Article Courtesy of Ben Burns, A Professional Baseball Handicapping Expert featured on Touthouse.com
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True “ace” pitchers in baseball are the most coveted (and rarest) of commodities. World series champions almost always have a dominant starter on the staff, sometimes even two of them. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series, the playoff MVPs were Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Who needs offense with a dominant mound one-two punch like that?

When the Cardinals won the 2004 NL pennant and advanced to the World Series, they had a bad bit of luck in the postseason, as ace Chris Carpenter was lost. St. Louis was without their ‘top guy’ in the World Series, while the AL champion Red Sox had a pair of aces in Schilling and Pedro Martinez. The result was a 4-game sweep. Last October, the Red Sox sported another ace in Josh Beckett, riding his golden right arm to another title. Without him, the Indians probably would have won their first World Series since 1948.

“Workhorse” aces have such a huge impact on a team. They are called stoppers for a reason – halting any losing streak every 5 days. They also rest the bullpen, regularly going 7-8 innings. And in the playoffs, there’s arguably nothing more valuable than a stopper, especially in a Game 7.

while we have yet to reach the All Star Break, health issues to stoppers are already making some of this season’s pennant races particularly interesting to watch. In Chicago, almost everything has been going well for the first place Cubs, at least when they play at Wrigley. Fans are already talking about the team’s first World Series title since 1908. However, those talks were put on hold this week, when ace Carlos Zambrano went on the shelf needing an MRI.

Without Zambrano (8-3) the Cubs just got swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. Left-hander Sean Marshall comes up from Class AAA Iowa to take Zambrano’s turn. You can already see what a domino effect that can have on a staff. Suddenly the No. 2 starter is forced to become a No. 1, and so on. And instead of Zambrano the Cubs have to use a kid up from AAA. The good news is the Cubs still have the best record in the majors. The worrisome news is that the Cubs returned home smarting from a 2-4 trip.

Arizona has a similar concern. They are worried about ace Brandon Webb, who is 2-3 since winning his first nine starts. Webb lasted just 3 1/3 innings as the A’s pounded him 15-1. He allowed a season-high seven earned runs and nine hits. He struck out just three and walked five. Those aren’t the normal numbers of a guy who won the 2006 NL Cy Young Award.

The NL West-leading Diamondbacks were outscored by a combined 35-7 during a three-game skid. For all their woes, the Diamondbacks remain 4½ games ahead of Los Angeles in the feeble NL West. Arizona is 7-14 since May 26 but have added a game to its lead in that span. They may be able to survive in this bad division, but will have vastly diminished October hopes if Webb is not 100%.

When the Cardinals advanced to the 2006 World Series, they got there by upsetting the Mets in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Mets’ starter for Game 7 was Oliver Perez and his 3-13 record. It didn’t help manager Willie Randolph’s resume to handle the rotation so a kid 3-13 starts the biggest game of the year. It was no surprise Randolph was recently fired with moves like that, plus the Mets’ historic collapse last September and underachieving 2008 start. He certainly could have used a true stopper the last three years.

A potentially crushing blow to the red-hot Yankees was ace Ching Ming Wang going out for 6 weeks with an ankle injury. They already lack pitching depth and Wang is invaluable. Having an ace has been a huge part of the success of the Rays (Scott Kazmir), while the Angels have several outstanding starters that kept them afloat while the offense struggled.

The Indians have struggled despite having a pair of aces on C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Of course, Carmona’s injury hasn’t helped matters. He’ll be back soon (not soon enough for fans of the Tribe!) and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them make a second half run with those two. The other side of the coin is that Sabathia is in his ‘walk year’ and could be dealt – likely to a contending team that needs an ace. That could also help tip the pennant balance. Remember back in 2003 the Marlins had a terrible first three months, then roared back to win the World Series. How did they do it? A rotation of Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny. How’s that for a trio of aces!

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Sports Handicappers featured on Touthouse.com
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With the AFL entering the final week of the regular season, very little has been determined when it comes to the playoffs. Eight teams are in contention for the six postseason berths still available, three in each conference. And each of the two conference titles is up for grabs, with homefield edge throughout the playoffs still to be determined this weekend. Amazingly, all eight games on tap for the final weekend of the regular season hold some playoff implications – there isn’t a meaningless season finale on the board.

I’ll be going through the playoff scenarios for each of those eight games right here. It is important to note the starting times for the eight games (six on Saturday, two on Sunday), because the outcome of early games could have a dramatic effect on the intensity (or lack thereof) in later games. Most Arena Football games take between two and a half and three hours to complete

Columbus Destroyers (8-7) at Cleveland Gladiators (3-12)
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET
Columbus is out of the playoffs, after reaching the Arena Bowl last year. Cleveland’s playoff scenario is very simple – a win and they’re in, a loss and they’ll probably be out. The Gladiators will get a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Cleveland Gladiators win + New York Dragons loss + New Orleans VooDoo loss.

