Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on NFL football this season, be sure to check out Ted’s 2008 Football Betting Predictions!

2008 Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Predictions
To call the Falcons 2007 season an unmitigated disaster is something of an understatement.  First year head coach Bobby Petrino was lured from the college ranks at Louisville because Petrino wanted the challenge of designing an offense for the unique talents of Michael Vick.  Unfortunately for Petrino, Vick was in jail by the time the season started, and the team’s veterans never bought into his system one iota.  Petrino was gone by December as the Falcons stumbled to a miserable 4-12 campaign.
 
The Falcons enter 2008 with a completely new gameplan.  Everything is new in Atlanta this year: a new general manager, a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator and a new rookie quarterback, the #1 overall pick Matt Ryan.  Teams that undergo this sort of change and transformation from one year to the next tend to struggle early and often while learning their new systems.  No surprise, then, that the Falcons Over/Under win total of 4.5 is the lowest in the NFL – conventional wisdom says that this team will be the worst squad in the league.
 
The scariest thing for Falcons supporters to consider might be the fact that somehow, Atlanta finished with a positive turnover differential in 2007, by far the weakest team in the league to win the turnover battle.  And, entering training camp, the Falcons have more than 50 players on their roster with two years of NFL experience or less.  Rookie head coach Mike Smith, the former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator is in line for a tough rebuilding job right from the get-go.
 
The Falcons enter training camp with a quarterback battle on their hands.  Chris Redman was out of the NFL when Petrino called him last year, desperate for a QB with familiarity running his offense.  Redman played for Petrino in college, but he was never considered a serious NFL prospect.  However, Redman was decent down the stretch for Atlanta last year, playing in seven games with a very respectable QB rating of 90.4.  Ryan, the rookie out of Boston College, was ranked as the eighth best college quarterback prospect heading into his senior year, and questions persist about his ability to immediately step into the starting role.
 
The bad news for whoever wins the quarterback battle is the state of the rest of Atlanta’s offense.  Yes, the offensive line has three linemen remaining from their NFC Championship Game appearance in 2004 (Todd Weiner, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney.  But even with those three last year, the Falcons allowed 47 sacks while paving the way for only 95 rushing yards per game after leading the league in rushing in each of their previous three seasons.  Rookie first rounder Sam Baker from USC is expected to start at left tackle.  New offensive line coach Paul Boudreau is hoping that Baker will have a Joe Thomas ( the Browns star rookie last year) effect on the OL as a rookie, not the Robert Gallery effect (the Raiders bust from ’05).
 
There’s some decent skill position talent to work with.  Running back Michael ‘The Burner’ Turner arrived in free agency from San Diego after a very successful stint as LaDanian Tomlinson’s backup.  But Turner has never carried the ball more than 80 times in his four NFL seasons – we don’t know if he can withstand a full season of the beating that running backs take on a weekly basis.  Wide receiver Roddy White enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, and the Falcons brass is hoping that another former first rounder, Michael Jenkins, will have a similar breakout in 2008. 
 
The Falcons defense ranked 29th in the NFL last year and lost their best player, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, in free agency.  Mike Smith hired Brian VanGorder as his new defensive coordinator; the Falcons linebackers coach last year after a short stint in the college ranks as the Georgia Bulldogs defensive coordinator.
 
VanGorder has some experienced talent to work with, particularly up front.  They’ll need to get some sort of a pass rush from defensive ends John Abraham (injury prone) and their 2007 #1 pick Jamaal Anderson, who finished his rookie season without a single sack.  There’s better depth on the DL this year thanks to the free agent signings of Rashad Moore and Kendall Morehead.  Atlanta’s linebacking corps is the strength of the defense, with Keith Brooking still playing at a pro bowl level and Michael Boley not far behind.
 
But in a pass happy league, the Falcons secondary is as green as it gets.  Cornerback Chris Houston is in his second year in the league, as is the projected starter on the other side, David Irons.  The draft brought third rounder Chevis Jackson from LSU into the mix, while free agent addition Von Hutchins provides depth.  12 year veteran Lawyer Malloy has clearly lost a step — they’ll need some production out of another free agent acquisition, safety Eric Coleman from the Jets.
 
The NFC South gets a significant break from the schedule makers this year, facing two of the weaker divisions in the league: the NFC North and AFC West.  Between those two divisions there is only one team lined at more than eight wins – the other seven squads are projected to be at or below .500 from the betting marketplace.  The Falcons have a slate chock full of winnable home games including Detroit, Kansas City and Chicago to open the season.  Yes, we can project this team to be among the weaker NFL entrants in 2008, but I don’t expect to bet them Under 4.5 wins with their relatively easy schedule.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on football this season, be sure to check out Ted’s 2008 Football Predictions!

2008 Arizona Cardinals NFL Football Predictions
For the last few seasons Arizona has been a popular ‘sleeper’ choice for pundits and handicappers alike, a team poised to break out of their perennial doldrums.  The good news for Cardinals supporters is that Arizona certainly showed signs of improvement last year in head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s first year on the job.  Arizona notched eight wins in 2007, with their 8-8 record their best mark since 1998! 
 
The bad news, of course, is that we’re talking about a franchise with one winning season in the last 23 years.  In addition, six of their eight losses last year came by a touchdown or less – a couple of key fourth quarter plays in their favor and the Cardinals could have earned a rare postseason berth.
 
The Cardinals scored 404 points last year, second most in franchise history.  Much of their offensive success came with the aging Kurt Warner behind center.  Warner, now 37 years old, threw 27 touchdown passes in his eleven games as the starter in ’07, and his 62.3 completion percentage was his personal best since the Rams Super Bowl season back in 2001.
 
Warner is not the starter heading into 2008, and there’s no QB controversy afoot either.  Matt Leinart, now entering his third year in the NFL after a storied collegiate career at USC, is firmly entrenched as the #1 guy.  Leinart has tremendous natural abilities, and showed some flashes of brilliance as a rookie in 2006.  Last year, however, Leinart had a terrible 61.9 QB rating in five games before going down with a season ending injury.  After some offseason controversy involving attractive young women, a hot tub and a Youtube video, reports out of Arizona have Leinart working hard and showing progress in minicamps.  The face of the franchise is that of a potential future star quarterback.
 
Coach Whisenhunt brought offensive line coach Russ Grimm with him from Pittsburgh when he took the job.  Grimm’s line showed great progress last year, and the entire starting unit returns intact for 2008, giving the unit potential to develop into an elite blocking corps.  Just as importantly, Arizona has dramatically improved their OL depth, giving them the ability to withstand an injury or two and still protect their quarterback and open up holes for the running game.
 
