Betting the 2008 Stanley Cup Final
Courtesy of LT Profits - A Professional Sports Handicapping Service at Touthouse.com
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Thanks to the Detroit Reds Wings’ 4-1 victory over the Dallas Stars on Monday, the NHL Stanley Cup Finals are now set, as the Wings will be facing the Pittsburgh Penguins.

This is one of the more highly anticipated matchups of recent years, especially since Detroit and Pittsburgh did not meet during the regular season. These clubs have met just twice since Sidney Crosby entered the league, and the Red Wings won on both occasions. Detroit shut out Crosby & Co. 2-0 in Pittsburgh last season after winning 3-1 back at home two seasons ago.

Now many experts predicted that these teams would meet in the Finals, and getting a popular matchup like this has actually been rare over the years. This is because the early rounds of the NHL Playoffs have produced more upsets proportionally than any of the other major North American sports. That said however, once we have gotten to the Finals, they have actually been very true to form regardless of the participants. In fact, the finalist with the higher seed has won the Stanley Cup in all seven playoff seasons this decade so far (remember the 2004-05 season was wiped out by the players’ strike), which bodes quite well for the Red Wings this year.

In fact, if you just blindly played the higher seed in every game of the finals since the 2000-01 season, you would have gone 24-14, 63.2 percent, +5.70 units. Now keep in mind we said play the higher seed every game, which is not the same thing as playing the favorite in every contest. If we had taken the latter approach, the record would be 25-13, 65.8 percent, but for only +2.46 units, less than half the amount of continuously betting the higher seed.

Now the dominance of the better teams has been even more evident in the two finals since the strike, the “New NHL” Era. Over the last two playoff season, favorites have gone 10-2 for +5.71 units, while higher seeds are 8-4, +3.55.

Upsets simply do not happen that often in the Stanley Cup Finals, but on the rare occasions that they do, the better teams have historically been a great bet to bounce back next game. Since 2001, if a higher seed is coming off of a loss, it is 11-3 next game for an impressive +9.55 units, while all favorites off of a loss have gone 12-2 for an identical +9.55.

Shifting our focus to totals, the Under is 20-14-4, 58.8 percent since 2001, with a low combined average score of just 4.50 goals per game. Now, the goal of the “New NHL” was to open up the game and increase scoring, but over the last two years, that Under percentage has actually risen to 60.0 percent at 6-4-2. A closer look however reveals that scoring is indeed up, with an average combined score of 5.17 goals per contest, and that the success of the Unders is entirely due to the totals being set higher.

So what do we do in the Stanley Cup Finals this season? Well, if history repeats, it would be safe to play the Red Wings every game, increasing our bets to Best Bet levels if they are coming off a loss. Furthermore, we would use the “New” average of 5.17 as our total gauge, playing the Overs at 5 and the Unders at 5.5.

Free 2008 NHL Playoffs Picks: Detroit Red Wings (-135)
Mon May 19 ‘08 8:05p - Click Here for NHL Odds
The Dallas Stars deserve a ton of credit for extending this series to six games after being down 3-0 in games, but look for the Detroit Red Wings to finally close them out on the road tonight.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]We simply feel that the Wings committed the cardinal sin of just assuming they would wrap up the series at home in Game 5 after losing Game 4 here in Big D, and not surprisingly, they paid the price for it. However, Detroit should return to business as usual tonight, and remember that this is still the team that had the best record in the NHL this season, and they closed out each of the first two rounds of the playoffs on the road. Also, that Game 4 loss notwithstanding, the Wings have still lost just four of their last 19 trips to Dallas.

The Stars won the last two games the way they have been winning games all season, behind tight checking, great defense and the goaltending of Marty Turco. However, the Wings have loads of firepower and playoff experience, and we look for them to solve that Dallas defense here just like they did in Game 3 in this building, when they won 5-2. That marked the second time in the first three games of this series that Detroit scored at least four goals. A repeat performance would mean lights out for Dallas, as the Stars are not equipped to come from behind, averaging just 2.80 goals per game this year.

Finally, a little history lesson may be in order right now. There have been 153 NHL Playoff series where a club has gone up 3-0. Only 13 of the trailing teams have come back to force a Game 6, and only five have gone on to win this game.

