Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins o9.0 (-110) – Sun July 5th 2009 2:10p

We feel that neither Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers nor Nick Blackburn of the Minnesota Twins are as good as some of their numbers this year may indicate, so we look for a higher scoring game here than others might expect.

Sure, Porcello is 8-5 with a 3.90 ERA, but he puts too many men on base for our liking with a 1.41 WHIP. Besides, his regression appears to have already begun, as we was bombed for five earned runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings by the normally light-hitting Oakland Athletics last Monday, and he now has a 4.80 ERA with a disgusting 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts.

As for Blackburn, his numbers look even better at 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall. However, he too appears to be coming back down to earth as he has allowed double-digit hit totals in each of his last two starts. He was downright terrible in his only start vs. Detroit this year, getting lit up for nine runs (six earned) on eight hits while lasting only 4.1 innings at Comerica Park, which is more pitcher friendly than the Metrodome.

Finally, the Over is still 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings even with the game staying Under yesterday, and we look for a return to the norm here.

MLB Free Pick: Tigers, Twins Over 9 (-110)

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