Grand Rapids Rampage (5-10) at New Orleans VooDoo (8-7)
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET
This is the only game where both teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Grand Rapids can get in with a win, or an LA loss at Tampa Bay. They’ll earn a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Grand Rapids Rampage win + Utah Blaze loss + Colorado Crush loss. New Orleans is in with a win, or they can still get in with a Cleveland loss if they lose the game themselves. The VooDoo get a home playoff game next weekend if they win and either New York or Cleveland wins as well.

Los Angeles Avengers (5-10) at Tampa Bay Storm (7-8)
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET
Tampa Bay had the best record within the ultra-competitive Southern Division, but they have no chance to reach the postseason after last week’s loss at San Jose. LA stayed alive in the playoff race with a win over Kansas City last week. The Avengers need a win here AND a loss from one of these three teams: Grand Rapids, Colorado or Utah in order to earn a playoff berth. They’ll get a first round home game if they win and both Colorado and Grand Rapids lose.

Kansas City Brigade (3-12) at Colorado Crush (5-10)
Saturday, 8:00 pm ET
Kansas City is out. Colorado gets in to the playoffs with a win or a loss by either Grand Rapids or LA. If the Crush win and Utah loses, Colorado will host a first round playoff game next weekend.

Utah Blaze (5-10) at Arizona Rattlers (8-7)
Saturday, 10:00 pm ET
Only two of the six teams that have already clinched playoff spots know their status heading into this weekend. Arizona is one of those two teams, having clinched the #3 seed in the American Conference. They’ll get a home playoff game next weekend, then hit the highway should they survive and advance to the following week. This game against Utah is absolutely meaningless for the Rattlers. Utah, on the other hand, is in need of a win here to clinch their spot. The Blaze can also earn a playoff spot even in defeat if either Colorado or Grand Rapids goes down to defeat as well.

Georgia Force (10-5) at San Jose SaberCats (10-5)
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET
Georgia joins Arizona as the only two teams that know their playoff status completely heading into Week 17. The Force won the Southern Division last week earning them a first round bye and a second round home game. They’ll be the #2 seed in the National Conference, unable to catch Philly or Dallas for the #1 seed. This game is completely meaningless for the Force. San Jose has already clinched the Western Division title and a first round playoff bye. But the Sabercats are locked in a tight battle with Chicago for the #1 seed in the American Conference, needing a win and a Rush loss to clinch that spot.

Philadelphia Soul (12-3) at New York Dragons (8-7)
Sunday, 3:00 pm ET
Philly can clinch the Eastern Division title and home field advantage throughout the National Conference playoffs with a win here or a Dallas loss. If the Soul lose and Dallas wins, Philly will be relegated to the #3 seed in the National Conference, losing out on their bye week and forced into action with a home game next weekend to open up the playoffs. New York needs a win just as much, if not more. If the Dragons can win, they’re in – it’s just that simple. If they don’t win here, New York can still back into the playoffs with a loss from either Cleveland or New Orleans. They’ll earn a first round home game with a win and a New Orleans loss; otherwise, they’ll be hitting the highway for the opening round.

Dallas Desperados (12-3) at Chicago Rush (10-5)
Sunday, 4:00 pm ET
Chicago will know their situation by kickoff. If San Jose won on Saturday night, Chicago will need a win to clinch the #1 seed in the American Conference. If San Jose lost on Saturday night, Chicago has already clinched that #1 seed, and this game becomes a meaningless season finale prior to their bye week. Dallas will be either the #1 seed or the #3 seed in the National Conference. The Desperados can earn that #1 seed if they win here and Philly loses to New York. If the Soul beat the Dragons, this game is meaningless for Dallas, but they won’t know the outcome of that game before they take the field.

Orlando Predators (9-7) vs. No One
The Predators have a bye for Week 17. They currently sit with the #4 seed in the National Conference, but could be out of the playoffs entirely depending on the action this weekend. Orlando needs at least one of the other three teams in contention to lose: Cleveland, New York or New Orleans. If all three win, the Predators are out.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Arena Football Betting Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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Favorite bettors in the AFL suffered an absolute disaster this past weekend. While the favorites were 7-1 straight up, with only the underdog Colorado Crush winning outright, the underdogs were a perfect 8-0 against the spread. All eight games were decided in the final minute, with five of the eight outcomes not determined until the final ten seconds of the game. Five games were determined after a failed on-side kick, two by a failed fourth down pass and one by a last second missed field goal. If you were looking for excitement and competitive games, the AFL certainly suited your needs this past weekend.

It’s extremely rare to see favorites win seven of eight games in straight up fashion, but lose all eight against the spread. All seven games where the favorite won but didn’t cover were decided by three points or less. In a league where the winning team covers the spread at an 80%+ clip, the results this past weekend were a significant change from the long term history of the league.

As the regular season ends this weekend, there are eight teams battling for six playoff spots – three seeds available for the taking in each conference. In the American Conference four teams with 5-10 records (the Utah Blaze, LA Avengers, Grand Rapids Rampage and Colorado Crush) will battle for the three playoff spots, with one of the four teams earning a home playoff game. In league history, there has never been a team with losing records that has hosted a playoff game. One of the four teams listed above will host a playoff game next week with (at best) a 6-10 record. Since 1995, there had been just five teams with losing records to reach the post-season but there will be three that earn that dubious achievement in 2008.

