Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks
Free NHL Pick: San Jose Sharks -240 odds
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The Sharks are the biggest favorite on the Wednesday hockey board. However, I feel that the price could easily be even higher. One of the things keeping the price in somewhat reasonable territory (It’s still very expensive but teams like Washington and Chicago are currently laying even more on Thursday) is the fact that the Sharks have a less than stellar playoff history. Indeed, seemingly every year they enter the playoffs as one of the favorites, only to get upset in one of the opening rounds. That’s all in the past though and I believe this will prove to be a very favorable matchup for them.

While that history is helping to keep the line down, (slightly) I expect it to have a motivating effect on the Sharks. They lost last year’s playoff opener (2-0 loss to Anaheim) and ended up losing the series. They know that they absolutely cannot afford to get behind the eight ball again.

The Sharks won 27 of 41 home games this season. On the other hand, the Avalanche won 19 of 41 road games. Colorado got off to a very quick start this season but has been largely mediocre ever since. The Sharks had a couple of tough stretches, but were mostly dominant for the entire season.

The Avs can score goals. However, they don’t score as many as the Sharks. San Jose finished with an average of 3.2 goals per game, including a whopping 3.5 per game at home. Colorado finished with 3.0 per game, including 2.9 on the road. The Sharks averaged 33.6 shots per game at home. The Avs averaged a mere 25.8 on the road.

The Sharks also have the edge in terms of goals against. San Jose limited opponents to 2.6 goals per game, including just 2.4 at home. Colorado allowed an average of 2.8, including 3.1 on the road.

Some may suggest that the Avs have the advantage in goal. I don’t believe that’s the case though. Yes, Anderson had a strong season. However, he wasn’t great down the stretch and San Jose’s Nabakov is coming off arguably his best season. The Sharks’ netminder finished second in the league in wins (44), 6th in save percentage (.922) and 10th in goals-against-average (2.43).

The home team won all four regular season meetings. Including their two wins here, the Sharks are now 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Avs. Looking back further and we find them at 6-1 the last seven times that they were a host in this series and 10-3 the last 13. I expect them to win both the opening game and the series. Consider laying the wood.

Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Free NHL Pick: Tampa Bay -135 odds
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These teams have played four times so far this season. The Panthers have won both meetings when they’ve been the host team, while the teams have split the two meetings here at Tampa. Looking back further and we find the Lightning have won 11 of the last 19 meetings, when hosting the Panthers. The Lightning are a somewhat respectable 20-14-6 at home. While that’s not “great,” it’s a lot better than Florida’s 16-21-3 mark on the road. With this being the home finale for the Lightning and with these two teams scheduled to close out their respective seasons at Florida on Sunday, I expect the Lightning to be the “hungrier,” or more motivated, team. That’s particularly true with Florida having won the last three meetings in this “instate rivalry.” That should be enough for the Lightning to close out their home slate by giving the home fans a victory. Consider Tampa Bay.

New York Islanders vs. New Jersey Devils
Free NHL Pick: New York +205 odds
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take New York Islanders (+210) at New Jersey (7 pm ET) – This is a great spot to take a shot at a big price. The Islanders have nothing to play for, but they are a young bunch looking to build on the future and prove that they can compete. They have won five of their last seven, and with just two games remaining they will be playing full out. The Devils are tied with Pittsburgh and will theoretically be motivated to earn the second seeding, but I don’t actually believe that to be the motivator that it is thought to be – the team is already in the playoffs and playing at home. New Jersey has won just two of their last six, so they aren’t exactly lighting it up. The Isles have beaten the Devils twice this year, including once less than a month ago, so they certainly aren’t incapable of pulling off the upset. I would make this game virtually a coin flip, so there is big value here.

Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Free NHL Pick: Ottawa Senators -140 odds
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I played on Ottawa successfully two nights ago and they beat up on the Panthers 5-2; for a number of different reasons I believe they’ll once again come out on top tonight against a team they’ve owned historically: After losing 4-1 to the Islanders on Saturday, the Sens bounced back with that 5-2 win over Florida on Tuesday. “We did some good things. I thought we worked hard on the penalty kill,” said coach Cory Clouston, whose team has held its last eight opponents to 2 for 31 on the power play. “We generated the offense that we wanted. I thought we lost a little bit of focus toward the end of third but overall very happy with the game.” Not only is Ottawa 7-1 its last eight, its also 4-1 its last five on the road. On the other side of the ice: Only the Leafs have allowed more goals this year than the Lightning. They are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Rangers on Friday and an 8-5 home loss to the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Antero Niittymaki fell to 4-9-0 with a 4.09 goals-against average in his last 16 appearances and was relieved Tuesday by Mike Smith, one game after Smith was chased in favor of Niittymaki. Tampa is limping down the stretch; 1-4 its last five overall; 1-6 its last seven in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: Ottawa is clearly the more motivated team here and will look to secure the fourth spot with a victory tonight; consider a second look at the decently priced SENATORS in this one.

Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Free NHL Pick: Phoenix -135 odds
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These teams have split two meetings at Nashville this season. However, the Coyotes won the lone meeting here at Phoenix. That’s not that surprising, given their outstanding record at home this season.

For the season, the Coyotes have gone 28-12 (28-10-2) here in the desert. That includes a perfect 6-0 mark their last six here. This is their final home game of the regular season, so they’ll be looking to go out on a winning note. That’s particularly true, as they may face the Predators in the first round of the playoffs. They’d like to send a message to Nashville and the rest of the league, that winning here at Phoenix will not be easy.

Of course, the same line of thinking holds true for the Preds, as they’d like to prove that they can win here. That said, I feel that the extra rest (neither team has played since 4/3) will favor Phoenix.