That running game looks like the weak link on offense heading into the season.  Edgerrin James is on the downside of his career, now in his tenth year, well past the shelf life of most NFL backs.  James is still a solid ‘grinder’, but he no longer has the explosiveness that he once enjoyed.  In two full seasons with the Cardinals, Edge has only four runs longer than 20 yards, none longer than 27 yards.  Former #2 pick JJ Arrington used to have that elusive explosiveness, but he’s been a bust at the pro level, with his career high 3.3 yards per carry set back in his rookie year of 2005 under former head coach Denny Green.
 
Despite the loss of former #1 Bryant Johnson in free agency, the Cardinals receiving corps looks excellent.  Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both sport pro bowl talent, as good a duo as you’ll find in the NFL.  Rookie Early Doucet out of LSU could step in as the third receiver.  Tight end Leonard Pope has caught only 39 passes in his first two seasons in the league, but he has the potential for a breakout season in ’08.
 
Well respected defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast is one breakout season away from getting a head coaching gig somewhere in the league.  This could be that season, with pro bowl performers on the defensive line, the linebacking corps and in the secondary. 
 
There are certainly no question marks in terms of Arizona’s defensive ends, with Darnell Dockett earning a pro bowl berth last year.  He’s joined by a deep group including starter Antonio Smith, rookie second rounder Calais Campbell (Miami-FL), rookie fourth rounder Kenny Iwebema (Iowa) and free agent acquisition Travis LaBoy (Tennessee). 
 
Questions persist about the Cardinals ability to stop the run between the tackles, a problem at times for them last year.  Nose tackles Alan Branch and Gabe Watson form an All-Michigan Wolverines duo in the middle, but neither has lived up to expectations in their first few years in the league. With linebackers Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor both coming off injury plagued seasons last year and on the wrong side of 30, pro bowl caliber LB Karlos Dansby will need to step up once again.  Free agent acquisition Clark Haggans (Pittsburgh) should help provide quality depth.
 
Arizona spent their #1 pick on Dominique Rogers-Cromartie (Tennessee State), shoring up a good looking secondary.  Starting corners Rod Hood and Eric Green are solid; safety Adrian Wilson is a pro bowler, and former #1 pick Antrel Rolle is making the move to free safety where he should excel.  If the pass rush is there (and it should be), this unit is not going to get burned very often.
 
The Cardinals have a fairly tough schedule after facing a relatively weak slate last year.  And, the Cardinals have a long history of tantalizing their supporters in training camp, then disappointing those supporters once the regular season starts.  Given those two factors, my enthusiasm for Arizona is modest and tempered – they’ll need to prove their mettle on the field, not on paper over the hot summer months.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on the NFL this season, be sure to check out Ted’s 2008 NFL Predictions!

2008 Seattle Seahawks NFL Football Predictions
The Seahawks have entered the final season of head coach Mike Holmgren’s ten year reign.  Heir apparent Jim Mora Jr will be coaching the secondary this season before his ascension to the head coach following Holmgren’s retirement at the end of the campaign.  Seattle has enjoyed tremendous success under Holmgren: five division titles, and their only trip to the Super Bowl.  The Seahawks have won at least nine games in each of the last five seasons, a model of consistency in this topsy-turvy league.
 
On paper, Seattle looks like a contender in the NFC once again.  Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is a pro bowler in his prime.  Hasselbeck has been running Holmgren’s version of the West Coast offense for seven full seasons.  He set franchise records for completions, attempts and yards last year, while setting a career high with 28 touchdown passes.
 
Questions persist about the Seahawks skill position talent level.  Former pro bowler Shaun Alexander was released in the offseason, leaving the primary running duties to offseason acquisitions Julius Jones (Dallas) and TJ Duckett (Detroit).  Alexander hadn’t had a good season since the Super Bowl campaign of ‘06, but both Jones and Duckett have question marks surrounding their respective abilities and desire.
 
It’s a similar story at wide receiver, a unit that could be considered a strength or a weakness, depending on your perspective.  I tend to think that the latter is the case.  Deion Branch is coming off a career threatening knee ligament injury.  Bobby Engram is 35 years old, but he is coming off a career best 95 catch season.  Nate Burleson has been inconsistent at best during his five years in the NFL.  Second round draft choice John Carlton out of Notre Dame will probably be limited as a pass catcher in his rookie season.  This is a unit that could step up, or they could underachieve; not an easy prediction to make here in July.
 
Seattle rushed for 101 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry last year, the worst statistical numbers of the Holmgren era.  The primary culprit was a mediocre offensive line that couldn’t punch open holes for the running backs.  Perennial pro-bowl left tackle Walter Jones is 34 years old, coming off serious shoulder surgery.  New offensive line coach Mike Solari will need to get a dramatic improvement from free agent signee Mike Wahle, who struggled with Carolina last season.  The Seahawks have seen a steady decline from this unit over the last two years, a decline that must be reversed in ’08 if Holmgren is going to go out on a winning note.
 
Seattle’s defense was their strength in 2007, and the stop unit looks very solid again heading into 2008.  Seattle ranked fourth in the NFL in sacks last year, with pass rushing force Patrick Kerney and Darryl Tapp leading the way.  First round draft choice Lawrence Jackson (USC) will provide additional pressure.  The question mark here is the play of the defensive tackles against the run, an area where Seattle struggled at times last year that has not been addressed through the draft or free agency.
 
The Seahawks back seven is loaded with top notch talent.  Linebackers Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Leroy Hill make a stellar unit together, but there is not much depth behind them at all – LB injuries will really hurt this team, if they occur.  Cornerback Marcus Trufant is another defensive pro bowler, anchoring a solid secondary.  Remember, the Seahawks held five different opponents to six points or less last year, winning and covering every one of those games.
 
Seattle’s special teams look like a serious problem area.  They lost kicker Josh Brown to free agency, as well as leading tackler and special teams captain Niko Koutouvides.  Long snapper Jeff Robinson retired.  Punter Ryan Plackemeier struggled in his sophomore campaign after a promising rookie season.  There’s no clear punt/kick return specialist on the roster, and a kicker battle between the aging, ineffective Olindo Mare and rookie seventh round draft choice Brandon Coutu.  Don’t be surprised if special teams mishaps cost this team a crucial game or two throughout the course of the season.
 