One of the biggest in-season turnarounds this year came from the Georgia Force. Georgia wrapped up a third division title in four years this past weekend with a nailbiting win over Chicago. Remember, Georgia went 14-2 last year, clinching their division title midseason. This year, however, after losing two thirds of their superstar receiving trio when Derek Lee when to Columbus and Chris Jackson went to Philadelphia in the offseason, the Force stumbled out the gate, losing five of their first eight.

Georgia head coach Doug Plank: “I’ve never had so many people question my ability to coach before. It was a difficult time for us, but we just had to keep doing what we felt was right to put our team in a position to win.” Plank’s patience paid off, as Georgia reeled off seven straight wins to win the division, winning outright as underdogs on four separate occasions during that span. This week’s game at San Jose is meaningless for the Force, but Plank is reportedly not going to be resting starters with a bye week on tap. “Everyone will play, I won’t sacrifice this momentum.”

The Chicago Rush have tanked down the stretch, losing three of their last four, including the loss at Georgia this past weekend. Their lone win during this span came in a near-upset by lowly Kansas City as the Rush needed to rally from a double digit fourth quarter deficit as two touchdown favorites. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they’ve suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the football. All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo ruptured his right biceps tendon, placed on injured reserve prior to last week’s game. His backup, Ryan Dennard started against Georgia but left the game with an injury after the first series forcing LB Liam Ezekiel into extensive action.

Alfonzo’s injury is a devastating one. Head coach Mike Hohensee: “It’s a tremendous loss for the team. And I know nobody is more upset right now than ‘Zo. He is a great competitor and no one in the league plays the Jack linebacker position the way he does. However, we believe we have enough talent and depth to overcome his loss and make a run at another championship.”

The playoff scenario going into the final two weeks of the 2008 regular season for the Colorado Crush was simple: win twice and you’re in. Colorado had suffered a devastating injury blow of their own, when star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens torn his ACL, joining another speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt on injured reserve. On Monday night the Crush took care of part one of their playoff scenario, blowing most of a four touchdown lead at Arizona but hanging on for the win.

With co-owner John Elway making headlines this past week by discussing the possibility of folding the franchise and/or completely tearing apart the team in the offseason, the Crush needed a strong performance and they got one. Head coach Mike Dailey: “We have had trouble getting bounces to go our way this season, but tonight we got a couple balls on turnovers that we were able to convert into points.” Defensive back Rashad Floyd, talking about their mindset against Kansas City this week: “We were in a do or die position and we were able to get the job done (last week).”

I don’t know why head coaches lie to the media and their own players, but it cost us a bet last week. Columbus Destroyers head coach Doug Kay told his team and the local beat writer that he would be giving backup quarterback Justin Zwick “extensive” playing time. With the Destroyers trailing by two scores and the crowd chanting for the former Ohio State hero (“We Want Zwick”), Kay gave Zwick exactly one play under center for the entire game. Zwick: “I thought I was going to play a lot more.”

Kay made no apologies for his outright lie: “We felt that Matt (Nagy) had to control the football game based on the way the situation was going. Justin Zwick wasn’t put in the game to control the game. He was put in the game so we could get some idea (of him in game conditions) and so that he could get some idea.” I guess one play from scrimmage was enough for the 3-12 Destroyers to evaluate Zwick’s capabilities. We’ll have to see whether he gets more playing time this week in the Destroyers season finale at Cleveland.

I’ll be back with a second AFL article before the weekend, outlining each team’s respective playoff scenarios for Week 17.

Travelers Golf Tournament Preview Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper featured on Touthouse.com
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As its name implies, the TPC at River Highlands sits atop a ridge overlooking the Connecticut River, just 14 miles South of Hartford and 90 minutes from Boston. The par 70 layout features fairway’s that meander through the gorgeous rolling estate with the signature TPC mounding and natural amphitheaters providing unobstructed views. Holes number 15-17 play around a four-acre lake, known as the ‘Golden Triangle’. Banked by large hills, the closing stretch of holes offer great fan viewing options for the exciting finish.  The 296-yard 15th is a fun, driveable risk/reward par 4 followed by hole 16, a dramatic par 3 over water. Holes no. 4 and 17 ranked as two of the top 50 toughest holes on Tour last year, and the closing two holes are two of the strongest par 4’s that require accurate drives with water running along the entire right side of the signature hole no. 17.

TPC River Highlands is the third shortest golf course on Tour at 6,820 yards. Yet the past seven winners have all ranked in the top-15 in driving distance, allowing them to attack the pins with short irons and strong wedge play getting them in position for shorter birdie putts. The past three winners have shot 15, 14 and 14-under par, so ‘shooting’ for birdies should be a welcome relief for those players that competed in the U.S. Open last week.

While the argument can be made that players that competed at the U.S. Open may not be as sharp mentally to compete the following week, some pretty strong results show that solid play at the U.S. Open often carries over the week following the Major Championship. Since 2000, the winners of the event following the U.S. Open have five top-25 finishes at the U.S. Open. The following players are listed in match-up betting this week and come off a solid performance at the U.S. Open. Check out their course results below and consider them in your match-up wagering this week.

