Buffalo Sabres vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Free Pick: Atlanta
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The Sabres saw their 6-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, which was way back on 1/9. After an extended slump, the Thrashers may be finally coming around. They’ve won two of their last three, most recently a 6-1 pasting of the Senators on Tuesday. With the Sabres potentially dealing with a little ‘rust,’ I feel the home team is offering decent value. I especially like the option of playing them on the puckline, getting an extra +1.5 goals to work with.

Looking at the series history and we find that these teams have split this season’s first two meetings. Both those were at Buffalo though. Looking at the games here at Atlanta, we find that that the Thrashers have enjoyed plenty of success. In fact, the Thrashers are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Sabres. Looking back further and we find them at 11-3 the last 14 meetings here.

So, why not just take the Thrashers on the moneyline? Well, I certainly think that’s a solid play too, as I feel that Thrashers have an excellent shot at the outright victory. That said, check this out. The Sabres have seen eight of their last 11 games decided by a single goal. They’ve only had two wins by more than one goal, during that 11-game stretch, and both those came by only two goals. Additionally, the last three meetings (and four of the last five) between these teams, here at Atlanta, were all decided by a single goal. Even the Sabres lone victory over the Thrashers, this season, came by one goal. Overall, six of the last seven meetings were won by one goal. If you don’t mind laying some extra juice for a high percentage play, consider Atlanta at +1.5 goals

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