Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens
NHL Pick: Montreal Canadiens +125 odds (February 7th 2012)

I won with the Canadiens in their last game, a 3-0 victory over Winnipeg on Sunday. They’re “stepping up in class” here, so are now listed as underdogs. As I feel they’ve got an excellent shot at another victory, I believe that’s providing us with solid value.

The Canadiens should be extremely motivated. That’s because they are playing with “triple revenge,” having lost all three to the Penguins so far this season. Note that each of the last two meetings were decided by a single goal.

Still without Crosby, the Pens have started to finally cool off a little lately. They lost 5-2 last time out and have now dropped two of their last three. Note that they’re only 2-8 (-8.6) the last 10 times that they were off a loss of two or more goals.

The Pens are wrapping up a 4-game road trip and have a few days off after this. They could easily be looking forward to getting home. On the other hand, the Canadiens are finishing up a 3-game homestand. Having split the first two games, they’d love to close things out with a win here.

I expect the Canadiens to be a little more “hungry” and feel that gives them a strong shot at the “upset.” Looking for a play with a decent underdog return on Tuesday? Consider Montreal. Get more NHL picks from Ben Burns at Touthouse.com

Winnipeg vs. Carolina
NHL Hockey Pick: Under 5.5 (January 23rd 2012)
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These teams have met three times already this season. Both meetings at Winnipeg were high-scoring. They finished with scores of 5-3 and 4-2. However, the game here at Raleigh was lower-scoring. It finished with a score of 3-1. With tonight’s game also being played at Raleigh and given the way the Canes have played recently, I won’t be surprised if this was is also relatively low-scoring. Carolina checks in off a 2-1 loss, at Long Island. Prior to that, in their most recent home game, the Canes beat Washington by a score of 3-0. The Canes’ previous two games both also resulted in 2-1 losses. That brings the ‘under’ to 4-0 their last four games. In fact, they’ve now allowed two or fewer goals in seven straight games. The Jets are off a 4-3 home loss last time out. However, nine of their previous 12 games had fallen below the total. Perhaps more importantly, the Jets have shown a tendency to follow up a poor defensive effort with a better one. That’s led to the “under” going a lucrative 13-5, after they allowed four or more goals in their previous game. With the “under” also at 14-6-1 when the Jets faced a team with a losing record, consider a play on the UNDER 5.5 goals. Get more NHL hockey picks on January 23rd 2012 from Ben Burns at Touthouse.com.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Edmonton Oilers
NHL Pick: Edmonton Oilers -149 odds (December 2nd 2011)
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We lost with Columbus last night no thanks to Calgary blowing a late two-goal lead and eventually losing in a shootout. The Blue Jackets are actually playing pretty well right now as they are 4-2-1 over their last seven games but they still have only two wins on the season on the road and you have to go back all the way to January of last season for the last time they won consecutive road games. Overall, Columbus is 1-10 in its last 11 games following a win.

Edmonton is hardly playing good right now but this could be the perfect opponent to get things rolling again. The Oilers opened November with a road win over the Kings to improve to 8-2-2 to begin the season but they are just 4-8-1 since then however they are still within striking distance of the playoff picture even though it is still early. They have struggled on the road but at home Edmonton is 7-3-2 and this is just the fifth home games over its last 15 games so that certainly explains some of the issues.

Columbus was shutout in the power play once again last night and it is now at 4.3 percent over its last five games. Edmonton possesses one of the better penalty kills in the league and it has an 85.2 percent penalty kill at home while the Blue Jackets 11.3 percent power play percentage on the road is fifth worst in the NHL. The Oilers have gotten some strong efforts from goalie Nikolai Khabibulin after a rough couple games in November and overall his 1.88 GAA is fourth best in the league.

The Blue Jackets have not fared well after a high scoring affair as they are 9-40 in their last 49 road games coming off a game where both teams scored three or more goals while going 1-5 in their last six games playing with no rest. Edmonton meanwhile is 43-27 in its last 70 games following a one goal divisional loss. The home team has won the last five meetings in this series and based on recent results, we will see that streak continue with a comfortable Oilers victory on Friday. 3* (10) Edmonton Oilers -Matt Fargo

New York Islanders vs. Buffalo Sabres
NHL Pick: Buffalo Sabres (November 29th 2011)
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This may seem like a big number to be laying with a team that is riddled with injuries but the Sabres are getting healthier and their laundry list of injuries is decreasing. Buffalo is coming off a win over Washington Saturday which was the final straw for Capitals general manager George McPhee as he fired coach Bruce Boudreau on Monday. The victory snapped a three-game winless streak for the Sabres and they can take over first place in the Northeast with a win tonight.

