Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers u10.5
Fri May 16 ‘08 8:05p
Shawn Chacon the Astros right-handed hurler here today against the Rangers has made six quality starts, this season, which is the most from his teams entire pitching rotation. He does not have any wins to show for it, but his stable 2.81 ERA is indicative of his 5 quality away efforts. His pitching opponent from the Rangers Sidney Ponson has for the most part ,also been in good form , recording a 2-0 record along with a stingy 3.16 ERA in 4 starts. I expect these two hurlers should help keep this contest on the low side of the number. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-2 in Astros last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Ponson. Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 home games with the total set at 9-10.5 . Play UNDER

New York Yankees (135)
Fri May 16 ‘08 7:05p
Now we have all the respect in the world for Johan Santana, but we simply cannot pass up the New York Yankees at this generous price at home as they open up the Subway Series vs. the New York Mets.

Now Santana is 4-2, and the Mets are 6-2 as a team when he has started, but he has been far from the best pitcher in baseball yet this season. While most pitchers would be happy with a 3.04 ERA, that is actually high by Johan’s standards, and he uncharacteristically allowed 10 hits in six innings vs. the Cincinnati Reds in a 12-6 Mets victory in his last start.

His mound opponent Darrell Rasner has actually pitched very well in his two starts since being recalled by the Bronx Bombers. He allowed just two runs and five hits in six innings in his seasonal debut vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he followed that up with an arguably better outing in Detroit, where he allowed two runs and only four hits, again in six innings. Also, he is supported by a Yankees bullpen that ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.23 ERA, making them a Bullpen System play here.

It won’t be easy vs. Santana, but we would feel very comfortable if the Yankees could bring a lead into the late innings at this rather inflated price.

MLB Free Pick: Yankees +135

Tampa Bay Rays (-105)
Fri May 16 ‘08 8:15p
The Tampa Bay Rays are the biggest surprise in baseball this year, and we look for their success to continue when they visit the St. Louis Cardinals to kick off interleague play.

In all honesty, we are not thrilled with either starting pitcher here, but we feel the Tampa Bay bullpen is light years ahead of the Cardinals, and therein lies the key to this contest. The Rays have won seven out of eight games, and they qualify under our Bullpen System here. While that angle is just 32-31 so far this season, it is still +3.26 units and has yet to go into the red at any point. Remember that our Bullpen System has averaged +97 units the last three years.

Andy Sonnanstine has gone 5-1 for Tampa Bay, but it has not been pretty, as evidenced by his high 5.07 ERA. In fact, he has been downright brutal in his last two starts, allowing a total of nine runs and 18 hits in 11 innings, yet the red-hot Rays found a way to win both of those games. In all fairness, Sonnanstine did have three straight Quality Starts prior to those last two debacles, including two outings where he allowed one run or less. Should he repeat his last two efforts however, it is certainly reassuring to know that the Rays’ bullpen has a collective 3.18 ERA, ranking third in the American League and fifth in the Major Leagues.

Braden Looper of the Cardinals practically mirrors Sonnanstine in that his rather high 4.21 ERA has ballooned over his last two starts, when he allowed a total of eight earned runs and 18 baserunners in 14.1 innings. The difference though is that Looper does not expect to get much support from a bullpen that ranks 22nd with a 4.30 ERA after deposed closer Jason Isringhausen imploded again yesterday.

Finally, the Rays’ style of play ironically resembles the Cardinals during their glory days, based on speedsters getting on base and advancing either via steals and hit-and-run plays, except that Tampa Bay now does it better. If their bullpen remains as strong as it has been so far, the entire league will realize that Tampa Bay is not a fluke.

MLB Free Pick: Rays -105