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OVER 8.5 Philadelphia/Atlanta:
Sometimes I wonder if the linesmakers really look at a situation or simply make a line based on past performaces. This total looks way out of whack considering the path these two starters are on. To say Derek Lowe (7-6, 4.53) has been abysmal lately would be doing an injustice to the term abysmal. He’s allowed 16 runs on 26 hits in his last 11 2/3 innings pitched. I don’t know if he’s hurt, or just trying out some new things, but whatever it is, he needs to turn it around fast. He is 5-1 lifetime against the Phillies, so it should be good for his confidence facing them tonight. “Kentucky” Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.06) hasn’t been as bad as Lowe recently, however in two starts this season vs. Atlanta, he’s 0-1 and allowed 13 runs in 12 innings pitched. He last won a game on June 1 and would love to close out the month with a win tonight. This 8.5 total looks strange to me, it almost looks too easy.

Over 8 Colorado/Los Angeles:
Chad Billingsley (9-3, 3.10) has been one of the leading Cy Young candidates all season long for the Dodgers, but his last few outings have shown some signs of him tiring. He’s given up 8 runs in 12 innings during his last 2 starts, and rendered no decisions in each. I’m not saying he’s “done” or anything, I just think there’s good value in this total tonight. Jason Marquis (9-5, 4.22) is having a really nice season for the Rockies after being picked up from the Free Agent heap. Colorado has been playing some great Baseball and Marquis has been one of the keys to their resurgence of late. However, his last few starts have been suspect as well. Allowing 10 runs on 17 hits in just 12 innings of work. This total just doesn’t look right based on the last few efforts for each of these pitchers. Hit the over tonight.

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