The schedule makers were not kind to many of these NFC West teams in 2008, and Seattle is no exception.  The Seahawks must make four separate East Coast trips for 1 PM start games in the first ten weeks of the season.  They went 1-4 SU and ATS in East Coast early start games last year, a perennial problem for Holmgren’s crew.  Throw in the fact that all three of their divisional rivals look better on paper now than they did last year and Holmgren’s final season at the helm might not end on a positive note.  Let’s not forget this key fact – Seattle’s 10-6 record last year came against the single easiest schedule in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to my weekly power ratings.  The 2008 schedule does not look quite as easy….

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on football this season, be sure to check out Ted’s 2008 Football Predictions!

2008 San Francisco 49ers NFL Football Predictions
The 49ers were one of the ‘hyped’ teams coming into 2007, as many pundits and observers expected a breakthrough campaign for San Francisco after a decade of mediocrity.  Those pundits were dead wrong as the Niners lost eight straight following their 2-0 start, stumbling to a 5-11 record.  In the offseason, head coach Mike Nolan became the first coach in 49ers history to keep his job following three consecutive losing seasons.  Clearly, Nolan must guide his team to a winning record in ’08, or he’ll be looking for work next winter.
 
The Niners biggest question marks lie on the offensive side of the football.  Nolan brought in Mike Martz from Detroit as the new offensive coordinator, the 49ers sixth new coordinator in the last six seasons.  That’s not exactly continuity on offense, to put it mildly.  Martz failed miserably with his pass happy offense in Detroit, despite a solid quarterback and a bevy of former Top 10 draft picks at wide receiver.  The culprit?  Detroit’s porous offensive line, which didn’t open up holes for any sort of running game nor protect Jon Kitna from getting hit early and often in the pocket.
 
San Francisco’s offensive line looks equally bad, if not worse, than the Lions units from recent seasons.  Four of the five projected starters are in new positions or a new starter, with center Eric Heitmann the only returning starter at the same position he occupied last year.  Future Hall of Famer Larry Allen is expected to retire; last year’s rookie sensation Joe Staley is moving from right tackle to left tackle.  Guard David Bass is coming off surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle.  This unit has more questions than answers right now.
 
Alex Smith was the #1 overall draft choice out of Utah four years ago.  At the time, many observers questioned whether he was a product of Urban Meyer’s system as opposed to being a legitimate #1.  Smith’s critics have had plenty of ammunition in his first three seasons in the league – at no point has he looked like a solid NFL quarterback, let alone a former #1 pick.  Learning another new offense and playing behind another spotty offensive line doesn’t give this observer much confidence in Smith’s ability to have a breakout season in ’08.
 
The Niners made a couple of big free agent splashes at wide receiver, picking up 35 year old Issac Bruce from St Louis and former first rounder Bryant Johnson from Arizona.  Even if those two step up with stellar seasons, the Niners will need increased production from last year’s free agent signee Ashley Lelie and former first rounder Vernon Davis at tight end.  Running back Frank Gore has battled injuries and fumble problems throughout his three previous seasons in the league.
 
The Niners defensive line is a problem area as well.  Coordinator Greg Manusky, in his second year on the job, will rely heavily on free agent addition Justin Smith from Cincinnati, and this year’s #1 draft choice Kentwan Balmer from North Carolina.  Those two will need to replace Bryant Young (retirement) and Marquis Douglas (free agent to Tampa Bay).  Manusky finally has the personnel in place to run his preferred 3-4 defense, making the play of the defensive line that much more important in 2008.
 
San Fran looks good with their back seven defensively.  Last year’s defensive rookie of the year, Patrick Willis, has plenty of talent surrounding him, including LB Manny Lawson (coming off a torn ACL) and pro-bowl caliber cornerbacks Nate Clements, Shawntae Spencer and Walt Harris.  Remember, the Niners lost four games last year in which they allowed less than three touchdowns – it wasn’t the fault of the defense that their season went down the tubes.  Rather, the 32nd ranked offense that produced less than 14 points per game was the primary cause of the 49ers malaise. 
 
San Francisco is lined with an Over/Under of 6.5 wins for the 2008 season.  Their schedule doesn’t make the Over an easy bet to make.  The 49ers play a whopping six different road games at 1:00PM Eastern starting time, including a brutal stretch of four early start games on the road in a five week span in November and December.  Tough games outside of division include a home game against New England and visits to play the Saints, Cowboys and Giants.  But their home slate is relatively manageable, with ‘winable’ games against Arizona, Detroit, St Louis, the New York Jets and Washington.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on NFL football this season, be sure to check out Ted’s Expert NFL Football Predictions!

2008 St. Louis Rams NFL Football Predictions
The Rams haven’t enjoyed a winning season since 2003, but last year was a clear step down for a franchise that has fallen on hard times.  2007 was an injury plagued disaster from start to finish, with a dozen players finishing the season on injured reserve.  The offensive line was particularly hard hit by the injury bug, with three starters basically missing the entire season.
 
Scott Linehan is most assuredly on the hot seat in his third season at the helm.  Linehan did what most coaches on the hot seat do in the offseason – he threw his assistants under the bus.  The Rams will have six new assistant coaches this year, including new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who enjoyed success in previous stints at Kansas City and Washington.  Saunders has an extensive playbook – this is not an easy offense to learn, nor to execute, and we can expect some growing pains from the Rams early in the season.
 
Quarterback Marc Bulger signed a $65 million contract before the start of the ’07 campaign.  Battered and bruised operating behind that injury devastated offensive line, Bulger finished the season with a QB rating of 70.3.  To put that number in perspective, Tom Brady had a QB rating of 117.2.  Bulger ranked just behind Buffalo rookie QB Trent Edwards, and just ahead of Kansas City rookie QB Brodie Croyle.  For $65 million, the Rams certainly didn’t get a good return on their investment last year.
 
The Rams have had great skill position talent for the better part of the last decade.  That is no longer the case.  Running back Stephen Jackson is coming off an injury plagued season of his own, in which he scored only five rushing touchdowns.  Wide receiver Tory Holt, now 32 years old, has recurring knee problems that are likely to limit his effectiveness for the rest of his NFL career.  On the other side from Holt, the Rams have nothing but question marks.  The underachieving Drew Bennett and second round draft choice Donnie Avery out of Houston will be expected to fill in Issac Bruce’s big shoes, both on the field and in the locker room, something I wouldn’t count on them being able to do.
 
The biggest single issue for the Rams this year is their offensive line.  All the guys that were hurt last year are coming back, including pro bowl caliber left tackle Orlando Pace.  Certainly, from a depth perspective, this OL is head and shoulders ahead of where they were last year.  But with a new offense and no continuity whatsoever from last year to this year in terms of personnel, this offensive line has to be considered a major question mark.
 