NHL Free Pick: Red Wings -135

Bob’s 17-5 2008 NHL Playoff Picks Run
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Prez’ 14-4 2008 NHL Playoff Picks Run
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Prez has won 7 of his last 8 NHL days, 10 of his last 12 and is on 14-4 NHL Run. He is up huge in the NHL Playoffs and has made his customers NHL Profit the entire season. Plus there is no-one and we mean no-one hotter than him on the planet, as Prez has won 12 of his last 13 days of betting and 17 of his last 21. The man is on an INSANE 30-5 betting run and has been red hot for over a month..
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Free NHL Pick: San Jose Sharks (120)
Sun May 4 ‘08 9:05p - Click Here for NHL Odds
Things certainly looked bleak for the San Jose Sharks when they fell behind 3-0 in this series with the Dallas Stars, but they have rallied to win the last two games and a win at Dallas tonight would mean they would be home for Game 7.

Then again, playing at home has not been the best thing in this head-to-head series, as the road teams are 15-4 in the last 19 encounters! The Sharks would like to see that continue tonight, and we do not see why they can’t extend this series, particularly since they were our pick to win the Stanley Cup before these playoffs started. The Sharks have been the best road team in the NHL all season at an amazing 29-12-5, and we now look for them to come up big in their most important road game of all.

The Stars may be feeling the noose tightening around their necks here, especially after scoring a grand total of three goals in the last two potential close-out games. In fact, considering that two of their three wins in this series have come in overtime, Dallas has actually scored two goals or less in regulation in four of the first five games.

Finally, besides the success of the road teams in this series, underdogs are also 14-6 in the last 20 match-ups, so look for the Sharks to continue that at this dog price.

NHL Free Pick: Sharks +120 - Click Here to Buy LT Profits Expert NHL Picks

Free NHL Pick: Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche
May 1, 2008 10:00PM - Click Here for Current NHL Odds
I’m coming off a solid 4-2 day overall but it could have easily been better (5-1) if not for a tough beat on the ice. My play was on the Flyers and Canadiens to finish ‘under’ the total. The teams were scoreless after one period and the score was just 1-0 heading into the third. A wild third period saw the teams each score two goals, bringing the score to 3-2. It still seemed like the game might sneak below the total, before the Flyers added an empty net goal with less than two seconds remaining.

That’s ancient history though and this is an entirely different series. The Wings have won the first three games and each has finished above the number. However, it’s rare to see four straight games in an NHL playoff series finish above the total and I don’t expect it to happen here. Note that the Avs have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6-1 the past three seasons (5-2-1 this year) after having lost three or more consecutive games. During the same stretch, the Wings have seen the ‘under’ go 41-29-11 after having won three or more consecutive games.

The Avs, who have seen the ‘under’ go 23-11-7 against teams with a winning record this season, saw their “elimination game” vs. Minnesota in the first round produce just three goals, with a final score of 2-1. The Wings, who have seen the ‘under’ go 14-9-7 the last 30 times they were coming off three or more consecutive games which finished above the number, also saw their opening round elimination game (vs Nashville) produce three goals, finishing with a score of 3-0. Regardless of whether or not this proves to be the final game of the series, I expect it to prove to be the one with the lowest final combined score.

Ben Burns cashed another “Main Event” yesterday, as the Wizards knocked off the Cavaliers outright. He had to settle for the split though, when the Celtics and Hawks slipped above the number. All the same, he’s still an outstanding 8-3 (73%) his last 11 NBA selections and he’s beginning May with a BIG PLAY. Be there! 
 
Selection Courtesy of Ben Burns - Click Here to Buy Ben Burn’s Expert NHL Picks

Pittsburgh Penguins (-122)
Thu May 1 ‘08 7:05p - Click Here for NHL Playoff Odds
The Pittsburgh Penguins enter into this tilt in MSG vs the NY Rangers with a 3-0 series strangle hold on this series. With key component and agitator Sean Avery expected to miss this game with a lacerated spleen, the Rangers situation looks dire. It must be noted that the Rangers are 33-14-10 with Avery in the lineup and just 9-13-3 when he is out. Look for Sid the Kid Crosby and his super star side kick Evgeni Malkin to be the catalysts behind what Im predicting will be the final knock out blow in game 4 for the sweep. Note: Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog . NHL teams up 3-0 in a QF series, are 35-17 SU for a .673 win % . Play on the Pens

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NHL Free Pick: New York Rangers (130)
Fri Apr 25 ‘08 7:00p - Click Here for Current NHL Odds
We picked the New York Rangers to reach the Stanley Cup Finals before these playoffs started, so for our prediction to hold true, they have to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at least once on the road in this series. Well, there is no time like the present.

