College Basketball Picks: Look for a low scoring affair in the Siena vs. Loyola MD matchup
Pick: Yale +1
The biggest edge I see for Yale tonight is on the glass where they are grabbing 36 boards per game and 11 offense rebounds compared to 32 and 8 for their opponents. Penn on the other hand is grabbing only 31 and 7 while allowing opponents to grab 36 and 10. Yale is 16-5 ATS on the road against teams being out rebounded by 4+ per game the second half of the season dating back to 1997 and 29-14 ATS against teams being outscored by 4+ points per game. Penn is 19-39 ATS at home when playing a sub .500 team the second half of the season since 1997 and 7-18 ATS at home after a loss by six points or less. You wan to play against home teams where the line is + or – 3 when that team has lost five or six of their last seven games, and the team is winning 20% or less less of their games on the year. This situation is 41-17 (71%) over the last five seasons. Penn fits because they only have two wins in their last seven and are 4-16 on the year. Neither one of these teams is very good, but Penn is even worse than Yale so I’ll go with the road team.
If you enjoyed our free college basketball picks for February 8th 2013, be sure to check out our handicapper’s NCAA premium picks hot streaks below!
Pick: Siena vs. Loyola MD Under 124
Siena is 18-5 favoring the under versus good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game over the last 3 seasons. Loyola Maryland is 9-2 favoring the under versus poor shooting teams that are making less than 42% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Siena is also 8-0 favoring the under in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. When Loyola Maryland is a favorite they are 14-5 to the under over the last 2 seasons. Siena’s head coach Mitch Buonaguro is a defense oriented coach. When Siena is coming off a home loss they are 10-1 to the under after loss with Buonaguro as the head coach. He is also 18-5 to the under when facing good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. This may seem like a low total at first glance, but the way these teams patch up they will be lucky to score 115 points in this game so this should stay well under the 124 point posted total.
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