The Rams finished 21st in the NFL in total yardage allowed defensively last season and 31st in points allowed.  The defense finished with a respectable 27 takeaways, but the team still finished -10 in turnover margin, ranked 28th in the NFL in that key statistical category.  Coordinator Jim Haslett prides himself on an aggressive approach, but the Rams personnel is ill suited for his style.  And frankly, dating back to his tenure with New Orleans, Haslett hasn’t put together a top notch defense this decade, another coach barely hanging on to his job.
 
There’s a little to like about the 2008 Rams defense, most notably on the defensive line.  Last year’s #1 pick Adam Carriker and this year’s #1, Chris Long out of Virginia, make an excellent inside/outside duo on what had been a very porous unit.  But the Rams desperately need a rebound season from former pass rushing force Leonard Little, who notched only one sack last year.
 
The back seven defensively is mediocre at best.  Yes, linebacker Will Witherspoon had a breakout season in ’07, but that doesn’t guarantee similar results in ’08.  The secondary lacks a ballhawking cornerback or a playmaking safety.  To be generous, I’d give the Rams linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties a ‘C’ grade heading into the season if everyone stays healthy and performs to expectations.
 
I do like the pickup of kicker Josh Brown in free agency from divisional rival Seattle.  Free agent pickup Jacob Bell from Tennessee should provide depth for the offensive line and could end up as a starting guard.  That’s about it for impact free agent acquisitions; Long and Avery are the only two rookies likely to see extensive playing time.  In other words, this year’s roster looks a lot like last year’s roster, minus all the injuries.
 
St Louis has a positively brutal schedule to open up the season, terrible news for any head coach on the hot seat, trying desperately to keep his veterans playing hard.  The Rams play all four NFC East teams in the first half of the season (Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins, one of the toughest divisions in football), along with the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots.  They’ll be underdogs in six of their first seven games, so barring an upset, we’re looking at a 1-6 start, maybe 2-5.  That could be all it takes to send this team down the tubes once again, sealing Linehan’s fate and sending him back to a coordinator job.

2008 Mountain West Conference College Football Predictions courtesy of Alex Smart. A Professional Football Handicapper at Touthouse.com. If you are betting on college football this season, don’t miss out on Alex Smart’s Expert College Football Predictions!

Despite the Mountain West not being a BCS conference, they are a cut above most of the non-BCSers and are better than those at the lower end of the BCS leagues.

Gradually, the Mountain West is getting more respect. Fan base is swelling due to the exposure the conference receives, especially on the East Coast compared to the other non-BCS leagues. In fact it could be argued that the MWC has greater exposure on the Atlantic side than does the Big-12 or ACC.

The BCS conferences have had to sit up and take notice to how well the MWC has represented itself when it goes up against the big boys. Just last year alone Air Force handed Notre Dame a spanking, BYU beat UCLA, Wyoming defeated Virginia to go with Utah’s destruction of UCLA and victory over Louisville. In all, the Mountain West went 9-10 against BCS schools and given that two of the MWC worst teams in Colorado State and San Diego State accounted for five of the losses, it really was a commendable effort. The season was rounded off nicely when the five Mountain West teams went 4-1 in bowl games. Compare those numbers to the Pac 10, who registered an 8-5 record against non-conference BCS schools, and removing USC from the equation, the Pac-10 went just an even 5-5.

The following Non-Conference Games that Mountain West opponents we had better take seriously are:
UCLA at BYU, Sept. 13
Utah at Michigan, Aug. 30
TCU at Oklahoma, Sept. 27
Texas A&M at New Mexico, Sept. 6
Oregon State at Utah, Oct. 2

Conference Series Trends:

AIR FORCE/UTAH Series: UNDERDOG is 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in L11 games.

BYU/AIR FORCE series: Since 1983, the Cougars are 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS in this series including 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS in this situation priced as a favorite of -9 or more points.

NEW MEXICO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE Series: New Mexico are 12-3 ATS their last 15 games vs. San Diego State.

UTAH vs. BYU Series: This is a series that has seen the underdog cover 17 of 23 since 1982, including 14-2 ATS when getting +11 or less points.

KEY MOUNTAIN WEST Conference Trend: Road underdogs are 8-0 ATS before a road game @ Wyoming.

AIR FORCE
Air Force like all service academies, always have to retool year by year. This year the Falcons have to find replacements for QB Shaun Carney, RB/WR Chad Hall who was the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year together with three All-Mountain West defensive performers. Not only that, but the entire offensive backfield has to be replaced along with six starters in the defensive back eight. Talking of defense, Troy Calhoun was able to transform the defense from abysmal to solid in his first year thanks in a large part to switching to a 3-4 scheme. Given all the replacements needed, it might take a few games before the new group start to produce.

Air Force are 11-23 ATS on the conference road and matched up against a foe that enters off a SU win, including 6-15 ATS in this set with the Falcons coming off a conference affair.

BYU
I predict that BYU’s ‘Quest for Perfection’ will come unstuck. If it’s not broken before the final week (November 22nd), then the Cougars better look out, as they travel to one really upset opponent in Utah that has some serious revenge. Utah had the Cougars under control all game long before they gave up a 49-yard pass on fourth-and-18 which led to BYU’s game-winning score with 38 seconds to play. Two years ago, John Beck came up with a heart-stopping, last-second scramble/touchdown pass to beat the Utes. This year’s encounter should be on everyone’s must watch list. That aside, BYU’s offense led the Mountain West in every major category except for rushing offense. And once again this year there will be plenty of passing and lots of points as nine starters return. On defense only three starters return to the 3-4 D that finished 10th in the nation and ninth in points allowed. Even with all of the replacements, the front seven should be tremendous as the BYU coaching staff know how to plug the holes. Bronco Mendenhall has everything in place, and the schedule works out well with UCLA and New Mexico coming to Provo.

BYU are 8-20 SU and 8-17-1 ATS as a non-conference guest, including 3-12 ATS in this set coming off a straight up win.
BYU is 11-4 O/U off a win against a conference rival since 2005.

COLORADO STATE
Steve Fairchild will bring in a new and fresh attitude to the team. A slew of new starters will make it a losing year, but given last season’s ending two-game winning streak might just be something to build on. The offense will surprise very few, if any, with a big, beefy, veteran line, and the powerful 1-2 rushing punch. The Rams are just going flat out to try to flatten defenses. The defense wasn’t awful last season, but it was ranked among the worst in the Mountain West. The line isn’t anything special and has to be far more physical, but given the line backing corps is set with all three starters returning, as are the two safeties, the bits are in place to be more successful.