Hunter Mahan – Defending Travelers champ finished T18 at the U.S. Open and is an excellent driver of the golf ball. He currently ranks 4th on Tour in Greens-in-Regulation (GIR – 68%), but putting problems (69th of 79 at U.S. Open) have led to sub-par results by his standards this season. His win last year at the TPC River Highlands was part of a solid stretch of 9-straight top-25 finishes, and the less severe and sloped greens should be to his liking again this week.

DJ Trahan – Finished 4th at the U.S. Open and also 4th in all-around stats at the U.S. Open. No top-20 finishes at TPC River Highlands however, but a solid ball striker and ranks 10th on Tour in driving. Short iron play holding him back from better results, and prefer one of his opponents in a pair of listed match-ups. Still, confidence soaring after his high U.S. Open finish which also earned him a trip to next year’s Masters.

Stewart Cink – Another solid finish for Cink at the U.S. Open (T14), and he’s now finished top-25 ten times in fourteen events this season including six top-10’s (tied for first on Tour with Tiger). His game is sharp and overall stats place him near the top in many categories as he’s enjoying his best year on Tour. Only a victory is lacking, and Cink won at TPC River Highlands in 1997 and has four top-10’s in ten starts at the Travelers Championship.

Carl Pettersson – Fresh off a T6 at the U.S. Open and a final round 68, the Swede often excels on shot-maker courses. Additional top-10’s at Byron Nelson and Memorial and T33 at Colonial has big Carl in good form and feeling confident knowing he’s qualified for next year’s U.S. Open while also earning an invitation to the Master’s with his top-8 finish last week.

Jerry Kelly – The University of Hartford graduate is short off the tee but accurate, and he’s found River Highlands to his liking with four top-15 finishes. Jerry has been very inconsistent this year while missing the cut in 8 of 17 events including last week’s U.S. Open. Possible ‘bounce back’ this week, but prefer his opponent in the match-up this week, as Woody Austin is a solid ball striker and iron player with a past victory here and three top-10’s. Woody’s woes continue to be putting and scoring however.

With the Boston Celtics having just won the NBA Title, the area fans should again be wild and supportive for the largest sporting event in New England with nearly 300,000 fans in attendance.

Article Courtesy of Ben Burns Consulting. Ben Burns is a featured baseball handicapping expert at Touthouse.com
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I’ve done very well riding Ben’s NBA playoff picks but last night’s loss on the Lakers was certainly a tough one. Thankfully, I also played his baseball picks. So, while I’m still fuming about Kobe and co. “wetting the bed,” at least I’m a little richer than I was before the game started. All the same, losing a game in whick your team led by 20 in the second half is always tough! Anyway, enough about the NBA for now, let’s talk some baseball…

Injuries in baseball need to be examined with a careful eye. Playing every day over the course of 162 games, injuries are inevitable. The question is: How much impact do they have?

Some teams are capable of replacing a player with a decent guy off the bench, maybe not as good, but someone who can step in and perform reasonably well. Other times, a player’s talents are unique and they aren’t easily replaced. And if it’s a key spot in the lineup, in can have consequences.

The Dodgers have told shortstop Rafael Furcal to cease all baseball activities, raising the possibility his recovery from a back injury could extend well into July. He has a bulging disk in his back. He’s a unique contributor to the offense, a rare offensive catalyst atop the lineup, someone who gets on base and steal. Sometimes just the threat of a steal can even affect the opposing pitcher, throwing him off balance as he pays too much attention to the speedy leadoff hitter on first.

The Dodgers have missed Furcal’s presence atop the lineup, on a 6-14 run. Furcal, 30, is eligible for free agency this fall. He is batting .366, and has scored 34 runs in 32 games. The Dodgers first tried to replace Furcal with rookie Chin-lung Hu, who hit .159 before they sent him to triple-A Las Vegas. The latest replacement, Angel Berroa, is hitting .167, with four strikeouts in 12 at-bats. Sports bettor need to note that the Dodgers have also been an under machine, on a 15-7 run under the total.

The Dodgers have targeted June 25 for Nomar Garciaparra to take over at shortstop. Garciaparra is on a minor league rehabilitation assignment, recovering from a calf injury, and cannot be activated from the disabled list before June 25.

A team devastated by injuries is the Atlanta Braves. John Smoltz is done, while Tom Glavine is getting an MRI of his sore pitching elbow. He said the elbow hurt for about a month and worsened his past two starts. Veteran lefty Mike Hampton has been on the DL all season and hasn’t pitched in a major league game in 34 months.

Rafael Soriano has lingering elbow soreness that has hampered the Braves bullpen for too long now. Soriano was sidelined most of spring training with elbow soreness and has missed 45 games while on the disabled list for most of April and May with what was diagnosed as elbow tendinitis.

The Braves hope to have left-hander Mike Gonzalez back soon from the DL, where he’s finishing his recovery from Tommy John surgery. With Smoltz out for the season after shoulder surgery, the Braves have no other experienced closers in their organization.