The Rangers have allowed the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference this season, permitting just 2.32 goals per game. They have taken a page out of the rival New Jersey Devils’ book this year, becoming more defensive oriented and playing a neutral zone trap, with any offensive opportunities being generated by that defense. Sure, the end result is that they are only scoring 2.60 goals per game themselves, but that is fine when you allow two goals or less a majority of the time. It certainly helps to have Henrik Lundqvist and his 2.24 GAA and .913 save percentage between the pipes.

Now the Penguins are the two seed in the East, but they actually lost the season series to the Rangers 5-3 this year. Furthermore, while Pittsburgh averaged 3.00 goals per game vs. the entire league, they were stifled by the Rangers trap, averaging just a total of 17 goals in the eight meetings. They were held to two goals or less in five of those encounters and to exactly three goals in two others.

Finally, the Rangers have been great underdogs lately, going a lucrative 8-3 the last 11 times they have been cast in this role. Look for their defense to lead them to another upset win here.

NHL Free Pick: Rangers +130

Free Playoff Betting Pick: Colorado Avalanche (165)
Thu Apr 24 ‘08 7:35p - Click Here for Playoff Betting Odds
The Detroit Red Wings remain prime Stanley Cup contenders and they are prohibitive favorites in these Conference Semifinals over the Colorado Avalanche, but the Wings may have a surprise in store for them in Game 1.

Now granted, Detroit swept the four-game season series from the Avalanche, not even allowing a single goal in the last three matchups. However, that may serve as a negative here, as the Wings may be a tad overconfident and may feel that they should be able to conserve some energy this series with a perceived tougher opponent on deck in the next round. That could backfire tonight though vs. a Colorado team that is playing its best hockey of the season right now.

The Avs won two games on the road while knocking off the Minnesota Wild in six games in the opening round, as they got some solid goaltending from Jose Theodore, who allowed just four goals in the last three games. Colorado also received a lift from three players they acquired or re-acquired before the trading deadlines in Ruslan Salei and old favorites Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote. Thus this is not the same team that the Wings dominated most of the year and they cannot be taken lightly.

Now we feel that Detroit is going to win this series regardless of the result tonight. However, we do look for the Avalanche to send the Wings a wake-up call with a Game 1 upset.

NHL Free Pick: Avalanche +165 - Click Here to Buy LT Profit’s Expert NHL Betting Picks

Ben Burns 1st Round NHL Hockey Playoff Preview
Click Here to Buy Ben Burns Expert NHL Hockey Playoff Picks

I’m coming off an excellent regular season and the NHL playoffs are tyically a profitable time of year for me. I had another strong postseason last year, going 22-14-4, including 6-1-1 my last eight. Below, I’ve offered some notes from each of the opening round matchups. Note that just because I have predicted a team will win its opening round series, doesn’t mean that I won’t play against that same team at some point within the series.

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens
Series Price: Montreal -340, Boston +260

Montreal
The Canadiens finished first in the Eastern Conference with 104 points. They were strong both at home and on the road and closed out the regular season by winning seven of their eight games. The Canadiens 3.2 goals per game was tied (with Ottawa) for the best mark in the league while rookie goalie Carey Price has been playing with the poise of a veteran. Note that captain Saku Koivu is injured and won’t be available for the start of the series.

Boston
The Bruins snuck in the playoffs with 94 points. They’ve over-achieved, despite dealing with numerous injuries throughout the season. Forward Patrice Bergeron, who missed most of the season with a concussion, has been cleared for the playoffs. He’s one of the Bruins’ top offensive players and should provide a boost. Marc Savard, who has missed the last seven games of the regular season but could also return.

Head to Head History
The Canadiens should be happy to draw the Bruins, as they have dominated this “Original 6″ rivalry, for some time now. Indeed, the Canadiens are 11-0 the last 11 series meetings, including a perfect 8-0 this season. Looking back further and we find that the Canadiens are 17-3 the last 20 meetings. The ‘over’ was 11-8-1 in those games, including 6-2 this season. This will be the 31st time that the rivals have faced each other in the playoffs. The Canadiens won 23 of those 30 meetings.