Colorado State are 9-3 ATS as home dogs.
Colorado State is 22-35-1 ATS in their last 58 games, including 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games.

NEW MEXICO
New Mexico has enough pieces in place to have a successful season, but not enough to get past BYU, TCU and Utah. Last year the offense did just enough to get nine wins despite not putting many points on the board. Defensive coordinator Osia Lewis has left for UTEP and Troy Reffett takes over, but there won’t be much of a change in styles as this is still head coach Rocky Long’s defense with the 3-3-5 system looking to attack and blitz and be disruptive. The system and the defense will be better than the players, and there will be production as the season goes on, but it could be a long first month.

New Mexico is 19-9-2 ATS their last 30 road games, including 8-2 ATS when playing off a conference game.

SAN DIEGO STATE
The loss of QB Kevin O’Connell will be a huge loss and with little experience at the RB and WR positions, the offense is going to struggle to put points on the board with any regularity and will be a work in progress as the season moves along. The defense lived up to expectations last year finishing 115th in the nation in yards allowed while giving up 34.42 points per game. The potential is there for some improvement as nine starters return and the front four will have to be stronger against the run.

San Diego State is 15-36-1 ATS their last 52 games after rushing for 100 yards or less.

TCU
They often say that you need to take one step back to move two steps forward and that is exactly what I expect from TCU’s offense this year. The offense comes together off a solid running game and this year could be devastating if the running backs (Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner) can remain healthy. The defense finished 15th in the nation and tenth in scoring defense and this year’s D should be rock-solid given that 4-2-5 should be fantastic against the run.

TCU are 43-8 SU and 33-16 ATS at Amon G. Carter Stadium since 1999, including a more recent 9-2 ATS when off consecutive SU losses.

UNLV
Nine starters return to the Rebel Shotgun Spread which should be able to produce on a consistent basis. The line is big and strong while the receiving corps boasts one of the Mountain West’s best 1-2 punches. The one big question mark hovering over the offense is who will prove to be the most consistent at quarterback. On the defensive side of the ball, UNLV as always have plenty of good athletes and there’s more talented depth than usual. But the size of the back seven could be a big problem for new defensive coordinator Dennis Therrell.

UNLV are 1-19 SU and 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.

UTAH
Utah’s season was in turmoil after just two weeks last year as QB Brian Johnson and RB Matt Asiata were lost in first game of the season and top receiver Brent Casteel’s services were finished in the second game. This year all the pieces are in place to explode. The defense became a killer last year as the season went on and this will be the Mountain West’s best D this year as the secondary welcomes back four starters in a five-spot rotation that led the nation in pass efficiency defense last year.

Utah is 15-0-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an .800 or less opponent.

WYOMING
Five starters return up front which should help the running game, but let’s face it, the offense failed to improve as the weeks went past last year and struggled mightily against the better defenses. The Mountain West’s most inefficient passing attack needs more production. On defense it was the same old story it has been in past seasons . Three straight years, the Cowboy defense started strong and died at the end. On the positive side the pieces are in place to improve upon previous campaigns.

Wyoming are 8-20 ATS off a SU and ATS loss.

Summary
While everyone assumes it’ll be BYU and their “Quest For Perfection that run out convincing winners of the Mountain West, don’t forget Utah who are loaded, TCU will be nasty again, and New Mexico are better equipped than most give them credit for. From top to bottom the conference has improved and given the returning talent and experience, everything is in place to make even more noise.

Don’t fall into the trap that the BCS conferences will run rough shod over Mountain West opposition. Your wallet will be lighter taking that attitude.

2008 SEC Conference College Football Predictions Courtesy of Alex Smart. A Professional College Football Handicapper at Touthouse.com. Purchase his Expert College Football Predictions Today!

The Southeastern Conference has provided the last two National Champions and 2008 promises to be real exciting. No other conference has as many quality coaches, Alabama’s Nick Saban, Florida’s Urban Meyer, LSU’s Les Miles, South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier, Tennessee’s Phillip Fulmer. No other conference has the strength in depth of quality teams and no other conference has as many heated rivalries.

The SEC should provide two tight division races this season that will go down to the wire. And once again the conference promises to have at least two teams finish in the top ten, with one of the teams going on to compete for the national title.

The SEC is extending itself this year with the big boys playing some huge non-conference games, but the best from the conference will still come down to the league schedule.

Top Ten SEC Games
1. Florida vs. Georgia, Nov. 1
2. LSU at Auburn, Sept. 20
3. Florida at Tennessee, Sept. 20
4. LSU at Florida, Oct. 11
5. Georgia at LSU, Oct. 25
6. Tennessee at Georgia, Oct. 11
7. Georgia at Auburn, Nov. 15
8. Auburn at Alabama, Nov. 29
9. Alabama at LSU, Nov. 8
10. Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27

Top Ten Non-Conference Games
1. Auburn at West Virginia, Oct. 23
2. Georgia at Arizona State, Sept. 20
3. Alabama vs. Clemson, Aug. 30
4. Florida at Florida State, Nov. 29
5. Miami at Florida, Sept. 6
6. Georgia Tech at Georgia, Nov. 29
7. South Carolina at Clemson, Nov. 29
8. Arkansas at Texas, Sept. 13
9. Tennessee at UCLA, Sept. 1
10. Kentucky at Louisville, Aug. 30

East Division

Florida - Have a realistic chance of going unbeaten and walking away with a National Title. Getting Ole Miss from the West is offset by the home date against LSU, while the non-conference schedule is easier than it appears on paper. In SEC play it’s all about the East, and if the Gators can get by their early showdown at Tennessee it all opens up with South Carolina and Kentucky going to The Swamp.

15-4 ATS in non-conference action coming off a strong offensive performance in which they scored 55 points or more.
1-9 ATS as a road favorite off a win.

Georgia - The Dawgs chances of being a contender could be decided by as early as week four with road trips to South Carolina and Arizona State and a home date against two-time defending MAC champion Central Michigan. The inter division draw couldn’t be any worse than facing Alabama and going on the road to play LSU and Auburn with both Tiger games book ending a brutal four-week stretch of at LSU, Florida, at Kentucky, at Auburn. If Georgia can get through their schedule with just one blemish, the Dawgs will truly have earned a spot in the national title game.

23-42-3 ATS at home in Athens coming off a SU and ATS win. In this situation off a point spread win of more than 10 points, the Bulldogs crash to 5-22-3 ATS.
4-26 O/U since 2000 off a SU win of 21 or more points.