And that’s just the pitching staff! Chipper Jones is ailing with a strained groin, even though he is leading majors with a .420 batting average. The Braves are 0-5 this season without Jones in the lineup. The Braves have been good at home, but a disaster away, with a miserable 7-21 road record, the worst in baseball.

Injuries have been a problem for the stumbling Mets. Moises Alou sounds like somebody who is headed back to the disabled list, after an MRI exam revealed an aggravation to Alou’s left calf muscle. With Ryan Church (post-concussion syndrome) already on the DL, manager Willie Randolph was asked if he had the feeling the Mets wouldn’t get all their pieces together this season. ‘I’ve had that feeling since I’ve been here,’ Randolph said. ‘It’s been very rare that we’ve had our whole lineup.’ Bettors beware: They’ve lost 7 of 10 games, despite being favored in EVERY one!

The Red Sox have some potential power problems on offense. David Ortiz has been out since June 1st and Manny Ramirez has a sore right hamstring. Ramirez hasn’t started in left field since belting his 500th career home run in Baltimore on May 31 and made nine consecutive starts at designated hitter. Boston is on a 9-5-1 run under the total, winning more with pitching and defense. Interleague play is going now, with no DH in the National League park, a situation worth watching for Ramirez and Boston.

Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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Since the 2000 PGA season, the U.S. Open has ranked as the toughest tournament in golf with a scoring average of 74.34. The past three Opens at Oakmont, Winged Foot and Pinehurst were all par 70 courses that had a field scoring average of 74.16 to 75.70. The philosophy of the United States Golf Association (USGA) is to make the U.S. Open the most rigorous, yet fair examination of golf skills while testing all forms of shot-making. So the USGA likes to set up the golf course to not only test the top player’s skill level with difficult course conditions, but also test players’ mental makeup and survival skills. Efficiency, endurance and energy no doubt play a large part in a player’s ability to excel and execute in a pressure-packed environment.

The 108th U.S. Open at Torrey Pines will play to a par of 71 and be set up at 7,643 yards – the longest layout in U.S. Open history by nearly 380 yards. The South Course will be a tremendous challenge, and if the wind picks up off the Pacific Ocean, the short-to-moderate hitters will be at an even greater disadvantage. You must come into the greens high and soft to have a chance to attack the pins; many of which will be tucked on the tiered greens. The ability to hit long, high iron shots will be a big asset. The ‘power’ players should prevail this week.

I’ll be traveling to San Diego to attend the opening round action Thursday at Torrey Pines. With nearly 50,000 fans and media members in attendance, I anticipate only a few good looks at Tiger on the tee and Phil’s famous flop shots, as those two will be paired together alongside Adam Scott for the opening two rounds. Regardless of my experience and close-up look at the PGA players and Torrey Pines, you can bet I’ll be firing for the flag and “green” with more match-up winners. Following last week’s 20* Big Drive winner on Justin Leonard, who won the Stanford St. Jude event outright, Fairway’s Followers (and myself) have now cashed four straight 20* Big Drive winners (4-0) this year while chipping-in more “green” with over +9 units of profit for the season. With another 20* Big Drive likely this week (16-5 on those Big Bombers the last 3+ years), you’d be wise to join Fairway’s Foursome for more winners this week. Be sure to check out my blog at sportsmemo.com for additional U.S. Open coverage.

Fairway’s Favorites

Phil Mickelson – Injured entering last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, Mickelson is a definite favorite on his home course at Torrey Pines, where he has had plenty of past success (3 wins) at the Buick Invitational. Despite the redesign by Rees Jones in 2001 that took away some of Phil’s familiarity to the course, the added length for the U.S. Open will only separate Mickelson from most other players while his short game, scrambling and putting, rate among the game’s best. He leads the Tour in scoring average (69.48) and is No. 2 in birdie average and all-around ranking. Mickelson’s driving accuracy is the only potential negative, but he’s top-10 in Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) and his course knowledge and past U.S. Open success and experience (4 runner-up finishes) will have him in contention Sunday with huge crowd support in his favor.

Sergio Garcia – Anyone that saw Sergio shoot his way to victory at the PLAYERS Championship saw an awesome display of tee-to-green play. He led the field in driving accuracy and GIR with exceptional ball striking throughout the week. While his putting is still a bit problematic, his stroke and confidence is improving on the greens. He was solid with the putter last week at the TPC Southwind, while finishing tied for 4th place and just 1-stroke back of the winner Justin Leonard. Sergio struggled mightily at the last two U.S. Opens while missing the cut in each event. However, he finished 3rd in 2005 and 4th in 2002, and the rough will not be as severe, nor will the greens be as fast or as sloped as the past two Open Championships this year. Garcia’s game is on course and his length, ball striking and ability to hit greens (GIR) should serve him well this week.

Stewart Cink – The 2008 season is shaping up to be Cink’s best on Tour. All that is missing is a victory, and he has the game and mental make-up to be a factor come Sunday. Cink has enough length (290+) to allow his solid iron skills to succeed. He’s 4th on Tour in GIR, although if he has a weakness with his iron game it’s from 180+ yards and out. Cink has six top-10s this season, including a T3 at the Masters and played in the final group with Woods at this year’s Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines, finishing 3rd. He’s contended in past U.S. Opens, and could contend for a major breakthrough this week.