Burns’ Bottom Line
The Canadiens have won more Stanley Cups than any other franchise and they’re hungry for another. The Bruins, on the other hand, have already enjoyed a successful season, regardless of what happens here. The Bruins might steal a game or two and should put up a tougher fight than most are expecting. However, in the end, the Canadiens should continue their series domination.

Prediction: Montreal in 6

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
Series Price: Pittsburgh -260, Ottawa +220

Pittsburgh
Last season, the Penguins were a young and somewhat underachieving team with loads of potential. They faced these same Senators in the first round and were quickly ousted in five games. They took a huge step this season though, finishing second overall in the East. If superstar Sidney Crosby hadn’t been hurt, they likely would have finished number one. The Pens have more than Crosby though, including Evgeni Malkin, who finished with 106 points. They closed the season by winning 10 of 13 games.

Ottawa
The Senators, who advanced all the way to the Finals last season, are back in the playoffs for the 11th straight time. While they were in first place for more days than any other Eastern Conference team, they stumbled down the stretch, backing their way into the postseason and finishing with the seventh seed. General manager Bryan Murray fired coach John Paddock in late February, putting himself in charge, but the move didn’t do much good. The Sens lost six of their last eight and are dealing with several key injuries, including captain Daniel Alfredsson.

Head to Head History
As mentioned, the Sens won last year’s playoff series. They also won three of this season’s four regular season meetings, three of which finished above the number.

Burns’ Bottom Line
If the Senators were healthy, I’d give them a real shot here. However, without Alfredsson in the lineup, asking them to suddenly turn things around is likely asking too much. Look for the explosive Penguins to take “the next step.”

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 6

Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
Series Price: Washington -145, Philadelphia +120

Washington
The Capitals enter the playoffs as one of the league’s hottest teams. In fact, Washington won its last seven in a row (and 11 of 12) to move from ninth all the way up to third. Alexander Ovechkin was the best player in the NHL this year, becoming just the sixth player in 37 years to lead the league in goals (65) and points (112) in the same season. He’s a threat to score every time he’s on the ice and his game should be well suited for the playoffs.

Philadelphia
Like the Capitals, the Flyers finished the regular season on a major run, winning seven of their last nine games. Also, like the Capitals, they weren’t in the playoffs last season. Note that star center Daniel Briere, the team’s second leading scorer, is banged up with a knee injury. He will play in this series but he may not be at 100 percent.

Head to Head History
The teams split four meetings this season with the visiting team winning all four games. Three of the games were decided by a single goal and the other was decided by just two. The first game produced five combined goals, slipping below the over/under line of 5.5. The next three meetings all finished above the total, however, with combined scores of seven, 10 and seven.

Burns’ Bottom Line
This should be an extremely close series and could go either way. While the Flyers are arguably the better overall team, Ovechkin’s the best player in the series, if not the league. Look for him to have a huge series, carrying his team to the next round.

Prediction: Capitals in 7

New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils
Series Price: New York -130, New Jersey +110

These rivals faced each other eight times this season with the Rangers winning seven of those games. The games were all close though, as every game was close and four of them went to extra time. Additionally, the Devils won the eighth and final of those meetings, which was critical as it gave them home ice for the series. Note that the ‘under’ was 5-2-1, which is why you’ll be seeing ‘totals’ of just 4.5 in this series.

Burns’ Bottom Line
On paper, the Rangers have arguably more talent. They’ve also got a solid goalie in Henrik Lunqvist. However, the Devils are backed by Martin Brodeur, one of the best goalies of the modern era. Brodeur has a habit of elevating his game come playoff time and I won’t be surprised if he outplays Lundqvist and helps the Devils score the ‘upset.’

Prediction: New Jersey in 7

Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings
Series Price: Detroit -580, Nashville +450

The Red Wings are coming off a great regular season, finishing with the most points (115) in the league. They’ve had plenty of strong regular seasons in the past though and have a tendency to “choke” come playoff time. That being said, they’ve got a significant talent advantage in this matchup. The Predators aren’t slouches though. Despite losing a lot of firepower last offseason, they fought hard and clawed their way into the eighth and final spot.