The Coyotes are a profitable 15-9 (+10.6) the last 24 times that they played with three or more day’s rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Preds are a money-burning 5-14 (-8) when they have done so. Consider Phoenix

Ottawa Senators vs. Florida Panthers
Free NHL Pick: Ottawa Senators -135 odds
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With so few games remaining in the season, I throw ATS stats out the window and focus primarily on motivational factors; for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this particular contest is on the Ottawa Senators: Florida was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with its 4-1 loss to the Rangers on Saturday. It fell apart in the third, allowing four goals and lost for the fifth time in six games. Putting the “biscuit in the basket” has been an issue for the Panthers all year; they’ve been held to two goals or less in each of their last six contests with their forwards failing to score in the last two. Finding motivation to play competitively in their remaining games will be an issue for the Panthers until the end of the season. On the other side of the ice: Daniel Alfredsson will play his 1000th game tonight; after missing the post-season a year ago, the Sens have clinched a spot in this years playoffs, but a point tonight will lock them into at least the fifth position in the East.

Bottom line: Coming off a listless 4-1 loss to the Isles on Saturday, I expect this team to refocus; “We don’t want to relax just because we’re in a spot,” center Mike Fisher said. “We’ve had a good run and we’ll be ready and regroup.” With a first round matchup against either the Penguins or Devils, finishing the season strong and playing at a high level as it heads into the playoffs is obviously crucial for this teams success. I expect OTTAWA to take advantage of this situation.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Free NHL Pick: Montreal +125 odds
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Good value on the visitors here:

An important game for both teams; The Flyers are 1-5-1 while the Habs are 1-3-2 since March 20th.

Philadelphia is coming off a 6-4 humbling loss to the Islanders yesterday, and I believe they’ll be somewhat gassed this evening and ultimately that will be the difference.

Montreal is coming off a loss of its own, 2-1 to Carolina on Wednesday.

This is the first game of a back-to-back for Montreal; suffice to say I expect a huge effort from the Habs before their game with the Sabres tomorrow.

Both teams are struggling in most ATS statistical categories, but this is a spot that Montreal has done well in all year, and I expect that trend to continue this evening; 21-17 (+8.7 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent (Philly won back-to-back games on Feb 12th and 13th in a home-and-home affair).

Consider a second look at Montreal tonight.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
Free NHL Pick: Edmonton PL
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Yesterday, we took a large underdog (Florida) on the “puck-line.” It turned out that we didn’t need the extra 1.5 goals, as the Panthers won the game outright. Still, as expected, it was a close game, (1-0) which was decided by one goal. Here’s another case where we can get a very reasonable price with the +1.5 goal option, in a game that also has a good chance of being close the whole way.

While the Oilers are admittedly having a dismal season, they haven’t just rolled over and quit. They’re 3-3 their last six games. Five of those games, including all three of the losses, were decided by a single goal. In other words, if one had been getting +1.5 goals with them in all six of those games, one would be a perfect 6-0.

The Stars are off an impressive 5-1 win over San Jose. They haven’t won back to back games since mid-February though, having alternated wins and losses in each of their last 10 games. Overall, they’ve got just six wins in their past 16 games.

A look at the season series between these teams shows that all three games were decided by a single goal. Those games had scores of 4-3, 3-2 and 5-4. Edmonton won two of them, both of those victories coming via the “shootout.” Looking back further and we find that 10 of the last 16 meetings in the series have been decided by one goal. Consider Edmonton on the puck-line.

Below are free NHL hockey Picks and NHL predictions for March 29th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free NHL hockey picks on a daily basis or premium picks from our NHL hockey betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.

Free NHL Pick: Nashville Predators -125 (Vernon Croy)
3* Take Nashville ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NHL systems and the Predators are the better overall team here tonight. The Predators are 5-0 in their last 5 games against a Southeast opponent and they are 6-1 in their last 7 road games when playing a team that has a losing record at home. Nashville is 20-8 in their last 28 games when favored on the road and they have won 7 of their last 9 games. The Panthers are just 5-25 in their last 30 games as an underdog and they are just 9-26 in their last 35 home games when playing against a team that has a winning record on the road. Take Nashville with great value tonight.

Free NHL Pick: Hurricanes vs. Thrashers Under 6 (Jimmy the Moose)
The Hurricanes have played under the total in 3 straight games and in 4 of their last 5. Carolina has played the under in 4 of their last 5 road games. The under is also a profitable 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record and in their last 5 games vs. a team from the Eastern Conference. In their last 8 games vs. a team from the Southeast Division the under is 6-2. Their last 4 games played with 1-day rest between action have played under the total. Atlanta’s last 4 games have played under the total. In their last 6 games played vs. a team with a losing record the under is 5-1. The Thrashers last 4 games vs. a team from the Eastern Conference have played under the total. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in the second game of a home-and-home situation. The teams played on March 27th with the Thrashers winning 4-0 and the game playing under the total. The last two meeting between the clubs have played the under and this one will follow suit.

Calgary Flames vs. New York Islanders
Free Pick: Calgary Flames -140 odds
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The Flames are in a battle to make the playoffs and this is a game that the whole teams knows is a must win. Calgary has played a lot better of late and come into this one having won 3 of their last 4 and 7 of their last 10 overall. In their last 9 games played with 1-day rest between action the Flames are 9-1.

The Islanders played the Rangers last night and lost 5-0. New York has lost 16 of their last 22 overall and tonight they face a Flames team they struggle against. The Islanders are 6-24 in their last 30 games played with 0 days to rest between games. In their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7-days or more the Islanders are 1-4.

The Flames have won 6 of their last 7 trips to Long Island. In the last 13 meetings between the clubs Calgary is 10-3. Look for the Flames to easily take another one tonight.