Sugar Bowl Free Pick: Hawaii +8.0
Tuesday January 1 ‘08 8:30p
Certain stereotypes die hard, we suppose. Such as the argument that the gap remains wide between BCS and non-BCS conference powers. Which, depending on the matchup, might still prove true. But recent wins by “outsiders” Utah (35-7 over Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl) and Boise State (who could forget that epic 43-42 thriller over Oklahoma in last year’s Fiesta?) in BCS bowls, not to mention some of the upsets during the just-completed regular season (remember Appalachian State over Michigan?) ought to dispel those notions…at least for the time being.

Still, just because Boise beat OU last year, and Utah whipped Pitt three years ago (a game in which the Utes were a rather prohibitive 14-point favorite, by the way), doesn’t mean Hawaii is going to do the same against Georgia. Indeed, there are some potentially troubling fundamental matchups for the Warriors to overcome in New Orleans, not to mention evidence that, at least based on its schedule, June Jones’ bunch really doesn’t belong in the BCS, especially vs. a Bulldog team tested week in and week out by rugged SEC competition. Mainland travel has also often been a thorn for Hawaii teams and came very close to scuttling this season’s BCS plans, with UH experiencing narrow escapes at modest WAC outposts such as La Tech (45-44 in OT), San Jose State (42-35 in OT), and Nevada (28-26 on a last-second FG). And last time we checked, trips to Ruston, San Jose, and Reno sure aren’t to be confused with excursions to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, or Jacksonville for a date vs. Florida, all of which UGa dealt with in ‘07.

Thus, the challenge for the Warriors is for their defense not to be manhandled by a maturing Bulldog OL that began to open holes for breathtaking RS frosh RB Knowshon Moreno (1273 YR) as the season progressed and allowed soph QB Matthew Stafford ample time to look downfield for speedy deep-threat WRs Sean Bailey & Mohammed Massaquoi. Although most WAC observers believe Moreno might do significant damage, they also suggest this Hawaii “D” is more fundamentally sound under 1st-year d.c. Greg McMackin (who has lots of NFL background) than it was under Jerry Glanville the past two seasons. In particular, McMackin’s in-game adjustments were invaluable, reflected in the fact Hawaii jumped from 93rd a year ago to 33rd in total defense stats this season.

But we’re not sure a bigger challenge doesn’t await a Georgia “D” that admittedly dealt with a lot of firepower in ‘07, but never had to cope with a strike force quite like the UH Red Gun piloted by sr. QB Colt Brennan, now healthy after throwing 38 TDP in 2007 after tossing 58 a year ago. Brennan’s prolific squadron of wideouts will allow the Red Gun to keep firing for a full 60 minutes. And even if the Bulldogs extend the margin, keeping the back door “shut” against Brennan might be easier said than done.

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