North Texas vs. Western Kentucky
Free Pick: North Texas -13.5
Sat October 31st 2009 4:00p
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Western Kentucky actually qualifies in a some decent contrary technical situations this week as winless underdogs are actually a solid play after back-to-back ATS losses. However, this angle works because the favorite usually overlooks their inferior opponent. That will not be the case this week as North Texas is just 1-6 SU and will relish at the chance to finally dominate a weaker opponents as the Mean Green have been a pointspread underdog in each of their first seven games this season.

North Texas is a veteran team that returned 16 starters this season and they won outright 51-40 at Western Kentucky last season as an 18-point road underdog. WKU is a much weaker team this season, while NTU has improved, so another double-digit win is likely for the Mean Green today.

Western Kentucky is the worst team in division I-A football this season and they have a horrendous defense that is allowing 41.9 points per game and 7.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 26.9 ppg and 5.3 yppl). North Texas should be able to exploit this weak defense as the Mean Green are averaging a solid 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.4 yppl). North Texas is also rushing for 5.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 4.1 ypr) and will now be facing a terrible WKU run defense that allows 266 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 162 yards and 4.1 ypr).

Western Kentucky has a decent rushing offense, but their passing attack is terrible as the Hilltoppers average just 5.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.8 ypp). This non-existent aerial game makes it difficult for them to play from behind and it also lessens the chance of a backdoor cover today.