Free Pick: Providence +3.0 (-110) – Wed February 4th ’09 8:00p
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The Villanova Wildcats are currently ranked 16 in the country, but they may have a surprise in store for them when they visit the Providence Friars tonight.

Providence is actually a half-game ahead of Villanova in the Big East standings at 6-3, and the Friars have been very tough at home this season, going 11-2 while beating their Division I home opponents by an average of +12.3 points per game.

Providence is averaging an impressive 79.7 points per game overall including a whopping 83.0 points at home, and their offensive success has been no fluke. This is because they rank number 56 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, they have low turnover percentage (18.9) and they have high percentages in offensive rebounds (37.9) and two-point baskets (52.9).

Now Villanova is also solid offensively, but their average of 75.5 points per game on the road is still nearly eight points less than the Providence home average. That should be the key to this game, as the home/away defensive splits for these teams are virtually identical, with the Wildcats allowing 70.0 points per road contest and the Friars allowing 70.7 points at home.

Providence has already beaten a ranked Big East team in this building, knocking off then number 15 Syracuse last week, and we look for them to duplicate that feat with an upset tonight.

College Basketball Free Pick: Providence +3 (-110)

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