Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche
Free Pick: Under 5.5 -110 odds
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These teams played two night ago, at LA. That game finished above the total, with a final score of 4-3. That one easily could have been lower-scoring though. For starters, neither team had many shots on goal. LA finished with 23. Colorado had 21.

Additionally, the score was 2-1 into the third period. In fact, with a score of 3-2, it was still ‘under’ the total of 5.5, until there were just 10 seconds left in the third period. That’s when the Avalanche scored the tying goal, which forced overtime.

Note that this season’s previous meeting between these teams didn’t feature too many shots (23-22) either. LA won that one by a score of 3-0.

Prior to Monday’s game, the Kings had seen five straight games stay below the total. Those games had scores of 3-2, 2-1, 3-2, 3-0 and 1-0. Including the first two of those games, which both came on the road, the Kings have seen the ‘under’ go a profitable 53-37 the last 90 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5, including 17-12 this season.

The Avs have seen the ‘under’ go 43-30-3 the last few seasons, when coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. During the same stretch, even including Monday’s result, they’ve also seen the ‘under’ go a profitable 54-32-7 when facing a team with a winning record. Consider the Under 5.5.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
Free NHL Pick: Ottawa -180 odds
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The Senators entered the Olympic Break on a major roll. In fact, they had won 14 of 16 games and that included an 11-game winning streak. However, they’ve cooled right off, since the break. Since the Olympics ended, they’ve gone 1-4-1. That should have them playing with a ‘sense of urgency’ this evening.

Ottawa coach Cory Clouston said as much: “We just have to play a little bit more urgent. Before the break, we were playing like we had something to lose and we built up such – I don’t want to say a big cushion for playoffs – but we relaxed a little bit. We’ve got to start treating these games like playoff games.”

The Sens should have some added motivation here, as the Leafs have actually beaten them three straight times. Even with those results, however, the Leafs are just 6-13 (-6.8) against divisional opponents while the Sens are 12-8 (+3.2) when they’ve faced teams from within their own division.

While the Leafs have admittedly been better recently, they’re still among the league’s weaker teams and they’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Islanders last time out.

The Leafs recent win at Ottawa was the only time they won a road game all season long, when the O/U line was 5.5. The Sens, on the other hand, are 17-7 when playing a home game with a total of 5.5. With the Sens also at 9-1 (+8.8) the last 10 times that they were playing with two day’s rest in between games, consider laying the wood with the revenge-minded home team.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals
Free NHL Pick: Under 7 -110 NHL Odds
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Yesterday’s winner on the Calgary Flames brings us to three “free play” winners in a row.

Two high-scoring teams face off in the nation’s capital tonight and it’s been a long-time since I’ve seen a “7″ on the board; after a disheartening overtime loss to the Leafs yesterday, I expect the Tampa Bay Lightning to come out a bit listless this evening, and ultimately that will be the difference in the final outcome of this contest:

Tampa Bays late playoff drive hit a major road block last night in Toronto. The Lightning have lost seven of eight and are now six points behind Boston for the eighth spot in the East.

With roughly 15 games remaining though, anything can still happen;

“For us it’s about results right now. We just can’t seem to find that. I still don’t think we are making it hard enough on teams, so we just have to keep working, keep pushing and believing that we can make a run.” —Lightning right wing Marty St. Louis, after last night’s loss.

Antero Nittymaki gets a shot to earn his club an elusive road victory.

On the other side of the ice: The Capitals have a 14-point lead in the Eastern Conference.

Washington “owns” Tampa Bay when defending its home ice; 14-1 last 15 at the Verizon Center vs. the Lightning.

It’s got to a point now where coach Bruce Boudreau’s biggest concern is getting all of his players, including his most recent acquisitions, enough playing time; Joe Corvo, Scott Walker and Eric Belanger were all grabbed at the deadline to make this scary team even more dangerous.

G Semyon Varlamov gets a chance to extend his teams overall home ice dominance.

Bottom line: In their 4-3 OT win against Carolina, I saw some positives on the defensive end of the ice for the Capitals; they did much better on the penalty-kill, stopping the ‘Canes in four of their five power-play chances.

Washington is assured a playoff spot and while Boudreau is unlikely to change up his teams game plan this late in the year, I do expect this club to play with a more concerted effort on the defensive end down the stretch and leading into the playoffs.

When coupled with the fact that the Lightning will surely be gassed after last nights contest, I look for this game to sneak “under” the total.

