TCU vs. Virginia
Free Pick: Virginia +11.5 -110 odds (September 12th 2009) – Click here for point spreads
Visit Touthouse.com for more free NCAA football picks from Ben Burns

This is an interesting matchup. It features a TCU team which has yet to play against a Virginia team which was upset by William and Mary in its opener.

In my opinion, those week one results (or lack thereof) have helped to create some line value here. The betting public saw the Cavaliers get embarrassed, the first time they lost to a FCS team (1-AA) since 1986, and now thinks they stink. Knowing that TCU is expected to be strong and knowing that they’ve had an extra week to prepare, many will expect the Horned Frogs to win this one convincingly. While that’s certainly possible, I see things differently.

Having an extra week to prepare for an opponent is generally a good thing. There is no doubt that Gary Patterson and his staff will have their players familiar with what Virginia brings to the table. However, there’s also something to be said for actually having played a “real” game. Often, that first game allows a team to work out some kinks and the Horned Frogs are one of only two teams in the country which didn’t get that opportunity. Of course, in Virginia’s case, with seven turnovers in its opener, there were/are an awful lot of “kinks to work out.”

As for the Cavs, they can either hang their heads and sulk or try and bounce back and try and at least salvage their season. I expect it to be the latter and look for them to deliver a much better effort. Virginia Head Coach Al Groh concurs. He was quoted as saying: “There are 11 more weeks to go. There will be a lot of negativity out there. Some of it well deserved. We can either crack or we can stick together. One thing we have never done around here is crack.”

While a “better effort” may not be enough for the Cavs to score the outright upset, I do expect it to at least keep them competitive. While Virginia has gone 5-3 ATS the last eight times it was getting points, TCU has gone 3-5 ATS the last eight times it was laying points on the road.

It’s also worth noting that this over/under line is currently down to 40.5 at most shops, which is among the lowest on the entire board. With that type of number, this is expected to be a relatively low-scoring game. That typically makes getting double-digits on the pointspread that much more attractive. Note that the Cavs are 8-3 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they played a home game with an o/u line of 42 or less. Consider taking the points.

If you enjoyed this article then you may be interested in:

1. Free NCAA Football Pick: Virginia Tech vs. Alabama Odds: September 5th 2009
2. BYU vs. Tulane Betting Odds, Pick & Point Spread: September 12th 2009
3. Purdue vs. Oregon Betting Odds, Pick & Point Spread: September 12th 2009
4. Utah Utes vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Pick: November 6th 2008
5. Stanford vs. Wake Forest Betting Odds, Pick & Point Spread: September 12th 2009