The Islanders are coming off a win as well as they defeated the Devils on Saturday. The impressive part was that it came on the road which was their first road win of the season after starting 0-5-2 away from home. New York still has the fewest points in the Eastern Conference with 16 and back-to-back wins have been few and far between of late as it is 0-3 in its last three games following a win, losing those games by a combined score of 16-3. The Islanders are a putrid 29-92 in their last 121 road games.

One key injury remains for Buffalo and that is goalie Ryan Miller who looks to start practicing again following a concussion. There is no timetable for his return but backup goalie Jhonas Enroth has been solid, going 8-3-1 with a 2.29 GAA and a .925 save percentage. He made 26 saves on 27 shots against the Capitals on Saturday. The Islanders are averaging just 1.9 gpg on the season including 1.8 gpg on the road and that former average is worst in the league as is their 6.9 percent on shots.

While scoring has been an issue for New York, so hasn’t the defense. The Islanders have allowed four goals or more in eight of their last 10 games after allowing that many only two times in their first 11 games. That is a big issue against Buffalo that is averaging 33.7 shots per game at home this season. While the Islanders have been bad following a win, they have been worse following games played away from home as they are 0-7 this season in their seven games following a road game. 3* (52) Buffalo Sabres -Matt Fargo

Minnesota Wild vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
NHL Pick: Minnesota Wild -122 (November 15th 2011)
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Minnesota is 6-2 over its last eight games including a 3-2 record on the road and a lot of this success can be attributed to its penalty kill. The Wild have stopped 32 of their last 35 power play attempts for a .914 save percentage. This includes a perfect 13-13 in those three road wins. Continuing that success tonight should not be a problem as Columbus has just three power play goals in its last seven games, going 3-37 for a .111 success rate which is barely ahead of its season percentage of 10.8 percent, thirds to last in the NHL.

The Blue Jackets are dead last in the NHL with just seven points as they have scored 36 goals, which is fourth fewest in the league while their 60 goals allowed are tied for third most. Their 3.67 GAA is worst in the league. Goalie Steve Mason has made all but one start this season and is accountable for most of the damage. In the first meeting against Minnesota this season, he allowed four goals on just 23 shots and was pulled after the second period. He is coming off his best effort in his last start but that means little.

While Minnesota’s penalty kill has been outstanding, the Blue Jackets have had their struggles against the power play, stopping just 73.7 percent of the man-down shots which is second worst in the NHL. The Wild have not been consistent with their power play but this could be the perfect time for a breakout. Minnesota begins a six-game homestand on Thursday and coming away with a win here and an overall winning road trip is the goal. Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite.

This is just the second game in five days for Columbus and while the time off may be considered a positive, it doe not help the situation here as we play against home underdogs against the money line that have lost 12 or more of their last 15 games and playing only their 2nd game in five days. This situation is 26-4 (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Speaking of home underdogs, the Blue Jackets are 7-29 in their last 36 games as a home underdog. 3* (7) Minnesota Wild -Matt Fargo

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. St. Louis Blues
NHL Pick: St. Louis Blues -152 odds (November 10th 2011)
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The Blues responded to the coaching change with a dominant effort, knocking off one of the best teams (Chicago) in the league in convincing fashion. Off that 3-0 shutout and facing a Toronto team which is suddenly really struggling, I feel that the Blues have a solid shot at another victory. After a great start to the season, the Leafs have recently fallen on hard times. They’ve lost their last two games by a combined score of 12-1. Often a “fresh start” with a new coach can be just what the doctor ordered for a team. Although it should be noted that the Blues have been outstanding at home, regardless of who was behind the bench. Indeed, they’ve won four of five games here. They’ve outscored opponents by an average score of 3.2 to 2.0 here, outshooting them by a 32.4 to 24.2 margin. The lone loss here came on opening night and they’ve since won all four games. The Blues won 4-0 the last time they hosted the Leafs and are 8-3 the last 11 series meetings overall. All things considered, the price seems reasonable. Consider St. Louis

