College Basketball Betting Picks: San Diego +12.0 (-110)
Mon February 25 ‘08 10:00p - Click Here for College Basketball Betting Odds
This is a revenge game for the St. Mary’s Gaels, who lost on the road to the San Diego Toreros a month ago, but that alone does not justify this huge spread vs. a quality team.

The Toreros are as hot as any team in the West Coast conference right now, and yes that includes St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. San Diego is 8-1 straight up in the last nine games, and they covered the spread in the only loss, a four-point defeat to Gonzaga. Furthermore, they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, and extended further they are an outstanding 25-11 ATS in their last 36 road contests.

Now St. Mary’s is certainly a quality squad, but they are coming off of a potentially demoralizing 65-57 home loss to Kent State in a Bracket Buster game in a game where they had a chance to make a statement for the conference. Granted, that was their first home SU loss of the season after a 14-0 start, but we simply feel that San Diego is a very difficult team right now to try and rebound against.

While the Gaels will probably win this game on the court, this rather enormous spread gives us plenty of leeway to nab this cover.

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College Basketball Betting Picks: San Diego @ St Mary’s CA u128.5
Mon February 25 ‘08 10:00p - Click Here for College Basketball Betting Odds
All of San Diego’s success this season has been predicated by their ability to control the pace. The Toreros were able to win at Kentucky, knock off St Mary’s in the first meeting between these two teams and give Gonzaga a real scare last Monday all because of their slow down approach to the game. The Toreros won’t score many quick fast break buckets, utilizing the entire shot clock on the vast majority of their possessions. Nor is San Diego likely to allow St Mary’s to get many easy fast break buckets, playing exceptional transition defense.

The first meeting between these two teams resulted in a 63-55 win for San Diego; a game that went Under the total by 15 points despite a 56% shooting performance from the Toreros. San Diego is unlikely to shoot the ball at that same clip tonight against a St Mary’s squad that has held their last five opponents under 37% from the floor. The Gaels have been an under machine all season; 7-16-1 to the Under this year, including a 9-3 run to the Under in their last dozen games. Kent State slowed down the pace and controlled the game flow in their upset win at St Mary’s over the weekend. Expect a similar slowdown tonight in a game that should finish well Under the total. Take the Under.

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