Colts vs. Titans
Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-110 odds)
Sun October 11th 2009 8:20p
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Normally, we would tend to avoid obvious plays like this, with a popular 4-0 Indianapolis Colts team favored by just a shade over a field goal over an 0-4 Tennessee Titans squad.

However, in this case, we feel this line is being kept low by the perception that the Titans are much better than an 0-4 team after having the best record in the entire NFL last season, and that a nationally televised tilt in front of what should be a frenzied home crowd is the perfect stage for them to return to their glory of last year, when they beat these Colts in a Monday night affair.

Well, the problem we have with that logic is that it underrates just how valuable Albert Heynsworth was to that Titans team last year. Heynsworth was great at rushing the passer, and even when he was double teamed by opposing teams, that freed up a teammate to get to the passer. That served to hide the deficiencies in the Tennessee secondary, a glaring weakness that has been exposed this season with Heynsworth gone and no pass rush present.

As a result, Tennessee is allowing an unacceptable 282,2 passing yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. Sure, they are still among the best defenses in the NFL in stopping the run defensively, but a lot of that has to do with opposing teams passing more against them with that weakness now exposed.

Peyton Manning, meet the Tennessee secondary. Tennessee secondary, meet Peyton Manning. While we freely admit that this selection has all the stink of a square play, we just see no way the Titans can slow down Manning and his receivers, and we are calling for a very safe double-digit Indianapolis win.

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