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Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans Picks: Monday Night Football – November 19th, 2007

November 19th, 2007

The Denver Broncos (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) are still very much alive in the race for the AFC West title, and they will try to get to the .500 mark on Monday Night Football when they take on the Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Invesco Field at Mile High (grass). Game time is 8:30 PM ET. The Broncos are listed at -2, with an over/under of 39 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* TENN is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games
* TENN has won 12 of its last 16 games SU
* TENN has played seven of its last nine UNDER the total
* TENN has won six of its last seven road games SU
* TENN is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games
* TENN is 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 as a dog
* TENN has played six UNDERS in its last nine road games
* DENVER is 3-15 ATS in its last 17 games
* DENVER has covered one of its last 11 home games
* DENVER has played 11 of its last 14 games OVER the total
* DENVER has won its last five at home against Tennessee SU
* The last five meetings have been played OVER the total

Vince Young passed for 257 yards last week against Jacksonville, but the second-year player has generally not done well throwing the ball. Young has hit for only 5.9 yards an attempt with four TD’s and 10 interceptions. Tennessee relies on the run, behind LenDale White (625 yds., 3.5 ypc) and Chris Brown (300 yds., 5.3 ypc), and in stopping the run (just 3.5 ypc allowed). The success of this team, in spite of Young’s regression, is a testament to coach Jeff Fisher, who perhaps deserved the coach of the year award last season and rates consideration again this year.

Tennessee’s rushing attack is not a welcome sight for Denver’s defense, which has not shown any ability to slow up ground games, yielding 4.8 yards a carry and 151 yards a game (ranking 31st in the league). Jay Cutler, like Young, has battled inconsistency (9 TD’s, 9 INT’s) and Mike Shanahan’s team has been erratic, beating Pittsburgh and winning at Kansas City last week but suffering major blowout losses to San Diego and Detroit.

Albert Haynesworth should be back in the lineup for the Titans; the standout defensive tackle will help against Travis Henry (580 yards, 4.5 ypc), who should be returning for Denver despite knee and back problems and a year-long drug suspension still a possibility.

The fundamental difference here is Tennessee’s defense, which ranks second overall in the league and allows opponents to convert just 36% of the time on third down. From the technical standpoint, there are few teams that have been as good as the Titans, both on the road (9-1-1 ATS last 11) and as a dog (12-2-1 ATS last 15). We see no problem grabbing the points with Tennessee

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