Kentucky - The Wildcats aren’t going to be as good as last year and given their joke of a non-conference schedule, they will start the season either 4-0 or 3-1. This may just offer some line value in the early conference games. Avoiding LSU and Auburn from the West is a plus, but given Kentucky’s back-heavy slate getting the Gators, Vols, and Georgia from October 25th on, an 8-4 season would represent a commendable effort.

20-36-1 ATS as a SEC dog of +7 or less.

South Carolina - It doesn’t get any simpler than this … win early or it could be an ugly year. The Gamecocks see three of their last five dates with LSU and Tennessee at home and Florida and Clemson on the road. Outside of the trip to The Swamp, the SEC road slate is a relative breeze going to Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky.

20-13-2 ATS under head coach Spurrier, including 10-3 ATS on the road.
9-25 O/U on the road since 2001.

Tennessee - The Vols season hinges on how they come out of their top-heavy early schedule. Trips to UCLA, Auburn and Georgia and a home date with Florida fill two-thirds of Tennessee’s first six games. Going unbeaten through the remainder of the schedule, Mississippi State, Alabama, at South Carolina, Wyoming, at Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish determines if a bowl invitation comes their way.

14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS coming off a double-digit SU loss.
2-10 ATS (L12) as home favorites of -7 or less points.

Vanderbilt - Vandy are a long way from being competitive in the SEC East. Road trips to Ole Miss and Mississippi State from the West is a nice break in the first half of the season. But Vanderbilt’s problem’s come in the back half of the year with no gimme November home games playing Florida and Tennessee to go with two tough road games at Kentucky and Wake Forest.

21-35-1 ATS at home vs. an opponent that enters off a straight up loss.

West Division

Alabama - On paper at least, Alabama will have a winning season and end their season with a bowl game. That is mainly due to a powder puff non-conference schedule against Tulane, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky. Throw in home dates against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State and you see what I mean. Nasty games vs. Clemson (played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta), at Arkansas, at Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU and hosting Auburn will prevent the Crimson Tide going on a big streak of wins.

30-13-1 ATS as dogs off a SU win.
2-14-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a conference foe.

Arkansas - A .500 season or one game above or below beckons for Bobby Petrino’s troops in his first season. Starting off against Western Illinois and UL Monroe will give the Razorbacks time to prepare for the road trip to Texas and the SEC opener against Alabama. Life gets tougher with the first two dates in October, hosting Florida and visiting Auburn. After those two the schedule lightens up with just two tough tilts against South Carolina in Columbia and a season ending game against LSU in Little Rock.

12-4 ATS at home coming off a straight up conference loss.

Auburn - The Tigers have plenty of big-time games, but luckily, almost all of them are at home. Going on the road to face West Virginia in a mid-season Thursday night game is the only road date problem until the season-ender at Alabama. LSU, Tennessee and Georgia are all good enough to win the SEC title, but they’re all coming to Jordan-Hare. A successful season beckons for Auburn as they catch a favorable schedule with it all ending with a top two finish in the West and a bowl invitation. One must doff their cap to Auburn for going to Morgantown to face the Mountaineers in the last weekend in October.

14-4 ATS their last 18 as an underdog, including a more recent 8-1 ATS.
9-22 O/U as underdogs, including 3-10 O/U in their last 13 on the road.

LSU - Division aspirations may be decided as early as week four with a visit to Auburn. The defending national champions don’t get much of a break from the SEC scheduling gods having to travel to Florida and South Carolina before hosting Georgia in Death Valley. Get through those three, and the end of October, with just one loss, and the national title could be there for the taking with a manageable November facing Tulane, Alabama, Ole Miss and a road trip to Arkansas.

12-7-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 1988 season.
3-13 ATS as home favorites of -14.5 to -21 points.

Ole Miss - Depending on the outcome in week two when the Rebels travel to Winston-Salem (Wake Forest), Houston Nutt’s boys could just be 4-0 or 3-1. Then comes a road trip to Florida, before the defining part of the Rebels schedule with South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State coming to Oxford. With only five road games, this could be the year the Rebels turn into an SEC factor again.

1-16-1 ATS at home vs. opponents off a DD loss.
6-17 O/U off a home loss.

Mississippi State - Overall the Bulldogs schedule isn’t that bad getting what can be best described as a ‘walk in the park’ of a non-conference schedule and dates with Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East. Three killer road dates, at Georgia Tech, at LSU, and at Tennessee, all before the end of October will makes life hard to improve on last season’s breakthrough campaign.

6-12 ATS coming off two or more straight up wins vs. an opponent off a DD los

CONFERENCE TREND: SEC conference games played in the first three weeks of the season are 8-20-1 O/U since 2004 and are presently on a 4-14 O/U run.

CONFERENCE SERIES TRENDS:

ALABAMA vs. AUBURN: The underdog is 18-9 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 ATS off a loss as a favorite.

AUBURN vs. LSU: 0-7 O/U in the last 7 meetings since 2000. The average combined points is only 29.3 points in those last 7 meetings.

AUBURN vs. GEORGIA: Auburn are 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge against Georgia.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA: The Cocktail Party rivalry has been a very unpleasant experience for Georgia who has lost 15 of 17, covering a mere five times. The favorite is 1-4-1 ATS the last six years. Since 2002 five games have been decided by a touchdown or less. The straight winner is 21-3-1 ATS in the last quarter century.

LSU vs. ALABAMA: The host is 5-10 SU and 2-12 ATS since 1992.

LSU vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bayou Bengals are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. NOTE: Those eight wins came by an average of 30.6 points per game.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA: The UNDER is 11-0 in the L11 games since 1996. The average OU line in this series has been 44.5 in those eleven meetings. And the average points scored in those games is an EXTREMELY low 27.8 points.

VANDERBILT vs. ALABAMA: The Commodores are 0-13 SU but 10-3 ATS in L13 games.

VANDERBILT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA: South Carolina is 13-2 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 meetings against the Commodores.

VANDERBILT vs. GEORGIA: The Commodores are 1-11-1 SU and 4-9 ATS at home versus Georgia.

2008 Arena Football Weekend Playoff Previews
Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional AFL Football Handicapper, Featured on Touthouse.com
Click Here to Buy Ted’s AFL Betting Picks

Underdogs have ruled the roost in the Arena Football League playoffs in recent years, and the Wild Card weekend of the playoffs in 2008 confirmed the prevailing current trend. In 2006, the Chicago Rush were road underdogs in four straight playoff games on their way to winning the Arena Bowl. Last year, another regular season also-ran got hot in the playoffs, as 7-9 Columbus pulled off three consecutive road upsets before finally falling short in the Arena Bowl against San Jose. 
 