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders
NHL Pick: New York Islanders +115 (October 25th 2011)
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I feel the home underdog is offering us solid value in this one. Let’s take a closer look. This is the first game of a “home and home series.” As a result, I expect the Isles to be highly motivated to “hold serve” in their own building. Of course, off back to back road losses, they should be happy just to get back home at all – not to mention “hungry” to snap their skid. Note that the Isles are 3-1 at home, including 3-0 their last three here. They won those games by a combined score of 11-4. In their four games here overall, the Isles are allowing an average of only 1.5 goals. While the Isles should be motivated to get back in the win column, off three straight victories, the Penguins may potentially be a little “complacent” here. They’re a costly 30-26 (-11.8) vs. the moneyline the past 2+ seasons, when off a victory by two or goals. The Isles, 15-13 (+5.1) the past 2+ seasons when playing with two day’s rest in between games, have won two of the last three meetings with the Pens here at Long Island – and three of the last five here. They were underdogs in all five of those games. I feel they’ve got a solid shot at scoring another “upset” here. Consider New York. Get more NHL picks from Ben Burns at Touthouse.com

Boston Bruins vs. Carolina Hurricanes
NHL Hockey Pick: Carolina Hurricanes +155 odds (October 18th 2011)
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5* graded play on Carolina as they take on Boston in NHL action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-32 for 61.4% winners and has made 28.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against home teams against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and is a team winning between 30% to 40% of their games and playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season. Although still early in the season all the criteria for this play is matched by the two teams. Boston has not done well in this situation noting they are 4-8 against the money line (-11.2 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a 40% to 49 win percentage over the last two seasons. Take Carolina. Ryan is off to a 4-1 start to the NHL season + has a fantastic opportunity for you to play a DOG that his research shows will win the game. Featured are TWO markable systems and game situations with one posting an eye-popping 438-94 record making a whopping 389 units per one in unit wagered since 1996.

Minnesota Wild vs. Edmonton Oilers
Pick: Minnesota Wild -160 odds (October 13th 2011)
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We played against Minnesota on Tuesday and won as the Wild lost in a shootout against Ottawa in the Sens home opener. Minnesota heads back home for Thursday’s game against Edmonton as it looks to stay undefeated at Xcel Energy Center after defeating Columbus to start the season. The Wild should be ready tonight as they have a bad taste leftover from that Ottawa game as they blew a two-goal lead in the third period as the normally tough and disciplined defense fell apart late.

Edmonton got off to a great start with a shootout win over Pittsburgh at home. A win like that can build confidence but it has been four days since then and momentum could already be lost because of the extended time off. This is the first road game of the season for the Oilers after finishing with the worst road record in the league a year ago to go along with the league’s worst home record. Their 62 points were the worst in the NHL and there isn’t much hope for this young, rebuilding team.

“We definitely expect to be better,” said the Oilers’ Shawn Horcoff. “At the same time, though, we are still really young. I think the rookies that came in last year did well, in Ebs [Jordan Eberle] and Hallsy. Sure, we expect them to grow and become better players, but at the same time they’re still only 19 and 20 years old. It’s going to take a little bit of time.” Minnesota has absolutely owned this series as it has won the last six meetings in this series as well as 16 straight games at home against the Oilers.

Goaltending is all about confidence and Wild goalie Niklas Backstrom should have plenty of it entering this game. He 18-2-1 with a 1.74 GAA, a .935 save percentage and four shutouts in career 23 starts against Edmonton and those number are even better on his home ice as he is 14-0-0 with a 1.21 GAA and .954 save percentage. Center Pierre-Marc Bouchard returns to the lineup for Minnesota after serving his two-game suspension. 3* (66) Minnesota Wild. Get more NHL hockey picks from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Boston Bruins
Pick: Over 5 goals -110 odds (June 6th 2011)
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I’m now 6-0 in the NBA/NHL Finals, including a win with the “under 5.5″ in Game 1 of this series, a 1-0 Vancouver victory. At the time, I mentioned that we may not see any more O/U lines of 5.5 for some time. Sure enough, the line dipped to five for Game 2 (a ‘push’) and remains at five for tonight’s Game 3. With the venue shifting to Boston, I feel we may see some more goals tonight. While I did successfully play on the “under” in the Bruins most recent game here, (another 1-0 game) the “over” remains a healthy 5-2 in games played here, dating back to late April. Note that the ‘over’ is also a profitable 5-1-1 in the Canucks’ last seven games away from Vancouver. For the season, Boston home games are averaging 5.2 goals per game while Vancouver road games are averaging 5.5. With the Game 2 “push,” the “over” is now 5-2-2 the last nine times that the Bruins were trailing in a playoff series. During that stretch, the Canucks saw the “over” go 10-6-6 when leading in a playoff series, including 8-4-2 the last 14. Consider the Over.