Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds & Picks: October 12th 2008
Game: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Date: October 12th 2008 1:00PM
Opinion: under 43.5
Condition: (must be 43 or better)
These teams have faced each other five times since 1993. All five of those games finished below the total. Those games averaged only 23.8 combined points and none produced more than 34. The most recent meeting came in December of 2005 and resulted in a 16-3 victory by the Bears. While all that’s “ancient history,” the Bears are again playing some solid defense. They allowed just seven points last week and have held four of five opponents to 20 points or less. Overall, they’re allowing 17.4 points, which is the sixth best mark in the league.
The Bears have been particularly stingy on the road, allowing an average of only 13.3 points in three games away from Chicago. All three of those games fell below the number bringing the ‘under’ to 6-2 in Chicago’s last eight road games overall. Looking back several years and we find the UNDER at a profitable 14-8 the last 22 times the Bears played a road game with a total in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, note that they’ve allowed an average of only 10 points in their two “dome games.”
The Falcons have also been respectable on defense. Through five games, they’re allowing 21.4 points. That’s slightly better than the current league average of 22.5. While the Bears have allowed fewer points on the road, the Falcons have been better defensively at home. In two games here, they’ve allowed an average of only 17.5 points.
One of the many stats I pay attention to is how many times a team runs the ball each game. As you know, when teams regularly run the ball, the clock has a better chance to keep moving. These teams both rank near the top of the league in that category. In fact, through five games both the Bears and Falcons are averaging exactly 33 rushing attempts per game. Only the Ravens (40.3) and the Redskins (33.6) have run the ball more frequently.
We know Chicago coach Lovie Smith has always liked to run the ball and first-year Atlanta coach Mike Smith had this to say: “We’re always going to set out to try to run the football. I think in the first five games we’ve done that.” That’ll likely be “easier said than done” in Week 6, as the Bears are allowing a mere 74 yards per game on the ground. That doesn’t mean the Falcons will quit trying though. I expect a heavy dose of Michael Turner and Matt Forte to help keep the clock moving and for the final combined score to finish below the generous number. Consider the Under.
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