Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Free NHL Pick: Atlanta Thrashers -130 odds
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After being shut out, the Thrashers try to bounce back Tuesday night against a Toronto Maple Leafs team that has yielded the most goals in the NHL; for a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting fair value on the home side in this situation:

The Maple Leafs (17-24-9) have yielded the league-worst goals allowed total; 173. They managed to beat Nashville 4-3 on Monday, but it wasn’t pretty.

Toronto built a 3-0 lead nine minutes into the game, but allowed the Predators to score twice in the third period to tie it. Phil Kessel’s goal with 5:48 left broke the tie, ended a personal eight-game goal-scoring drought and gave the Maple Leafs just their second victory in seven games.

Despite that victory, its important to keep in mind that Toronto is just 2-5 its last seven overall and a brutal 1-5 its last six on the road.

On the other side of the rink: The Thrashers beat Carolina 5-3 on Saturday, but were unable to carry over any momentum from that win, suffering a 1-0 loss to Florida on Monday; expect a rebound.

It’s true that Atlanta is just 3-12 its last 15, but it has already performed extremely well in this spot already this season; 5-3 (+1.8 units) when playing in a “back-to-back” situation.

Bottom line: In exact contrast; Toronto is a brutal 4-7 (-1.6 units) when playing on back-to-back days.

No need to overanalyze this one; the Leafs are forced to play another road game less than 24 hours later and will be tired; when taking all of the above factors into consideration, the THRASHERS are certainly worth a serious look here.

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