This past week, we saw road underdogs go 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU in the opening round of the playoffs. Will we see more of the same this week? The betting marketplace doesn’t seem to think so. All four home teams are favored by more than a touchdown following their bye week here in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with the four road underdogs still searching for respect from bettors. Let’s break down the games one by one, focusing on the key pointspread and totals issues for each squad. Just like last weekend, all four games will be nationally televised on ESPN or ESPN2.
 
Colorado Crush @ San Jose Sabercats (SJ -11, O/U 111.5)
Saturday, July 5th - Arena Football Odds
Colorado has some real momentum right now, winning and covering three straight, including two strong performances on the road. The Crush have a solid recent history of postseason success. John Elway’s squad won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005. Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose. And despite a rash of injuries at wide receiver, the Crush defense appears to be good enough to give them a chance in this game as well.
 
San Jose dominated the lone regular season meeting between these two teams, winning 59-42 while averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt in sharp contrast to the Crush’s 5.9 yards per attempt.  And the Sabercats defense remains an elite level unit, returning every starter from last year’s Arena Bowl championship team. Few home fields in the AFL really matter, but San Jose enjoys a tremendous advantage at the HP Pavilion, 16-2 SU (12-6 ATS) over the past two seasons. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Mark Grieb led the league with 100 touchdown passes this season while ranking third in the AFL in completion percentage. 
 
New York Dragons @ Philadelphia Soul (Philly -9.5, O/U 110) - Saturday, July 5th
New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at a 9-3-1 clip in their last thirteen games. The Dragons scored touchdowns on eleven consecutive drives against an elite level defense in their upset win at Dallas last week, with quarterback Aaron Garcia showing no ill effects from the hard hit that he took against Philly in his regular season finale. Garcia has Hall of Fame credentials, but he’s never guided his team to the Arena Bowl. The Dragons enjoyed tremendous special teams play in their win over the Desperados as well. Kicker Steve Azar had a pair of onside kicks recovered by New York, while going a perfect 11-11 on extra point tries and booting three touchbacks.
 
On paper, Philadelphia looks like the team to beat in this year’s playoffs. The Soul cruised through the regular season with an AFL best 13-3 record, thanks to the play of the league’s top rated quarterback, Matt D’Orazio, who has filled in admirably for the injured Tony Graziani for most of the season. D’Orazio guided Chicago to an Arena Bowl title two years ago. It’s surely worth noting that the Soul’s three losses can all be easily explained away. Their loss to Cleveland came in a major flat spot on a short week following their biggest game of the year against Dallas. Their loss to Georgia was an aberration – the Soul led by three scores in the fourth quarter but collapsed in the final few minutes. And their loss to KC as a 17 point favorite was a matter of a disinterested team suffering through some mid-season injuries. The Soul are healthy now, and they beat New York 59-30 and 63-42 in their two regular season meetings.
 
Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush (Chicago -9.5, O/U 113) - Sunday, July 6th
Grand Rapids has the ‘feel’ of a team like Columbus from last year, who came out of nowhere to reach the Arena Bowl. The Rampage were not good for most of the regular season, losing eight out of nine during one particularly ugly mid-season stretch. But the Rampage played their best football when it counted the most, reeling off three consecutive wins to close out the regular season, then winning outright as a road underdog at Arizona last week in a rare stellar defensive effort (a huge goal line stand essentially winning the game) from a stop unit that allowed 59+ on eleven different occasions in the 16 game regular season. First year head coach Steve Thonn and first year starting quarterback James MacPherson seem to be clicking together right now as Grand Rapids has averaged more than 70 points per game during their current four game winning streak.
 
Chicago looked like the class of the American Conference for much of the season, but the Rush really tailed off late.  First year starter Russ Michna finished fourth in the league in quarterback efficiency, but the offense was sluggish down the stretch as the Rush were held to 52 points or less four times in their final five games. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they lost All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo to a season ending injury prior to Week 16.  Chicago went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home this year, but they didn’t have an easy time in their most recent home meeting with the Rampage, needing a huge fourth quarter rally to beat Grand Rapids by a single field goal.
 
Cleveland Gladiators @ Georgia Force (Georgia -7.5, O/U 114) - Monday, July 7th
The Gladiators didn’t look like a team that hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003 in their opening round win over Orlando, showing great poise following a rough start to pull out the three point victory. The Gladiators have not been the most consistent team in the AFL this year (to put it mildly) – they haven’t won back-2-back games since mid-May. This offense is loaded. Quarterback Raymond Philyaw finished the regular season as the #2 rated quarterback in the AFL. Wide receiver Otis Amey made the All-AFL squad with 50 touchdown receptions while Robert Redd led the team in receiving yards and fullback Marlon Jackson also earned All-AFL honors. But the Gladiators defense has been a problem area all season, and could be a problem again here.
 
Georgia has not been a ‘blowout’ team this year, with half of their ten wins coming by a touchdown or less.  In six of those ten wins, Georgia found themselves tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, a testament to the coaching acumen of Doug Plank (my choice for AFL Coach of the Year honors) and the fortitude of quarterback Chris Griesen, who ranked among the league’s elite signal callers for the second consecutive season.  Georgia went 14-2 during the regular season last year, then blew out Philadelphia in their first playoff game, but were knocked off at home by the upstart Destroyers in the National Conference Championship Game right here at Phillips Arena. A solid win here should wipe some of the bad taste from that defeat away, and put the Force in position to return to the Arena Bowl for the first time since 2005.

2008 Arena Football Betting Playoffs Previews
Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An Official Touthouse.com Sports Handicapper

The Arena Football playoffs begin this weekend, with four national TV games on ESPN and ESPN2.  We’ll see four more national TV games next weekend as the top two seeds in each conference come off their bye weeks with home games.  The two conference championship games are the following weekend, followed by Arena Bowl XXII in New Orleans following a two week ‘Super Bowl’ type layoff.  Each week between now and the Arena Bowl, I’ll be previewing the upcoming playoff matchups.
 
Friday, June 27th
New York @ Dallas (Dallas -7, O/U 103)
 
Dallas won 13 games in 2006, but were bounced out of the playoffs at home by Orlando following their bye week.  They went 15-1 last year, but suffered a devastating playoff loss at home to Columbus, also following their bye.  Dallas is coming off another exceptional regular season, but the Desperados know full well that regular season success does not directly translate to postseason excellence.  It’s surely worth noting that this year, Dallas didn’t win the division and won’t have a bye prior to the start of the playoffs.
 
