Free College Basketball Picks: January 29th 2008
San Diego State -7.0
Tue Jan 29 ’08 9:00p
San Diego State enter into this tilt against their hosts Colorado State Rams off two consecutive hard fought losses to top tier teams, UNLV and BYU. With that said, I expect this talented Aztecs team to be very motivated to get back in the win column, against a Rams team that is in complete disarray, as is evident by losing 6 straight and 10 of their L/11 overall. To put it bluntly, compared to their last two opponents, this contest will seem like a walk in the park for the Aztecs. Final notes & Key Trends: Aztecs are 7-1-ATS in the last 8 meetings . Projected score: (739 ) San Diego State 72 (740)Colorado State 60
Samford @ Murray State u120.5 (-110)
Tuesday January 29 ’08 8:00p
This game between the Samford Bulldogs and the Murray State Racers features two stark contrasts in styles. The Under is an amazing 13-3 in all Samford games this season, with a very low average combined total scored in their games of just 116.6 points. The Bulldogs average just 54.9 points offensively, but their shooting percentage of 44.6 percent is not the worst in the world, which means that their low output is a direct result of the deliberate style. Furthermore, their road games have been even lower scoring, with an average combined total score of 114.9 points per contest. Now Murray State plays much more up-tempo, as their games are averaging 143.0 points. However, we could see them getting frustrated by Samford’s style, even in their own building. At least that has been the case in the past, as the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools here in Murray State have averaged just a combined 115.2 points. We look for history to repeat tonight. CBB Free Pick: Samford, Murray State Under 120.5
Evansville +14.5
Tue Jan 29 ’08 8:00p
Southern Illinois is not a team built to win games by big margins. The Salukis last win by more than 13 points came back on December 11th. They are most assuredly an offensively challenged ballclub, shooting at a 42% clip for the season, averaging only 62 points per game, making it very difficult to run up margins. Nor are the Salukis a particularly good rebounding team – they don’t get many easy second chance opportunities. Southern Illinois beat Evansville by 13 when they met two weeks ago, but it took a special effort for the Salukis to win by that margin: 59% shooting for the game; 53% shooting from three point land; 74% shooting from the free throw line. Even at home, it’s hard to picture this poor shooting Southern Illinois squad having that same sort of success tonight.
Evansville went through a very ugly stretch of play here in January, punctuated by ugly road losses at Indiana State by 30, at Creighton by 18, and at Northern Iowa by 13. But we’ve also seen spread covering losses by 1 at Bradley and by 8 at Illinois State during this span, giving us reason to suspect that the Purple Aces are capable of hanging around here. Let’s not forget that Evansville was competitive on this floor against the Salukis last year, losing by only seven, and they beat Southern Illinois outright at home! And Evansville is coming off a confidence inspiring blowout win over Missouri State this past weekend, giving them some positive momentum heading into this game now that their eight game losing streak has been snapped. We don’t need an outright victory to cash this ticket – not even close – giving us plenty of wiggle room should we need it. (#733) Take Evansville.
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