2009 Preakness Stakes early betting preview courtesy of ATS Consultants. Below you will find early horse probables and odds for next week’s second leg of the Triple Crown, The Preakness Stakes. If you plan on betting this year’s 2009 Preakness Stakes, be sure to check back next week for the official entries, as well as expert betting analysis courtesy of ATS Consultants.
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7/2 Rachel Alexandra, by Medaglia D’oro out of Lotta Kim, by Roar, bred in Kentucky. Well how about this? After winning the Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths, Curlin owner Jess Jackson comes in and buys this filly with intentions of taking on the big boys in Baltimore. So far she has shown no weaknesses. She’s won at multiple distances on multiple surfaces. This will be her first test against males. So you never know, but she’s passed every test thus far. This is all assuming she runs of course. If she does, she would be the likely favorite.
5-1 Pioneerof the Nile, by Empire Maker out of Shart of Goshen, by Lord at War, bred in Kentucky. Ran a great race Derby Day and was clearly second-best to Mine that Bird. Put to rest any concerns that experts had about his ability to run on dirt. Garrett Gomez comes to Baltimore seeking his first Preakness win. Was third in the Breeders’ Futurity in Keeneland, fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juveinle, then won the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park. Trainer Bafftert is a three-time winner. We wouldn’t be shocked if he was favored Saturday.
6-1 Mine that Bird, by Birdstone out of Mining My Own, by Smart Strike, bred in Kentucky. Didn’t see that one coming, did you? Truthfully, neither did we. What more can we say, a perfect ride by Calvin Borel once again in the Derby. Mine That Bird never showed any ability to close before the Derby, but clearly this should be his preferred running style from here on out. He’ll have to be a closer on Saturday if he wants to take Leg 2 of the Triple Crown.
8-1 Musket Man, by Yonaguksa out of Fortunesque, by Fortunate Prospect, bred in Kentucky. Surprised many with strong 3rd-place run in Louisville, just missing second by a nose. His pedigree suggests sprinter, but he more than held his own at 1 ¼ miles. It says something to his ability that Eibar Coa will stay on instead of going to Big Drama, who he had ridden to two decisive victories. Will get some play at the windows on Saturday.
8-1 Papa Clem, by Smart Strike out of Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me, bred in Kentucky. Another runner who ran strong in Louisville, heads to Baltimore looking to move up a little. We think He has every right to improve as he seems to get stronger with distance. Ran evenly in the Derby, staking the pace in 3rd or 4th most of the way to finish 4th only a head behind 3rd place. He’s shown the ability to run on all surfaces and in different conditions. Definitely looks to be a factor here.
10-1 General Quarters, by Sky Mesa out of Ecology, by Unbridled’s Song, bred in Kentucky. We’re willing to forgive his poor performance in Kentucky, given he had never ran on an off-track before. Has been erratic, winning Blue Grass but before that bounced in Tampa Bay Derby running a lackluster 5th. Has also won over dirt before but his best performances have come on synthetic surfaces. His best will compete here.
10-1 Friesan Fire, by AP Indy out of Bollinger, by Dehere, bred in Kentucky. Got stepped on early in the Derby and lost all chance. Willing to excuse that one and we believe he’ll be fresh and ready to go in Baltimore. He looked great at the Fair Grounds on dirt followed by a win in the Risen Star Stakes next out. Also crushed in the LA Derby, took command around the final turn and drew off to win by 7 ¼ lengths. No reason why he wouldn’t fire in this one. He won’t be the favorite this time, so you can get good value on Saturday.
12-1 Big Drama, by Montbrook out of Riveting Drama, by Notebook, bred in Florida. One of the best of the “new shooters” on the Triple Crown scene. Comes in off a huge performance in the Swale at Gulfstream. He crossed the line first but was disqualified and placed 2nd. Only lost once as a 2-year old and was 3rd in that race. Cannot discount that effort especially considering it was off a four-month layoff. Must consider with these.
15-1 Join in the Dance, by Sky Mesa out of Dance Darling, by Devil’s Bag, bred in Kentucky. Set the pace in the Derby before tiring to finish a respectable seventh. He’s pretty much the same in each race. Good speed, but the questions is how far can he take it? Led most of the way in the Tampa Bay Derby but couldn’t Hold off Musket Man, finishing 2nd by a neck. Led and faded to 5 lengths in the Blue Grass for his final prep. Hard to recommend although Pletcher is one of the best trainers in the country.
18-1 Hull, but Holy Bull out of Band Queen, by Chimes Band, bred in Kentucky. Unraced at two, this one burst onto the national scene with a scintillating effort in the Derby Trial on April 25. Obviously he’s yet to be tested, but being out of Holy Bull we expect he’d be able to run all day. No question, he’ll be a monster. The only questions is how soon? Very intriguing.
20-1 Take the Points, by Even The Score, out of Ginger Ginger by Fred Astaire, bred in Kentucky. Another newcomer to the Triple Crown scene, this guy chased the likes of Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, and the Pampelmousse all over California this spring. Could have gone in the Derby after Win Willy dropped out, but opted to wait for the Preakness. He’s yet to win a graded race, but has been a hard trier and deserves respect. The fact that he skipped the Derby to point to the Preakness bodes well.
20-1 Terrain, by Sky Mesa out of Minery, by Forty Niner, bred in Kentucky. Late runner who fires every time, but yet to be rewarded on the big stage. Has held his own against some of the best In his division and has every right to improve even more given more distance. Finished 3rd in the LA Derby in the slop for his 2009 debut. Certainly worth a look at the bottom of exactas.
40-1 Flying Private, by Fusaichi Pegasus out of Beautiful Pleasure by Unbridled, bred in Kentucky. This impeccably-bred son of Fusaichi Pegasus hasn’t run to his pedigree as of yet. Finished last in the Derby by 43 lengths. We questioned D. Wayne Lukas for even entering him and we’ll do the same here. Nice effort on synthetic at Keeneland, but otherwise overmatched in Graded Stakes. PASS.
40-1 Miner’s Escape, by Mineshaft out of Spy Novel, by Broad Brush, bred in Kentucky. Former Preakness-winning trainer brings the Tesia winner to the Preakness as a real longshot. He was never better than 4th in three starts as a 2-year old in maiden races at Saratoga and The Meadowlands. He appears to be an improving Colt, but would need to step up big time to compete with these.
50-1 Tone It Down, by Medaglia D’oro out of Chattin, by Rollicking, bred in Kentucky. This is simply a case of local ownership wanting to run in the biggest local race. Has ZERO business in with these. The only thing we hope for is that he moves out of the way when he gets tired and no one gets hurt.
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