Ottawa Senators vs. Calgary Flames
Free NHL Pick: Calgary -135 NHL odds
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Although I expect this game to be a tightly contested affair, for a number of different reasons I believe the decently valued Flames will do just enough in this one to escape with a home victory over the visiting Senators: Following the Olympic break, the Sens went 0-2-1, but skated away with a convincing 4-1 drubbing of the Oilers on Tuesday. Ottawa’s road-trip ends on Saturday in Vancouver, where the Canucks will be playing their first home game after a marathon 14-game road trip, sandwiched around the Olympics; the Sens could be caught “looking ahead” to that tough game. Ottawa will also have to deal with the “revenge factor”, as they won at home against the Flames on Feb 9th; note though that Ottawa has lost three straight at the Saddledome. Brian Elliot will be back in net and faces a resurgent Calgary team thats averaged 4.7 goals during its three-game win streak. Keep in mind that Ottawa is just 2-4 its last six overall; also just 1-5 its last six vs. Calgary. On the other side of the rink: With their 4-2 road victory over the Wings (a game in which I recommended Calgary), the Flames moved a point ahead of Detroit for the eighth and final playoff spot. Jarome Iginla has been on fire of late; four goals and three assists during the current win streak. Miikka Kiprusoff was sharp in Detroit, will be back in net tonight, and needs just one victory to reach 30 for the fifth consecutive season No doubt Calgary has looked sharp of late; 4-1 its last five.

Bottom line: The Flames have also reserved their best play for non-conference tilts; 9-5 (+3.6 units) when playing against teams from the Eastern conference. Although Ottawa is great in many ATS statistical categories, this is in fact one spot that its struggled in mightily all year; a poor 8-12 (-5.6 units) after scoring 4 goals or more in its previous contest; which of course means this team is highly susceptible to a letdown after a decent performance. Sweeping in Alberta is a tough order for any team, and like I said off the top, I expect this to be a close game, but in the end I expect CALGARY to prevail.

Calgary Flames vs. Detroit Red Wings
Free NHL Pick: Calgary
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A critical Western Conference matchup sees the Calgary Flames travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings; for a number of different reasons I believe the prudent wager in this one is the Flames on the “puck line”: The Wings are currently holding down the eighth spot in the West with the Flames sitting in ninth. Calgary has won three of four; Detroit four of five. Detroit beat Chicago 5-4 on Sunday; Calgary whipped the Wild 5-2 later the same day. Miikka Kiprusoff is 4-2-0 with 2.31 GAA in his last six starts against the Wings and is expected to get the start tonight. Calgary has seemingly turned a corner after a rough patch and I believe it will leave everything it has on the ice tonight as it gears up for a run down the stretch; in a tightly contested affair which could very well see OT; consider laying it here for the +1 1/2.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Free NHL Pick: Chicago -170 odds
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I won with the Hawks when they beat up on Vancouver last time out and, while the price is a little on the steep side, I feel that they’ve got a great shot at recording another victory this afternoon.

The Hawks have won three of four meetings with the Wings this season. Only one of those was at Chicago. The Hawks were laying -230 for that one and won by a score of 3-0. That makes this afternoon’s price start to seem a lot more reasonable.

Including those results, the Hawks are an outstanding 14-4 (+6.6) vs. divisional opponents. On the other hand, the Wings are just 7-9 (-4.5) when matched up against a divisional foe.

Both teams are off a big win in their last game. I already mentioned that the Hawks won 6-3 – the Wings won their game by a score of 5-2. That’s noteworthy as Detroit is 5-10 (-9.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 6-10 (-8) after a win by two or more. Conversely, Chicago is 15-7 after a win by two or more goals and 20-9 after scoring four or more.

Looking back further and we find the Hawks at 53-30 (+17.8) the past few seasons after a win by two or more and 64-34 (+24.6) after scoring four or more. They’ve got the most home wins (tied with Washington) in the league and should be able to build on those stats here. Consider laying the wood.

Minnesota Wild vs. Edmonton Oilers
Free NHL Pick: Edmonton
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The Wild beat the Oilers in both meetings at Minnesota this season. However, the Oilers won the lone meeting here at Edmonton. Including that victory (5-2 on 10/16) the Oilers are 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Wild. While they’ve admittedly been pretty brutal this season, I feel that they’re providing excellent value tonight, both on the money-line but also on the (+1.5) puck-line.

The reason I mention the puck-line option is that both teams have shown a tendency to play quite a few 1-goal games. Edmonton lost its last game by a score of 5-2. However, that was against one of the best teams (Chicago) in the league and that game was tied 2-2 after two periods. Prior to that, the Oilers had seen three of their previous four games decided by one goal.