Dallas played like a team that wasn’t particularly concerned with their regular season results down the stretch of the regular season.  The Desperados went just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in their final six games of the campaign.  To make matters worse, the Desperados have suffered through a rash of injuries in recent weeks, with electric kick returner Josh Bush the latest to go down, although star Ironman Will Pettis is expected to return to the lineup this week following a two game concussion induced absence.
 
Dallas has dominated this series in recent years, winning six straight meetings against the Dragons.  Both meetings this year were tight games, each decided by exactly two points, with New York covering the spread as an underdog in both contests.  Last year, Dallas won the two meetings 60-7 and 67-13, with their defense absolutely dominating the Dragons in both games.  The Dragons offense hasn’t exactly clicked against the Desperados defense this year either.  New York scored just 31 and 49 points in the two defeats, held to a very modest 11 touchdowns on 21 meaningful drives in those games.
 
New York suffered a major injury of their own in their season ending loss to Philadelphia last weekend when leading receiver Jason Willis dislocated his ankle.  Willis caught 135 passes and 30 touchdowns this year, leaving veteran quarterback Aaron Garcia without his top target against a defense that they’ve struggled against.  That being said, all the pressure is on the home team coming off two consecutive playoff collapses, and New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at an 8-3-1 clip in their last dozen games.  It’s surely worth noting that the last four games have all flown Under the total, three of those Unders coming by more than five touchdowns!
 
Saturday, June 28th
Colorado @ Utah (Utah -6.5, O/U 119)
 
Utah’s second half turnaround was one of the biggest stories of the season in the AFL.  The Blaze started out the campaign with an 0-9 mark finding new ways to lose each week – a defensive meltdown, an untimely turnover, a special teams miscue.  But head coach Danny White coaxed an amazing turnaround, as Utah went 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in their final seven games to not only reach the playoffs but actually earn a first round home game in the weak American Conference.
 
The Blaze are led by the #2 quarterback in passing yardage and touchdowns this year, Joe Germaine (#3 in QB rating).  Receivers Huey Whittaker, JJ McKelvey and Aaron Boone became the first receiving trio to each catch 100 passes in the same season, all three ranking in the top eight in the AFL in receiving yards.  Even the Blaze defense, which was a disaster area back in March and April, has come on strong down the stretch.
 
Colorado, too, has some momentum heading into the playoffs after winning and covering their last two regular season games following a dismal stretch of seven defeats in an eight game span.  Unlike Danny White’s Blaze, who have been bounced out of the playoffs in the first round in each of the last two seasons, Colorado has a recent history of postseason success.  John Elway’s Crush won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005.  Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose.
 
But the depleted Crush receiving corps took another hit last weekend.  Already missing star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens with a torn ACL, speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt went on injured reserve with concussion problems.  Dutton, the former Arena Bowl MVP, ranked dead last among QB’s with at least 220 passing attempts in quarterback rating, and he tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown.  The Crush lost their only regular season meeting at Utah 71-36.
 
Check back on Monday as I preview the two Monday Night games.

Buick Open Tournament Preview Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper featured on Touthouse.com
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Click Here for Current Buick Open Betting Odds

Located in Southeastern Michigan 80 miles North of Detroit, Warwick Hills is an old traditional golf course with stately hardwoods and a beautifully manicured landscape. While the fairways are tree-lined and can present problems to wayward drives, the landing areas are fairly generous and the greens are oversized with subtle slopes. Many birdies await, as the winning score the past four years is minus (-15), -24, -24 and 23-UNDER par. Since 1990, the average score of the winner at the Buick Open is 19-under par. Since the 2000 event, 94% of the players that completed 72 holes have finished ‘under’ par. Length has its advantages at Warwick Hills, but shotmakers and players that can make ‘birdies in bunches’ and continue to be aggressive will contend. Brian Bateman, ranked 408th in the world, pulled a surprise victory last year when he birdied the final hole Sunday to finish 15-under par. However, Bateman has been way ‘off course’ this year while missing the cut in nine of 16 starts.

Warwick Hills is a 7,127-yard par 72 layout that features many straightaway holes with reachable par 5’s and some short par 4’s. The 2007 tournament yielded 1,786 birdies, which was the second highest tournament total on Tour. In fact, no lead is safe on this golf course, as over the past five years, Warwick Hills has ranked in the top-4 in birdies allowed for the week among all PGA Tour courses. The par-5 13th hole yielded 18 eagles during the 2007 tournament to rank as the easiest stroke average hole while the par-4 15th is annually the most difficult hole on the course.

Jim Furyk’s dominating performances at Warwick Hills would seem to justify accuracy over power. His last six appearances read 2, T6, T6, Win, T10, T2. He’s finished at least 16-under par in five of those tournaments, and has a streak of 37-consecutive rounds under par at Warwick Hills. However, power usually takes precedence for most players in this event who want to go really low. Following a week of rain in the area and a forecast of scattered showers (30-50%), the course should play ‘soft’ again and scoring should be plentiful.

Buick became the first corporate sponsor of the PGA Tour in 1958, and to this day remains the largest and longest standing corporate sponsor as they celebrate a 50-year partnership with the PGA Tour. However, without lead spokesman Tiger Woods and other top-ranked pros in the field, another first-time winner will have a greater ‘shot’ at breaking through.  Just one top-10 player and only two of the top-25 in the world rankings tee-it-up this week at the Buick Open, but 11 total past champions will take their ‘shot’ for another title including Jim Furyk, Justin Leonard, Woody Austin, Kenny Perry, Scott Verplank, Rocco Mediate and Billy Mayfair. See the player performance table below to ‘chart’ some of your strategy this week, and get on my ‘bag’ as we continue to ‘shoot’ for more profits in head-to-head match-up wagering.

Here is the latest update on defending champion Brian Bateman. During his visit to the interview room at the Buick Open media center, Bateman disclosed that he has been playing all season with a torn labrum in his left shoulder, an injury that is eventually going to require surgery — probably sooner rather than later for the 35-year-old Louisiana native. “It hurts on every shot,” Bateman said Tuesday afternoon. “It’s caused me to shorten my swing, which has taken me out of my natural swing. My mechanics have changed. Because of that, my ball-striking has not been very good. I thought in the last few weeks that it was time to just have the surgery and then call it a year. But I really wanted to play here and really wanted to try and defend. You don’t have many opportunities to defend out here and I thought I owed it to the Buick and to the people here at Warwick. As far as surgery, it might be in the next few weeks. I may try to play through a couple of the majors and maybe the FedEx Cup and take the fall off.”

Fairway’s Followers won’t be taking any weeks off.  We’ll ‘fire’ away again this week with a 20* Big Drive play (4-1 this year) and ’shoot’ for more profits and ‘green’.