Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat o191.5 (-110)
Monday February 4 ‘08 7:35p
The Toronto Raptors have been a good Over team all season, and while the Miami Heat are offensively challenged, their porous defense will do its part to push this game Over the total.

The Over is a wallet filling 15-8, 65.2 percent in all Toronto road games this season with an average combined score in those games of 194.9 points, a figure good enough to go Over this total. Moreover, the last five Raptors games overall have averaged a whopping 209.2 points, with the Over going 4-1 in those games. Finally, the Over is 4-0 in the last four Toronto road games.

Now granted, the Heat are only averaging 93.0 points per game overall. However, the Miami Over has still managed to go 23-21-2, thanks to a poor defense that is generously allowing 100.1 points per contest. Also, we actually think Miami is capable of scoring more points tonight vs. a Toronto defense that has not exactly been stifling people lately.

Add this all up, and we see this game ending up in the vicinity of 200 points.

NBA Free Pick: Raptors, Heat Over 191.5

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New Orleans Hornets @ Utah Jazz o202.0
Mon Feb 4 ‘08 9:05p
Utah and New Orleans are a pair of excellent offensive teams. The Jazz spread the ball around the floor, with big men that can hit from the perimeter and little guys like who can drive to the basket. That offensive gameplan should work quite well against the Hornets, a team that likes to keep their big men packed in the paint on the defensive side of the court. It certainly worked well in the first meeting between these two teams, a 28 point Jazz victory, and it’s worked for the Warriors and Kings, New Orleans’ last two opponents, who poured in 112 and 116 points respectively against the Hornets. We can expect Jerry Sloan to keep the Jazz pushing the pace and spread out on the floor, two factors that play against the Hornets strength’s defensively.

But the Hornets are more than capable of trading points with the Jazz, thanks to their own ability to penetrate and create good looks near the basket. Point guard Chris Paul is playing at an MVP level, and we can project that his ability to penetrate the paint will allow the Hornets to get more than their fair share of good looks at the basket, while providing plenty of opportunities to score points with the clock stopped, from the foul line. Look for New Orleans’ current run of seven Overs in their last nine games to continue this evening. Take the Over.