Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Free NFL Pick: Under 47 points -110 odds - NFL point spreads
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the “under”:

Is there any team in the league not living up to its potential more than the Houston Texans?

After plummeting from 5-3 to 5-6, and after last week’s collapse at home to the Colts, Houston is on the ropes.

Matt Schaub was 14-of-17 for 152 yards and a TD in the first half when the Texans led the Colts 20-7. He was 17-of-25 for 132 yards and a TD in the second half when the Texans were outscored 28-7. He threw two INT’s and lost his first fumble of the season. Andre Johnson should have caught a TD pass, and they settled for a FG.

They limited Peyton Manning to 244 yards, Reggie Wayne to three catches for 17 yards and Dallas Clark to an average of 7 yards a catch.

Keep in mind the total has gone “under” the posted number in six of Houston’s last eight overall and in four of its last five on the road.

On the other side of the field: The losses by Houston and Miami, plus Baltimore’s victory over Pittsburgh, means the Jaguars are tied for the second wildcard spot at 6-5 — one game ahead of Houston and Miami (the Jaguars’ next two opponents), the Jets and Titans.

With no margin for error, and with home field advantage, and behind a steady-dose of Maurice-Jones-Drew I expect Jacksonville to rebound from their last poor showing.

Remember, these teams always play each other tight; the total has gone under the posted number in four of Jacksonville’s last six games when playing at home against Houston.

Bottom line: Worth taking a look at the “under” in this situation.