Tue February 19 ‘08 8:30p
Prediction: Drake -6.5
Reason: When this season started no one, and I mean no one, could have foreseen what type of top notch product, Drake was going to put on the floor, under first head coach Keno Davis, especially after losing 4 seniors starters to graduation in the off season. The Bulldogs despite of those set backs have captured the Missouri Conference regular season title, while locking up the top seed in the State Farm MVC tournament. Now in their last regular season home game of the year, a place where they have won 16 straight games, I expect one more explosive effort against their long time rivals the Bradley Braves. Final notes & Key Trends: Drake has out scored opponents by an average of 17.3 PPG on home floor this season. Play on Drake

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Davidson -13.5
Tue February 19 ‘08 7:00p
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978. The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games. Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –

DAVIDSON covers the spread when [all figures are ATS (against-the-spread)]:
They put 5 men on the floor anywhere: 15-8 last 23; 50-31 last 81; 125-86 last 211 games
They’re a home favorite of 12.5-15 points: 8-1 last 9; 12-4 last 16
They play another Southern Conference team: 36-19 last 55; 93-49 last 142
They play immediately after a conference game: 35-19 last 54; 90-54 last 144
Off of a win vs a conference rival: 11-5 last 16; 31-17 last 48
After allowing 60 points or less: 8-1 last 9
After scoring 80 points or more: 8-3 last 11; 28-12 last 40; 50-28 last 78
When playing vs a team with a winning record: 9-3 last 12; 71-43 last 114
When playing vs a winning team deeper into a season, after at least 15 games:
45-17 last 62 (that’s an amazing 72.6% spread-record over 62 games!)

NC-GREENSBORO fails to cover the spread when:
They’re a dog: 3-6 last 9
They’re a road dog of 12.5-15 points: 2-7 last 9
They’re a road dog of 12.5 or more points: 6-20 last 26
They play a good offensive team, scoring at least 77 points per game, at least 15 games into a season: 8-16 last 24

GO WITH DAVIDSON -13.5 IN THIS 700PM EST MATCHUP ON ESPN2

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Akron +5.5 (-110)
Tue Feb 19 ‘08 7:30p
The Akron Zips may be just 4-3 straight up in the last seven head-to-head meetings with the Miami-Ohio Redhawks, but none of the three losses was by more than three points.

Miami did win the last two meetings here at home, but the scored of those games were 64-62 (in overtime) and 63-60, and we expect another tough, hard-fought tight game tonight. Akron has certainly not been embarrassed on the road this season, only getting outscored by -0.5 points per road contest, and they enter this contest on a two-game road winning streak after a couple of nine-point wins at Bowling Green and Ball State.

Miami is not exactly tearing things up this season at 13-11 SU, and they are a nondescript 4-4 against the spread in their own building. They do have revenge going for them after losing by 15 points at Akron last month, but given the recent history between these teams, we do not expect the Redhawks to have an easy time putting Akron away here.

In the end, we feel that this is anybody’s game, so we will go with the value play and take Akron with these points.

CBB Free Pick: Akron +5.5

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