Free NBA Pick: Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz u220.5 (-110 odds)
Mon January 25th 2010 9:05p
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Now we get that the Phoenix Suns always play at a fast pace with defense being an afterthought and that the Utah Jazz offense is, well, Suns-like when they play at home. That said, this total still seems inflated, as those facts are very well known and the books expect Over action on this game almost regardless of the total they post.

You may be surprised to learn that the Under is actually 24-19-2 in all Phoenix games this season, including 13-9-1, 59.1 percent on the road, This is obviously not because the Sins are suddenly playing defense, but rather because their totals are always inflated. Phoenix road games are still averaging 216.1 points combined, but even that figure has been good enough for a 59.1 percent Under rate, and it is about four points less than this posted total.

The Suns have gone Under in three straight games overall, with all of them being at home, and as frenetic as their pace is, it is interesting that they have been unable to solve the Jazz defense in their last three trips to Utah. In those last three visits, Phoenix managed just 99 (in overtime no less), 97 and 86 points respectively, well below Suns standards and figures that would make it virtually impossible to go Over this bloated total.

Now the Jazz do average 105.2 points per game at home, but they are simultaneously allowing 96.0 points on 44.5 percent shooting, and while that combined total of 201.2 points would be good enough to go Over many times, as the Over is 13-10 in Utah home games, that total is still about 19 points less than this posted number!

So despite the offensive prowess that both of these teams obviously possess, this total is set so high because of that that the Under actually has value.

NBA Free Pick: Suns, Jazz Under 220.5 (-110)

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