Northern Colorado +5.5 (-110) – Thursday December 18th ’08 11:00p
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The Northern Colorado Bears have been a well kept secret since joining the Big Sky Conference last season, but they have gone 20-13-1, 60.6 percent against the spread since then, and they get the call when the visit the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears have been especially lucrative in this road underdog role, going 11-5-1, 68.8 percent, and they are 3-1 as road dogs this year, covering at Oregon, Denver and Creighton. Fresno State is no better than any of those teams, so we see no reason why Northern Colorado cannot take another contest right down to wire.

The key to their success has been their three-point shooting. The Bears are hitting a very solid 40.5 percent from the land of threes this season, meaning that they are rarely out of a game and that they are always dangerous as underdogs, as the backdoor is always open to them.

Now the Bulldogs are just 4-5 straight up on the year, and two of their wins have come vs. non-lined opponents. They have yet to cover a home game this season, going 0-2-2 ATS in their own building, and they have lost three straight lined home games straight up despite being favored in two of those games (Montana, Oregon State).

Finally, Fresno State is a terrible free throw shooting team at just 71.6 percent, which is another reason for their struggles this year. Thus, do not expect them to put the Bears away here, even if they have a late lead.

College Basketball Free Pick: Northern Colorado +5.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

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