Free NHL Pick: Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche
May 1, 2008 10:00PM - Click Here for Current NHL Odds
I’m coming off a solid 4-2 day overall but it could have easily been better (5-1) if not for a tough beat on the ice. My play was on the Flyers and Canadiens to finish ‘under’ the total. The teams were scoreless after one period and the score was just 1-0 heading into the third. A wild third period saw the teams each score two goals, bringing the score to 3-2. It still seemed like the game might sneak below the total, before the Flyers added an empty net goal with less than two seconds remaining.

That’s ancient history though and this is an entirely different series. The Wings have won the first three games and each has finished above the number. However, it’s rare to see four straight games in an NHL playoff series finish above the total and I don’t expect it to happen here. Note that the Avs have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6-1 the past three seasons (5-2-1 this year) after having lost three or more consecutive games. During the same stretch, the Wings have seen the ‘under’ go 41-29-11 after having won three or more consecutive games.

The Avs, who have seen the ‘under’ go 23-11-7 against teams with a winning record this season, saw their “elimination game” vs. Minnesota in the first round produce just three goals, with a final score of 2-1. The Wings, who have seen the ‘under’ go 14-9-7 the last 30 times they were coming off three or more consecutive games which finished above the number, also saw their opening round elimination game (vs Nashville) produce three goals, finishing with a score of 3-0. Regardless of whether or not this proves to be the final game of the series, I expect it to prove to be the one with the lowest final combined score.

Ben Burns cashed another “Main Event” yesterday, as the Wizards knocked off the Cavaliers outright. He had to settle for the split though, when the Celtics and Hawks slipped above the number. All the same, he’s still an outstanding 8-3 (73%) his last 11 NBA selections and he’s beginning May with a BIG PLAY. Be there! 
 
Selection Courtesy of Ben Burns - Click Here to Buy Ben Burn’s Expert NHL Picks