As for the Wild, they’ve seen three of their past five games decided by a single goal. I already mentioned that the Oilers won 5-2 when they hosted the Wild earlier. However, the previous two series meetings, here at Edmonton, had both been decided by a single goal – and the previous eight games here had all been decided by two or less. Consider Edmonton at +1.5 goals.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Dallas Stars
Free NBA Pick: LA Kings +120 NHL odds
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The Kings are 37-20-4 in the season and their 78 points have them sitting in 5th spot in the Western Conference. Los Angeles comes into this one having won 10 of their last 12 games overall. In their last 8 road games the Kings are a profitable 7-1. In their last 9 games following a win they are 8-1. The Kings are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a SU losing record. In their last 12 games vs. a division opponent they are 12-5.

With a 21-18-12 record this season and 68 points the Stars are currently sitting in 10th spot in the Western Conference. The Stars are coming off a win in their last game and in their 64 games following a win they are 16-48. Tonight Dallas will be in tough vs. a team they struggle against.

Dallas has lost 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Kings. LA is 4-1 in their last 5 trips to Dallas and tonight they’ll take another one.

Play on the Los Angeles Kings +.

Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators
Free NHL Pick: Calgary +125 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe the Flames are offering up decent value in this situation:

The Flames won 6-3 at Scotiabank Place on March 3rd last year, as Miikka Kiprusoff improved to 5-0-0 in his career against the Senators.

Calgary has gone 3-1-1 since a nine-game losing streak and has a chance to finish a three-game road trip with five of a possible six points as it tries to maintain its grip on a playoff spot.

The Flames let an extra point slip away Saturday night in Tampa, losing 2-1 in overtime – their fourth defeat in 27 games after entering the third period with the lead; I look for them to play with a concerted effort in the Nations capital tonight though.

On the other side of the rink: The Senators’ string of 11 straight victories ended Saturday night in a 5-0 road loss to Toronto, which scored three goals in the first period after Ottawa had held each opponent during the streak to two or fewer goals for the entire game.

I believe the Sens will suffer a letdown tonight against a team they haven’t been able to beat in nearly six years.

The Maple Leafs chased red-hot goalie Brian Elliott, who was 9-0-0 with a 1.22 goals-against average in his previous nine starts and he’ll have his hands full tonight with some of his teammates on the IL.

Bottom line: The injury bug is striking the Senators again with defenseman Erik Karlsson and left wing Nick Foligno out.

This is a good spot, offering good value; play on the CALGARY FLAMES.

Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
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Two of the most storied franchises in the NHL duke it out north of the border on Sunday afternoon, where the Boston Bruins (23-22-11, -$404) will meet the Montreal Canadiens (27-25-6, +$1,024). The B’s have been awful of late, losing ten straight games with just four points to show for it. As a result, they’ve slid all the way to the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture heading into Sunday. They haven’t won a game in regulation time since January 5th against Ottawa, which is their only regulation victory in 2010. Montreal has been headed in the opposition direction, as the Habs have picked up three straight NHL wagering victories.

Boston’s offense just has to pick up the pace at some point if it is going to make the playoffs in the crowded Eastern Conference. The unit is only scoring 2.3 goals per game, a number which just isn’t going to cut it. The Bruins’ 3-2 shootout loss at home to the Canucks on Saturday marked their ninth straight game in which they failed to score more than two goals in a game. That’s putting a ton of pressure on Gs Tuukka Rask and Tim Thomas. The two both have solid GAAs on the season (Rusk is at 2.11, while Thomas has a 2.52 GAA), but because they are constantly being left out to dry by their offense, they both have subpar records. C Patrice Bergeron is the only person on this team to have more than 30 points on the season.

Montreal’s offense hasn’t exactly been anything to write home about either at 2.5 goals per game, but at least the Habs can say that they’ve recorded three straight games with at least three goals scored. Special teams are where this squad really excels. Montreal is converting on 25.0% of its power plays this year, which is #2 in the NHL, while its penalty kill is doing the job on 83.7% of its attempts, good enough for seventh. C Tomas Plekanec is coming off of a solid three point performance against the Penguins on Saturday. He leads the team with 43 assists and 58 points.

Just three days ago, these teams met in Boston, with the Habs winning 3-2 in a shootout. It marked the third straight time that the Canadiens have beaten the boys from Beantown. If there’s anything that hockey betting fans of the Bruins can bank on in this one, it’s that their squad is 28-11 in its L/39 games against the Northeast Division.

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