Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick, Odds & Point Spread: October 25th 2009
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-0 against bad teams such as the Bucs, Panthers and Chiefs, but they are 0-2 against good teams in the Giants and Broncos. The Atlanta Falcons classify as one of those “good teams” and after their 4-1 start, Matt Ryan and company are picking up right where they left off last season. I strongly feel the Falcons are the better team here Sunday, and I don’t think home field justifies the Cowboys being more than a 3-point favorite at home. I see the Falcons winning outright, likely by a field goal. But no way do I see Atlanta losing by more than 3 points Sunday. The Falcons have a balanced offense that puts up 24.6 points/game. It’s their defense that has been the biggest surprise, allowing just 15.4 points/game which gives Atlanta the edge. Dallas has been O.K. defensively at 19.6 points/game, but when you look at the easy schedule they have faced to this point it’s a bit steep. Dallas is scoring 24.4 points/game, which is not mind-blowing considering their schedule. Atlanta has faced the Dolphins, Panthers, Pats, 49ers and Bears this season, so for the Falcons to be 4-1 and putting up these kinds of numbers is very impressive. Atlanta is outscoring those 5 quality opponents by an average of 9.2 points/game. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas has not proven they can beat the big boys. Taking the points is the only option here. Cash in with the Falcons as the underdog.