff that mirrors his approach.  New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was one of the most conservative head coaches in college football during his just concluded tenure with Georgia Tech.  #2 overall draft choice WR Calvin Johnson was a veritable non-factor in Gailey’s offense.  Kansas City’s gameplan for 2008 will be all about defense and running the football.
 
Offense - Quarterback Brodie Croyle didn’t win in college at Alabama.  He didn’t win last year after his mid-season insertion into the starting lineup.  And Croyle has shown limited ability to inspire his teammates around him as a powerful leader.  In six starts and three games where he came off the bench in ’07, Croyle had only one game in which he threw for even 200 yards.  For the season, he managed just six touchdown passes in 224 pass attempts.
 
There’s no certainly that Croyle will be the quarterback of the future in KC – he’s no surefire, can’t miss prospect.  If he struggles again in 2008, we can expect the Chiefs to go in another direction.  Backup Tyler Thigpen, a second year pro from Coastal Carolina could get a late season look if (when?) the Chiefs officially give up on their season at some point in November or December.
 
Running back Larry Johnson is once again expected to be the workhorse of the offense.  Johnson ran for 3539 yards in ’05 and ’06, but was off to a terrible start last year before breaking his foot midway through the season and missing the remainder of the campaign.  Backup Kolby Smith performed well in his absence, and third round rookie Jamaal Charles (Texas) was added in the offseason to give the Chiefs solid depth.
 
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe enjoyed a truly stellar rookie season, catching 70 passes for 995 yards and five touchdowns, the best showing of any rookie receiver in the league.  Tight end Tony Gonzalez has lost a step at 32, but he remains one of the premier pass catchers at his position in the league.  Behind those two, however, the Chiefs have no proven weapons at all.  Fourth round draft choice Will Franklin (Missouri) and free agent acquisition Devard Darling (Baltimore) are expected to compete for the other starting wide receiver position.
 
For most of this decade, the Chiefs sported one of the premier offensive lines in all of football.  Four of their five starters played together for four straight years, including potential Hall of Famers Willie Roaf and Will Shields.  But following the retirement of those two stud linemen, the Chiefs used six different starting offensive line combinations last year.
 
The line continues to be one of the most unsettled units on the roster heading into 2008.  The only ‘sure thing’ is left guard Brian Waters.  Rookie Brandon Flowers (first round, Virginia) is the projected starting left tackle despite the fact that he started only two games at that position in college.  Damian McIntosh is switching positions from left tackle to right tackle.  Right guard Adrian Jones was cut by the Jets; now he’s projected to start in KC.  Rudy Niswanger was a backup center last year; this year he’s projected to be the starter.  The line’s development as a unit is paramount to any success that KC fans and backers will enjoy this Fall.
 
Defense - Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham is a conservative guy, just like his head coach.  Cunningham has been in the league for 28 years, including earlier stints as the Chiefs defensive coordinator and as their head coach.  Cunningham’s defense enjoyed some real success last year.  They were first in the NFL in third down conversions allowed, and third in the league in red zone defense, allowing only 16 touchdowns in 43 red zone tries from their opponents.
 
The Chiefs traded their sack meister, Jared Allen, to Minnesota in the offseason, but there’s still plenty of quality young talent on the defensive line.  First round draft choice Glenn Dorsey (LSU) has the potential to be an impact player from day one at defensive tackle, a premier level disrupter at the line of scrimmage.  Turk McBride, Tank Tyler and Tamba Hali each have two years of NFL experience or less, but each guy was a first day draft choice with the potential to excel.
 
The Chiefs linebacking corps is the only unit on the team to return every starter from last year.  While Derrick Johnson has never lived up to the ‘superstar’ status surrounding him after college, he’s certainly better than average.  Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris return as well.  Free agent acquisition Demorrio Williams started all 16 games with the Falcons last year, shoring up this unit’s depth.
 
Following the departure of Ty Law, rookie cornerback Brandon Flowers (second round, Virginia Tech) is expected to start immediately.  Like every rookie cornerback, he can be expected to have his share of struggles early on.  Fifth round draft choice Brandon Carr (Grand Valley State) could press eleven year veteran Patrick Surtain for playing time at the other corner spot.  KC has virtually no quality depth at this position. Safeties Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page showed signs of promise last year, but neither is a proven veteran.
 
Schedule - The Chiefs will be kept well hidden from the general public, without a single national TV game on their schedule.  That being said, KC actually has a chance to get off to a decent start, with a very manageable first half slate following their season opener at New England, making it somewhat difficult to bet this team Under their season win total of six.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An Expert NFL Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting football this season and need Winning NFL Picks, be sure to Buy Ted’s NFL Picks and make this season a winning one guaranteed!

2008 Minnesota Vikings NFL Football Predictions
Overview: The Vikings were in position to earn a playoff berth last December after reeling off five straight wins following a 3-6 start, but they came up short down the stretch, losing their final two games of the season.  Still, their 8-8 finish was a two win improvement over the previous year.  That being said, six of their eight victories came against bottom feeders with losing records.
 