Padraig Harrington – The Irishman and British Open Champion has the length, putting and scrambling game to be a factor at Torrey Pines, and like Garcia, will welcome the wind if it begins to blow at higher speeds. He leads the Tour in putts per round and birdie average, and is No. 2 in scoring. His game has been on course this year with four top-5 finishes, including 3rd last week at the TPC Southwind. And while Harrington lacks course experience like the other “Fairway Favorites”, in my mind, Padraig can perform and persevere along the Pacific.

Contenders

Tiger Woods – World’s No. 1 player returns to competition for the first time since his knee surgery in April. Despite six victories on this course at the Buick Invitational and the big betting favorite, I can’t make a solid recommendation for Woods to win this week. Too much to overcome, not just physically as he tries to make the shots and maintain his touch around the greens over four grueling days, but mentally he must hold up in one of the most grueling environments in golf. Tough to fade Woods in any tournament, but even this week will be tough for Tiger.

Others to watch of interest –Vijay Singh, Robert Allenby

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), A Professional Sports Handicapper featured at Touthouse.com
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Only six NBA coaches have won a title in the last 21 years.  Phil Jackson has nine rings from his tenure in Chicago and LA.  Pat Riley has three rings from his time with the Lakers and Heat (more rings than that if we go back further).  Greg Popovich has four rings with San Antonio.  Chuck Daly earned two rings with the ‘Bad Boys’ Pistons teams of the early 90’s, and Larry Brown earned a single ring with Detroit in 2004.  Last, but not least, let’s not forget about Rudy Tomjanovich who notched a pair of titles with the Houston Rockets. 
 
Clearly, coaching matters at this time of the year.  When only six coaches have proven capable of winning the title in 21 years, it means something.  In a best-of-seven series, the better coaches will make quality adjustments from game to game, giving their team an enormous advantage.  And these elite level coaches also utilize the type of motivational techniques that get their team to bounce back from adversity and/or step up their level of play when their opponent is showing any kind of weakness.
 
If the NBA Finals comes down to coaching, Phil Jackson has a decided advantage over Doc Rivers in terms of championship level big game coaching experience.  Based on both team’s fortunes here in the postseason, Jackson’s experience has paid off in spades for LA, while Rivers relative lack of playoff coaching experience has resulted in choppy play from the Celtics.  And when we listen to the ‘miked’ coaches talking during timeouts, the disparity between Jackson and Rivers is even more apparent – Jackson is instructing his team in X’s and O’s; Rivers seems more like a cheerleader, trying to bolster his team’s often sagging confidence.
 
But, as we all know, coaching is only one piece of the equation – talent and desire certainly come in to play significantly.  Look no further than the Giants monumental upset of the Patriots in the Super Bowl this past year for a prime recent example – the G-men came to play, and they had enough talent and more than enough execution to steal the win.  And make no mistake about it – each of those six coaches listed above with at least one ring on their finger had championship caliber talent to work with.
 
Jordan and Pippen.  Isiah, Dumars, Rodman and Laimbeer.  Magic, Kareem and Worthy.  Shaq and Kobe.  Olajuwon  Cassell, Horry and Drexler.  What duo, trio or quartet will be the names that we remember from 2008?
 
The Lakers are the favorite in this series, despite the fact that Boston had the best regular season record, earning homecourt advantage for the Finals.  LA also has a decided advantage offensively against the Celtics.  Phil Jackson’s triangle offense has certainly proved it’s merit with nine championships.  LA was the fourth highest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging more than 108 points per game.  They ranked third in the league in shooting percentage and sixth in the league in both three point shooting percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.  Here in the playoffs, LA’s offense is ranked even higher, leading the league in both points scored and shooting percentage.
 
Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau has been known as one of the best defensive assistants in the NBA for the last two decades, most notably with Houston and New York.  In 17 years prior to his arrival in Boston, his teams finished in the Top 10 in team defense 14 times.  Make no mistake about it – Thibodeau’s coaching has been a real difference maker for the Celtics in 2008.  Boston was the single best team in the NBA in terms of defensive field goal percentage allowed; second in the league in terms of points allowed.  Here in the postseason, Boston still ranks #1 defensively, holding foes to 87 points per game on 42% shooting.
 
We’ve got a true marquee matchup between two elite franchises.  One team has coaching, offensive execution and three time champion Kobe Bryant on their side.  The other team has the homecourt edge, a trio of veteran superstars, and a defensive mentality that is second to none.  The Lakers are -160 to win the series at the opener, with Boston favored by three points in Game 1 at TD Banknorth Garden.  Check back for Part 2 of this NBA Finals preview for a personnel matchup breakdown between these two teams.

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It’s the battle of the Big Men for the NBA Finals! The No. 1 seeded Lakers took care of business, knocking off the defending champion Spurs in 5 games. Their frontcourt of 6-10 Lamar Odom and 7-foot Paul Gasol offers matchup problems on both ends of the floor. In the Game 5 clincher, a 100-92 LA victory, Gasol didn’t shoot well, just five for 15 with 12 points. But he had 19 rebounds, one shy of his career best, and took a whopping nine offensive rebounds, tying his career high. Throw in five assists and four blocked shots and Gasol was a force even on a bad shooting night. He also played defense, holding San Antonio star forward Tim Duncan to a subpar shooting night: 19 points on seven-for-19 shooting.

