HAWAII VS. BOISE STATE PICKS & ODDS

Boise State beat Idaho 58-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite, outgaining the Vandals by 208 yards. In a Friday night game, Hawaii went to Reno and beat Nevada by a 28-26 score with a last-second field goal, failing to cover as a five-point road favorite. Tyler Graunke went the bulk of the way at quarterback for Hawaii.

HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* BOISE has covered four of the last six meetings
* BOISE has won the last six meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
* BOISE has scored 154 points in the last three meetings
* BOISE has averaged 39.8 ppg in the last eight meetings

LAST MEETING: Last year, on its way to an unbeaten season, Boise State beat Hawaii 41-34, failing to cover as a 15.5-point home favorite on their vaunted “Blue Carpet.” The teams combined for 991 yards. Ian Johnson, the star running back for Boise State, ran for 178 yards.

ABOUT BOISE STATE:
The Good News — The Broncos average 44.2 points and 490 yards per game. They have better balance than Hawaii, gaining 201.5 rushing yards per contest. Ian Johnson has run for 218 yards in his last two games. QB Taylor Tharp has completed 80% of his passes in his last three contests, with nine TD’s and one INT. Twenty-three of his completions in the last three games have gone to true frosh Austin Pettis. Boise State ranks tenth in the country in total defense as well. And at 10-1, the Broncos still have an outside shot at getting into a BCS game.

The Bad News — Short weeks are never a positive when you have to travel across time zones to Honolulu, especially when you’re flying out of a place like Boise, Idaho.

BOISE STATE TRENDS:
* BOISE has covered four of its last five games
* BOISE has covered four of its last six road games
* BOISE has won 11 of its last 12 road games SU
* BOISE has played five UNDERS in its last seven road games
* BOISE has won 17 straight conference games SU

ABOUT HAWAII:
The Good News — Although it won’t get a chance to play for the national title, Hawaii has a shot at a BCS bowl game if it wins against Boise State and the season finale against Washington. QB Colt Brennan says he’s 100% for this game. The senior has thrown for 3237 yards with 28 TD’s and 12 interceptions. Hawaii is the highest-scoring team in the country, averaging 48 points a game. And the Warrior defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 35 times.

The Bad News — Hawaii is 115th in the country in rushing offense, though that’s a little deceiving, since they’ve run it only 214 times and average 3.6 yards a carry with 15 TD’s. But if the passing game sputters, they may not be able to rely on a ground attack.

HAWAII TRENDS:
* HAWAII has covered one of its last five games
* HAWAII has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* HAWAII has covered one of its last five as a home favorite

THE BOTTOM LINE: There are always pitfalls in the trip to Hawaii, but Boise State has been through this drill before. The Broncos have won 23 of their last 24 games, and with Ian Johnson, they can play ball control to keep Hawaii’s offense off the field. And they have enough creativity to keep Hawaii’s limited “D” off balance. If you don’t believe us, get a tape of last season’s Fiesta Bowl. Sure, Colt Brennan is still a Heisman candidate, but has he performed much better than Taylor Tharp? Not really. With 17 straight WAC wins, Boise State masters this level of competition. And they have the defense to go with the offense. Somewhere, Hawaii’s narrow escapes have to catch up to them. It might as well be when we can grab some points. Therefore, take Boise State plus the points.

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