Owner Zigy Wilf opened his checkbook in the offseason, as Minnesota was a major player in free agency.  Wilf has let it be known to head coach Brad Childress (and anyone else that was willing to listen) that a Super Bowl appearance is the ultimate goal… a Super Bowl appearance in the not-to-distant future.
 
The Vikings do two things as well or better than any other team in football – they run, and stop the run.  Last year, they finished with the #1 rushing offense and the #1 rushing defense in the 32 team league.  There was a time in the NFL where those two things alone would make Minnesota an elite level teams.  But times have changed in the NFL – the ability to pass and stop the pass are mandatory for success.  Last year, the Vikings came up very short in both departments, finishing with the worst pass defense in the NFL and the #28 pass offense.
 
Offense: If Tarvaris Jackson really is ‘the next Donovan McNabb’, as Brad Childress (former Eagles offensive coordinator) described him following Minnesota’s reach up in the draft to nab him (pun intended), he’ll need to show real signs of progress in his third year as a pro.  Jackson is 8-4 as a starter, but he’s struggled to stay healthy and his 70.8 quarterback rating last year was certainly not in the upper echelon of starting NFL QB’s.  If Jackson can step up in 2008, Wilf may accomplish his Super Bowl dreams earlier than expected.  However, if Jackson falters or gets hurt, 37 year old Gus Frerotte will be forced into action and he’s no longer a reasonable option at this stage of his career.
 
Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has made it very clear that he wants Jackson to take more shots down the field this year, giving the Vikings a big play element to their passing game.  Minnesota signed speedy free agent wide receiver Bernard Berrian to stretch opposing defenses, something he did extremely well during his tenure with the Bears.  Berrian will join Sidney Rice in the starting lineup, a second rounder in 2007, coming off a promising rookie season.  Aundae Allison showed limited flashes of big play ability in his rookie season, but he’s fighting for playing time behind veterans Bobby Wade and Rodney Ferguson.
 
Adrian Peterson was the most exciting offensive rookie in football last Fall, rushing for more than 1300 yards; 5.6 yards per carry.  In order to keep him fresh, Chester Taylor will get his fair share of carries as well.  Taylor ran for more than 800 yards last year; 5.4 yards per carry, pretty darn good numbers for a backup.
 
The success of both running backs can be placed squarely on the shoulders of a dominant offensive line.  Center Matt Birk is a pro bowler.  Guard Steve Hutchinson, the big free agent signee last year, is one of the best at his position in the NFL.  Left tackle Bryant McKinnie faces a short NFL mandated suspension for his off-field activities at some point this season, but he, too, is a dominant blocker.  Guard Anthony Herrera has improved by leaps and bounds, playing alongside this level of talent.  Four of the Vikings five offensive line starters played every game together last year, and all five return for 2008, giving Minnesota great continuity on this crucial unit.
 
Defense: The Vikings finished dead last in the NFL in pass defense in 2007, but at least some of that had to do with the fact that teams simply gave up on trying to run the football against their #1 ranked run defense.  That run defense starts with tackles Kevin and Pat Williams (no relation) who both earned trips to Honolulu last February as the premier duo at their position in the NFL.  In the offseason, Minnesota traded away much of their draft to Kansas City, picking up, arguably, the best pass rusher in the league as well.  Jared Allen led the NFL in sacks last year, despite missing two games.  His presence alone should help dramatically improve Minnesota’s numbers against the pass.
 
The Vikings linebacking corps is also an above average unit.  EJ Henderson made the pro bowl last year in the middle.  Chad Greenway was expected to be an impact first round draft choice in ’06, but he tore his ACL in training camp.  Less than 100% last year in his first season back from the injury, Greenway still finished second on the team in tackles.  Ben Leber isn’t as flashy as his linebacker-mates, but he’s as technically sound as it gets.  Minnesota has virtually no quality depth behind this trio, so injuries here could be particularly problematic.
 
The Vikings invested big free agent dollars acquiring versatile safety Madieu Williams from Cincinnati to shore up their secondary in the offseason, but Williams is suffering from a nerve problem in his neck that is expected to keep him sidelined for at least the next six weeks.  Another free agent addition, Michael Boulware (Houston) should be the beneficiary of Williams missed playing time, although second round rookie Tyrell Johnson (Arkansas State) could factor into the mix.  Strong safety Darren Sharper made the pro bowl last year, but he’s 33 years old.  Cornerbacks Antonie Winfield and Cedric Griffin are a solid, if unspectacular tandem, but the unit as a whole should improve by leaps and bounds as long as Allen can provide the pass rush that was sorely lacking in 2007.
 
Schedule: According to the ‘official’ numbers, Minnesota plays one of the toughest schedules in the NFL in 2008, based on last year’s results.  However, my numbers, based on the 2008 Over/Under win totals posted all over Vegas, show the Vikings playing a ‘middle of the pack’ opposing slate.  They do have a tough stretch in November and December, playing four out of five on the road.  And, with road games at Green Bay, Tennessee and New Orleans along with a home game against the Colts in the first five weeks, the Vikings will be hard pressed to get off to a great start, giving us enormous potential value with this squad in midseason.