This season must seem like a dream for Gasol, playing with the miserable Memphis Grizzlies before a Feb. 1 trade to the Lakers. For the record, the trade was for Kwame Brown and Jarvis Crittendon, easily one of the most lopsided in NBA history. What was Memphis GM Chris Wallace thinking? He’s the same guy who ran the Celtics into the ground before Danny Ainge turned things around.

Anyway, the Lakers are playing their best basketball at the right time, riding a 16-3 SU, 14-3-1 ATS run into the Finals. Not having home court for the Finals against Boston or Detroit might not be that big of a deal: They will focus only on a split for the first two games in the East, then come home for three straight in LA. Picture the pressure on the Celtics or Pistons: They HAVE to win the first two games at home, or risk a huge uphill climb on the road.

Taking a look at the regular season matchups between the Lakers and the top two teams in the East, we find that the contests really don’t mean that much, other than the outstanding defense played. On November 23rd, the Lakers lost at Boston 107-94, as Kevin Garnett scored 21 points with 11 rebounds, and Kendrick Perkins had 21 and nine for Boston. The Celtics shot 50%, the Lakers 42%. Kobe Bryant was 9-of-21 shooting (30 points). The Lakers played with center Andrew Bynum, who is now on the shelf, but without Gasol, who was still in Memphis.

On December 30th in LA, the Celtics whipped the Lakers again, 110-91. Paul Pierce scored 33, Garnett had 22 points, 12 rebounds and six assists, and Ray Allen scored 19. The Lakers shot just 34%, but played without Gasol or Bynum. Bryant scored 22 for Los Angeles, going just 6-of-25 from the floor. Boston won the rebounding battle both games, but let’s say the Lakers are much better now.

The Lakers won 103-91 at home over Detroit back in November, even though they shot 38% (the Pistons shot 43%). Bryant wound up with 19 points and seven assists despite starting 2-for-14 shooting (he finished 6-of-18). But the Pistons were missing Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess, both of whom were hurt. The Pistons won the rematch, 90-89, on January 31st in another defensive game: Detroit shot .439%, the Lakers .426%. LA dressed just 11 players because of injuries, which is why Kobe had 39 points on 12-of-25 shooting. Bryant had an unusual triple-double, adding a career-high 11 turnovers and 10 rebounds to his scoring total. Don’t read too much into these meetings, as there were a lot of injuries and shorthanded benches. The Lakers play better when Kobe is passing and getting others involved, rather than taking all the shots. All four of the games were played with ferocious defense intensity, which isn’t surprising as they are outstanding defensively. Note that all five of the Spurs/Lakers games just played went under the total. In fact, the Lakers are now 10-5 under the total in the postseason. Matched up against one of the top two defenses in the league, the Finals should prove an extremely interesting and hard-fought affair.

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The biggest betting story in the AFL over the past few weeks has been the remarkable run of Unders, particularly in games with the highest totals on the board.  Seven of the eight games in Week 13 went Under the total, the lone exception (Orlando-Dallas) squeaking over by a single score.  Dallas was the only team in the league to eclipse the 60 point barrier, while ten different teams were held below 50.  Only one AFL quarterback threw for more than 300 yards last week, a season low.
 
The trend towards Unders has been particularly noticeable in the games expected to be higher scoring contests, with totals of 110 or higher.  In the last three weeks, games with these high totals have gone Under at a 12-2 clip.  The betting marketplace is adjusting on the fly, with only two games (San Jose @ Los Angeles and Utah @ Grand Rapids) totaled at higher than 110 this week, although Arizona-Chicago (109.5) and Tampa Bay-Georgia (108.5) aren’t far away.
 
Monday Night’s ESPN affair featured a pair of teams headed in opposite directions right now.  Three weeks ago, New Orleans was looking at a Southern Division championship and a first round playoff bye.  Now the VooDoo are locked in a serious battle just to earn a playoff spot, tied for sixth place in the ultra-competitive National Conference.  Head coach Mike Neu has seen his offense struggle mightily during their three game skid, held under 40 points in each of the losses.  Quarterback Danny Wimprine was able to guide his team to only a single touchdown after halftime on Monday Night, against a defense that had allowed 67 points the previous week against New York. 
 
Georgia, on the other hand, is streaking in a positive direction right now, winners of four straight.  The key to Georgia’s recent success has been the development of their offensive line.  Georgia has allowed only three sacks all season, holding their opponents sack-less nine times in their last ten games.  James Clark, Shane Grice, Ben Nowland and fullback Bruce McClure certainly aren’t household names, even among diehard AFL fans, but that quartet has allowed QB Chris Griesen to attempt his last 243 passes without a sack.  Griesen struggled early in the season, but his numbers of late remind many of his performance last year, when he led the league in quarterback efficiency.  During the Force’s four game winning streak, Griesen has thrown 24 touchdown passes with only two interceptions, completing at least 70% of his pass attempts in every ballgame.
 
