Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Free NFL Pick: Detroit Lions +11 NFL odds (Thanksgiving Day, 2009)
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The first leg of the Turkey Day triple-header takes us to Ford Field where the Green Bay Packers (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) will look to go 2-0 SU & ATS vs. the Detroit Lions (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) this season. The green and gold smashed the Lions 26-0 back in Week 6 as 14-point home favorites. They’ve won eight in a row against the Lions and have covered the closing number 6 of the L/7 times in this NFC North rivalry.

Kudos must go out to HC Mike McCarthy and the Packers for not giving up on the season after they suffered a pair of brutal defeats to both Minnesota and Tampa Bay in back-to-back weeks. Since then, they have fired back with consecutive impressive victories, a 17-7 win over Dallas and last week’s 30-24 victory over San Francisco. The six-point MOV against the Niners is a bit misinforming as the Packers dominated that game through three quarters only to let up in the 4th and allow the Niners to sneak in through the backdoor. QB Aaron Rodgers is having a marvelous ’09 campaign, and should surpass the 3,000-yard barrier in passing yards and the 20 TD mark as well on Sunday.

The Lions picked up a miraculous home victory last week against the Cleveland Browns, and even though they failed to cover the spread, they enter today’s Turkey Day battle riding a wave of forward momentum. QB Matthew Stafford had the best game of his young career against the Browns, throwing for 422 yards and five TDs, including the game-winning score as time expired. He became the youngest quarterback in NFL history to chuck five TDs in a game, with the last one coming while battling a separated shoulder. Kids got heart! Unfortunately, he probably won’t go in this one just to make sure a hit doesn’t exacerbate the condition. Instead, look for QB Daunte Culpepper to get the starting nod.

Even though all signs point to a Green Bay domination, don’t count out how frisky Detroit can be in this one. The Lions haven’t won at home on Thanksgiving Day since 2003 when it beat these Packers 22-14. This is a heck of a lot of points to be giving any home team in the NFL, especially one that has proven to be a nuisance to plenty of teams this season. Even though the Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their L/4 games, they very well could be 4-0 as well. They’ll get back in the ATS win column on Turkey Day. Gobble Gobble…

Play On: Detroit Lions

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