Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Free MLB Pick: Under 8 Runs -110 odds (September 16th 2009)
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Two struggling offense face off on Wednesday afternoon and I’m going with the under. Doug Davis is one of the most under rated pitchers in baseball he has a 3.99 ERA with a 7-13 record this year. More importantly is how he has dominated during the day with a 2.28 ERA in 9 starts compared to his 4.85 ERA at night. He has three starts vs. the Padres and he’s 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA. He has had 2 starts in San Diego (friendliest pitcher park) from 08-09 and he has not given up a run in 13.2 innings while giving up only 5 hits and striking out 13. Padres at home vs. LHP are hitting just .198 scoring 3.04 runs per 9, but their bullpen has been magnificent with 2.90 ERA. While they may not score runs here today their bullpen will keep them in it with Mujica on the mound.

Mujica mostly out of the bullpen this year will make his second start. He went 4 innings giving up 2 hits and 0 ER vs. the Rockies. Now he faced the Diamondbacks for the first time as a starter. Dbacks have a .200 avg in 25 at bats vs. Mujica. Mujica actually has 81 IP this year and at home he has a 2.85 ERA and 3.33 ERA overall on the season. His 36:11 K:BB ratio at home is very impressive and the Diamondbacks are not exactly lighting up the scoreboards either. Mujica will likely have a limit of 50-75 pitches, but the the bullpen will take over and as I mentioned they have a 2.90 ERA at home against a sub par hitting team I’ll take my chances in a low scoring game.

The Under is 12-2-2 for the Dbacks in Davis’ L16 starts on grass and L16 overall.
The Under is 9-1-1 L11 vs. RH starters for the Dbacks.
The Under is 8-2-2 in Davis’ L12 starts as an underdog.
The Under is 10-1 in the Padres L11 following a loss.
The Under is 6-1 in the Padres L7 overall
The Under is 17-5 L22 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Under is 4-0 L4 meetings.

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