This past weekend was full of upsets, with 2-9 Columbus knocking off 6-5 New York and 2-10 Utah pulling off the shocker against 9-2 Chicago.  But none of the upsets was bigger than 2-9 Kansas City’s surprise win in Philadelphia as 17.5 point underdogs against the 10-2 Soul.  Philly became only the fourth team in AFL history to start 9-0 after their impressive Monday Night domination of Dallas, but they are just 1-3 SU since, 0-4 ATS, losing those four games by a combined 57 points against the spread.  The last two defeats were decided on the final play of the game, losses by a combined eight points.  It’s worth noting that of the three previous teams to start 9-0 or better, all three reached the Arena Bowl.
 
Another front line contender for the Arena Bowl championship, the Dallas Desperados, bounced back nicely from their own huge upset loss at home to Arizona the previous week, taking out their frustrations on the Orlando Predators in the Jungle.  Tied 28-28 at halftime, Dallas stepped up their defensive intensity after the break, forcing five Predators stops in the second half alone, including a pair of safeties and a net recovery on a kickoff.  Head coach Will McClay: “IF we get a lead, now we’re able to hunt.  The pass rushers are able to go; we can mix up some coverages.  That’s kind of the recipe that you’ve got to have.  Desperados QB Clint Dolezel suffered a flare up of his old hip injury that could give him trouble in the weeks to go.  Dolezel : “I’ve got a little bone-on-bone in there, and it just got irritated really bad.”

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It’s amazing what some quality pitching atop the rotation can do. I’m not talking about 4-5 terrific starters, just one or two guys to anchor the rotation. Two good starters can have a domino effect on the rest of the rotation and bullpen. A pair of starters going 7 quality innings every 5 days means less work for the pen, basically giving almost 2 days off every 5-6 days. It also takes the pressure off the No. 3, 4 and 5 starters.

Underdogs in baseball offer the best wagering value. One way to assess a team’s chances as a dog or to identify a team that is undervalued by oddsmakers is to see if they have at least two reliable starters. The surprising Baltimore Orioles started this season 14-17 as a dog, including 20-10 under the total in those games. A key to their success has been the young one-two punch atop the rotation of Daniel Cabrera (5-1, 3.48) and Brian Burres.

The Orioles just won at the Yankees 12-2 as a dog behind Cabrera, then nearly took the series, losing 2-1 in the finale. It was 1-1 late in the game. Burress allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings, but the Orioles managed just five hits in falling 2-1 to the Yankees. Those two have kept them in every game. Baltimore’s pitching is 6th in the AL.

A team just ahead of them in pitching is another surprise, Tampa Bay. Scott Kazmir and James Shields provide a terrific one-two punch atop the rotation, while Edwin Jackson is improving. All 3 regularly go six-plus innings. This week marks the beginning of a season-long, 10-game homestand at Tropicana Field, where the Rays have won 12 of their past 13 games.

Before starter Andy Sonnanstine was roughed up by the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay starters had a 2.10 ERA in their previous 14 games. Rays pitchers have given up just one home run in the past 10 home games. Edwin Jackson has allowed just one earned run in his past three starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay started 16-8 at home, 10-9 as an underdog, and 18-6 under the total at home! Good starting pitching is the biggest reason for all three of those records.

And how about those first-place Marlins? They started 17-16 as a dog! Scott Olsen (4-1) and veteran Mark Hendrickson (6-2) have been the big guns that anchor the staff. Hendrickson averages 6 innings per start while Olsen averages around 7. But the guy to watch is 22-year old Andrew Miller, who is starting to put it together. Miller was 0-2 with a 9.68 ERA after his first four starts with the Marlins. Since then, Miller has gone 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA. And he has relinquished only two runs over his past 22 innings.

He had a career-high nine strikeouts in a 4-0 win over first-place Arizona, completing a 3-game sweep. And they were an underdog in all three games at home against the D-Backs. “Personally, I hope they keep counting us out,” Miller said of those waiting for the Marlins to collapse. “I really don’t mind if they count us out until they can’t anymore.” With an MLB-low $22 million payroll and a roster full of young faces, the Marlins are the surprise team thus far. Just as amazing, the Diamondbacks sent out two aces and three strong starters in the series, Micah Owings, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and the Marlins whipped them all.

The Angels are another team slowly getting it together. John Lackey has returned to the rotation while 25-year old Ervin Santana has been great, finally harnessing his electric stuff. The pitching has been the key, going 6-7 as a dog and 29-19 under the total. ‘We pitch and play defense,’ Mike Scioscia said last week. ‘It’s really the foundation of our club.’

Even Vladimir Guerrero has been relatively cold. He entered last week with only four home runs, the lowest total of his career for the first 45 games of a season. Power is down all around major league baseball, in fact, probably a result of the recent crackdown on steroids.

Another team that has been great as an underdog is Houston, starting 15-11 as a dog! The pitching has been average as they are still trying to get ace Roy Oswalt back on track. Still, the relief staff has been strong and note that Houston is 18-8 under the total as a dog. They are just .500 as a favorite, but bite best a dog.