Head to Head History
The division rivals faced each other eight times this season with the Wings winning six of those games. The ‘under’ was a profitable 5-3, including 3-1 in the four games played at Detroit.

Burns’ Bottom Line:
The Wings are the better team here and past playoff failures should ensure that they’re fully focused.

Prediction: Detroit in 5

Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks
Series Price: San Jose -300, Calgary +240

The Sharks closed out the regular season on a 14-2-2 run, finishing comfortably in second in the conference and with the second best record in the league. While they were solid at home, they had the league’s best overall record on the road.

Calgary is a highly capable team, one which is only a couple of years removed from making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Flames still hae the key components from that team, in captain Jarome Iginla and goalie Kiprusoff.

Head to Head History
The Flames took three of four meetings this season, including both at San Jose. The ‘over’ was 2-0-2.

Burns’ Bottom Line:
As I mentioned, I feel that the Flames are a highly capable team. If they were facing another opponent, I’d probably like them to advance. However, they’ve been inconsistent on the season, while the Sharks tend to “bring it” every night. The Sharks are a legit threat to win the Stanley Cup and should get it done here.

Prediction: San Jose in 5

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild
Series Price: Minnesota -110, Colorado -110

This is an interesting matchup. I like the Wild as a team and they treated me well this season. They finished with a better record than the Avs this season and won the Northwest division for the first time. The Avs had to deal with injuries to a lot of key players though and are better now than they were during the season. That’s particularly true given that they added Peter Forsberg, Adam Foote and Ruslan Salei at the trade deadline.

Head to Head History
The wild won five of this season’s eight meetings, including all four at Minnesota. The ‘under’ was 4-2-2.

Burns’ Bottom Line
This should be an extremely close series. I have a lot of respect for Colorado’s veteran stars. That being said, the Wild are very well coached and one of the best in the game at protecting a lead. Both teams are much better at home which gives the Wild a slight edge, should the series go to seven.

Prediction: Minnesota in 7

Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
Series Price: Anaheim -220, Dallas +180

The Ducks are back and ready to defend their title. This is a fairly tough first round draw, for a team which finished with 102 points, as the Stars finished with 95 of their own. Still, the edge certainly lies with the champs. While Dallas goalie Marty Turco has had a less than memorable playoff career, Anaheim goalie JS Gigeure has the best winning percentage among active NHL goalies (.689), going 31-13 in his career, while leading his team to a Stanley Cup.

Head to Head History
The Stars took five of eight meetings this season. With Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne back in the fold, the Ducks took the most recent two, though. The ‘under’ was 3-3-2.

Burns’ Bottom Line
The Ducks are built for the playoffs. Teams can beat them once or twice but their physical brand of hockey wears a team down by the end of the series. We saw it last season and we should see it again in this series.

Prediction: Anaheim in 6

Free NHL Pick: New York Rangers (100)
Fri Apr 18 ‘08 7:35p - Click Here for NHL Betting Odds
In all honesty, the New York Rangers should have swept their opening round series vs. the rival New Jersey Devils already, as the Devils’ lone win came on a lucky bounce in overtime. Look for the Rangers to officially put the Devils out of their misery tonight.

The Rangers actually bear a strong resemblance to the Devils’ Stanley Cup winning teams this season. They have a defensive mindset and a great goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, in fact allowing the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference at just 2.32 goals per game. This has more than offset the fact that the offense is averaging a rather ordinary 2.60 goals per contest.

However, that approach has worked to perfection vs. a Devils team that is also offensively challenged. The Rangers went 7-1 vs. New Jersey during the regular season, with the Devils not even managing a point against them until that lone victory, a 3-2 shootout win in the second-to-last games of the season.

Now the Rangers only average 2.56 goals on the road, but again, that is offset by the fact that the Devils only average 2.47 goals per game at home. Thus, it is not a total shock that the Rangers have yet to lose here in New Jersey all year, going 6-0 in the regular season and playoffs combined.

It was thought before this series began that the Rangers were the worst possible first round matchup for the Devils despite New Jersey owning the home ice advantage. Well, it appears that those fears were correct and we look for the Rangers to end the Devils’ season tonight by concluding a season sweep in New Jersey. - Courtesy of LT Profits

NHL Free Pick: Rangers +100